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Old 03-05-2020, 21:51   #316
mugwump
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Ro for seasonal flu is slightly over 1. Meaning 1 flu case produces slightly more than q additional case. Covid Ro estimates are all over the map. If you’re using shrine lickers in Iran, it can be 20. In Korea its still estimated to be 2.2, numbers double about every 3.4 days, which is actually not happening, they’re doubling faster.

I’d say Korea is the lab, not that cruise ship. The ship's demographics are too skewed and the situation too artificial. I don’t understand that Slate article. Seasonal flu is rampant in winter when folks are cruising. How many times have you heard of 700 people coming down with the flu on a single ship? I have a friend who cruises continuously post retirement, a 30 day jaunt across the pacific is nothing to him. He’s never heard of more that 2-3 people being treated for the flu. Anecdotal, but smells right.

Folks were terrified of Covid on the Princess and were isolating themselves in their rooms. Food was delivered. Fewer cases should’ve occurred, 700 is a lot. Food borne (fecal) is speculated as well as airborne via some vent shafts.

Korea are testing like mad and finding scads of subclinical cases. Interestingly many have pneumonia on CAT scan but no cough or SOB. Their CFR just edged up from 0.6 to 0.7. Note their med system is overwhelmed now with 2300 waiting for a hospital room or ICU bed.

Fauci is going with <=1 CFR in the US based on Korea. It’d be higher if he was basing estimates on Italy IMO but I guess we’ll see.

Italy looks different from Korea with less testing (but proportionately more than us) and higher deaths and reports of younger ICU patients without underlying disease.

Interesting case descriptions below for the medics.

342C8819-FE4C-4FFD-B263-7A65751AFE37.jpg
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Old 03-06-2020, 00:50   #317
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Fake! Everything is fake!

Chinese trolls are flooding Taiwanese social media giving incorrect advice on handling the outbreak and sowing social discord. At home in Hubei province, Wuhan ants welded into their anthills shout abuse down on the vice prime minister. There are 760 million still under varying degrees of lockdown.

The CCP has to be worried about losing control and the possibility of a Hong Kong-style general strike and uprising. When we’re well and truly in the teeth of this infection here in the US, I’d watch out for Chinese adventurism. Nothing unites the base like a good war. If it’s fast, and they’re all fast at first.

There are Several vids in the linked twitter thread. Tap a vid for audio.

Today vice prime minister Sun Chunlan #孙春兰 visited Wuhan Qingshan Kaiyuan residential community. It’s meant to be a PR show. Residents were not allowed to come out, but things went out of control. They started shouting, “Fake! Everything is fake!” #假的 #全都是假的


https://twitter.com/yaxuecao/status/...582598664?s=21
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Old 03-06-2020, 07:47   #318
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Drugs in shortage/absent

https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scrip...es/default.cfm

Minneapolis-Madison-Milwaukee hospitals have balanced PPE among themselves but all have 5-10 day supply with no incoming inventory. They’re planning on using ineffective measures (Surgical masks instead of N95) for frontline staff.

They’re buggered.
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Old 03-06-2020, 08:56   #319
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Originally Posted by InTheBlack View Post
2250/147 is 15 patients per bed.

365 days in a year divided by 15 patients...

if the cases are evenly spread out over a year, each patient can stay for 24 days. Over 6 months, 12 days.

Did I do that right? Knowing the algebraic equation will allow solving for any input data.

EDIT: did not account for beds being used by "normal" patients. So what is the excess or surge capacity? Will they delay transplant surgery to open an ICU bed for the possibility of a flu patient? What is the triage system for that?

What is the average number of icu beds per capita or 100,000 in urban areas in the USA?

No.

147 icu beds x 15 days per covid stay (which is a WAG but seems reasonable-low) is a capacity of 2,205 icu days.

2,250 projected icu patients x 15 days = 33,750 projected icu days


So, 2205 days capacity vs 33,750 need.

Excess patients beyond capacity die, but 90% in China died at that point anyway.
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Old 03-06-2020, 09:07   #320
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Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick View Post
but I’m not jumping overboard because a communist regime unleashed a virus on the world.
Source or speculation? I'm not seeing any reliable reporting on this. Bonus if you have high side to discuss.
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Old 03-06-2020, 09:13   #321
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Key areas to watch are Milan & Lombardy, Italy. They're not a third world country. 10% of their Doctors & Health Care workers are infected and under quarantine. That's huge, and could be detrimental to our Health Care system if a scenario like that happened here. If infection rates exceed 15% of frontline health care workers, staff will eventually be depleted. The cruise ship "Grand Princess," is now quarantined off the coast of the "Peoples Republic of Kalifornia." One of my patients was on that cruise. If the patient turns up positive, no telling how many people have been affected. One lady who was on that cruise tested positive in Canada. The CDC are tracking down all patients who have had respiratory symptoms from the "Grand Princess" starting from February 11, after a patient died, and several cases turned positive.

https://apnews.com/837274f1bab9af1aa...AH010uU2-4Sws8

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local...mps-up-testing


Edited to add:
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/...rand-princess/

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/s...582129153?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrMCecconi/statu...52849759137798

Last edited by T-Rock; 03-06-2020 at 09:30.
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Old 03-06-2020, 09:46   #322
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I would bet cruise ships stock lots of Tamiflu and hand it out like breath mints to anyone the crew notices with symptoms.

This clinical trial says that surgical masks are just as good as N95 for health workers for seasonal flu / colds : - about 8% got sick for both groups:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam..._oi_190087.pdf

N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel A Randomized Clinical Trial
Lewis J. Radonovich Jr, MD;

IMPORTANCE Clinical studies have been inconclusive about the effectiveness of N95
respirators and medical masks in preventing health care personnel (HCP) from acquiring
workplace viral respiratory infections.

OBJECTIVE To compare the effect of N95 respirators vs medical masks for prevention of
influenza and other viral respiratory infections among HCP.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A cluster randomized pragmatic effectiveness study
conducted at 137 outpatient study sites at 7 US medical centers between September 2011 and
May 2015, with final follow-up in June 2016. Each year for 4 years, during the 12-week period
of peak viral respiratory illness, pairs of outpatient sites (clusters) within each center were
matched and randomly assigned to the N95 respirator or medical mask groups.

INTERVENTIONS Overall, 1993 participants in 189 clusterswere randomly assigned towear N95
respirators (2512 HCP-seasons of observation) and 2058 in 191 clusterswere randomly assigned
towear medical masks (2668 HCP-seasons) when near patients with respiratory illness.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcomewas the incidence of
laboratory-confirmed influenza. Secondary outcomes included incidence of acute respiratory
illness, laboratory-detected respiratory infections, laboratory-confirmed respiratory illness,
and influenzalike illness. Adherence to interventions was assessed.

RESULTS
Among 2862 randomized participants (mean [SD] age, 43 [11.5] years; 2369
[82.8%]) women), 2371 completed the study and accounted for 5180 HCP-seasons.

There were 207 laboratory-confirmed influenza infection events (8.2%of HCP-seasons) in the N95
respirator group and 193 (7.2%of HCP-seasons) in the medical mask group (difference, 1.0%,
[95%CI, −0.5%to 2.5%]; P = .18) (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.18 [95%CI, 0.95-1.45]).

There were 1556 acute respiratory illness events in the respirator group vs 1711 in the mask group
(difference, −21.9 per 1000 HCP-seasons [95%CI, −48.2 to 4.4]; P = .10); 679
laboratory-detected respiratory infections in the respirator group vs 745 in the mask group
(difference, −8.9 per 1000 HCP-seasons, [95%CI, −33.3 to 15.4]; P = .47); 371
laboratory-confirmed respiratory illness events in the respirator group vs 417 in the mask
group (difference, −8.6 per 1000 HCP-seasons [95%CI, −28.2 to 10.9]; P = .39); and 128
influenzalike illness events in the respirator group vs 166 in the mask group (difference, −11.3
per 1000 HCP-seasons [95%CI, −23.8 to 1.3]; P = .08).

In the respirator group, 89.4%of participants reported “always” or “sometimes” wearing their assigned devices vs 90.2%in the mask group.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators vs
medical masks as worn by participants in this trial resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza.

TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01249625
JAMA. 2019;322(9):824-833. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.11645
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Old 03-06-2020, 14:03   #323
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This disease is very infectious. I would posit that in one year, almost everyone will test positive. People with healthy immune systems, children, and people under the age of 70, will be asymptomatic and/or most likely recover without incident. People with pre-existing chronic conditions and the elderly will more likely die. Current cases are not consistently and reliably reported. As the sample size of verified cases increases, the fatality rates will be smaller if current death profiles remain the same.
All of this is assuming that a vaccine is not found. Polio was deadly once too.
Wash your hands, don’t hoard, and take care of the elderly.
This is just MHO. Your mileage may vary.
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Old 03-06-2020, 16:19   #324
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fonzy View Post
Source or speculation? I'm not seeing any reliable reporting on this. Bonus if you have high side to discuss.
Speculation, but assumptions based on known history. If 100,000 Chinese peasants died in a flood and no one was there to report it you wouldn’t know.

“If a tree falls in the woods and no one is around to hear it does it make a sound?”
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Old 03-06-2020, 19:11   #325
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This disease is very infectious. I would posit that in one year, almost everyone will test positive. People with healthy immune systems, children, and people under the age of 70, will be asymptomatic and/or most likely recover without incident. People with pre-existing chronic conditions and the elderly will more likely die. Current cases are not consistently and reliably reported. As the sample size of verified cases increases, the fatality rates will be smaller if current death profiles remain the same.
All of this is assuming that a vaccine is not found. Polio was deadly once too.
Wash your hands, don’t hoard, and take care of the elderly.
This is just MHO. Your mileage may vary.
40% of US males and females are obese vs 5% in China. Obesity is a comorbidity considered on par with heart disease, which many of the obese also have...plus type 2 diabetes.

Don’t assume what you saw in Wuhan will carry over to the US population.

Overweight males of ages down to 30 are dying in Italy. Women, not so much.
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Old 03-06-2020, 19:13   #326
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Old 03-06-2020, 19:20   #327
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Heard this from an 82 year old client today..." All the bad stuff comes from China." I couldn't respond.
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Old 03-06-2020, 19:29   #328
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40% of US males and females are obese vs 5% in China. Obesity is a comorbidity considered on par with heart disease, which many of the obese also have...plus type 2 diabetes.

Don’t assume what you saw in Wuhan will carry over to the US population.

Overweight males of ages down to 30 are dying in Italy. Women, not so much.
I am assuming nothing based on China. I consider obesity a pre-existing chronic condition. I am pointing out that the reliable sample is still small. Time will tell.
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Old 03-06-2020, 20:13   #329
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Why no plan to use our hospital ships to isolate cases?
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Old 03-06-2020, 20:22   #330
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Is the South Korea's capacity to do what they are doing due to being ready to respond to biowarfare unleashed by North Korea? Are they revealing a previously secret capability?
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