Avoiding a U.S.-China Cold War

[akv]

Avoiding a U.S.-China cold war
By Henry A. Kissinger
Friday, January 14, 2011;

The upcoming summit between the American and Chinese presidents is to take place while progress is being made in resolving many of the issues before them, and a positive communique is probable. Yet both leaders also face an opinion among elites in their countries emphasizing conflict rather than cooperation.

Most Chinese I encounter outside of government, and some in government, seem convinced that the United States seeks to contain China and to constrict its rise. American strategic thinkers are calling attention to China's increasing global economic reach and the growing capability of its military forces.

Care must be taken lest both sides analyze themselves into self-fulfilling prophecies. The nature of globalization and the reach of modern technology oblige the United States and China to interact around the world. A Cold War between them would bring about an international choosing of sides, spreading disputes into internal politics of every region at a time when issues such as nuclear proliferation, the environment, energy and climate require a comprehensive global solution.

Conflict is not inherent in a nation's rise. The United States in the 20th century is an example of a state achieving eminence without conflict with the then-dominant countries. Nor was the often-cited German-British conflict inevitable. Thoughtless and provocative policies played a role in transforming European diplomacy into a zero-sum game.

Sino-U.S. relations need not take such a turn. On most contemporary issues, the two countries cooperate adequately; what the two countries lack is an overarching concept for their interaction. During the Cold War, a common adversary supplied the bond. Common concepts have not yet emerged from the multiplicity of new tasks facing a globalized world undergoing political, economic and technological upheaval.

That is not a simple matter. For it implies subordinating national aspirations to a vision of a global order.

Neither the United States nor China has experience in such a task. Each assumes its national values to be both unique and of a kind to which other peoples naturally aspire. Reconciling the two versions of exceptionalism is the deepest challenge of the Sino-American relationship.

America's exceptionalism finds it natural to condition its conduct toward other societies on their acceptance of American values. Most Chinese see their country's rise not as a challenge to America but as heralding a return to the normal state of affairs when China was preeminent. In the Chinese view, it is the past 200 years of relative weakness - not China's current resurgence - that represent an abnormality.

America historically has acted as if it could participate in or withdraw from international affairs at will. In the Chinese perception of itself as the Middle Kingdom, the idea of the sovereign equality of states was unknown. Until the end of the 19th century, China treated foreign countries as various categories of vassals. China never encountered a country of comparable magnitude until European armies imposed an end to its seclusion. A foreign ministry was not established until 1861, and then primarily for dealing with colonialist invaders.

America has found most problems it recognized as soluble. China, in its history of millennia, came to believe that few problems have ultimate solutions. America has a problem-solving approach; China is comfortable managing contradictions without assuming they are resolvable.

American diplomacy pursues specific outcomes with single-minded determination. Chinese negotiators are more likely to view the process as combining political, economic and strategic elements and to seek outcomes via an extended process. American negotiators become restless and impatient with deadlocks; Chinese negotiators consider them the inevitable mechanism of negotiation. American negotiators represent a society that has never suffered national catastrophe - except the Civil War, which is not viewed as an international experience. Chinese negotiators cannot forget the century of humiliation when foreign armies exacted tribute from a prostrate China. Chinese leaders are extremely sensitive to the slightest implication of condescension and are apt to translate American insistence as lack of respect.

North Korea provides a good example of differences in perspective. America is focused on the proliferation of nuclear weapons. China, which in the long run has more to fear from nuclear weapons there than we, in addition emphasizes propinquity. It is concerned about the turmoil that might follow if pressures on nonproliferation lead to the disintegration of the North Korean regime. America seeks a concrete solution to a specific problem. China views any such outcome as a midpoint in a series of interrelated challenges, with no finite end, about the future of Northeast Asia. For real progress, diplomacy with Korea needs a broader base.

Americans frequently appeal to China to prove its sense of "international responsibility" by contributing to the solution of a particular problem. The proposition that China must prove its bona fides is grating to a country that regards itself as adjusting to membership in an international system designed in its absence on the basis of programs it did not participate in developing.

While America pursues pragmatic policies, China tends to view these policies as part of a general design. Indeed, it tends to find a rationale for essentially domestically driven initiatives in terms of an overall strategy to hold China down.

The test of world order is the extent to which the contending can reassure each other. In the American-Chinese relationship, the overriding reality is that neither country will ever be able to dominate the other and that conflict between them would exhaust their societies. Can they find a conceptual framework to express this reality? A concept of a Pacific community could become an organizing principle of the 21st century to avoid the formation of blocs. For this, they need a consultative mechanism that permits the elaboration of common long-term objectives and coordinates the positions of the two countries at international conferences.

The aim should be to create a tradition of respect and cooperation so that the successors of leaders meeting now continue to see it in their interest to build an emerging world order as a joint enterprise.

The writer was secretary of state from 1973 to 1977.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011304832.html

[Richard]

Maybe they'll have a State dinner at Yang Ming in Bryn Mawr, PA, to show the Chinese delegation what American ingenuity can do to Chinese cuisine.

http://top100.chinesemenu.com/us/

http://top100.chinesemenu.com/event/...e&id=514825050

And if there isn't time, they can always order take-out from Dragon City in Jonesboro, AR.

http://top100.chinesemenu.com/event/...s&id=514825059

Richard

[akv]

Originally Posted by Richard

And if there isn't time, they can always order take-out from Dragon City in Jonesboro, AR.

The contents of the "Soooooo-eeeeee special " might provoke an international incident, though not as risky as choosing a Tibetan restaurant...

[Dusty]

Originally Posted by Richard

And if there isn't time, they can always order take-out from Dragon City in Jonesboro, AR.


Richard

lol akv beat me to the punch.

[Dusty]

Knight takes Rook.

We may be paying for that Chop Soooooooeeee with yuan.

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2011/01...-product-past/

[Richard]

Originally Posted by Dusty

Knight takes Rook. We may be paying for that Chop Soooooooeeee with yuan.

I remember hearing such predictions before - except it was the ¥ and then the €.

Hu may be on first...but there are a lot of innings and bases to go before he wins the economic world series...and his bench has some serious injuries on its roster.

And so it goes...

Richard

[akv]

Richard,

IIRC

Hu's on First? I Don't Know; Third Base!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wfmvk...eature=related

[Dusty]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_1...58-503544.html

China's rapid growth is often painted as a threat to American interests. But President Obama said today that the country's economic progress benefits the United States and opens the door to greater international stability and humanitarian progress.


"We welcome China's rise," Mr. Obama said at a press conference at the White House with Chinese President Hu Jintao. "I absolutely believe that China's peaceful rise is good for the world, and it's good for America."


He added, "We just want to make sure that that rise occurs in a way that reinforces international norms and international rules, and enhances security and peace, as opposed to it being a source of conflict either in the region or around the world."


Mr. Obama acknowledged today that China's poor human rights record remains a "source of tension" between the two countries. However, he said the nation's development will lift millions out of poverty, "and that's a positive good for the world, and it's something that the United States very much appreciates and respects."


The president also pointed out that China's rise gives the U.S. an opportunity to boost exports.


"We want to sell you all kinds of stuff," Mr. Obama said to laughter. "We want to sell you planes, we want to sell you cars, we want to sell you software. And as President Hu and his government refocuses the economy on expanding domestic demand, that offers opportunities for U.S. businesses, which ultimately translates into U.S. jobs."


Mr. Obama noted that the United States economy is still three times larger than China's, despite the U.S. having one-quarter of China's population. While China has a long way to go to catch up the U.S., he said, its growth means increased trading opportunities between the two nations.



A more robust China will also give the U.S. a stronger partner on international issues like counter-terrorism efforts and climate change, Mr. Obama argued -- so long as China functions as a responsible actor on the world stage.

"That is something that can help create stability and order and prosperity around the world, and that's the kind of partnership that we'd like to see," he said.


President Hu reiterated that point.


"I would like to stress here that no country can remain unscathed in the face of so many global challenges," Hu said. "And no country can singlehandedly tackle global challenges."

[mark46th]

China owns a huge amount of the U.S.'s debt.

"If you owe the bank $500.00, you have a problem. If you owe the bank $1,000,000, the bank has a problem..."

[Peteyboy]

Quiet Professional Dusty your post seems to be exactly what world politics is about, you smile and shake hands while quietly sharpening your knife, which is what I belive China's intentions are and I would hope Obama's, although I wouldn't be surprised if he actually means all the words he said and isn't just saying them to look good for the camera and the world, his idiocracy doesn't seem to surprise me anymore. Hell my Father has said it before when something on the News goes bad with US-Chinnese relations "China is trying to kill us!" I think there is indeed a cold war of sorts bruining since China seems full focused on being the second superpower in the world most of the tensions are in asia one being Taiwan and struggles between both governments and a debate of if the US should send some F-16's to Taiwan, North Korea's leader has just gone to another secret meeting in China, and countries in Asia feel pressured into choosing a side between America or China, not to mention what others have said on here (either that or it was another site) about the Pakis warning us that the Chinese want stealth tecnology/ aircraft. ect.. ect... the evidence goes on and on, I think some Americans (President included) need to relize that China is indeed a threat and will only grow more of one as there economy and there position in the world stage does as well. Yes a cold war is coming and with America's ignorance, China's growing economy and our debt it's not looking good for the good guys.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Comrade Obama will be bowing to Jintao in no time

[PSM]

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

Comrade Obama will be bowing to Jintao in no time.

Fixed it for you, RL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bNoe0RTQYA

Pat

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally Posted by PSM

Fixed it for you, RL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2bNoe0RTQYA

Pat

See? Didn't take long at all! LOL

[PSM]

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

See? Didn't take long at all! LOL

Pat

[mojaveman]

One concern would be a major conflict over Taiwan. Another would be the day when China has the capability to project it's power across the globe and starts becoming more concerned about maintaining it's oil supply.