Russia admits that it has moved troops in Ukraine

[ddoering]

Soviet style dictator vs a community organizer. I bet I know who will win. Too bad Hillery isn't the pres. At least we would have a set of balls in the WH. On the other hand, this will make the dims look weak. Not a bad thing going into the mid-terms.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by ddoering

Soviet style dictator vs a community organizer. I bet I know who will win. Too bad Hillery isn't the pres. At least we would have a set of balls in the WH. On the other hand, this will make the dims look weak. Not a bad thing going into the mid-terms.

I doubt that the the people who would vote for them perceive it as weakness, nor would they care regardless.

TR

[Utah Bob]

Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.

[ddoering]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

I doubt that the the people who would vote for them perceive it as weakness, nor would they care regardless.

TR

I'd bet 5% of them will. That will be more than enough to hope for change.

[mojaveman]

Is there any possibility that the Russians orchestrated all of the civil unrest in Ukraine so that they could have a reason to invade and occupy? Are there motives at work here that are unknown to the common person?

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by mojaveman

Is there any possibility that the Russians orchestrated all of the civil unrest in Ukraine so that they could justify invading and occupying? Are there motives at work here that are unknown to the common person?

I know Wikipedia isn't particularly popular around here but it's worth throwing in a few links:

Russian-Ukraine Natural Gas disputes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%...e_gas_disputes

2010 Kharkiv Pact, Natural Gas for Naval Base Treaty:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Uk...ral_Gas_treaty

They MAY be relevant.....

But I would think that with $60-80 billion+ in NG value flowing thru Ukraine from Russia to the EU each year...it's big money.

I'm wondering if it's actually in the best interest of Russia AND the EU(including many NATO allies) for Russia to secure Ukraine, and most particularly Ukraine's pipelines.

On one level I can see Russia/EU having aligned interests in security and continuity of natural gas supply.

On another level I can see Russia and the EU competing for Ukraine to see which sphere of influence it falls into.

----------

I'm wondering if Ukraine may represent another milestone in a big picture geopolitical shift?

In the 1980's the Reagan Administration worked hard to smash the Soviet gas pipeline to Western Europe(one of the biggest divides between the US/NATO in the 80's)....who would want to expend precious national treasure to enrich ideological/economic/military rival?

It's looking like the Reagan Doctrine played a significant role in the collapse of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact, but did it simply delay rather than prevent Russian influence over Western Europe/EU/NATO?

Russia sells something like 160 billion cubic meters of natural gas to the EU.

Quite a few European countries have a near total dependency on Russian energy.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_..._energy_sector

What leverage does the US possess over Western Europe anymore?

Are US and EU interests even still aligned in some ways?

I'm almost wondering if Russian/EU interests are strongly aligned on Ukraine......pipeline security being of existential importance, and everything else is details.

Ukraine pipeline disruption would clearly be bad for Russia and the EU, but would it necessarily be bad for the US?

What would happen if Ukraine gas pipelines were disrupted by a couple of professionals?

If Russia and the EU were hurt a bit...Russian income down, and EU expenses up..wouldn't that improve relative US industrial competitiveness and investment attractiveness?

The only aligned interest I personally see between Russia, EU, and the US is specific slices of that massive Ukrainian military stockpile(eclipsing Yugoslavia, Libya, and Syria) from leaking out.

Russia and Turkey partnered up have the means to put a better lock on regional European energy supplies.

There's been some tectonic shifts in the region since the Reagan Administration.

Reagan won that Round in Europe( while the west got fat, dumb, and lazy gloating over the victory) and this Round may have been lost.

----------

Other than keeping an eye on news for Ukraine pipeline security, it looks like a foregone conclusion that Ukraine and the EU will shift away from the US sphere of influence.

Maybe a bit pessimistic and harsh.....but I'm happy to be knocked back with some other ideas/theories.

It may sound a bit strange and disconnected, but when I think about what's happening in Ukraine......I tend to think and worry more about Venezuela.

Maybe a shift towards a Monroe Doctrine 2.0 and a Fortress US/Western Hemisphere policy, and a strong desire to neutralize any Cuban, Russian, Iranian, and/or Chinese influence over Venezuela.

[Sdiver]

Originally Posted by Utah Bob

Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.

Taking a page from the Nazi playbook ..... Host the Olympics, then invade a country.

[mark46th]

Following Putin's strategy of using an existing population of ex-patriot citizens in a neighboring country, Mexican Fuerzas Commandos will be patrolling the halls of Congress tomorrow...

[The Viper]

Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.

Think of the Cold War like the First World War and now as the beginning of World War Two. There has been a 20 year cease fire and now a rearmed and never fully defeated foe has returned to expand and reestablish hegemony. Our leaders will issue hollow threats or simply appease our foe. Then one day a few years down the road it will be to late to negotiate and millions of men of my generation will march off to fight a third world war in little more than a century. Not a good possibility.

[SF_BHT]

Originally Posted by The Viper

Sudetenland/Ukraine. Same same.

Think of the Cold War like the First World War and now as the beginning of World War Two. There has been a 20 year cease fire and now a rearmed and never fully defeated foe has returned to expand and reestablish hegemony. Our leaders will issue hollow threats or simply appease our foe. Then one day a few years down the road it will be to late to negotiate and millions of men of my generation will march of to fight a third world war in little more than a century. Not a good possibility.

Politicians were never any good at History Lessons. They keep making the same mistake over and over even with the book that has pictures staring them in the face.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by mojaveman

Is there any possibility that the Russians orchestrated all of the civil unrest in Ukraine so that they could justify invading and occupying? Are there motives at work here that are unknown to the common person?

Someone has done a pretty good job if ID'ing the gear the invaders are using. Makes a good argument that the invaders are Russian Spastics(sic)..

[afchic]

DoS sent out letter for authorized departure from Kiev today. I have a copy if anyone wants to see it.

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

Someone has done a pretty good job if ID'ing the gear the invaders are using. Makes a good argument that the invaders are Russian Spastics(sic)..

People identified by Russian media as Ukrainian bandits:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BhqC7JpCQAAL8mV.jpg:large

It was pointed out on Twitter that several of them are armed with Russian-made GM-94 grenade launchers, which Ukraine does not have.

[Airbornelawyer]

Some photos of troops in Crimea, some from Twitter, some from Russian media propaganda articles (the ones with Crimean girls welcoming them). Their kit is definitely better than what one would expect of "local" self-defense groups. ANd they generally remain masked and refuse to speak, perhaps to not betray regional accents. Some don't have the bearing I would expect of well-trained proferssionals, but act more like typical Russian conscripts, so while there are certainly Russian SOF there, not all of them are. Probably they include a bunch of naval infantry from Sevastopol and maybe even sailors fitted out in infantry kit.

[akv]

This sucks for the Ukranians, but just like Georgia a few years back, what strategic interest is there here for the US? Russia sees the Ukraine as their breadbasket and a buffer from West. What has really changed here other than now overt control of one of their puppet regimes? Other than hem and haw and some sanctions or offering NATO memberships to other former Soviet satellites, my $.02 any US administration and especially Zero's will deem there isn't enough in it for us here to challenge Russia in their backyard.