Wuhan Coronavirus

[Badger52]

Where's that ammo truck when you need it? :munchinA man's gotta protect his toilet paper, right?

That Baltimore situation could get sporty; hope they have cooler heads than back when "give them space to riot" seemed to the plan.

[JJ_BPK]

That said, I'm content that we have closed before being ordered to do so. Staying open presents risks that are not worth the return on reputation. imho

My daughter's close friend runs a kid pre-school and party business. Has 12 staff and is attempting to do right by her staff, but its ruff getting the parents in the door.

My daughter is offering a free cake as an incentive for those that stay as customers.

My cake design suggestion for the give-a-way.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Every minute, every hour, all channels, all the time...Wuhan Coronavirus, COVID-19, Novel SARS-Cov-II, whatever they call today - THE SKY IS FALLING EVERYONE IS GONNA DIE!

In China it’s under control and fewer people everyday are becoming infected and fewer yet are dying. Or they are lying?

In Iran the death rate also seems to be tapering off. (Don’t trust them anymore than the Chinese)

In Italy a country with a very different medical system than any other first world country in the free world and an aging population was exposed to a deadly virus before anyone even knew a tourist most likely walked through every morning market and shook hands and kissed every cheek they could and continued on to the next village and the next until so many people were infected that it was a disaster.

The rest of the world including the United States have fewer than a few thousand known infected people out of billions. Let me say that again...fewer than a few thousand out of billions! And we know where the majority of them got infected.

I’m not seeing this doubling effect and the death rate statistics have not exploded as was feared three weeks to a month ago.

Should the elderly and those with pre-existing health issues stay home, stay away from strangers and order food to be delivered from a trusted source or relative you bet. Should medical staff take extra precautions and clean and disinfect more often between patients you bet!

Should a bunch of college age kids avoid going to a Spring Break drunk fest in Cancun Mexico or Padre Island and party like it’s 1999? I don’t see why not. Same goes for any healthy adult wanting to celebrate St. Paddy’s Day tomorrow.

Just don’t go home and hug grandma and grandpa because you might kill them.

The sky is not falling and every household in America probably had enough toilet paper before the riots in Costco boiled over.

Wash your hands with soap and water, cover your coughs and blow your noses in tissue paper that appears to have survived the toilet paper sell out craze.

This too shall pass!

Turn off the television - the sky is not falling. It’s all political and some of the usual actors are fanning the flames more than others.

If I’m wrong I will be the first to say so. JMHO.

[PSM]

Mein Gott

What's up with that? They sell Everclear. It's a disinfectant!

[Badger52]

What's up with that? They sell Everclear. It's a disinfectant!Exactly!!! And reduce enough boiled water & sugar and add bottle of peppermint extract it's downright medicinal!

[5thgrp"C"]

Don't even say the "V" word.

Close your eyes and imagine:

You just woke up and saw that multiple borders are closing, economies are crashing, and people are acting absurdly. For some reason they left most of the medicine and took all the toilet paper. You have no clue what's going on.

Lesson? It's not JUST what the virus will do, it's what everyone and everything around us will do because of the virus.

I can't see the virus but I can see our children missing the rest of their school year and athletic seasons. Justified or not, it IS happening. Don't worry so much about what started the stampede that you get run over by it.

[tonyz]

No immunity
No vaccine
No anti-virals
More contagious than influenza

Common sense suggests that for the moment this is a bit of a different beast.

[bowhunter]

Don't even say the "V" word.

Close your eyes and imagine:

You just woke up and saw that multiple borders are closing, economies are crashing, and people are acting absurdly. For some reason they left most of the medicine and took all the toilet paper. You have no clue what's going on.

Lesson? It's not JUST what the virus will do, it's what everyone and everything around us will do because of the virus.

I can't see the virus but I can see our children missing the rest of their school year and athletic seasons. Justified or not, it IS happening. Don't worry so much about what started the stampede that you get run over by it.


Sent PM

[mugwump]

You can whistle all you want but this is real. The Seattle experience:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238322250392039424.html

[mugwump]

So if you plow through the above, acute respiratory distress is a thing obviously but he describes patients responding reasonably well to respiratory therapy but going from needing O2 nasal cannula to NPPV to tube in 24 hours. Hypoxia is not intractable and patients seem to respond reasonably well and look to be out of the woods but then crash and die suddenly from shock and cardiac effects— ventricular fibrillation (VF) ventricular tachycardia (VT) and asystole.

The receptor sites whereby this virus gains entry are predominately in lungs, heart, and kidneys. The Chinese report cardiovascular damage and lung damage presumed permanent even in young patients.

It looks like cardiac involvement is a major killer

His mentions of lymphopenia are notable because it indicates immune suppression and is probably the source of the Chinese reporting covid as “a combo of AIDS and SARS”

[InTheBlack]

Amazon has said it wants to hire 100,000 warehouse & delivery. So that's where the food service people will go. Much better pay too.

[Flagg]

Amazon has said it wants to hire 100,000 warehouse & delivery. So that's where the food service people will go. Much better pay too.

Having worked at Amazon in the early days, a ratio that has existed for the 25 year history of the company is that for every 1 FTE hired by Amazon there has been roughly 3 FTE lost on Main Street.

An empirical-ish ratio that has lasted nearly 25 years.

Doesn’t mean Amazon shouldn’t grow, but there is a disconnect with disruptive companies destroying jobs faster than new ones are being created or The unemployed are being retrained.

So Amazon might be able to absorb 1/3, the other 2/3 will need a plan B.

Lambda School(online live software engineering course) is actually turning student debt burdened baristas into software developers with 4X income increases.

[Golf1echo]

This will surprise few here...



Beijing has, according to President Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro, already nationalized one American factory making medical masks. Moreover, Fox Business Network's Maria Bartiromo on air repeatedly said the Chinese forced at least one ship carrying masks, gloves, and other protective gear to the United States to return to China.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/15745/coronavirus-china-communism

[Ret10Echo]

On closing a restaurant due to COVID-19.

We were open this week end, operated at 80% capacity. We removed a table to allow for some distance between clients. They noticed that consideration. Everyone, including the staff were nervous, you could see it, how people stood apart, or waited until the door way was clear to enter/exit. Once seated they were cool.
Impact of closing is simple, everyone gets hurt. We will take care of our staff financially and with sharing our inventory.

That said, I'm content that we have closed before being ordered to do so. Staying open presents risks that are not worth the return on reputation. imho

Thanks for the insight Penn. I wish you the best through this.

[rsdengler]

I just found out that they are limiting our workforce in my location. It will be me and 2 other co-workers in our area who will have to report to work unless we hear otherwise. Looks like I'm in charge, I get to "hold down the fort"...LOL..My boss and the "higher" ups are going to be working from home. It's definitely going to be a "ghost town" for the next few weeks. Best thing about this, no traffic.....be safe out there and make sure you have a good stiff drink or two and yep, we will all pull through just nicely. :o

[Pete]

Was wondering about the self life of my # 10 cans of Mountain House foods for the Bird Flu dust up.

Checked - 30 years. So all you who stock piled back then and kept it in a good location are GTG.

[Ret10Echo]

I just found out that they are limiting our workforce in my location. It will be me and 2 other co-workers in our area who will have to report to work unless we hear otherwise. Looks like I'm in charge, I get to "hold down the fort"...LOL..My boss and the "higher" ups are going to be working from home. It's definitely going to be a "ghost town" for the next few weeks. Best thing about this, no traffic.....be safe out there and make sure you have a good stiff drink or two and yep, we will all pull through just nicely. :o

Just heard that a contractor that was in the HQ office last Thursday has tested positive. Organization is now trying to retrace path and determine who else came in contact with that individual.

Interesting times

[Badger52]

#1 son is an instructor at the nearby base I retired from in some advanced networking stuff. Original class for this week had 20 drops (I thought they should've had 100% drops due to travel ban). He still had 12 show up; from all over CONUS including east coast. He's nervous as shit; what happens when some commanders just decide "no matter what, this is 'Mission Essential' (so I make sure to get my dollars next year)."

Incredible.

[PSM]

My wife's friend walked across the MX border yesterday and was stopped by Mexican border agents, had her temp taken. They then had her disinfect her hands while they supervised before they would let her continue. Coming back . . . nothing. She asked the Customs guy why. He said that they're not authorized to. They couldn't even put out their own container of Purell.

[mugwump]

...Internet capacity and bandwidth demands (fixed fiber // wireless). Spring Break is providing a false lull but with an estimated 3 Million college students plus (potentially) state and local school districts expecting to transition to online environments how does that compete with business demands on network capacity during peak hours....not to mention all of the laid-off service industry workers that will most likely be doing something online whether streaming services or social media.

I’ve been dragged back in along with the other fossils. We use Webex/Zoom teleconferencing and yesterday/today have had major issues. It’s not just the internet overall, the conferencing sites are getting hammered.

Google “in vivo self-replicating mRNA vaccine” if we're gonna have a savior, that's it. Either that or zombies. There’s no animal testing, we're going straight from the test tube to humans.

If you think toilet paper was a debacle, imagine vaccine distribution with initial limited quantities. Still a year away, though.

[Ret10Echo]

Interesting



Jeff Stern Retweeted
Ralph Northam @GovernorVA 2h

I just issued an emergency order with @VDHCommissioner
to enforce Virginia's statewide ban of more than 10 patrons in restaurants, theaters, and fitness centers.

Please use common sense. If you were considering ignoring this limit—don't.

[InTheBlack]

Wanted to order some dishwashing liqud on Amazon. Available, but delivery times 2-3 weeks, by which time I wonder if the supply chain transportation might be broken down.

Might be time to join Prime.

[InTheBlack]

Were SARS & MERS also "zero immunity?" Were they "contained" & if so, why - geography low population density, or what?

[InTheBlack]

~4:20AM NBC news wonk says implied growth rate is 30% per day. So in 12 days, 104,000 cases if not reduced.

[WarriorDiplomat]

Wanted to order some dishwashing liqud on Amazon. Available, but delivery times 2-3 weeks, by which time I wonder if the supply chain transportation might be broken down.

Might be time to join Prime.

NO the supply chain is not broken they are backlogged along with the restrictions set by officials etc...but supply chains are up and running

[mugwump]

Were SARS & MERS also "zero immunity?" Were they "contained" & if so, why - geography low population density, or what?

No asymptomatic transmission. Huge difference. See a patient, isolate a patient vs massive explosion of illness as occult cases express symptoms.

SARS was a close run thing and it required extreme effort to eradicate. It led to Canadian laws that turn health care workers into virtual slaves.

[mugwump]

~4:20AM NBC news wonk says implied growth rate is 30% per day. So in 12 days, 104,000 cases if not reduced.

It’s been doing that since December nothing new. In cities doubling rate is 2-3 days, bit longer in the burbs, 6 days in the country. Pop density, %age of idiots, etc. all factor in.

[Ret10Echo]

%age of idiots,

Factor "I" hard to determine

[mugwump]

And other than correct morbidity/mortality stats pretty much everything else the Chinese docs told us was true.

Majority of xmission is via silent infections. True, though WHO and west argued against that for weeks.

This huge shock to the West in today’s reports that millennials are presenting in Italy/france with ground glass effusions and no other symptoms...we were warned in early Jan about that.

Now the french are wondering if these young patients will progress to full symptoms and upon recovery there'll be permanent damage. The Chinese docs said yes and yes 6 weeks ago.

There's been speculation for weeks that the HC system collapse in China led to younger patients being turned away and many many deaths at home.

The whole Confucian filial piety trip and revered status of elders in China led to reverse triage tactics vs Italy where you’re shunted to EOL ward if over 60.

When Wuhan had a brief warm spike it was said you could smell the city five miles downwind.

[mugwump]

Factor "I" hard to determine

When the history is written 'spring break' will stand alongside the Philadelphia parades during Spanish flu

[mugwump]

~4:20AM NBC news wonk says implied growth rate is 30% per day. So in 12 days, 104,000 cases if not reduced.

Speaking of 4:20, weed dispensaries are legit destinations along with pharmacies, groceries, etc in the 7 locked Cali counties

[Penn]

Astronomy Post 454

Numbers 1-4 would represent the Main Effort (regime survival), while numbers 5-7 would emerge as 2nd or 3rd order effects, predictable or not.

In aggregate, one way to look at possible origins for this bug, based upon a Cui Bono examination of events & outcomes.


What if 5-7 where considered and accepted as +positive outcomes by the Chinese. Since the release China has aggressively executed a PR campaign stating it was America who is responsible, also they have been very nimble marshaling MSM to their Non china Virus imaging. Additionally they have acted by turning around a ship loaded with Med equipment for the USA and the impact on markets.

Intentional release: warfare without the call to arms, but an act of war committed.

[tonyz]

Factor "I" hard to determine

Not in Flor-duh during Spring Break - many idiots - (thousands and thousands) - with new groups traveling in and out usually for a 6 week period or so.

Closing amusement parks, beaches and bars was a necessary step.

Let’s hope it was not too little too late.

[tonyz]

Astronomy Post 454

What if 5-7 where considered and accepted as +positive outcomes by the Chinese. Since the release China has aggressively executed a PR campaign stating it was America who is responsible, also they have been very nimble marshaling MSM to their Non china Virus imaging. Additionally they have acted by turning around a ship loaded with Med equipment for the USA and the impact on markets.

Intentional release: warfare without the call to arms, but an act of war committed.

China Virus is like a viral Pearl Harbor attack on the world only less kinetic but potentially much more devastating and less discriminating.

The sneak attack (by delay and downplay) was either intentional or grossly negligent.

The world should know that the invisible enemy would not be nearly as deadly with a strong heads up - all-hands-on-deck - warning by China in December.

There should be an aggressive bipartisan effort to incentivize bringing medical (and other) manufacturing back to North America from China.

[Surf n Turf]

Wanted to order some dishwashing liqud on Amazon. Available, but delivery times 2-3 weeks, by which time I wonder if the supply chain transportation might be broken down.

Might be time to join Prime.

Prime is still waiting 2-3 weeks. I think they slowed the entire trac down

SnT

[Badger52]

Prime is still waiting 2-3 weeks. I think they slowed the entire trac down

SnTMight be just the category of item. I just got my order for printer toner - 7 calendar days, non-Prime.

[JJ_BPK]

Might be just the category of item. I just got my order for printer toner - 7 calendar days, non-Prime.

In January I started playing with Amazon for my groceries.

Observations:

1)some good deals, they often have 2,3,4 units as a pack with good discounts. But they also have shills. Looked at peanut butter, typical 3.xxx for 32ox jar,, BUT 18.99 for a pack of three(6.33@) ??

2)they have three "stores" Prime, Fresh, & Pantry, free s&h if your order is over 35USD PER STORE... They also link other companies in your search, so you need to be careful or you will end with 3-4 different shopping carts, none with the limit.

3)they are short-handed. This popped early on. I get my cart ready and there are no delivery slots in my area, tray later. One order sat for 2 days waiting for a slot.

4)they are short on inventory. Fine with me but they don't have a "available inventory" filter. they will not let you order out of stock items but and a couple of times, by the time I got to check out the item was out

5)They have unmarked deals. I wanted some beans to make chili. Found Bush 0.99 limit 3 cans. I think their algorithm uses you search words to creat "deals" on the fly because if you go back the next day there are no deals for that item, but maybe for another of the same but different brand.

Anyway, VFOG holding tight in NOVA, hoping the nummy governor doesn't close the ABC stores :[

[Badger52]

... hoping the nummy governor doesn't close the ABC stores :[Always burrs on the blade when the gubmint is in the business of being in business.

[Ret10Echo]

Always burrs on the blade when the gubmint is in the business of being in business.

Also appears that states/commonwealths where the State runs the ABC's are generally off limits to online order and delivery of distilled spirits....

Maintain the monopoly

R10

[Ret10Echo]

EU is "urging" Netflix to only stream in SD to save bandwidth during the outbreak.

Smacks of the Net Neutrality shitstorm here in the U.S. Should government be able to preemptively force reductions on the internet and within networks that are recreational in order to keep work/business/schools going? Or should we just ride the horse until it dies?

[JJ_BPK]

EU is "urging" Netflix to only stream in SD to save bandwidth during the outbreak.

Smacks of the Net Neutrality shitstorm here in the U.S. Should government be able to preemptively force reductions on the internet and within networks that are recreational in order to keep work/business/schools going? Or should we just ride the horse until it dies?

Yes and No

My SIL was born in Naples, his dad and a bunch of relatives still live there. The kids live in London and go there several times a yr. They have marginal internet access. Many are still dial-up, but even the cable service is slow, wag, maybe 5 MIPS. They have an infrastructure problem :munchin

[Ret10Echo]

Dragging this further away from the Medical discussions....

HOLLIDAYSBURG, Pa. (WJAC) — Blair County Sheriff James Ott said Thursday he is suspending the processing of applications for license to carry permits to limit exposure of coronavirus in the Blair County Courthouse.

[mugwump]

EU is "urging" Netflix to only stream in SD to save bandwidth during the outbreak.

Smacks of the Net Neutrality shitstorm here in the U.S. Should government be able to preemptively force reductions on the internet and within networks that are recreational in order to keep work/business/schools going? Or should we just ride the horse until it dies?

No, it doesn’t smack of net neutrality and yes they should limit streaming services. I was on a conf call with approx 20 participants from around the world and we were constantly being interrupted by network stutters and voice breakups.

We're working on clinical trials of antiretrovirals and it’s a bit more important than streaming Bluey and The Mandelorian.

[Ret10Echo]

No, it doesn’t smack of net neutrality and yes they should limit streaming services. I was on a conf call with approx 20 participants from around the world and we were constantly being interrupted by network stutters and voice breakups.

We're working on clinical trials of antiretrovirals and it’s a bit more important than streaming Bluey and The Mandelorian.

Keep up the good work Mugwump!

I am not in disagreement.... Every ad or commercial for broadband is about gaming and entertainment not about real work.



Broadcast TV is still free.

[mugwump]

...it’s a bit more important than streaming Bluey and The Mandelorian.

Although my opinion might be radically different if I had three preschoolers at home like one of my nieces :)

[mugwump]

“So do we all agree that regulation is conterproductive? Good, we'll consider it invalid.”

The way that bullshit/time consuming regs are being ignored, circumvented or furloughed is amazing and encouraging. Whole phases of research programs are being whacked.

Informed consent statements that all subjects sign are clear regarding the risk but research centers are having no problem filling slots, even in “normal healthy” studies where it was decided to stop paying the volunteers on the premise that its unethical to pay for increased risk.

In Brussels they asked for 48 volunteers via advertisement, stated that animal testing had been skipped, and no pay for a 7 day in-house stay and they cut off enrollment after >400 people volunteered in the first hour.

Not everyone is a douchebag self-involved yolo spring-breaker.

My involvement is in studies that capture ambulatory 12-lead cardiac telemetry streams. We're still looking for safety problems, in my case QTc problems...cardiac... but simultaneously with actual patient treatment via compassionate protocols.

That’s freaking unheard of and whacks 6 mos off clinical decisions.

Vaccine is 12 mos out, everyone is desperate to find interim therapies.

Google “massive WHO study”

[mugwump]

And speaking of self-absorbed yolo millennials, expect a massive surge of infection in 10 days as they head home to kill their parents and neighbors

[Ret10Echo]

Pennsylvania Governor issues shut down directive for "non-life-sustaining-businesses" (https://www.bedfordgazette.com/ap/state/governor-orders-non-life-sustaining-businesses-to-shut-down/article_5149d007-8f80-5130-9d46-6d931b197c77.html#utm_source=bedfordgazette.com&utm_campaign=%2Fap%2Fstate%2Fgovernor-orders-non-life-sustaining-businesses-to-shut-down%2Farticle-5149d007-8f80-5130-9d46-6d931b197c77.html%3Fmode%3Demail%26-dc%3D1584653900&utm_medium=auto%20alert%20email&utm_content=read%20more)


HARRISBURG, Pa. (AP) — Gov. Tom Wolf is tightening his directives to businesses to shut down, issuing a dire warning and saying Thursday that all “non-life-sustaining” businesses in Pennsylvania must close their physical locations by 8 p.m. to slow the spread of the coronavirus.


I understand the intent...but for those business owners impacted, their BUSINESS sustains their life. Flatten the curve is the mantra. Let's see what happens.

“I had hoped for voluntary compliance so our public safety officials could focus on assisting with the crisis," Wolf said in a video statement. "Unfortunately we have not seen full compliance. We have no time to lose.”


PA had a big jump in cases today... Not surprising as more testing occurs. Trend thus far has been creep outward from the major metro areas of the East and the West to include those areas that are bedroom communities to major metro areas in adjoining states. Is there a hub and spoke pattern to be drawn between International Airports and infected counties?

BEER AND LIQUOR

The Pennsylvania Liquor Control Board began boarding up around two dozen of its now-closed wine and liquor stores that had a history of prior break-ins.

Stay Safe

Stay well

Avoid Idiots

[Ret10Echo]

And speaking of self-absorbed yolo millennials, expect a massive surge of infection in 10 days as they head home to kill their parents and neighbors

• A CDC study finds that nearly 40% of COVID-19 hospitalizations are younger than 54 years old.


But what's a college student care about statistics and information

[Old Dog New Trick]

It’s true...if you look for something you are more likely to find it. If you look more often in greater numbers you are likely to find more of it.

Conversely if you stop looking for something it’s very likely you will not find it. (China)

All be safe, wash hands often and don’t touch your face, and stay away from strangers if you can.

[Badger52]

I understand the intent...but for those business owners impacted, their BUSINESS sustains their life. Flatten the curve is the mantra. Let's see what happens. I looked pretty thoroughly at that list; pretty draconian if you didn't get the green-highlight in your category. As mugwump said, wait till their Philly & Pittsburgh flat-lined spring breakers get home and we'll get a taste of just how successful are attempts to legislate human behavior ('cause that's never been tried before).
:rolleyes:

[5thgrp"C"]

Things are getting mighty interesting.

NYC Mayor de Blasio is leading the way calling for active duty troops take charge of relief efforts. Continuity of government orders have been given. Definitely becoming more historic as the days go on.

[Old Dog New Trick]

I’m trying to handle the virus at home! Too dark to show beverages.

[mugwump]

Daughter's job: There are 96 HCWs confirmed positive or under 14 day mandatory quarantine, all chloroquine has been scooped up and put into the opiate safe at the main hosp, and they’ve been told to use scarves over their face when they run out of masks.

What could go wrong.

[Badger52]

Things are getting mighty interesting.
We just had the first 2 deaths (both male, 1 50's, 1 90's, travellers) other side of the state from me. They'd been part of the first number of cases reported. And 2 more cases announced the county over from me (both household contacts of the 2 recently announced). But those things are behavior triggers in the population; we'll see what tomorrow brings in the local populace. In a smaller just-above-completely-rural environment it's interesting to note the civility tendered vs. some of the conduct reported on the "if it bleeds it leads" news outlets.

Not as much fun as sitting outside the Kranzler with a beer watching the daytime Ku'damm traffic, but attention getting anyway.

[mugwump]

Buckle up badger, Madison is hotter than reported

[InTheBlack]

We're working on clinical trials of antiretrovirals and it’s a bit more important than streaming Bluey and The Mandelorian.

I bought Gilead today, just before the Pres Press Conference clarified that they make Remdisivir. Price when up from 80 to 82 in a couple minutes. I should check the close...

What other companies are in the running?

[InTheBlack]

PA is shutting down the newspapers when their stock of paper runs out? :
Printing & Related Support Activities NO
Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory publishers YES

So which are Target, Costco, etc ?
Department Stores NO
Other General Merchandise Stores YES

Private Households NO

[InTheBlack]

Story about a 5 year old w/confirmed case, and the effect on her school. Any stats on child cases by age?

[InTheBlack]

A man in my circle who delivers food products to Target, etc says the logistics are breaking down due to the hoarding. Walmart’s can’t keep their freezers filled and meat and frozen products are getting harder to get. Now filling their freezers with bagged ice in case of power outages.

Our grocery delivery today had to substitute canned veg for frozen; picker said all out of frozen stuff.

[InTheBlack]

First 12 patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States
Author: The COVID-19 Investigation Team
Corresponding author: Claire M. Midgley, PhD, MSc
9MAR20

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20032896v1.full.pdf

[T-Rock]

Well, I've been taken off the front line at our facility for running a low grade fever (& Flu like symptoms) after coming in contact with someone who was on the "Grand Princess" cruise. It's all kinda surreal. Should get results back in 3-5 days, but until then, my wife and I are on a 14 day holiday. We're stocked up on toilet paper and booze. Lol. Hopefully our tests will be negative so I can get back in the game, and not be a hindrance/burden to our Department. Send some prayers & happy thoughts our way if you don't mind.....

[InTheBlack]

T-Rock - let's hope you are going to be one of the first "Immunes" who have a mild case and don't need to worry about lack of PPE during the peak. Bless you & yours.

I see a tattoo coming...

[mugwump]

Well, I've been taken off the front line at our facility for running a low grade fever (& Flu like symptoms) after coming in contact with someone who was on the "Grand Princess" cruise. It's all kinda surreal. Should get results back in 3-5 days, but until then, my wife and I are on a 14 day holiday. We're stocked up on toilet paper and booze. Lol. Hopefully our tests will be negative so I can get back in the game, and not be a hindrance/burden to our Department. Send some prayers & happy thoughts our way if you don't mind.....

Gulp. The odds are greatly in your favor...but gulp. Must be really weird, we all have “half are gonna get it? I’ll be in the healthy half” kind of rationalizations to just keep walking around, but that makes it a bigger shock I think.

Well, hydrate and try to sleep. No ibuprofen because why risk it. Good luck and I’m sure you’ll let us know what’s up.

[Badger52]

Buckle up badger, Madison is hotter than reportedOh, understood. A Petri dish 100 mlles away.

[1stindoor]

A man in my circle who delivers food products to Target, etc says the logistics are breaking down due to the hoarding. Walmart’s can’t keep their freezers filled and meat and frozen products are getting harder to get. Now filling their freezers with bagged ice in case of power outages.

Our grocery delivery today had to substitute canned veg for frozen; picker said all out of frozen stuff.

We stopped by Walmart yesterday after work...it looked like a swarm of locusts had rolled through. Went this morning before work, bought ground beef, pork chops, eggs, and lunch meat. Most of the meat/dairy cases were full again.

[rsdengler]

We stopped by Walmart yesterday after work...it looked like a swarm of locusts had rolled through. Went this morning before work, bought ground beef, pork chops, eggs, and lunch meat. Most of the meat/dairy cases were full again.

Bet they still had "Vegan" Food....:p Yeah it's crazy, I have to be at work so the time I get off the shelves are picked through. But good thing, I can always find veggies and fruit, oh and of course Veggie Burgers. My staple food besides veg, fruit, coffee and cheese.......Luckily I'm stocked up on wine......:D Be Safe.....

[Ret10Echo]

Yes and No

My SIL was born in Naples, his dad and a bunch of relatives still live there. The kids live in London and go there several times a yr. They have marginal internet access. Many are still dial-up, but even the cable service is slow, wag, maybe 5 MIPS. They have an infrastructure problem :munchin

Wonder if this (http://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2020/03/20/netflix-and-*******-reduce-resolution-as-virus-hits-web)comes home to the U.S.?

Netflix and ******* will reduce the default image quality of streaming video in Europe to ease pressure on the internet, the firms said Friday, as demand soars with millions confined to their homes over coronavirus fears.

EU commissioner for the digital economy Thierry Breton urged internet giants to switch from high definition to the former standard definition to reduce file sizes while stranded householders seek entertainment as well as news about the epidemic.

Late Thursday, entertainment platform Netflix agreed, and on Friday Google's video-sharing service ******* said it would follow suit, although videos viewed on the site from a European connection on Friday by AFP were still defaulting to high definition mode.

[JJ_BPK]

Wonder if this (http://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2020/03/20/netflix-and-*******-reduce-resolution-as-virus-hits-web)comes home to the U.S.?

Would not be surprised to hear MIPS tweaking is the default operating procedure for internet providers in most of the world. Tweaking is a powerful tool to manage the loads on their server farms.

Same with phone companies.

[GratefulCitizen]

Observations from a UPS feeder driver (tractor-trailers).

Had a freakishly large surge of pickups early in the week from the pet food factory in Flagstaff.
Usually averages around 450 boxes per day, but was around 1500 on Monday, 1200 on Tuesday, and tapered down to a little over 300 last night.

Fulfilled by Amazon, and they're pretty fast getting that stuff into our system.
The hub in Goodyear wasn't abnormally busy early in the week, but picked up towards the end of the week (not normal) as slower shippers got their stuff in the system.

Seeing more rigs on the road at night than is normal for this time of year, and significantly more grocery store trucks.
The supply chain is catching up to the demand surge.

The craziness should start abating in a week or two when people realize that the stores keep getting restocked.
There aren't any shortages, just limits in the speed of restock.

Got a general message from my manager today.
UPS has been classified as a Critical Infrastructure Industry by DHS, so we're supposed to keep working everywhere.

The nature of what the package drivers do pretty much guarantees some of them will catch it (a former coworker in package has been delivering into a hot zone for the last week).
From the package drivers it will spread to the hub workers, and then eventually to the feeder drivers.

The package drivers tend to be in very good health and under the age of 50 while the hub workers are mostly in their 20s and 30s, so most of them should be fine.
A little worried about my department, as many of the drivers are in their 50s, 60s, and older, with many of those in not the best health.

There's effectively nothing being done by UPS to protect workers from infection.
Realistically, there's not much which can be done.

Hopefully this problem will start coming under control before it sweeps through our system.

[Badger52]

Hopefully this problem will start coming under control before it sweeps through our system.Strong hopes for that as well (and for you). Logistics tanking is a killer. Besides, I have an affinity for 'Brown' - as they are the carrier in my AO that simply rocks it & makes the others look like amateurs.

[Ret10Echo]

Recent notice others may have already seen....


Seems those that were not prepared for such an occurrence are finding doors slamming shut by the hour.

Stay safe out there.

[Research_Guy]

Hopefully this problem will start coming under control before it sweeps through our system.

As the son of a 40 year UPS package driver, I wish you and all of your colleagues great fortune and good health.

May God bless and protect all the great men and women who keep this awesome nation of ours chugging along.

Best Regards,
K

[PSM]

Americans are used to natural disasters like hurricanes and earthquakes where the supply chain is interrupted by infrastructure damage. This is all new to us. The problem is (or will be) that those that are hoarding now won't just stash the TP and can goods away but use them until their stash is depleted. That puts them right back where they started from, unprepared.

[Penn]

You can not eat or shoot TP, that fact should drive a rational persons decision process.

[WarriorDiplomat]

So I find the virus concern is real but not near the concern the media and public officials trying to avoid political suicide are acting like.

The media has distorted the facts which are unknown and certainly not complete or absolute at this time much like the flu where many people do not go to the doctor are not reported....as a poor kid with 8 bros and sisters we never went to a doctor for anything that did not require hospitalization....in fact I knew no other kids within my socioeconomic group who went to a doctor outside of the same deal. America still has a ton of people who rarely if ever go tot he Dr for a flu or cold. It does not take a mathematician to understand that their must always be all the information available to call a statistic a fact. The current statistics are based off known information but the actual death rate may be much lower than many other illnesses given the lack of testing to confirm the totality of the spread.

The real concern here is the irresponsible reporting and reactions by sheeple that is causing a panic that is on the verge of becoming epic. According to most of the Coronaviruses as in the common cold and others and what is seen already by scientist of 19 is it is vulnerable to heat like many viruses. So when the POTUS in a simplified way stated the comment that summer was coming and the virus would go away is not entirely wrong. The common sense should tell us that if science says heat destroys it and it can live in freezing environments that this strain will survive...hopefully everybody understands the hemispheres and the planetary changes through the 365 day cycle means their are summers, springs, falls and winters somewhere all year round hence this will survive like the flu the common cold and the plethora of other germs, viruses etc....around the globe.

The irony is the Chinese did not have 1 not 2 but 8 vaccines in short order post Wuhan spread.....hmmmm all those years we trained for NBC scenarios only to nearly abandon the concern when 9/11 happened instead focusing a top tier superpower military on fighting cavemen in sandals and RPG's in a third world country a far less sophisticated opponent....we took our military backward and even nearly eliminated our heavy capability when Obama decided to deactivate the Tankers in Europe and leave them to fend for themse......BTW GREAT IDEA BHO....surprise the Russians took that Uranium they got from good old Hillary did I mention it was American Uranium? and once again brought the old red Army aggression back.....damn near brings a tear to my eyes. And decided to take Crimea back and once again harkening back to Hitlers Germany war machine concerns decided to hold the oil and natural gas of Europe hostage once again. I digress......while all this was happening the Chinese dug in like Alabama ticks in Africa building infrastructure to get those darn natural resources seemed to be playing with the NBC idea in a way the Biological anyway and it seems ironic that the virus got out so quickly and they had again lets count not 1 not 2 nor 3....4,5,6,7 they had 8 solutions....seems awfully convenient such few cases have been reported on the continent given how deficient the healthcare system, and nutritional issues amongst other issues that has compromised the health and immunities there.

Now just curious if anyone honestly believes the Chinese government just had to deal with an unexpected outbreak the "sum ting wong" virus hit? or is it possible they were playing with the biological warfare side somewhat and it accidently got out before they could treat it.....OR....they intentionally turned it loose and had a surprisingly positive (for China) effect on western civilization.....strange how common westerners are terrified and more concerned with toilet paper for a cold/flue type virus than the economy....how many are buying cheap stock? are the Chinese????? no matter how this turns out I am curious and may be placing bets on how this affects civilization how we know it.....in the words of FDR there is nothing to fear but fear itself

[Penn]

WD, from Post 86th of this thread, discounted, imho, because no-one at that point wanted to confront the Chinese. Make no mistake they are our enemy, they have 1.3 billion people to feed. To survive they must expand.


Hell of a test run for an antidote, by the very same people who created the killer virus and then, lets save the world.


edit to add: from day one I have been prejudice towards China, but with good reason. I have had two staffs front and back of the house, they are RUTHLESS with each other, and particularly with not Chinese.

[WarriorDiplomat]

WD, from Post 86th of this thread, discounted, imho, because no-one at that point wanted to confront the Chinese. Make no mistake they are our enemy, they have 1.3 billion people to feed. To survive they must expand.




edit to add: from day one I have been prejudice towards China, but with good reason. I have had two staffs front and back of the house, they are RUTHLESS with each other, and particularly with not Chinese.

I have skipped over while speed reading threads but good to see we are on the same page......all the breadcrumbs lead right back to an intentional or possibly unintentional outbreak.....when the Dr who first reported it dies after being ignored then it seems silenced by the government it smells of something fishy

[Penn]

WD, yes. That said, moving forward the triangle of Russia, China and Iran as a PR front, speaks to me as intention. That held, every move, action, deflection since day one hits my nerve center as conjoined. Mind you, I am far outside my lane, but have posses an uncanny ability to recognize macro human behavior based on my training in organizational dynamics.

[Ret10Echo]

You can not eat or shoot TP, that fact should drive a rational persons decision process.

Ok folks... Quote of the week

[PSM]

...or possibly unintentional outbreak

I'm going with that. The first rule of NBC warfare is "don't nuke yourself". Still, of the 3, bio, as far as I know, is the most uncontrollable. I would think that you'd want a deadly but short lived disease so that you could quickly occupy the battlefield. In some ways this fits that description, but it's not very troubling to fit young military aged men. In that sense it doesn't seem to be a very good weapon.

[InTheBlack]

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm

"By comparing the available genome sequence data for known coronavirus strains, we can firmly determine that SARS-CoV-2 originated through natural processes," said Kristian Andersen, PhD, an associate professor of immunology and microbiology at Scripps Research and corresponding author on the paper.

In addition to Andersen, authors on the paper, "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2," include Robert F. Garry, of Tulane University; Edward Holmes, of the University of Sydney; Andrew Rambaut, of University of Edinburgh; W. Ian Lipkin, of Columbia University.
...

The scientists analyzed the genetic template for spike proteins, armatures on the outside of the virus that it uses to grab and penetrate the outer walls of human and animal cells. More specifically, they focused on two important features of the spike protein: the receptor-binding domain (RBD), a kind of grappling hook that grips onto host cells, and the cleavage site, a molecular can opener that allows the virus to crack open and enter host cells.

Evidence for natural evolution

The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.

This evidence for natural evolution was supported by data on SARS-CoV-2's backbone -- its overall molecular structure. If someone were seeking to engineer a new coronavirus as a pathogen, they would have constructed it from the backbone of a virus known to cause illness. But the scientists found that the SARS-CoV-2 backbone differed substantially from those of already known coronaviruses and mostly resembled related viruses found in bats and pangolins.
snip

[InTheBlack]

Chinese did not have 1 not 2 but 8 vaccines in short order post Wuhan spread

Huh? Where did you read about them having ANY vaccines in use?

[Trapper John]

I have skipped over while speed reading threads but good to see we are on the same page......all the breadcrumbs lead right back to an intentional or possibly unintentional outbreak.....when the Dr who first reported it dies after being ignored then it seems silenced by the government it smells of something fishy

I thought you'd see this as intentional, but was wondering where you were hiding? :eek:

[JJ_BPK]

You can not eat or shoot TP, that fact should drive a rational persons decision process.

Penn
Sorry, 1/2 correct, you can.. :p

[Penn]

ITB
The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.


Which would be a point of departure using the inherent qualities of COV-2 as a base on which to create a new novel virus that capitalizes the “effective binding to human cells” that COV-2 exhibited.
It would be an immediate point of interest to any Bio-weapons researcher. In that sense, imo, intentionally constructed and released.

[JJ_BPK]

Received from a friend in Hong Kong.

A lot of statics, no idea of the legitimacy of the source.



Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
Tomas Pueyo, Mar 19

caveat emptor: Anyone can publish on Medium per our Policies, but we don’t fact-check every story. For more info about the coronavirus, see cdc.gov.



The Auther: Tomas Pueyo

2 MSc in Engineering. Stanford MBA. Ex-Consultant. Creator of viral applications with >20M users. Currently leading a billion-dollar business @ Course Hero

This article follows Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, an article with over 40 million views translated into over 30 languages describing the urgency of the Coronavirus problem. If you agree with this article, consider signing the corresponding White House petition. Translations available in 6 languages at the bottom.

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: “This coronavirus thing is not a big deal” to declaring the state of emergency. Yet many countries are still not doing much. Why?

Every country is asking the same question: How should we respond? The answer is not obvious to them.

Some countries, like France, Spain or Philippines, have since ordered heavy lockdowns. Others, like the US, UK, Switzerland or Netherlands, have dragged their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures.

Here’s what we’re going to cover today, again with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

What’s the current situation?
What options do we have?
What’s the one thing that matters now: Time
What does a good coronavirus strategy look like?
How should we think about the economic and social impacts?

When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

Our healthcare system is already collapsing.
Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions.
And that might not even eliminate further waves of infections.
If we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths.
We will relieve our healthcare system.
We will prepare better.
We will learn.
The world has never learned as fast about anything, ever.
And we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
All of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time.



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

[Badger52]

As a brief counterpoint to JJ's interesting & candid link, this 'dry' humor, seen in front of an attraction down in Wisconsin Dells, a major regional recreation/hotel-conference/camping destination, currently taking it in the shorts like everyone else.

[mugwump]

The epidemiology of this virus is established. ROK answered any remaining questions with their extensive testing program. Fear is not getting ahead of the data. It’s being driven by it.

Best case scenario is 1% CFR and that requires an intact HC system. So, 10x worse than a bad seasonal flu. ROK, Taiwan, Singapore will achieve that unless the wheels fall off. The rest of the world, no hope of a CFR that low.

330,000,000 * 40% attack rate * 1% CFR = 1,320,000 deaths in the US.

Note that is the lowest attack rate (40%-70% per Harvard health, 55% per Johns Hopkins, 60% in UK and Germany for their modeling) and the best case CFR. I think we'll see double that number of deaths.

Wuhan CFR was about 5.8%. Italy is in chaos and is 8.5% but their denominator is suspect and it’s probably 5%. Spain, France will follow that trend. Germany and the UK are unknowns.

Taiwan, Hong king, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Phillipines are all in warm latitudes and they are seeing cases. Don’t hang your hat on warm weather to stop this.

That said, I expect a late May to mid June peak for this wave. Summer lull by August, then a larger main peak in late November. That will be the big one as NPI measures are seen to be too tough and fatigue sets in. Then a final smaller wave March April 2021. Then small bumps like aftershocks.

This will be an 18 month acute phase, then endemic thereafter. Combined flu/covid annual CFR will be 0.4ish, four times a historical bad flu year. We'll need more ICU beds.

There is no Chinese vaccine. This started in late October and lied about it, it would be shocking if they didn’t have multiple candidates in play. But they have nothing. They’d tout it, social media leaks would report it, satellite would see preps for distribution.

France/Germany/UK are seeing riots and steamroll thefts of liquor and food now with their multicultural brethren. Imagine last-mile vaccine deployment in that environment.

That Nature article saying “natural virus” is CCP propaganda. I believe this was released due to negligence but I also believe it’s the result of enhancement research. Can’t be proven either way and that’s a hard fact unless someone talks.

We will have no vaccine that mere mortals will see for 18 months. Antiviral therapy is slightly better track, but if chloroquine/zinc doesn't work the other candidates are looking at serious supply chain constraints.

I too fear for the economy, imposition of unconstitutional civil “management” measures and a host of other issues. But when those gazillion gen Z mouth breathing spring breakers return home...5 day avg incubation, 20 day average course until death, their parents and grandparents will start dying in late April and then the jig will be up.

[Badger52]

That Nature article saying “natural virus” is CCP propaganda.That exact phrasing is currently in wide use from many of the media who get their talking points from the Party (regardless of physical location of their office HQ). "natural phenomenon" virus created by nature" etc., ad nauseum.

[GratefulCitizen]

A bit sensationalized, but generally accurate.
Only a matter of time before it sweeps though the UPS system:

We'll keep the supply chain running so others can isolate for as long as it takes.
Hopefully, it will buy enough time to minimize the damage.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/21/terrified-package-delivery-employees-are-going-to-work-sick/

[mugwump]

I have relatives or good friends working in hospitals in Modesto, Denver, Madison, New Haven, Brussels, Cambridge. They are all out of PPE or less than 2 days away. Denver and Madison are begging for sewing circles to make cloth masks. The others will follow suit when they get over the embarrassment.

I’m bringing all my remaining PPE to Madison tomorrow...400 masks is about a ten minute supply. They’re working with scarves over their faces.

Scarves.

[mugwump]

A bit sensationalized, but generally accurate.
Only a matter of time before it sweeps though the UPS system:

We'll keep the supply chain running so others can isolate for as long as it takes.
Hopefully, it will buy enough time to minimize the damage.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/21/terrified-package-delivery-employees-are-going-to-work-sick/

Point to one single statement that that I’ve sensationalized

[GratefulCitizen]

Point to one single statement that that I’ve sensationalized

I was referring to the article linked in my post.
I was not referring to your post or anyone else's

[mugwump]

Good summary. Latest symptoms, including GI

https://www.msn.com/en-us/Health/coronavirus/what-covid-19-symptoms-look-like-day-by-day/vi-BB11pWbr?ocid=sf

[mugwump]

I was referring to the article linked in my post.
I was not referring to your post or anyone else's

Sorry getting touchy, you’re always solid.

I'd just got off the phone with an idiot administrator who says they won’t take individually wrapped, completely labeled 3M N95 masks unless they’re in their original box. Of course I’d taken them out of boxes and into Tupperware tubs years ago, they take up so much room otherwise.

Sorry again, I’m pissed at the world atm and testy. Scared for my kids

[Ret10Echo]

Sorry getting touchy, you’re always solid.

I'd just got off the phone with an idiot administrator who says they won’t take individually wrapped, completely labeled 3M N95 masks unless they’re in their original box. Of course I’d taken them out of boxes and into Tupperware tubs years ago, they take up so much room otherwise.

Sorry again, I’m pissed at the world atm and testy. Scared for my kids

Had a Fed office that is shutting down....staff going through things before shutting off the lights and find a PILE of PPE in a closet. Suggestion is made to donate to the local Hospitals and Responders. Supervisor told them 'NO' ....

Really?

:mad:

[mugwump]

Had a Fed office that is shutting down....staff going through things before shutting off the lights and find a PILE of PPE in a closet. Suggestion is made to donate to the local Hospitals and Responders. Supervisor told them 'NO' ....

Really?

:mad:

:mad::mad::mad:

I’ve been calling all the trades businesses, tell them the problem, they say I’ll get back to you, and they do. Many have protective gear. Got good hits at a window manufacturer and a commercial door company, over 1500 n95 masks and some face shields.

I’ve given up on HC management, it’s all going straight to the wards.

[WarriorDiplomat]

I thought you'd see this as intentional, but was wondering where you were hiding? :eek:

As you know my friend the Chinese and Russians sponsored much of the interrogation techniques used in Vietnam and Korea and used the techniques to gage U.S. and western in general resiliency....I remember reading the Cuban experiment on there much smaller but extremely brutal version...the axis powers have been studying us like we have studied them but it is western civilization that today thanks to socialist ideology that has the shaky foundation....I think the Chinese are having high level behind closed door discussions on strategy for what they do next...buy all the stocks they can, sponsor the Democrat candidate (maybe not this year but soon....how do they move forward and exploit this opportunity? The next few moves on the risk game board could determine who THE superpower will be...notice I said singularly THE not plural. Hey these leftists wanted globalism a one world government well??????

I honest to god think they accidently stumbled across reaction and were not prepared for how extreme western civilization has responded and the political pressure placed on every elected official to CYA and initiate extreme government procedures to control the new plague. This is the golden hour for them if they want it the opportunity is there.....I will leave the science to non political scientist not media or politics I am looking at the geo-political impact of the global economy and what it is saying to us who think in that realm

What is funny is those of us who experienced in our youth the more normal American way of life where kids spent all day outside, getting dirty stepping on nails getting into rocks fights and playing with everyone in the neighborhood...getting sick....getting exposed to germs building strong immunities. This is pre unnatural fear of germs that began perhaps with the spread of AID's and associated sensationalism that has turned our nation into a society of fearful people.....Yes disease spread being controlled through hygiene practices because we have the resources to do so separates us from third world nations but our magnificent collection of people from around the world the greatest social experiment on the planet....has given us access to exposure and adaption to germs from all over the world.....but it is irrational fear that has frozen mankind

What do you think?

[Flagg]

As you know my friend the Chinese and Russians sponsored much of the interrogation techniques used in Vietnam and Korea and used the techniques to gage U.S. and western in general resiliency....I remember reading the Cuban experiment on there much smaller but extremely brutal version...the axis powers have been studying us like we have studied them but it is western civilization that today thanks to socialist ideology that has the shaky foundation....I think the Chinese are having high level behind closed door discussions on strategy for what they do next...buy all the stocks they can, sponsor the Democrat candidate (maybe not this year but soon....how do they move forward and exploit this opportunity? The next few moves on the risk game board could determine who THE superpower will be...notice I said singularly THE not plural. Hey these leftists wanted globalism a one world government well??????

I honest to god think they accidently stumbled across reaction and were not prepared for how extreme western civilization has responded and the political pressure placed on every elected official to CYA and initiate extreme government procedures to control the new plague. This is the golden hour for them if they want it the opportunity is there.....I will leave the science to non political scientist not media or politics I am looking at the geo-political impact of the global economy and what it is saying to us who think in that realm

What is funny is those of us who experienced in our youth the more normal American way of life where kids spent all day outside, getting dirty stepping on nails getting into rocks fights and playing with everyone in the neighborhood...getting sick....getting exposed to germs building strong immunities. This is pre unnatural fear of germs that began perhaps with the spread of AID's and associated sensationalism that has turned our nation into a society of fearful people.....Yes disease spread being controlled through hygiene practices because we have the resources to do so separates us from third world nations but our magnificent collection of people from around the world the greatest social experiment on the planet....has given us access to exposure and adaption to germs from all over the world.....but it is irrational fear that has frozen mankind

What do you think?

I think we don’t need to worry about the US Dollar being kneecapped anytime in the short-to-medium term.

It’s the least bad option of US Dollar, Euro(fragile), Yuan(not trusted).

If the US prints too much and screws foreign dollar/T Bill holders it could really hurt the US Dollar.

The Chinese Digital Yuan is on hold right now(due to COVID), but will relentlessly continue.

If China successfully exports a triad of:

WeChat(100% market share in China)
Associated Surveillance(make 3rd world gov’ts “moderators” and retain “admin”)
Digital Yuan(nudge US dollar out of developing world for platform transactions)

Then the US will have some big problems down the track, but it would likely take 10-20 years to really bite.

More short-term, OPEC ceased to exist in anything but name recently.

It’s like a return of the 80’s Oil Glut.

That led directly to collapse of the Soviet Union and invasion of Kuwait in half a decade.

Russia and Iran now have well aligned foreign policy interests(raise energy prices) that will likely include unconventional activities to achieve that desired endstate.

High cost of energy production nations will be screaming in pain and likely leading to disruption.

I could imagine Russia/Iran nexus loosing collaborating on intimidating/kneecapping competitor energy producers.

China and the US/west have short term alignment on the recovery tailwind low energy prices offer.

This sounds weird, but it is in the best interest of US/China to work together to mitigate against Russia/Iran causing mischief, especially with Saudi Arabia(e them being a bunch of turds) and to a lesser extend with other producers at risk of disruption like Libya, Algeria, Angola, and Venezuela.

I suspect SF may be busier this decade than any decade prior in terms of C-UW.

I completely agree that mental and social resilience is required.

However, we need to knock down the viral waves enough to get on with things.

The concept of risk/loss aversion in behavioural economics is critically important here. It is a very powerful behavioural construct that must be broken, with high perceived competence, reputation, and trust.

Broadly bifurcated partisanship in the US is a huge headwind to this.

The western “plane” is at low altitude(interest rates), low airspeed(economic activity) with the need to restart engines and regain economic lift and altitude.

I actually think the following 3 concepts are critical:

1)crew/cockpit resource management(CRM), think Tom Hanks as Sully

2)OODA loop by John Boyd

3)Principles of a gunfight

All are important

1) keep it simple stupid and solve the problem(S)

2) we need to observe, orient, decide, and act faster than before(and keep cycling). Velocity matters.

3) shoot first, shoot last, don’t target fixate, cycle to the next target, repeat

[Badger52]

I’m bringing all my remaining PPE to Madison tomorrow...400 masks is about a ten minute supply. They’re working with scarves over their faces.

Scarves.Safe journey.

[InTheBlack]

ITB

Which would be a point of departure using the inherent qualities of COV-2 as a base on which to create a new novel virus that capitalizes the “effective binding to human cells” that COV-2 exhibited.
It would be an immediate point of interest to any Bio-weapons researcher. In that sense, imo, intentionally constructed and released.

The Scripps experts are saying that it is SO GOOD that humans could not reasonably have designed it. Do you think the Scripps people have any reason NOT to be truthful about any data indicating human design?

[InTheBlack]

The geopolitics is a necessary discussion, but can it be a new thread? Let's reserve this one for the medical data & self-preservation actions we need to take.

Not sure if I can still "safely" go to the store to get something, if I think I might need it in the next month. Can't really project further than that, stores ought to be closed in a month anyway.

I consider my wife at risk not only for over 60, but she had a collapsed lung w/ chest tube - 30 years ago, car accident. Lots of fractures in her ribs (flail injuries) so now I notice she breaths shallowly when at rest. OTOH she does lots of aerobics & runs. History of unstoppable coughing with chest colds, but has not had one for... decades?

[Penn]

ITB
The Scripps experts are saying that it is SO GOOD that humans could not reasonably have designed it. Do you think the Scripps people have any reason NOT to be truthful about any data indicating human design?

Your deflection does not address the issue.

Apparently, COV2 has a wonderful ability to attach to human cells. If Bio-weapons experts understands the importance of that unique trait, why would they not investigate and seek to enhance that wonderful killer, making it even more ruthlessly indiscriminating?

And further, what makes you think that a breakthrough may not have occurred? Primates are known tool makers, Homo Sapiens particular so. Removing that possibility of altering a pathogen is shortsighted.

[WarriorDiplomat]

The Scripps experts are saying that it is SO GOOD that humans could not reasonably have designed it. Do you think the Scripps people have any reason NOT to be truthful about any data indicating human design?

Humans do not have to invent any disease and that is not how we think at least the GB's that I grew up admiring and served with but.....they would research it and if they see it is capable of infecting humans etc.....they then begin testing as the potential for a bio weapon and simultaneously develop a treatment they could control which would give them the on and off switch for it......all they had to do was research its properties and behaviors and perhaps help its binding properties along to evolve its contagious nature and there you could potentially have it.

You must understand that the people whom are members of this board spent some of us our entire careers in the world of shadows and knowing things that some would call conspiracies as facts. Some here just wanted to shoot people in the face but myself the geopolitics and shadowy conspiracies many times reveals the underlying causes was the intellectual challenge I sought. The overkill of fear around the world smells of the opportunity nations enemies are salivating over....are people sick and some dying? yes of course it would not have an effect if it had no effect but is ot as dramatic as the media and the politically motivated responses around the world??? No the real issue is not survivability it seems it is for our nation exposure of poorer hygiene habits than we thought we had....so where else are we weak and what will the outcome of this be for western civilization?

[InTheBlack]

ITB


Your deflection does not address the issue.

Apparently, COV2 has a wonderful ability to attach to human cells. If Bio-weapons experts understands the importance of that unique trait, why would they not investigate and seek to enhance that wonderful killer, making it even more ruthlessly indiscriminating?

And further, what makes you think that a breakthrough may not have occurred? Primates are known tool makers, Homo Sapiens particular so. Removing that possibility of altering a pathogen is shortsighted.

I'm weighing the two possibilities. Humans can back-calculate and postulate how something could be designed, by nature or humans -- but it still might be beyond human capability to actually DO it.

Would a human engineered virus have some "fingerprints?" -- if so the Scripps people looked found nothing.

Of course our people at Ft Detrick are probably way ahead of everyone, and they are not going to say, yet.

I do agree that China has an advantage -- they are in the restart phase of their economy, and in a position to sell to the whole world. So speculation on origins makes no difference to the geopolitics.

For future, the Feds should create warehouse space in which companies can stockpile emergency goods without paying rent or inventory tax. When needed, Govt pays usual price plus markup based on how long the goods have been idle instead of being sold immediately (ie lost opportunity costs). No price gouging.

EDIT: also a means for companies to have idle manufacturing equipment, or design for quick changeover -- without paying extra tax etc on it.

[Penn]

ITB
So speculation on origins makes no difference to the geopolitics.

There is no speculation on origin. The Wahun Virus is Chinese in Origin. That is not a racist statement, but a geographical fact.

[WarriorDiplomat]

I'm weighing the two possibilities. Humans can back-calculate and postulate how something could be designed, by nature or humans -- but it still might be beyond human capability to actually DO it.

There is an in between option you have ignored now and that is the fact that humans can study a virus not yet infecting large groups of people and simply help it spread under the ideal conditions...again the Chinese did not have 1 not 2 but 8 solutions to deal with it in next to no time perhaps even before it left there borders.

Would a human engineered virus have some "fingerprints?" -- if so the Scripps people looked found nothing.

If the Scripps people were looking for indicators of an abnormal biology that suggests laboratory interference then of course there would be some unusual pathologies however again see the above.


Of course our people at Ft Detrick are probably way ahead of everyone, and they are not going to say, yet.

I do agree that China has an advantage -- they are in the restart phase of their economy, and in a position to sell to the whole world. So speculation on origins makes no difference to the geopolitics.

It absolutely does make a difference and has many implications one being the shift of world power and ideology based off hyper fearful overreactions....the vehicle that will relieve us of the responsibility of freedom as we know may have arrived in the form of a virus released by the Chinese.

For future, the Feds should create warehouse space in which companies can stockpile emergency goods without paying rent or inventory tax. When needed, Govt pays usual price plus markup based on how long the goods have been idle instead of being sold immediately (ie lost opportunity costs). No price gouging.

EDIT: also a means for companies to have idle manufacturing equipment, or design for quick changeover -- without paying extra tax etc on it.

Not in a million years should the Feds be responsible for storage of goods to counter price gouging.....this is counter to the freedom of choice we value and the repercussions that follow.....asking the Feds should step in is suggesting socialism style price controls not central banking sophistication

At this point I need to ask what your actual background is besides a degreed science background and what you are hoping to learn from this site which has Doctors of the sciences Phd's, Lawyers, Physicians(Medical Doctors) on this site reading and sharing perspective.....I am trying to understand after reading your posts exactly what your objective is here because thus far it sounds like fear mongering to some.

[InTheBlack]

ITB


There is no speculation on origin. The Wahun Virus is Chinese in Origin. That is not a racist statement, but a geographical fact.

You are changing the subject - human made vs natural.

[WarriorDiplomat]

You are changing the subject - human made vs natural.


Who are you and what is your background?

[Penn]

ITB,
We would like you to explain the following, based on this simple fact. You joined in 2006/7. In all that time you have only participated in two threads exclusively, the Pandemic thread and this one. That is unusual in the extreme, especially in that you have interest or are a NRA...Yet, no firearm post, ammo questions, or other varied interest that every other member of this board does.
Additionally, it was interesting to note the FONT issue you had, and how quickly you dropped it once I called you on it.
You have the undivided attention of the board, please proceed.

[Paslode]

The Scripps experts are saying that it is SO GOOD that humans could not reasonably have designed it. Do you think the Scripps people have any reason NOT to be truthful about any data indicating human design?

Have there been any other findings that add credibility to or substantiate the Scripps experts claim?

Money and ideology is often a motivating factor to mislead or lie, examples of this can be found in tobacco and environmental studies, and US politics. People and groups lie, cheat and steal to get grants and funding.

[InTheBlack]

Not in a million years should the Feds be responsible for storage of goods to counter price gouging.....this is counter to the freedom of choice we value and the repercussions that follow.....asking the Feds should step in is suggesting socialism style price controls not central banking sophistication

At this point I need to ask what your actual background is besides a degreed science background and what you are hoping to learn from this site which has Doctors of the sciences Phd's, Lawyers, Physicians(Medical Doctors) on this site reading and sharing perspective.....I am trying to understand after reading your posts exactly what your objective is here because thus far it sounds like fear mongering to some.

IMO the fear mongering is from people who say "Its 1) a deliberate release of a virus 2) designed for biowarfare" without scientific evidence. That has no relevence to how we stop it. It distracts from that. Ft Detrick does or will know. If so, disclosure needs to be made at the right time (or never), for maximum benefit to the US. Maybe tomorrow there will be a coordinated nuke strike on China. Or suddenly a trade deal very favorable to the US, and China retracts their claims to the South China Sea.

If there were adequate stockpiles of PPC then we would be way ahead of this situation. No business can afford to have that much stuff stockpiled, it needs to be a national stockpile but the national stockpile is not large enough -someone said 12M N95 and 40M surgical masks IIRC. My suggestion avoids spending tax money for stuff unless it is actually required. Every company can participate if it wants to, so no advantage to huge companies vs mom & pop. Better than having to use the Stafford Act to seize control of private companies (totalitarian arguably worse than socialist).

I have a degree in Biology with a specialty in Health Physics, and a degree in Environmental science. I ran the radiological respiratory protection program at a nuke plant. I was on National Institute of Science & Technology (NIST) subcommittees creating lead paint abatement standards. I spend time tracking down the primary research articles & ask questions about what I find.

So far I have a Scripps report, subject to peer review; versus various gut feelings.

Maybe someone will discredit the study by demonstrating that their data was manipulated by China.

[Penn]

Answer the questions that have been present to you.

[InTheBlack]

ITB,
We would like you to explain the following, based on this simple fact. You joined in 2006/7. In all that time you have only participated in two threads exclusively, the Pandemic thread and this one. That is unusual in the extreme, especially in that you have interest or are a NRA...Yet, no firearm post, ammo questions, or other varied interest that every other member of this board does.
Additionally, it was interesting to note the FONT issue you had, and how quickly you dropped it once I called you on it.
You have the undivided attention of the board, please proceed.

I dropped the font problem because there was no solution found, other than to use print view. Moved on.

I don't need to discuss firearms. I joined because of the 2006 flu threat; this was & is an excellent resource for the medical & biological issues. Its going off the rails with the political speculation.

[InTheBlack]

Is this sort of thing likely to be implementable soon enough to be useful for epidemiology?

preprint:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v1


A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans
Fatima Amanat, et al
Posted March 18, 2020
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713

article about the subject:
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/new-blood-tests-antibodies-could-show-true-scale-coronavirus-pandemic

[InTheBlack]

1) Have there been any other findings that add credibility to or substantiate the Scripps experts claim?

2) Money and ideology is often a motivating factor to mislead or lie, examples of this can be found in tobacco and environmental studies, and US politics. People and groups lie, cheat and steal to get grants and funding.

1) You have to wait for the peer review. That's the way SCIENCE works. Maybe 5 papers will refute it.

2) So? Can you document this has happened in this instance? Ad-hominum arguments add nothing of value.

[WarriorDiplomat]

IMO the fear mongering is from people who say "Its 1) a deliberate release of a virus 2) designed for biowarfare" without scientific evidence. That has no relevence to how we stop it. It distracts from that. Ft Detrick does or will know. If so, disclosure needs to be made at the right time (or never), for maximum benefit to the US. Maybe tomorrow there will be a coordinated nuke strike on China. Or suddenly a trade deal very favorable to the US, and China retracts their claims to the South China Sea.

If there were adequate stockpiles of PPC then we would be way ahead of this situation. No business can afford to have that much stuff stockpiled, it needs to be a national stockpile but the national stockpile is not large enough -someone said 12M N95 and 40M surgical masks IIRC. My suggestion avoids spending tax money for stuff unless it is actually required. Every company can participate if it wants to, so no advantage to huge companies vs mom & pop. Better than having to use the Stafford Act to seize control of private companies (totalitarian arguably worse than socialist).

I have a degree in Biology with a specialty in Health Physics, and a degree in Environmental science. I ran the radiological respiratory protection program at a nuke plant. I was on National Institute of Science & Technology (NIST) subcommittees creating lead paint abatement standards. I spend time tracking down the primary research articles & ask questions about what I find.

So far I have a Scripps report, subject to peer review; versus various gut feelings.

Maybe someone will discredit the study by demonstrating that their data was manipulated by China.

OK now we can start to have discussions on things you are seemingly defunct on understanding that is more than just "gut" feelings but recognition of patterns on geo political issues and more importantly global economics impact on them. Again I am going to say that the real irresponsible actions is parroting numbers and statistics of a virus that most places are not actually testing for and cannot know simply cannot with any certainty discern the symptoms from the other coronaviruses in which are in season as we speak. SO how accurate are the numbers that are being used to extrapolate the effects if it??? You are also speaking with people on this site with extensive knowledge in PSYOP type principles such as social movement theory and the mediums used to create the desired affects....to you it may sound like "gut" to us it is another language easily recognized....and some of us with extensive education in sciences or multiple contacts whom are deeply involved with such subjects.

But being the highly principled scientist you seem to tout yourself as do you disagree with the Molecular Biologists/virologist/infectious disease types researching viruses they do not yet understand or some countries use of them as a cheap alternative to full scale ground or economic warfare? what you seem to suggest is research done by these types is not of a forward thinking discovery and prevention but of the knee jerk reactionary type....I know a few in the field who scoff at the reactionary accusation not that it does not happen but the constant research and seeking is a continuum as I understand it. So again who is the irresponsible ones creating panic those that are extrapolating data from partial information and telling people that this virus is 10x??? more deadly or those that are looking at a declared enemy of the U.S. and seeing that methodology and timing as suspect? it seems educated people would and could see the economic impact of overreactions by government officials as being far more destructive for people living check by check and those who depend on medications and controlled diets etc......and finally loss of liberty.

There are medical sections on this website for those wishing to stay closer to just the science and not the causal factors that enabled this irrational response. But in the general thread we are going to link things together for a broader understanding of what is actually going on.

[Paslode]

1) You have to wait for the peer review. That's the way SCIENCE works. Maybe 5 papers will refute it.

2) So? Can you document this has happened in this instance? Ad-hominum arguments add nothing of value.

Well you asked:

Do you think the Scripps people have any reason NOT to be truthful about any data indicating human design?

I merely offered you examples of how the truth is twisted and used for personal and ideological gain. That is not an attack, that is pointing out that is a possibility.


As for your claim the topic going off the rails with speculation. IMO, no one has a handle on how this started. The idea of a intentional release is no more speculative than it was accidental.

One thing that is becoming abundantly clear is China lied.

[InTheBlack]

So again who is the irresponsible ones creating panic those that are extrapolating data from partial information and telling people that this virus is 10x??? more deadly or those that are looking at a declared enemy of the U.S. and ...

it seems educated people would and could see the economic impact of overreactions by government officials as being far more destructive for people living check by check and those who depend on medications and controlled diets etc......and finally loss of liberty.
...

There are medical sections on this website for those wishing to stay closer to just the science and not the causal factors that enabled this irrational response. But in the general thread we are going to link things together for a broader understanding of what is actually going on.

So your hypothesis is that its not a pandemic but is a "society disrupting event" due to ... inept / scheming politicians? I think that is a low probability scenario, and I am insuring myself against the pandemic event.

I just looked again at the TMC-14 section and there are about 3 posts this year. None anything to do with SARS-COVID-2.

I repeat my opinion that the medical and political aspects would be easier to follow in separate threads.

[InTheBlack]

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927259#vp_1

One hospital is wearing expedient cloth over N95 masks so they can be used longer.

References to several past studies on the issue -- they have mixed results.

IMO sociologically, goverment should be urging people to wear home made masks starting last week. People are just in denial.

[PSM]

So your hypothesis is that its not a pandemic but is a "society disrupting event" due to ... inept / scheming politicians? I think that is a low probability scenario, and I am insuring myself against the pandemic event.

I just looked again at the TMC-14 section and there are about 3 posts this year. None anything to do with SARS-COVID-2.

I repeat my opinion that the medical and political aspects would be easier to follow in separate threads.

Dude, just reading your posts you read like you are hyperventilating. Not posting in sub-forums is common here. Most of us have been here a long time and the General Discussion has worked for us. BUT, I'd like to know a little bit more about you. Can you please explain what a "degreed scientific background; HAZWOPPER" is?

[InTheBlack]

My takaway is to avoid breathing the air in public restrooms, and maybe narrow hallways adjacent.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926856#vp_2

COMMENTARY
Fecal Evidence of COVID-19 Raises Transmission Concerns
David A. Johnson, MD
March 18, 2020

New studies are expanding our understanding of the possible fecal transmission of COVID-19. Assessment by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has provided evidence of virus in the stool and the oropharynx outside the nasopharynx and respiratory tract.

Virus in the stool may be evident on presentation and last throughout the course of illness resolution for up to 12 days after the respiratory virus evidence is gone.

When I say "virus evidence," it's because it does not necessarily correspond to infectivity. Studies from fecal transmission to infectivity have yet to be done. However, it's certainly suggestive that the virus is intact, at least as far as how the PCR assay for the respiratory definition is now being applied the same way for stool.

Why Possible Fecal Transmission Is Important

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that after two negative respiratory tests separated by ≥ 24 hours, patients can be dismissed from having transmissibility infection risk for COVID-19.

But we now know that these stools may lag up to 12 days after. In fact, in one of the most recent studies looking at 73 patients, approximately 24% remained positive in their stool for evidence of virus, though not necessarily infection, after showing negative in respiratory samples.

When we consider other disease states with fecal-oral transmission, the classic example that comes to mind is Clostridium difficile. We tell patients with C difficile–positive stool that when they use and flush the toilet, they can aerosolize these spores, which may then deposit on the surface areas in their bathroom.
...

The potential for fecal transmissibility has yet to be defined, but we know from a recent study that the virus has been evident in the stool of just over 50% of patients and remains in nearly 25% otherwise clear of respiratory evidence of virus.

[InTheBlack]

Can you please explain what a "degreed scientific background; HAZWOPPER" is?

Hmm, haven't looked at that in years. Hazardous Waste Operations Personnel.
I'll edit it a bit.

[InTheBlack]

They try to estimate mortality by deaths on a given day vs number of cases on the day of infection (in the past). They used 14 days in the past. The number "earlier" in time is over 20%, and decays steadily towards the WHO cumulative mortality rate of 5.6%

So my takaway is that we might see a huge mortality rate pretty soon. Hopefully the government will be ahead of that and explain this sort of curve so its not a surprise.

Better yet, if they can demonstrate the upwards curve is leading to that rate. Unless the public changes its behavior.

Real estimates of mortality following COVID-19 infection
David Baud et al
12MAR20 -- so maybe a bit dated

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext

EDIT: a followup post by the guy Mugwump recommended recently touches on the same "convergence" theme:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

SNIP
The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

What I did was look at how both evolve over time. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

This is what you see in the data. China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu.

It is made up of two completely different realities though: Hubei and the rest of China.

Hubei’s fatality rate will probably converge towards 4.8%. Meanwhile, for the rest of China, it will likely converge to ~0.9%: SNIP

Edit again: see his Chart 12; it matches the high initial death rate of the first article. So - the system gets overwhelmed very very very early.

[Penn]

ITB, your a nasty fuck. PSM asked you a direct question, and your next post is on fecal matter. That bullshit is not lost on me, nor is your continued passive aggressive attitude. So why are you here?

[Old Dog New Trick]

Ya’ll leave InTheBlack and others some leeway. These are trying times, patience is wearing thin and emotions running high. Everybody just step back and take a deep breath before posting negative attacks on each other.

And if you can’t take a deep breath call your doctor to report your medical condition to see you too have the virus.

[Joker]

ITB, your a nasty fuck. PSM asked you a direct question, and your next post is on fecal matter. That bullshit is not lost on me, nor is your continued passive aggressive attitude. So why are you here?

ITB do as Penn asked or there will be consequences.

Ya’ll leave InTheBlack and others some leeway. These are trying times, patience is wearing thin and emotions running high. Everybody just step back and take a deep breath before posting negative attacks on each other.

And if you can’t take a deep breath call your doctor to report your medical condition to see you too have the virus.

Great advice, if not followed I’ll lock the tread for 24 hours. But I do want to see ITB’s response.

[Trapper John]

ITB do as Penn asked or there will be consequences.



Great advice, if not followed I’ll lock the tread for 24 hours. But I do want to see ITB’s response.

:lifter Nuff said!

[InTheBlack]

ITB, your a nasty fuck. PSM asked you a direct question, and your next post is on fecal matter. That bullshit is not lost on me, nor is your continued passive aggressive attitude. So why are you here?

Until I see the word "Moderator" on your profile, I do no answer to you.
Stop harassing me or I will take it up with the people who really do operate this forum

>
4. No verbal attacks, flaming etc. Verbal assaults on a member of Professional Soldiers ® will result in a warning and/or immediate banning from the bulletin board. Likewise a malicious verbal assault on a Quiet Professional will result in amusing the other Quiet Professionals and a possible banning by the board administrators.
>

[Trapper John]

Until I see the word "Moderator" on your profile, I do no answer to you.
Stop harassing me or I will take it up with the people who really do operate this forum

>
4. No verbal attacks, flaming etc. Verbal assaults on a member of Professional Soldiers ® will result in a warning and/or immediate banning from the bulletin board. Likewise a malicious verbal assault on a Quiet Professional will result in amusing the other Quiet Professionals and a possible banning by the board administrators.
>

ITB you are treading on thin ice here. Be vewy, vewy, kaweful now ya hear?

[mugwump]

Until I see the word "Moderator" on your profile, I do no answer to you.
Stop harassing me or I will take it up with the people who really do operate this forum

>
4. No verbal attacks, flaming etc. Verbal assaults on a member of Professional Soldiers ® will result in a warning and/or immediate banning from the bulletin board. Likewise a malicious verbal assault on a Quiet Professional will result in amusing the other Quiet Professionals and a possible banning by the board administrators.
>

Poor situational awareness.

[Trapper John]

Poor situational awareness.

:lifter Finest Kind!

[mugwump]

Virtually every virologist and research scientist I know—not unanimous but a big majority—have a visceral and knee jerk antipathy towards anything other than zoonotic transmission from bat to some mythical mammal intermediate vector (pangolins are a cuddly favorite) to human.

These guys are finally rock stars and anything that besmirches their guild is attacked with vigor. They don’t want to think that their research projects may be contributing to global risk.

They ARE hugely contributing to global risk, and they ARE complicit.

I see this exactly as WD surmised: a sample obtained in the wild, then studied, played with, and accidentally released. I use “played with” because there is scads of enhancement research conducted on a whim.

There are several recent (post 2015) journal articles that report enhancement studies where researchers added the very same glycoprotein spike to viruses that makes COVID-19 so transmissible. There are also studies that report running coronaviruses through serial generations of mammals, usually ferrets, to induce the presence of a furin cleavage site, needed for mammal cell entry.

The scientific community circling the wagons on this issue is not proof. There is no way, none, to either prove or disprove that serial ferret infection studies did or didn’t change this virus.

These people discount the possibility of accidental release of an enhanced virus out of one side of their mouths while lauding researchers who are studding yeast cells with glycoprotein spikes via genetic manipulation to allow rapid manufacture of Covid antiviral antibodies.

I think this pandemic was an accidental release of a naturally occurring but obscure virus originally sourced from bats. I have no idea if it was manipulated prior to release, but until someone rediscovers this exact virus in the wild (expect the Chinese to do that soon, now that they’ve apparently abandoned their “it was caused by the US army” conspiracy theory) we'll never know if it was manipulated.

[mugwump]

Please don’t ban hammer ITB, it’s a shock to lose trust in scientific authority figures when you’ve hung your hat on trusting scientific authority figures.

ITB, every QP is a moderator. Every non-QP is a guest here.

[Joker]

Please don’t ban hammer ITB, it’s a shock to lose trust in scientific authority figures when you’ve hung your hat on trusting scientific authority figures.

ITB, every QP is a moderator. Every non-QP is a guest here.

And there are some non-QPs that are moderators too.

[tonyz]

Just some thoughts Re potential banning - FWIW nerves are frayed. Tempers are running hot.

Many are staring at economic meltdown for all they’ve worked hard for.

Some may also know someone infected, actually be infected or be in a high risk group or have loved ones in a high risk group.

Some may even be in both groups.

Discussion - even if it is controversial often (not always though) adds to knowledge.

Please factor that into your consideration during this highly unusual time.

Very respectfully.

T

[Joker]

ITB crossed the line. He stomped on it several times, but we overlooked that. We have real medical Drs. and Drs. that run laboratories on here. There are folks here that live it, not just read about it and regurgitate. ITB may have been educated beyond his intelligence with little SA.

[tonyz]

I didn’t even like ITBs posts but they seemed to stimulate some good discussion - even if most of it was beyond me - but it provided mug additional opportunity to elaborate on his perspective. Which was valuable.

No doubt ITB stepped on it multiple times.

[Pete]

ITB failed to realize something about this site. Bad SA. It belongs to the QP's. Everybody else is a guest.

Yes, we have Mods but.......

QP's rule

[Trapper John]

I just received an invitation from Bentham publishing to become an executive editor for their new journal, "Chinese Medical Sciences".

I am very suspicious of this as a possible hook for misinformation/disinformation dissemination or other nefarious activities.

What say yous guys?

[Old Dog New Trick]

I just received an invitation from Bentham publishing to become an executive editor for their new journal, "Chinese Medical Sciences".

I am very suspicious of this as a possible hook for misinformation/disinformation dissemination or other nefarious activities.

What say yous guys?

Know your enemy, the enemy inside the gate is more formidable than the enemy outside the gate.

As editor are you not required to read unpublished information?

[Trapper John]

Know your enemy, the enemy inside the gate is more formidable than the enemy outside the gate.

As editor are you not required to read unpublished information?

Bada bing bada boom!

But as an editor I would suggest topics and yes, I would be reading unpublished data.

I just like the idea of using my name or company to lend credibility to science that is questionable. Unless someone here can convince me otherwise, I am not going to do this.:eek:

[JJ_BPK]

Bada bing bada boom!

But as an editor I would suggest topics and yes, I would be reading unpublished data.

I just like the idea of using my name or company to lend credibility to science that is questionable. Unless someone here can convince me otherwise, I am not going to do this.:eek:

You have answered your own question.

Be safe, make sure you OWN your team selection process and editorial review.

Don't get caught with the X's swamp critters or the CEO's un-marriable Millenial chitlins, Kapish?

:lifter

[Old Dog New Trick]

Moved to economy thread

[T-Rock]

Reporting in as a guest:

Today we had our 2nd welfare check by the Health Department. Still no test results. Apparently LabCorp in Burlington, NC is backed up severely, due to the massive number of tests being performed. Although we may have the common sinus crud (I think we do), we have noticed some weird things happening with our taste & smell.
Never thought I'd see this happen, but the following is from the NC Respiratory Care Board, just this morning through email:





Dear Licensee,

Since the National Emergency Declaration and Emergency Declaration by Governor Cooper, the NCRCB accelerated the Covid-19 response by taking the following actions:

The NCRCB established a Covid-19 Task Force Adhoc Committee to coordinate with the Department of Health and Human Services. The goal is to help patients stay in the home while ensuring they receive the supplies they need. However, there is concern family caregivers will need support, which is where RCPs come into the picture. We discussed with DHHS to suspend all prior authorizations for the Medicaid and Medicare patients receiving respiratory support at home. We discussed the possibility of increasing Medicaid supplies to match those received by Medicare, at least on an emergency basis. It is now to be determined by the NCDHHS Administration. Update: The request for prior authorizations was sent to CMS last week.

After the Covid-19 Task Force Adhoc Committee last week, the Board approved the following emergency rules that expire in 60 days on March 18, 2020, during an emergency meeting:

The Board waived the requirements for continuing education requirements.
The Board waived the requirements for random audits and proof of compliance with the Board’s requirements for continuing education. No audits for at least 60 days. Those under current auditing will not be assessed until their next renewal.
The Board waived the requirements for each applicant for renewal or initial licensure to provide a copy of current certification in Basic Life Support (BLS).
The Board waived the requirements for twelve hours of continuing education hours for all renewals and initial licensure.
The Board waived the $ 75.00 late renewal fee of any license, but you must maintain a license to work.
The Board waived the requirements for lapsed licensure that requires licenses lapsed in excess of 24 months to reapply for licensure. Those licensees who have lapsed for less than five years may renew without penalty, BLS, or CE requirements.
The Board waived the requirements for individuals on inactive status; There will be no requirement to convert his or her license to active status by submission of a renewal application and payment of any late fee. They may renew without penalty, BLS, or CE requirements.
These rule waivers were submitted on Friday, March 20, 2020, and approved by the NC Rules Commission Rules Codifier. Officially, these waivers take effect on March 30, 2020. Temporary rules were also submitted following the emergency rule submission to extend these waivers for the full duration of the National Emergency Declaration.

These changes allowed licensing time to be reduced to 2 days in some cases as opposed to 30-45 days for those individuals applying by reciprocity as long as they have a current license in another state and active NBRC credentials. All licensees and applicants for licensing must have and maintain active NBRC credentials.

The Board also passed a ruling and a position statement:

1) The Respiratory Care Assistant Declaratory Ruling allows senior students to work for up to 12 months or until licensed by the Board.

2) Pandemic Flu: Covid-19 Response Position Statement states in part:

“In light of the current Covid-19 pandemic, the Board wishes to emphasize that all flu-related procedures fall within the scope to include surveillance and mitigation strategies, assessment, diagnostic testing, and vaccinations. As experts in mechanical ventilation and aerosolized medicine, the Board encourages licensees to use the AARC Practice Guidelines and guidance documents and Centers Disease Control Guidelines, specifically “Interim Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations for Patients with Suspected or Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Healthcare Settings.”

Covid-19 resources and statements will be placed on the website as soon as possible under the Covid-19 Resources tab.

Once again, we know you are working hard to treat the sickest patients in the hospital, so you must remain healthy. Take all necessary precautions per your facility policies and the Center for Disease Control guidelines. We are developing our resource page so you can also look on our website in the next 24 hours for information pertaining to this issue. Please stay tuned for more information as we adapt to this evolving situation. Above all, stay healthy.

Best Regards,

Dr. William L. Croft, Ed.D, Ph.D., RRT, RCP

Executive Director

North Carolina Respiratory Care Board

125 Edinburgh South Drive, Suite 100

Cary, NC 27511

Phone: (919) 878-5595

Fax: (919) 878-5565

E-mail: bcroft@ncrcb.org

[Old Dog New Trick]

Reporting in as a guest:

Today we had our 2nd welfare check by the Health Department. Still no test results. Apparently LabCorp in Burlington, NC is backed up severely, due to the massive number of tests being performed. Although we may have the common sinus crud (I think we do), we have noticed some weird things happening with our taste & smell.
Never thought I'd see this happen, but the following is from the NC Respiratory Care Board, just this morning through email:

T-Rock my prayers are with you and your family. That same loss of smell and taste is being reported elsewhere for recovering persons. Wishing you and yours the best and full recovery.

[T-Rock]

/\ Thank you Sir. We're good. Just running low on our booze supply :D

[GratefulCitizen]

Curious about something and wonder if there's someone with medical knowledge who could address this.

Categories which seem to be more affected by COVID 19:
Older (more specifically not young)
Male
Diabetic
Cardiovascular disease
Lung disease

Also, hydroxychloroquine has shown to be an effective treatment.

All of these have something in common: iron.
Are iron levels a risk factor?

[Old Dog New Trick]

Curious about something and wonder if there's someone with medical knowledge who could address this.

Categories which seem to be more affected by COVID 19:
Older (more specifically not young)
Male
Diabetic
Cardiovascular disease
Lung disease

Also, hydroxychloroquine has shown to be an effective treatment.

All of these have something in common: iron.
Are iron levels a risk factor?

Good question although I believe women are more iron deficient than men. It has also been shown that smokers are more susceptible to lung complications from the virus. I don’t know and I’m not a doctor. Would love someone else to take a stab at this.

[GratefulCitizen]

Good question although I believe women are more iron deficient than men. It has also been shown that smokers are more susceptible to lung complications from the virus. I don’t know and I’m not a doctor. Would love someone else to take a stab at this.

That was my point.
All of these categories have HIGHER iron levels.

One of the ways hydroxychloroquine works is by preventing the displacement of Fe from hemoglobin.
Seems to be a connection.

People living in areas with higher air pollution (dense urban areas) and at high altitude (Colorado?) would also have higher iron levels.

[PedOncoDoc]

That was my point.
All of these categories have HIGHER iron levels.

One of the ways hydroxychloroquine works is by preventing the displacement of Fe from hemoglobin.
Seems to be a connection.

People living in areas with higher air pollution (dense urban areas) and at high altitude (Colorado?) would also have higher iron levels.

Elevation actually changes oxygen affinity of hemoglobin through increases in 2,3-bisphosphoglycerate - these changes are independent of iron stores/levels.

[GratefulCitizen]

Elevation actually changes oxygen affinity of hemoglobin through increases in 2,3-bisphosphoglycerate - these changes are independent of iron stores/levels.

Ok.

Any thoughts on higher iron levels?

[Old Dog New Trick]

I was going to C&P this but it got too long. It’s one of the most detailed description I’ve seen of cases, by age, sex, contact methods, disposition (at home or hospitalized) and or recovered.

Definitely worthy of your time. 182 known suspected cases in Houston and surrounding counties.

https://abc13.com/health/new-cases-bringing-houston-area-coronavirus-total-to-182/5999764/

Not that many have been hospitalized!

Second source: 183 cases of Coronavirus COVID-19 in greater Houston area; 2 deaths, 18 recovered

https://fox26houston.com/news/183-cases-of-coronavirus-covid-19-in-greater-houston-area-2-deaths-18-recovered

[Badger52]

Definitely worthy of your time. 182 known suspected cases in Houston and surrounding counties.
Indeed; that's an amazing breakdown from a general news site.
Thanks! (Hint to Regional outlets, this is how it's done.)

[Old Dog New Trick]

Well here it is...Martial Law has been imposed on a state by state basis.


https://todaysfive.com/united-states-orders-state-border-shutdowns-national-guard-deployed/

PS I cannot confirm or deny source of this site. Leans far right if you ask me and may be BS.

[Gypsy]

Reporting in as a guest:

Today we had our 2nd welfare check by the Health Department. Still no test results. Apparently LabCorp in Burlington, NC is backed up severely, due to the massive number of tests being performed. Although we may have the common sinus crud (I think we do), we have noticed some weird things happening with our taste & smell.
Never thought I'd see this happen, but the following is from the NC Respiratory Care Board, just this morning through email:

Prayers for good news T-Rock

[Trapper John]

Reporting in as a guest:

Today we had our 2nd welfare check by the Health Department. Still no test results. Apparently LabCorp in Burlington, NC is backed up severely, due to the massive number of tests being performed. Although we may have the common sinus crud (I think we do), we have noticed some weird things happening with our taste & smell.
Never thought I'd see this happen, but the following is from the NC Respiratory Care Board, just this morning through email:

Loss of taste/ smell is a correlation. You and your family are in my thoughts and prayers. Be well and be safe!

[JJ_BPK]

Reporting in as a guest:

Today we had our 2nd welfare check by the Health Department. Still no test results.


Prayers out :(

[Ret10Echo]

Well here it is...Martial Law has been imposed on a state by state basis.


https://todaysfive.com/united-states-orders-state-border-shutdowns-national-guard-deployed/

PS I cannot confirm or deny source of this site. Leans far right if you ask me and may be BS.

Ok... soooooo...Your senses are correct OD - As Abraham Lincoln once said, Don't believe everything you read on the internet.

I would SUGGEST that the states listed have requested Title 32 enactment of National Guard.

Thus far the following States have activated their National Guard in support of COVID-19 response

Alabama | Arizona | Arkansas | California | Colorado | Connecticut | Delaware | District of Columbia | Florida | Georgia | Guam | Illinois | Iowa | Kansas | Kentucky | Louisiana | Maine | Massachusetts | Maryland | Michigan | Minnesota | Montana | New Jersey | New Mexico | New York | North Carolina | North Dakota | Pennsylvania | Puerto Rico | Rhode Island | South Carolina | Texas | Vermont | Virginia | Wisconsin


What is Title 32 you say??

Under Title 32 status, a guardsman is activated by and remains under the control of the governor, but is paid for by the federal government. This helps relieve the financial burden on the affected state.


Just saying :D

[Box]

The virus is making everyone crazy...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1241423796453638145

[Badger52]

What is Title 32 you say??
Well, shit there you go again, spewing out those pesky facts. :D

[mugwump]

The virus is making everyone crazy...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1241423796453638145

A legit LOL

[Ret10Echo]

The virus is making everyone crazy...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1241423796453638145

That was subtle and well executed.

[PSM]

:D:D:D

[P36]

Reporting in as a guest:

Today we had our 2nd welfare check by the Health Department. Still no test results. Apparently LabCorp in Burlington, NC is backed up severely, due to the massive number of tests being performed. Although we may have the common sinus crud (I think we do), we have noticed some weird things happening with our taste & smell.
Never thought I'd see this happen, but the following is from the NC Respiratory Care Board, just this morning through email:

An Active Duty friend of mine in the DC area is on home quarantine and awaiting their test result as well. Pretty sure she has it...also has a lost of smell/taste.

Hoping for the best for all.

[doctom54]

COVID-19 (SARS-Cov2) is now the challenge to all of us.

We do not have any idea what is going to happen over the next 3-4 MONTHS.

Most places in the USA have 5-10 days of PPE (gowns, gloves, masks, face shields), for nurses and doctors.

We will need 5-10 WEEKS of PPE before more start coming in through the supply pipeline.

God Bless Everyone here. I truly appreciate everyone here.

[1stindoor]

Indeed; that's an amazing breakdown from a general news site.
Thanks! (Hint to Regional outlets, this is how it's done.)

Agreed. Good reporting, factual, no names or HIPAA, and a running counter from Johns Hopkins to boot.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Update: it’s a live town hall from the South Lawn.

Also reported is that approximately 300,000 have been tested so far recently surpassing South Korea in numbers tested.

Surgeon General Adams just said 96% of those tested to date are negative and also stated that >98% of positives are recovering without treatment.

Dr. Birx has said they are seeing natural immunity in infected patients. So there is hope of “herd immunity” in the future.

I don’t know if this is a new strategy to hold outdoor news conference but this is on Fox with Bill Hemmer.

POTUS and VPOTUS are there too and both answering questions (Trump needs to learn how to shut his mouth more often. The “barbs” attacking media and some governors needs to stop.)

[Joker]

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/7-best-covid-19-resources/

[Joker]

COVID-19 (SARS-Cov2) is now the challenge to all of us.

We do not have any idea what is going to happen over the next 3-4 MONTHS.

Most places in the USA have 5-10 days of PPE (gowns, gloves, masks, face shields), for nurses and doctors.

We will need 5-10 WEEKS of PPE before more start coming in through the supply pipeline.

God Bless Everyone here. I truly appreciate everyone here.

Dr. Stay as safe as you can.

[Pete]

Something is going on out at the pharmacy annex (old small PX near Smoke Bomb Hill) on Ft Bragg,

Wife says she has been stuck in line for three hours now (drive through). She says they have tents by the entry door and maybe 100 standing outside. Said she's 8th in line now and more cars than she can count behind her.

Most I've ever seen is all the seats full and maybe 15 in the standing (called in) line. Never stood for over 20 minutes.

[Ret10Echo]

Some historical context.

Lessons learned?

[abc_123]

All,

This shit is no joke. Up to every individual to do their own research, sift thru the bullshit and and be as smart as you can. Symptoms... common and not common, helpful nutrition and vitimins. Infection trends/severity given blood type, severity given gender and age. Potential drug treatments. Symptom progression. Indicators of infections that have a higher risk of mortality. No 100% fullproof info out there, so don't be sheep. Educate yourself and be prepared to take control and advocate for self or family if you think you've got the bug.

I have close family who went from feeling shitty, to sick for 5 days..to calling his doctor to being told to stay home and get rest to feeling better for 1 day and then getting worse with a 104deg fever and driving himself to the ER and being admitted while those around him put on Hazmat suits.

55y/o male, healthy other than minor hypertension, worked out daily, not overweight by any standards, ate healthy, not a drinker. 89% pulse ox when admitted. Now in ICU in isolation with "glass fiber like" lesions on his lungs and the docs telling him that he should have come in 3 days prior and that the next 48 hrs are critical. If he doesn't respond he's going on a vent. He's there all alone, with his wife and children not allowed to there with him while he is on the edge of getting better or dying. No visits, no nothing.

Supposition is that he got this shit from some Chinese that he met with days before the travel ban. Met with them in a conference room, took them out to dinner etc.

We as a country need to get back to work and back to living, I agree. We cannot implode our country over this. However, get educated and be safe out there and take all precautions so you are on the "lucky" side of this. If you think that means slaughtering a chicken and smoking a cigar every day, then do that until we know more and we have a vaccine.

I'm not posting this to grandstand or to get false sympathy for something that is only impacting my family indirectly, but rather to serve as that guy who knows somebody who has this shit. Best if you or any of your loved ones don't get in this situation.

Good luck!

[T-Rock]

Loss of taste / smell is a correlation. You and your family are in my thoughts and prayers. Be well and be safe!

Thanks Gypsy, Trapper John, JJ PPK, P36. We're doing fine. Just a little more run down than normal but all is well. This thing, in my opinion, is being way over blown - way out of proportion to the reality of what's happening on the ground, JMHO....... I've always felt that the economic consequences from this bug will be way worse than the virus itself (progressives/never let a crisis go to waste, right?). Whether or not my wife and I are infected, we have no clue, but if we are, or aren't, it's no worse than a bad cold or Flu. My wife and I still don't know the results of our test, and we've been put on home lock down, essentially "house arrest." Neither of us can work by "decree" from the Health Department. We were tested last Thursday. My wife was exposed to a Samaritans Purse worker (worked near/around - the person who tested positive in Watauga County-Boone, NC). And of those I know that I was exposed to, that were tested - (exposed to 5 people), 4 were negative, and those negatively tested travelled to Spain, London, Morocco, Philadelphia, etc. The only person I was exposed to who wasn't tested was on the notorious "Grand Princess" cruise ship. I'm assuming that's why the Physician from Baptist (hospital in Winston-Salem, NC) quarantined my wife and I since I had a low grade fever (taste/smell is a bit weird). Both the Health Department and facility I work at, called us today for a welfare check. Told them we were fine. Still no results and we're chomping at the bit to get back to work. Burlington, NC (LabCorp must really be overrun with tests so we're told), is way behind in producing test results but they can't be blamed since they're trying hard to produce a product that's relatively new... We're ready to get back to work but can't do so until we've been cleared. Nevertheless, since we're semi-preppers, we're good to go for up to 18 months if need be. As soon as our results are back, I'll post an update.... Thanks for the concern.....

[PSM]

Some historical context.

Lessons learned?

Check out Gunnison, CO, 1918:

Gunnison residents isolated themselves from the surrounding area during the Spanish Influenza epidemic for two months at the end of 1918. All highways were barricaded near the county lines. Train conductors warned all passengers that if they stepped outside of the train in Gunnison, they would be arrested and quarantined for five days. As a result of the isolation, no one died of influenza in Gunnison during the epidemic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunnison%2C_Colorado

[Old Dog New Trick]

All,

This shit is no joke. Up to every individual to do their own research, sift thru the bullshit and and be as smart as you can. Symptoms... common and not common, helpful nutrition and vitimins. Infection trends/severity given blood type, severity given gender and age. Potential drug treatments. Symptom progression. Indicators of infections that have a higher risk of mortality. No 100% fullproof info out there, so don't be sheep. Educate yourself and be prepared to take control and advocate for self or family if you think you've got the bug.

I have close family who went from feeling shitty, to sick for 5 days..to calling his doctor to being told to stay home and get rest to feeling better for 1 day and then getting worse with a 104deg fever and driving himself to the ER and being admitted while those around him put on Hazmat suits.

55y/o male, healthy other than minor hypertension, worked out daily, not overweight by any standards, ate healthy, not a drinker. 89% pulse ox when admitted. Now in ICU in isolation with "glass fiber like" lesions on his lungs and the docs telling him that he should have come in 3 days prior and that the next 48 hrs are critical. If he doesn't respond he's going on a vent. He's there all alone, with his wife and children not allowed to there with him while he is on the edge of getting better or dying. No visits, no nothing.

Supposition is that he got this shit from some Chinese that he met with days before the travel ban. Met with them in a conference room, took them out to dinner etc.

We as a country need to get back to work and back to living, I agree. We cannot implode our country over this. However, get educated and be safe out there and take all precautions so you are on the "lucky" side of this. If you think that means slaughtering a chicken and smoking a cigar every day, then do that until we know more and we have a vaccine.

I'm not posting this to grandstand or to get false sympathy for something that is only impacting my family indirectly, but rather to serve as that guy who knows somebody who has this shit. Best if you or any of your loved ones don't get in this situation.

Good luck!

Your family member is in our prayers and he is not alone. We are all family and we are all in this together. Hold those closest and remind them every day they are loved and needed.

We are learning faster everyday about this virus and there is hope for those affected so hold onto that hope.

Good luck to us all

[Stobey]

All,

This shit is no joke. Up to every individual to do their own research, sift thru the bullshit and and be as smart as you can. Symptoms... common and not common, helpful nutrition and vitimins. Infection trends/severity given blood type, severity given gender and age. Potential drug treatments. Symptom progression. Indicators of infections that have a higher risk of mortality. No 100% fullproof info out there, so don't be sheep. Educate yourself and be prepared to take control and advocate for self or family if you think you've got the bug.

I have close family who went from feeling shitty, to sick for 5 days..to calling his doctor to being told to stay home and get rest to feeling better for 1 day and then getting worse with a 104deg fever and driving himself to the ER and being admitted while those around him put on Hazmat suits.

55y/o male, healthy other than minor hypertension, worked out daily, not overweight by any standards, ate healthy, not a drinker. 89% pulse ox when admitted. Now in ICU in isolation with "glass fiber like" lesions on his lungs and the docs telling him that he should have come in 3 days prior and that the next 48 hrs are critical. If he doesn't respond he's going on a vent. He's there all alone, with his wife and children not allowed to there with him while he is on the edge of getting better or dying. No visits, no nothing.

Supposition is that he got this shit from some Chinese that he met with days before the travel ban. Met with them in a conference room, took them out to dinner etc.

We as a country need to get back to work and back to living, I agree. We cannot implode our country over this. However, get educated and be safe out there and take all precautions so you are on the "lucky" side of this. If you think that means slaughtering a chicken and smoking a cigar every day, then do that until we know more and we have a vaccine.

I'm not posting this to grandstand or to get false sympathy for something that is only impacting my family indirectly, but rather to serve as that guy who knows somebody who has this shit. Best if you or any of your loved ones don't get in this situation.

Good luck!

Have they tried the Plaquenil and Z-pack on him yet? I'm hearing very good reports about that combo.

[T-Rock]

Your family member is in our prayers and he is not alone. We are all family and we are all in this together. Hold those closest and remind them every day they are loved and needed.

We are learning faster everyday about this virus and there is hope for those affected so hold onto that hope.

Good luck to us all

Amen.


Thus far the trend for CFR in the United States is but 1.4% for SARS-COV-2. Is it more deadly than the Flu? Yeah-hell yeah it is. But is it deadly enough to shut down our whole economy and push the whole country into a depression worse than the Great Depression of the 1930's-40's? Nope, JMHO. Why are all the Darwinists freaking out when the heard needs culling? Let the strong survive, right? The Hype shows exactly what hypocrites the progressives are. Sorry for the rant. Suppose that's what cabin fever does while on "House Arrest." :D

IMHO, this country should carry on business as usual within the next week or so or life as we know it will cease to exist - for our progeny. It's really bad, but it's overblown.

[Badger52]

IMHO, this country should carry on business as usual within the next week or so or life as we know it will cease to exist - for our progeny. It's really bad, but it's overblown.I suspect carrying on as usual will be driven by where one lives, and at what evolution of this thing they are currently in. No Presidential press conference is going to sound a klaxon and tell me that suddenly - Deus ex machina - it's all clear, come out & play now. This is going to be a localized decision if (imo) people are smart.

[abc_123]

Have they tried the Plaquenil and Z-pack on him yet? I'm hearing very good reports about that combo.

I have no idea. He is really sick and weak. Has no family there to advocate for him. That is the bad thing. Family is barred from the hospital Won't let them in. He is now at the mercy of whomever and whatever they think.

[Old Dog New Trick]

I suspect that if New York, New York (aside from Wall Street), San Francisco and Seattle all stayed home the next few weeks no one in fly-over country would notice. Except the sky would be clearer. :D

It seems now the problem is all those escaping New York are going back home! :eek:

[abc_123]

Amen.


Thus far the trend for CFR in the United States is but 1.4% for SARS-COV-2. Is it more deadly than the Flu? Yeah-hell yeah it is. But is it deadly enough to shut down our whole economy and push the whole country into a depression worse than the Great Depression of the 1930's-40's? Nope, JMHO. Why are all the Darwinists freaking out when the heard needs culling? Let the strong survive, right? The Hype shows exactly what hypocrites the progressives are. Sorry for the rant. Suppose that's what cabin fever does while on "House Arrest." :D

IMHO, this country should carry on business as usual within the next week or so or life as we know it will cease to exist - for our progeny. It's really bad, but it's overblown.

T-Rock


That's awesome and I can't say I disagree. In fact, I don't. And this is the thread for commenting.

However, do not quote my post or any post responding to my specific post again. My brother in law is by any stretch on a knife's edge of dying from this shit. Feel free to be smart, but not in response to me sharing in public about a family tragedy to help others.

Do not respond to this post. I am not interested in anything that you have to say in response. Maybe not ever.

[T-Rock]

I have no idea. He is really sick and weak. Has no family there to advocate for him. That is the bad thing. Family is barred from the hospital Won't let them in. He is now at the mercy of whomever and whatever they think.


Brother, my apologies if I've spoken out of turn. However, as a Health Care worker, in situations as you describe, I can assure you that whoever's taking care of him will go above and beyond the call of duty to ensure his survival. That's just the way we are trained. If they're not a DNR, all means necessary will be employed to ensure his survival. That's the way it is......

Forgive me for replying but I felt the need to tell you that. For what it's worth, my wife and I are probably infected. Whether you like it or not, we're sending prayers your way.

[abc_123]

Brother, my apologies if I've spoken out of turn. However, as a Health Care worker, in situations as you describe, I can assure you that whoever's taking care of him will go above and beyond the call of duty to ensure his survival. That's just the way we are trained. If they're not a DNR, all means necessary will be employed to ensure his survival. That's the way it is......

Do you think that I'm an idiot and don't know how thing work? Did I not ask/tell you not to not to respond to my post or to any other post responding to my post? Did I also not tell you that I am not interested in anything that you have to say in response?

Of course I did. Did you listen? Of course you didn't.

You didn't give a fvck and commented back anyway, because you are so very smart. So, Fvck me. I understand.

Brother? Me? I'm your brother? You are not related to me by blood. So, since you aren't you must be SF. Really? Prove it. Quickly. Nevermind. I'm not holding my breath.

I"d tell you not to call me brother. But, given that you can't follow simple instructions, and that you've already given me a, "fvck you," I guess you just do what you want.

Got it.

[PSM]

I have no idea. He is really sick and weak. Has no family there to advocate for him. That is the bad thing. Family is barred from the hospital Won't let them in. He is now at the mercy of whomever and whatever they think.

Geez. Prayers out, N.!

[T-Rock]

abc 123, Mea Culpa. You're right, I'm not your SF brother, just a Navy 5343. You're above me on your high tower, looking down. You've shown me that different military specialties have no connection whatsoever by what you've posted. Green Berets, supposedly bring everyone together for a common cause but I guess I was wrong. You dropped the ball on that shit. Live up to who you're supposed to be. I looked up to you guys but it's all a façade. I I'm gonna bow out of this thread and if I'm banned for what I've said, so be it.......

[Old Dog New Trick]

I’m not going to quote anyone here but say again that emotions and tempers are running high. It’s a very difficult time in the world right now and people are rightly freaking out because so much is unknown.

Some things have been said that are completely inappropriate and caused real pain and suffering and that should not be tolerated or felt by anyone here. Let’s please remember to respect everyone here QP or guest.

Only time will allow us to understand the course of history here and how we treat each other now will go a long way to how we come out of this pandemic disease of our time.

Please and thank you for taking the time to reflect and show support for each other.

Praying for those infected and those who are on the front line in this battle.

[abc_123]

I’m not going to quote anyone here but say again that emotions and tempers are running high. It’s a very difficult time in the world right now and people are rightly freaking out because so much is unknown.

Some things have been said that are completely inappropriate and caused real pain and suffering and that should not be tolerated or felt by anyone here. Let’s please remember to respect everyone here QP or guest.

Only time will allow us to understand the course of history here and how we treat each other now will go a long way to how we come out of this pandemic disease of our time.

Please and thank you for taking the time to reflect and show support for each other.

Praying for those infected and those who are on the front line in this battle.

Thank you, ODNT. My brother.

[abc_123]

abc 123, Mea Culpa. You're right, I'm not your SF brother, just a Navy 5343. You're above me on your high tower, looking down. You've shown me that different military specialties have no connection whatsoever by what you've posted. Green Berets, supposedly bring everyone together for a common cause but I guess I was wrong. You dropped the ball on that shit. Live up to who you're supposed to be. I looked up to you guys but it's all a façade. I I'm gonna bow out of this thread and if I'm banned for what I've said, so be it.......


Spare me your false, Mea Culpa. It's a spit in my face. However, I don't care. I know that you are not my brother, in spite of what you think from your time posting on an internet forum. Are you SF? Or, have you fought with me?

Spare me your indignation. You may have intelligence, but you have poor situational awareness and understanding of the company that you keep. You are not on some Navy forum where you reminisce about rum, sodomy, and the lash. I have personally worked in combat with many non-SF military members with different specialties, to include females, in combat. So, don't think that I am somehow biased. You, after brief consideration would undoubtedly be found wanting.

I asked you a simple thing. For all your Navy intelligence, you failed to comply. Now you come back and tell ME what Green Berets are supposed to be, and do.

I don't make the decision to ban you, or you would already be gone, child. \

You think that I've not lived up to whom I'm supposed to be as a Green Beret, not that you even know what that is, but ... I'VE BEEN THAT AND DONE EVERYTHING THAT WAS ASKED OF ME FOR 24 YEARS. You?

I'm done with you.

[abc_123]

Geez. Prayers out, N.!

Thanks. It's a shitty deal. Just wanted everyone to know that it can happen to someone that they know and that all need to be smart on symptoms and risk. There are not enough tests for everyone, so everyone needs to be smart on when to really push and/or go to the hospital.

[T-Rock]

Spare me your false, Mea Culpa

Gracias Amigo, my Diving Officer, Michael Edwin Thornton, was probably correct about your kind..... godspeed.....

[Pete]

Was reading in one of many articles yesterday where 2 doctors have admitted that they placed their medical staff on hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic.

I ain't got a problem with that.

Just hope more companies are getting into pumping it out at max speed.

[Pete]

Gracias Amigo, my Diving Officer, Michael Edwin Thornton, was probably correct about your kind..... godspeed.....

T-Rock - stop your tit for tat replies.

That's one and I'm only in the mood for one these days.

[JJ_BPK]

All,

I have close family who went from feeling shitty, to sick for 5 days..to calling his doctor to being told to stay home and get rest to feeling better for 1 day and then getting worse with a 104deg fever and driving himself to the ER and being admitted while those around him put on Hazmat suits.





Prayers for your family :[ :mad:

[SF_BHT]

abc 123, Mea Culpa. You're right, I'm not your SF brother, just a Navy 5343. You're above me on your high tower, looking down. You've shown me that different military specialties have no connection whatsoever by what you've posted. Green Berets, supposedly bring everyone together for a common cause but I guess I was wrong. You dropped the ball on that shit. Live up to who you're supposed to be. I looked up to you guys but it's all a façade. I I'm gonna bow out of this thread and if I'm banned for what I've said, so be it.......

Knock if off you are way out of line....

[frostfire]

Most places in the USA have 5-10 days of PPE (gowns, gloves, masks, face shields), for nurses and doctors.

We will need 5-10 WEEKS of PPE before more start coming in through the supply pipeline.

Far be it for me to armchair quarter back places in crisis, but necessity is the mother of invention. When I worked ER CONUS, I always thought how nonchalantly wasteful my department was with the isolation PPE. I understand the need to eliminate even that 0.001% chance of bugs escaping, OSHA, lawsuit risk usw. However, desperate times, desperate measures?

Now that I'm OCONUS and our PPE shipments are stuck as the airspace is closed, my team has learned to reuse the PPE by means of bleach bucket and a small autoclave we got. So far none of us have symptoms.

Also despite the virus, almost 60 to 90K loss in stocks and folks leaving post, I have peace in knowing that the Author of all things has our best interest, even unto death. My resting HR is at 33, stress-free, content and grateful to have a job and to find meaning in service :)

[Penn]

FF, Love You!

[Old Dog New Trick]

This is JMOO: (and I’m no expert!)

But I wish the talking heads in the media and a lot of so called “experts” reading and interpreting raw data information from around the world would stop connecting meaningless metrics and assembling their “worst case scenarios” for the rest of the world. It’s just scaring people in the worst way.

We are not Italy or Spain, or China. We are also not Germany or South Korea although closer to both of them than the first three. Most projections I see are not based on a complete set of known facts but many many assumptions. Until we test greater numbers of random people and people that have/had this virus but showed no S/S and recovered without any treatment all the infection, morbidity/mortality information is skewed.

If this outbreak hits India it will be a biblical disaster and the same will be said for many parts of South/Central America and Africa.

We are all different in better or word se ways. The comparisons have to stop. They are apples to oranges with varying degrees of carrots and sticks needed for control measures and medical saturation.

Please read or watch the best and most trusted sources of information, there is too much hysteria and fear mongering by some outlets and websites promoting an agenda right or left. Be cognizant is all

End of morning thought.

PS: The disease is deadly and many will succumb to its ravaging effects and for that my thoughts and prayers go out to the affected and their families. This has happened before and it will happen again. Will we ever truly be ready I don’t think so we have a terrible track record of planning and preparing for the next anything. Godspeed to all those dealing with this from a personal perspective. I am too.

[JJ_BPK]

Picked up this AM

Interesting active progression chart of the virus movement for this month of the top 10 countries.

The further you are from the source the slower the incidence rate.
The USA is a case in point.

The USA may look excessive to some, but if you add all the EU countries head-count (445M) and compares to the US head-count(330M), then the EU confirmed count of 205K vs the USA count of 55K shows our "remoteness" has helped.

Will we catch-up and surpass?
Will the gap allow time for a vaccine and effective treatment to be developed?

:munchin

PS: Not sure of the source. google leads to a YT page but not the author.
This is a copy from a FB.


https://www.facebook.com/1297397943/videos/10222048422461754/?t=4

[Pete]

...The USA may look excessive to some, but if you add all the EU countries head-count (445M) and compares to the US head-count(330M), then the EU confirmed count of 205K vs the USA count of 55K shows our "remoteness" has helped.....

If you look at the US maps the hardest hit areas are the big cities. In NC the hot spots are Raleigh, Durham and Charlotte - the big urban centers.

Still saying our numbers will improve by this weekend.

The money will have been better spent cranking out enough hydroxychloroquine treatment for everybody in the US as a prophylactic and telling everybody to go back to work.

Yes, more people will still die but .....

[Old Dog New Trick]

Anyone take a look at the Johns Hopkins University page lately.

The Diamond Princess is both a country and a US state. The Grand Princess is also a US state. Surprisingly they have one US death between them.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[Pete]

4 more state pharmacy boards join Ohio in curbing prescriptions for experimental COVID-19 drugs.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/pharmacy/4-more-state-pharmacy-boards-join-ohio-in-curbing-prescriptions-for-experimental-covid-19-drugs.h

"Four more state pharmacy boards have followed Ohio's lead and taken steps to block pharmacists from excessively dispensing two drugs touted as possible COVID-19 treatments, as both drugs are already in shortage.

Utah, Idaho, Texas and Nevada have all moved to block unnecessary prescriptions of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, both designed to treat malaria but commonly used to treat autoimmune diseases such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis..."

Interesting - A Listers and Sports Stars will be able to get it.

[Trapper John]

I think we are going to see more patients at younger ages with acute respiratory distress syndrome. I have developed a drug candidate to address this issue. We are raising the $s to manufacture trial lots.

Will keep yous guys posted as to our progress.

[Pete]

I think we are going to see more patients at younger ages with acute respiratory distress syndrome. I have developed a drug candidate to address this issue. We are raising the $s to manufacture trial lots.

Will keep yous guys posted as to our progress.

Opening up the tool box and finding another tool in there.

Good work.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Good work Trapper, keep us posted.

As an aside...ever hear the phrase “don’t go away mad, just go away?“

Well that’s how I felt after reading the news from former CDC Director Tom Friedan, lambasting the current administration at a time when “unprecedented” actually does mean unprecedented. Mr. Friedan, you had your own opportunities for success and from a historical perspective failed and floundered yourself. Where are all the restocked supplies of PPE the government should have ordered after N1H1? And why isn’t the US better prepared for a pandemic of colossal size and scope? Blame who you want but the buck started with you and the previous DHS/FEMA Director for where we started last month. Maybe golf more talk less!

Check out this article from USA TODAY:

The US is confronting coronavirus without the CDC. It's 'like fighting with one hand tied behind your back,' ex-director says.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/03/24/coronavirus-response-us-cdc-tom-frieden-usa-today/2910582001/

And who the hell is Greta Thunberg again? Why on earth would I care if you “think” you have Coronavirus? I don’t, but best wishes staying in the spotlight.

Check out this article from USA TODAY:

Greta Thunberg says it's 'extremely likely' she had coronavirus after her trip to central Europe

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/03/25/coronavirus-greta-thunberg-says-extremely-likely-she-had-covid-19/5076804002/

[Joker]

https://sayari.com/buyer-beware-counterfeit-mask-suppliers-in-the-covid-19-era/

[Gypsy]

ABC_123 my prayers are with you and your family.

It's disturbing to me that the hospitals are not allowing family in, patients need advocates.

[SF_BHT]

https://sayari.com/buyer-beware-counterfeit-mask-suppliers-in-the-covid-19-era/

There is always some shithead that is ready to scam people for a buck during an emergency.

If caught I think a speedy public execution is deserving.

[Old Dog New Trick]

There is always some shithead that is ready to scam people for a buck during an emergency.

If caught I think a speedy public execution is deserving.

Naw, a trip through the NBC chamber with their product and real mustard agent not Tropical Hydrochloride or CS.

[Old Dog New Trick]

ABC_123 my prayers are with you and your family.

It's disturbing to me that the hospitals are not allowing family in, patients need advocates.

My wife recently had a follow up radiology appointment to her December cancer surgery and they were not going to let me in the hospital with her even though she struggles with English comprehension and has severe allergies to a medicine in the contrast solution needed for the CAT-Scan. They eventually let both of us in.

You are right, patients need their advocates and people do better when surrounded by love. They may have to re-evaluate this policy especially for people that may be co-infected but showing no S/S.

[mugwump]

We're currently on track for the worst outcome using official stats. Yes I know China lies and we're way behind in testing.


36350

[Joker]

We're currently on track for the worst outcome using official stats. Yes I know China lies and we're way behind in testing.


36350

I hope you a wrong. But I believe you are correct.

[Flagg]

My wife recently had a follow up radiology appointment to her December cancer surgery and they were not going to let me in the hospital with her even though she struggles with English comprehension and has severe allergies to a medicine in the contrast solution needed for the CAT-Scan. They eventually let both of us in.

You are right, patients need their advocates and people do better when surrounded by love. They may have to re-evaluate this policy especially for people that may be co-infected but showing no S/S.

Best wishes for your wife’s followup, sincerely.

Good point on advocacy.

We’ve recently shifted towards having what’s called a “soldier’s friend” to remain with a casualty at all times.

It seems to have an intangible value that is tangible, if that makes any sense.

[mugwump]

Italy just had their 24th physician death due to COVID.

One of my daughter's friends is a nurse anesthetist reassigned to the ICU. She’s been issued a paper grocery bag with her name written on it in sharpie. If she needs to unmask, she’s directed to place her mask in the bag, being careful (!) to place it contaminated surface down and then fold the bag closed. She’s to reverse the procedure when donning the mask.

One. Mask. Per. Day.

This is so effed up I can’t even...

ETA this isn’t Madison. It’s a different Midwest state.

[PSM]

My wife recently had a follow up radiology appointment to her December cancer surgery and they were not going to let me in the hospital with her even though she struggles with English comprehension and has severe allergies to a medicine in the contrast solution needed for the CAT-Scan. They eventually let both of us in.

You are right, patients need their advocates and people do better when surrounded by love. They may have to re-evaluate this policy especially for people that may be co-infected but showing no S/S.

Thoughts and prayers out, ODNT. So much happening at once. Glad you could be there for her!

[mugwump]

The virus is making everyone crazy...

https://twitter.com/i/status/1241423796453638145

More please :munchin

[mugwump]

“Terminal cutoff” is now being used to gauge the level of collapse of National HC systems. The French have gone to age 80 in Strasbourg. Swiss are the same. Italy was 65 but is going down to 60 sometime today, per local doctor reports. Even with the flattening of new infections in Italy, existing patients are lingering and deteriorating while new cases still pour in. Spain has been age 60 for a while now.

And we're following Italy and Spain’s infection trajectory.

Our own docs will be doing this soon—putting Americans down like ailing pets. They need legal cover...and they need something they can hold on to at 3 am when this is all over.

Really sobering. I had a lot left in me when I was 60!


Patients in hospital and patients in nursing homes who are older than 80 years are no longer ventilated. Instead, "terminal care with opiates and sleeping pills"

Report by German disaster physicians from the University Hospital of Strasbourg (France)

[1stindoor]

I think we are going to see more patients at younger ages with acute respiratory distress syndrome. I have developed a drug candidate to address this issue. We are raising the $s to manufacture trial lots.

Will keep yous guys posted as to our progress.

Interesting read. Good luck with the trial.

[1stindoor]

There is always some shithead that is ready to scam people for a buck during an emergency.

If caught I think a speedy public execution is deserving.

I disagree with the "speedy" part. I think they're prime candidates for drug testing though.

[Cynic]

Italy just had their 24th physician death due to COVID.

One of my daughter's friends is a nurse anesthetist reassigned to the ICU. She’s been issued a paper grocery bag with her name written on it in sharpie. If she needs to unmask, she’s directed to place her mask in the bag, being careful (!) to place it contaminated surface down and then fold the bag closed. She’s to reverse the procedure when donning the mask.

One. Mask. Per. Day.

This is so effed up I can’t even...

ETA this isn’t Madison. It’s a different Midwest state.

Here in tri-county Detroit area, we are reaching critical care bed capacity. Staff is to put their mask in the paper bag at the end of their shift, take it home, and bring it back to wear the NEXT day.
I sure wish someone had replenished our national stockpile 5-10 years ago. Ford and GM are taking point on ventilators but it all takes time. Some PPE is being created with 3-D printing. Yay us, I hope it's all in time.

[JJ_BPK]

Here in tri-county Detroit area, we are reaching critical care bed capacity. Staff is to put their mask in the paper bag at the end of their shift, take it home, and bring it back to wear the NEXT day.
I sure wish someone had replenished our national stockpile 5-10 years ago. Ford and GM are taking point on ventilators but it all takes time. Some PPE is being created with 3-D printing. Yay us, I hope it's all in time.

Just reading about Cuomo complaining about the shortages.

Seems he had the chance in 2015 to get ventilators but elected to install a DNR board to handle the volume in the next disaster.


The task force discovered that were 7,250 ventilators in New York hospitals and about 1,900 in nursing homes – with most of them already in use. Even with the state’s own stockpile, that task force said there was only 2,800 total ventilators available, despite health officials’ warnings that a major outbreak could require 18,600 New Yorkers to be on the machines each week during the crisis’ peak.

Instead of buying the ventilators in 2015, the task force created a priority system for who would be put on a ventilator – red being the most dire, blue being the least – and assigned a triage officer, or “death panel” as Trump said, to make the life-or-death decisions.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-cites-report-cuomo-passed-on-chance-to-buy-16000-ventilators-in-2015

[Pete]

Interesting milestone today,

Ever since this thing took off deaths had always outnumbered the "recovered" due to the length of recovery some needed.

As of now the latest update has it as 1,173 dead - 1,864 recovered. So those that got it first are coming out of it now.

Got to remember this does not count those with mid symptoms that were told to go home.

[JJ_BPK]

Another bean-counter conundrum.


Why isn't the European Union being counted as a single government entity instead of individual states??


This AM I hunted their combined number for another reason,,

EU/EEA/UK reporting 232,470 cases with 13,692 deaths,,
USA reporting 80,021 cases with 1130 deaths

EU/EEA/UK population 515,000,000
USA population 330,000,000

EU/EEA/UK 4,944,753 km2 (1,909,180 sq mi)
USA 8,080,464 km2 (3,119,884.69 sq ml)


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

PS Forgot map :rolleyes:

[Gypsy]

My wife recently had a follow up radiology appointment to her December cancer surgery and they were not going to let me in the hospital with her even though she struggles with English comprehension and has severe allergies to a medicine in the contrast solution needed for the CAT-Scan. They eventually let both of us in.

You are right, patients need their advocates and people do better when surrounded by love. They may have to re-evaluate this policy especially for people that may be co-infected but showing no S/S.

i'm glad to hear they let you in with your wife. A patient should indeed have the comfort of knowing their loved ones are around.

My cousin had an emergency procedure for a blood clot in his leg (stent) and his wife was not allowed into the hospital, she was beside herself. Fortunately it all was ok and he was released today.

[Badger52]

Another bean-counter conundrum.


Why isn't the European Union being counted as a single government entity instead of individual states??


This AM I hunted their combined number for another reason,,

EU/EEA/UK reporting 232,470 cases with 13,692 deaths,,
USA reporting 80,021 cases with 1130 deaths

EU/EEA/UK population 515,000,000
USA population 330,000,000

EU/EEA/UK 4,944,753 km2 (1,909,180 sq mi)
USA 8,080,464 km2 (3,119,884.69 sq ml)


https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueeaConsidering what they regard as a contiguous border that's an interesting set of numbers.

[mugwump]

In use in NY, apparently. It’s being passed around by docs I know. The pic lost resolution when I had to convert it from png to jpg to embed but you can puzzle it out. The starting number is your age.

36356

[WarriorDiplomat]

“Terminal cutoff” is now being used to gauge the level of collapse of National HC systems. The French have gone to age 80 in Strasbourg. Swiss are the same. Italy was 65 but is going down to 60 sometime today, per local doctor reports. Even with the flattening of new infections in Italy, existing patients are lingering and deteriorating while new cases still pour in. Spain has been age 60 for a while now.

And we're following Italy and Spain’s infection trajectory.

Our own docs will be doing this soon—putting Americans down like ailing pets. They need legal cover...and they need something they can hold on to at 3 am when this is all over.

Really sobering. I had a lot left in me when I was 60!


Patients in hospital and patients in nursing homes who are older than 80 years are no longer ventilated. Instead, "terminal care with opiates and sleeping pills"

Report by German disaster physicians from the University Hospital of Strasbourg (France)

Just think if we go to the Medicaid for all good ole Bernie wants and many young Americans do then our entire system would be a permanent rack and stack system like Canada...where the old are given the minimum and comfort care and as the math has to work out in the system being overloaded the time shifts left to the younger and younger group

[PSM]

Supposedly, the first case on an Army fort is at Ft. Sill. A DoA civilian tested positive. Now the classes are frozen.

[mugwump]

Regarding the breathless reports of up to 20% of Chinese recovered cases testing positive again...the key sentence: "The researchers also found no evidence they were still infections, as family members all tested negative."

[Pete]

So where are we?

Since March 21st the death count has been 46, 113, 141,, 225, 243 and then 268 yesterday.

Look at all the graphs at the link below. Yes, they are all going up - but none at the vertical that was predicted by now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yes, NYC is a basket case, some hospitals around the country are going to be swamped and cases will continue to go up.

But are we starting to win?

[mugwump]

So where are we?

Since March 21st the death count has been 46, 113, 141,, 225, 243 and then 268 yesterday.

Look at all the graphs at the link below. Yes, they are all going up - but none at the vertical that was predicted by now.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Yes, NYC is a basket case, some hospitals around the country are going to be swamped and cases will continue to go up.

But are we starting to win?


I’d say yes. Our CFR is nothing like that seen in Italy, Spain, or France. I haven’t seen any convincing reason why but I’ll take it.

We're definitely not out of the woods, especially with the spring break cases not even appearing yet, but I think we're on track for a 1%-1.5% CFR.

[mugwump]

The video linked below is a fascinating window into so many, many trends: state surveillance, COVID-19 case tracking and contact analysis, loss of any sense of community responsibility...

The context here is tracking the population of one small beach in Florida as they return home. Expand this to all the other beaches in FL, TX, AL and you can see why those state governors were idiots.

Anywho, the type of analysis shown in this video is what the Chinese are using to assign red/yellow/green infection risk status to individuals in China via a cellphone app. If your phone has come within 2 meters of another phone carried by an infected person, your phone turns red and you’re a social pariah with no access to stores, public transport, etc.

This is why AI is such a big deal. Not a muahaha evil computer mind taking over the world but real-time analysis of social data to control populations. And Google is helping the commies do it, but that’s another post.

https://twitter.com/tectonixgeo/status/1242628347034767361?s=21

[Pete]

...We're definitely not out of the woods, especially with the spring break cases not even appearing yet, but I think we're on track for a 1%-1.5% CFR.

Any word on the underground med net about the rate of use of Malaria drugs and their effectiveness? Supply?

At the start of the Med frenzy there was talk about they were in our system in limited numbers (lupus/arthritis users and limited travel to those Malaria areas) and some manufacturers like Bayer were donating 1.5 million does but now pretty much nothing on supply. 5 state Gov's restricting it's use and one US company going to ramp up production next week.

So the big question is "What does the supply and pipeline look like?"

[PedOncoDoc]

Any word on the underground med net about the rate of use of Malaria drugs and their effectiveness? Supply?

At the start of the Med frenzy there was talk about they were in our system in limited numbers (lupus/arthritis users and limited travel to those Malaria areas) and some manufacturers like Bayer were donating 1.5 million does but now pretty much nothing on supply. 5 state Gov's restricting it's use and one US company going to ramp up production next week.

So the big question is "What does the supply and pipeline look like?"

Word from a close colleague at Mt. Sinai is that in NYC they are using a lot of chloroquine and tocilizumab (anti-IL-6 antibody - used to shut down massive inflammation). I can't speak to the efficacy, but use seems to be fairly liberal.

[Joker]

Word from a close colleague at Mt. Sinai is that in NYC they are using a lot of chloroquine and tocilizumab (anti-IL-6 antibody - used to shut down massive inflammation). I can't speak to the efficacy, but use seems to be fairly liberal.

Good info. Thanks Doc.

[Pete]

This story is from yesterday.

"Clinical trials may begin next week in New York for coronavirus treatments: Health official"

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/clinical-trials-begin-week-york-coronavirus-treatments-health/story?id=69817703

This is from the "if it only saves one life" crowd.

Pretty sure this past weekend they said they would start in on Tuesday. So Tuesday to Monday at 100 deaths a day works out to, lets see, 700 deaths.

Orange Man's Fault

It appears not all Docs are waiting for it to be official.

[Stobey]

Here in tri-county Detroit area, we are reaching critical care bed capacity. Staff is to put their mask in the paper bag at the end of their shift, take it home, and bring it back to wear the NEXT day.
I sure wish someone had replenished our national stockpile 5-10 years ago. Ford and GM are taking point on ventilators but it all takes time. Some PPE is being created with 3-D printing. Yay us, I hope it's all in time.

The MyPillow factory is gearing up to make face masks.

"
The all-American company MyPillow has started making medical masks to help do their part in combating the coronavirus outbreak.
MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, posted a video explaining that the company has already started producing masks and expects they will soon be able to pump out as many as 40,000 per day."


https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/all-american-company-mypillow-begins-making-medical-masks-to-combat-coronavirus/

[PSM]

The MyPillow factory is gearing up to make face masks.

I Guarantee it will be the most comfortable face mask you’ll ever wear!

[Old Dog New Trick]

I Guarantee it will be the most comfortable face mask you’ll ever wear!

Oh thanks for that LMFAO! Need to clean the virus off my screen now. :D

[Stobey]

I Guarantee it will be the most comfortable face mask you’ll ever wear!


Maybe they will call them "MyFaceMask"?

[WarriorDiplomat]

My response to a Brit on another forum

We should be treating this like any other infectious corona virus....it appears that we have neglected the years of institutional recommendations of washing our hands, avoiding contact if possible, etc...the things that give us the advantage in western society over third world countries is our knowledge of how to prevent disease spread and the resources to do so. The other Coronas we have had kills thousands every year after years of research, meds development, vaccines we cannot stop the deaths associated with the seasonal flu, URI and the common cold why? because the viruses are living breathing animals that are highly adaptable and evolve faster than we can solve it....Covid19 is a lot of hyperbole by a storyline hungry media giving bad incomplete information that has gone overboard in creating fear and panic.....remember the song by Don Henley Dirty Laundry?. Its unfortunate we didn't show the same care for our vulnerable during the cold and flu season any other time....our daily and seasonal habits are lacking and covid19 shows that.

Case in point my brother in law and their 4 kids are sick...they called the doctor who recommended them to the hospital they went to the hospital with fevers and were denied treatment there but were given medication but not a single test to confirm whether or not it is simply the cold going around their home or a flu...this is the season....but NO TEST...I say again NO TEST but they were labeled as having it without a test. According to them over the phone that it feels like a flu that turned into a cold and chest congestion which is typical for them annually.....my wifes family are medical at varying levels from RN to surgeon and they can't tell the difference. Understandably the hospital is taking precautions to prevent spread as they were told to isolate themselves but again NO TEST...NO CONFIRMATION....just precautions however they are factored in has confirmed cases notice I said confirmed without confirmation? They may just have the latest virus floating around not Covid19 or they may have Covid19.....the fact is nobody knows. The media are taking an awful lot of liberties by giving statistics that are not necessarily true and it is this that is creating the fear and panic that has driven the public perception and cries for answers that drives political decisions that may very well see the economy crashed....if it crashes you Brits will wish you had the right to bear arms and protect what you have from looting and violence.

The irresponsible thing is to create the fear and panic to the extent it is that is on the verge of wrecking our global economy which is far more dangerous.......you wanna see the primal animalists natural of man in the fallen state? I have while in the military and it is not what we want to become it is eerily post apocalyptic.....create more fear and panic and then pull the economy out from under them and watch what they are willing to do to survive. IMO the one advantage a authoritarian government has over western civilization in this scenario is it controls the media messaging and if it becomes subversive of government like ours has it can take immediate action.As of now due to the media causing more fear and panic we are kind of at the mercy of the policies....the media is really in control of this and that is the vulnerable underbelly of a Democratic society the 1st amendment being abused and the elected officials require consent of the governed to keep power.

[Ret10Echo]

Thanks WD for the cross post. We as a society are highly vulnerable to waves of fear and panic because people strongly desire purpose. Alongside that we have developed a herd mentality that exasperates the circumstances.

What occurs is the intersection of PC taboos and real life that don't allow us to act.

I'd also add that our medical system in the US has become all about pharmaceutical medicine and suppression of symptoms not getting to the origin of the problem. Result - super viruses and a people that demand a solution in an easily swallowed pill form.

[Badger52]

Tip of the spear testing & results in 15 minutes?
Abbott Labs has apparently just received accelerated FDA approval for their test.

Fox Business News had the link (https://www.foxbusiness.com/healthcare/rapid-coronavirus-test-from-abbott-labs-approved-by-the-fda) - you can click past the fact that they don't like your ad blocker...

From the company itself:
ABBOTT LAUNCHES MOLECULAR POINT-OF-CARE TEST TO DETECT NOVEL CORONAVIRUS IN AS LITTLE AS FIVE MINUTES
- The Abbott ID NOW™ COVID-19 test brings rapid testing to the front lines
- Test to run on Abbott's point-of-care ID NOW platform - a portable instrument that can be deployed where testing is needed most
- ID NOW has the largest molecular point-of-care installed base in the U.S. and is available in a wide range of healthcare settings
- Abbott will be making ID NOW COVID-19 tests available next week and expects to ramp up manufacturing to deliver 50,000 tests per day
- This is the company's second test to receive Emergency Use Authorization by the FDA for COVID-19 detection; combined, Abbott expects to produce about 5 million tests per month.
The company's press release can be read here in full (https://abbott.mediaroom.com/2020-03-27-Abbott-Launches-Molecular-Point-of-Care-Test-to-Detect-Novel-Coronavirus-in-as-Little-as-Five-Minutes).

Something to watch perhaps, with massive testing capability being one of the facets of the fight, insofar as my understanding goes.

[JJ_BPK]

I found a couple articles of interest.

1st USATODAY, not my favorate.



https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/27/scientists-track-coronavirus-strains-mutation/5080571002/


That leads to this little nugget. The 1st comment listed is by Bill Gates on twitter and points the lead to the next site.


Nextstrain, Real-time tracking of pathogen evolution

Nextstrain is an open-source project to harness the scientific and public health potential of pathogen genome data. We provide a continually-updated view of publicly available data alongside powerful analytic and visualization tools for use by the community. Our goal is to aid epidemiological understanding and improve outbreak response. If you have any questions, or simply want to say hi, please give us a shout at hello@nextstrain.org.

https://nextstrain.org/


BG pointer


Real-time tracking of Zika virus evolution
avatarBuilt with nextstrain/zika. Maintained by Trevor Bedford.
Showing 543 of 543 genomes sampled between Feb 2013 and Jul 2019.

https://nextstrain.org/zika?l=clock&m=div


I hope this can be useful to some of you.. :munchin

[JJ_BPK]

We have some success




Dr. Vladimir (Zev) Zelenko
Board Certified Family Practitioner
501 Rt 208, Monroe, NY 10950
845-238-0000
March 23, 2020



To all medical professionals around the world:



My name is Dr. Zev Zelenko and I practice medicine in Monroe, NY. For the last 16 years, I have cared for approximately 75% of the adult population of Kiryas Joel, which is a very close knit community of approximately 35,000 people in which the infection spread rapidly and unchecked prior to the imposition of social distancing.

As of today my team has tested approximately 200 people from this community for Covid-19, and 65% of the results have been positive. If extrapolated to the entire community, that means more than 20,000 people are infected at the present time. Of this group, I estimate that there are 1500 patients who are in the high-risk category (i.e. >60, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).

Given the urgency of the situation, I developed the following treatment protocol in the pre-hospital setting and have seen only positive results:

1. Any patient with shortness of breath regardless of age is treated.
2. Any patient in the high-risk category even with just mild symptoms is treated.
3. Young, healthy and low risk patients even with symptoms are not treated (unless their circumstances change and they fall into category 1 or 2).

My out-patient treatment regimen is as follows:

1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days

The rationale for my treatment plan is as follows. I combined the data available from China and South Korea with the recent study published from France (sites available on request). We know that hydroxychloroquine helps Zinc enter the cell. We know that Zinc slows viral replication within the cell. Regarding the use of azithromycin, I postulate it prevents secondary bacterial infections. These three drugs are well known and usually well tolerated, hence the risk to the patient is low.

Since last Thursday, my team has treated approximately 350 patients in Kiryas Joel and another 150 patients in other areas of New York with the above regimen.

Of this group and the information provided to me by affiliated medical teams, we have had ZERO deaths, ZERO hospitalizations, and ZERO intubations. In addition, I have not heard of any negative side effects other than approximately 10% of patients with temporary nausea and diarrhea.

In sum, my urgent recommendation is to initiate treatment in the outpatient setting as soon as possible in accordance with the above. Based on my direct experience, it prevents acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), prevents the need for hospitalization and saves lives.

With much respect,



https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SesxgaPnpT6OfCYuaFSwXzDK4cDKMbivoALprcVFj48/mobilebasic

[Pete]

Usually spend Sunday afternoons cruising the net.

Lots of little stories here and there about "Regulations" getting in the way of getting things done.

Stuff like a few days ago where there were some construction N95 masks that the makers wanted to donate but couldn't. Seems construction masks are certified by one government agency while the same mask for medical use is certified by another agency.

I don't think the President has time to walk around stomping out little fires here and there.

He needs to put out to his department leaders that he wants this shit to stop. Get 'er done. The next minion that says no due only to bureaucracy is fired or the department head is.

Just my opinion of course.

[Badger52]

We have some successThat's the kind of thing worth noting and, besides, I like his attitude. Sounds like a team that went out and ferreted the best info they could find - based on results - and didn't wait for 'permission' from higher HQ. Renegades!!!
:cool:

[SF_BHT]

Usually spend Sunday afternoons cruising the net.

Lots of little stories here and there about "Regulations" getting in the way of getting things done.

Stuff like a few days ago where there were some construction N95 masks that the makers wanted to donate but couldn't. Seems construction masks are certified by one government agency while the same mask for medical use is certified by another agency.

I don't think the President has time to walk around stomping out little fires here and there.

He needs to put out to his department leaders that he wants this shit to stop. Get 'er done. The next minion that says no due only to bureaucracy is fired or the department head is.

Just my opinion of course.

Not just agency heads. I went through our hazmat room that had no inventory and came up with a list of everything in it. Suggested that a large quantity of excess PPE be dropped off at the local PD or university hospital to help out and we still would have a large number of gear to cover our needs. You would have thought I was offering to rob a bank. They almost had a cow. Not no but Hell no.

Now other than me they did not know this stock was even in the building.....

I was even lectured that I should have not gotten other employees involved with the inventory and organizing of the room as that violated The 6ft rule.

Boy are we screwed with indecisive people like this. I just walk around shaking my head each day.

[Ret10Echo]

Not just agency heads. I went through our hazmat room that had no inventory and came up with a list of everything in it. Suggested that a large quantity of excess PPE be dropped off at the local PD or university hospital to help out and we still would have a large number of gear to cover our needs. You would have thought I was offering to rob a bank. They almost had a cow. Not no but Hell no.

Now other than me they did not know this stock was even in the building.....

I was even lectured that I should have not gotten other employees involved with the inventory and organizing of the room as that violated The 6ft rule.

Boy are we screwed with indecisive people like this. I just walk around shaking my head each day.


Similar occurrence (Federal space as well). Instead of F/S/L fining the construction company for hauling a load of dirt, maybe they should be raiding shut - down or limited staff Federal Buildings for PPE. :confused: