Let's talk about the election

**Roguish Lawyer** · 05-04-2004, 07:25

I know we're pretty much all Republicans here, but what do you guys think Kerry's chances are? What do you think Bush and Kerry each need to do in order to win in November? What external factors (i.e., things not within the candidates' direct control, such as war progress, economy, etc.) will be most important in determining the outcome of the election?

Libs please chime in too.

DunbarFC · 05-04-2004, 07:41

I think it will be close but Bush will win

The economy has recovered enough so that Kerry can't use that as effectively

I see a constant barrage on Iraq and why haven't we gotten OBL but in the end as I said I see Bush pulling it off

I will go out on a limb and say that Kerry will carry Massachusetts in a landslide

**Bill Harsey** · 05-04-2004, 07:45

First lesson, I never thought Bill Clinton had a chance, let alone twice. Next factor, it's my opinion based on recent observations that our "main stream media" will flush this country down the toilet (example, Iraq war coverage) to get a Democrat elected. Another wild card, Are our enemy combatants savvy enough to try and effect the outcome of a United States Presidential election? Our own media is complicit in this endeavor as judged by tone of news coverage of the alleged Iraq prison abuses.

05-04-2004, 08:06

I think it'll be a landslide (assuming Kerry gets the nomination). Kerry will self-destruct.

**Bill Harsey** · 05-04-2004, 08:13

Greenhat, Thanks, I could see that happening. My day just got a lot better.

Sacamuelas · 05-04-2004, 08:25

It will be close.

I think it is early to tell what issues will become focused on by the undecided voters in the run-up to the election. That is because Kerry's camp hasn't really given ANY details as to how he actually plans on leading the country if elected.

While this does keep the Bush camp from attacking Kerry's position, it hurts him more in the long run because he is being portrayed as a wiffle waffle/non decisive middleman LIB politician.

BTw- I think the current portrayal of Kerry is accurate.

Sigi · 05-04-2004, 08:44

Sadly, most people I talk to in my part of town will not be voting for Bush. I do not share the enthusiasm of the rest of the board that Bush will be re-elected. I am very worried.

Sigi · 05-04-2004, 08:48

Quote:

Originally posted by Sacamuelas

it hurts him more in the long run because he is being portrayed as a wiffle waffle/non decisive middleman LIB politician.

I am not seeing this in the mainstream press, and lets face it that is where most people are getting their information.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 05-04-2004, 08:48

Quote:

Originally posted by Bill Harsey
Next factor, it's my opinion based on recent observations that our "main stream media" will flush this country down the toilet (example, Iraq war coverage) to get a Democrat elected. Another wild card, Are our enemy combatants savvy enough to try and effect the outcome of a United States Presidential election? Our own media is complicit in this endeavor as judged by tone of news coverage of the alleged Iraq prison abuses.

This raises an interesting tangent, which is how you handle public relations for a long war in the information age. I believe that we are breaking new ground in that regard. Americans are impatient, so I think this is quite a challenge for the administration. Do you try to sell progress, or does that set you up for future media criticism?

rubberneck · 05-04-2004, 08:53

I don't think it will even be close. The President has had a very rough go of it the past few weeks. Despite the bad news coming out of Iraq, the Dick Clarke affair and the constant sniping by the media the Presidents poll numbers have either remained constant or gone up. That tells me that the people know what they are getting with the President and the alternative is less attractive to them.

Keep in mind that the President's men haven't even begun to seriously dig through Kerry's voting record, personal past and history of flip flops. The Dems on the other hand used up every dirty trick during the election and it didn't have an effect. When it comes down to brass tacks the President has a very large advantage whne it comes to capital and at the end of the day he will be able to define Kerry and keep him on the defensive through November. The President will win by 10% points going away.

**Bill Harsey** · 05-04-2004, 09:01

RL, Your speaking to serious attention span issues. Look at what advertising on television does to get and keep peoples attention for 15 seconds. Of course we are set up for future media criticism, that's their stock in trade. This may be naive but I never underestimate the capacity for Americans to handle the truth even when it's not good news. Has anyone in broadcast media worked at showing REAL progress in Iraq? All I see spotlighted are the worst possible negatives and this in turn is what the rest of the world judges us by.

DunbarFC · 05-04-2004, 09:13

Americans are more focused on Friends ending and who the next Bachelorette is

That I think is the real issue

Getting their attention long enough to make sure they understand the issues that are really before them

Para · 05-04-2004, 09:13

I think that one of the more serious threats is not whether the population wants Kerry to be President as much as people not wanting President Bush to remain. That, in and of itself, is deeply disturbing that people may not be voting for a canidate, but rather a vote and statement against the other one. IMO, this nation will be in serious trouble if Kerry wins the elections, both domestically and internationally.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 05-04-2004, 09:15

Quote:

Originally posted by DunbarFC
Americans are more focused on Friends ending and who the next Bachelorette is

That I think is the real issue

Getting their attention long enough to make sure they understand the issues that are really before them

That, and also financial results for this quarter rather than for the long term.

Solid · 05-04-2004, 09:37

This is what De Tocqueville argued was a major flaw in the concept of US "democracy" (or whatever the more accurate nomenclature is)- the common person is not well educated when it comes to the economy, society, and politics. He/She therefore looks for short-term indicators, or worse the demagoguery of candidates/media/third parties for advice on who to vote for.
While Bush is by no means 'clean' of demagoguery (no president is), the Dem's are certainly doing it at a high degree.

Solid