iranian escalation

[Max_Tab]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

Still not sure about the severity of damage.

Page 7 of the linked doc indicates a maximum pulse of less than 30,000 volts/meter, regardless of yield.
Page 8 indicated that pulses of 130,000 volts/meter were insufficient to cause damage.

Are electronics really that much more fragile now?

I've heard of custom made smaller EMP weapons, some of which can be aimed.
That's a different matter and you can see why hardening would be necessary in that context.

Just seems like a foolish ploy to detonate a radiological weapon over the US when there might not be much damage.
There are probably other more effective methods of achieving the same ends.

Well moores law says technology doubles every two years, but I think 1 to 1 1/2 years is more accurate. In 2009 the number of transistors in a CPU was 904 million and the latest fourth-gen Intel Core processor has 1.7billion transistors and runs as 3,000,000,000Hz.

[Max_Tab]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

Definitely still a threat.
Especially in certain densely populated areas.

IIRC, small-yield weapons can still do plenty of damage.
The affected area is just much smaller.

Just wondering how widespread the potential damage would really be.
It's a big country.

9/11 didn't result in societal breakdown.

9/11 we had a president that brought us together, plus only a small percentage were directly affected. Imagine larger Percentage affected plus no communications plus no food or medical services and no one coming to help. That's the danger.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by Max_Tab

If they launched it along the eastern seaboard, very rough guesstimate N to S; Jacksonville FL, to NY, E to W ocean to about middle of kansas for a low mega ton weapon.

The weapon yield required is significantly lower than that. A few hundred kilotons would probably do it.

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

Still not sure about the severity of damage.

Page 7 of the linked doc indicates a maximum pulse of less than 30,000 volts/meter, regardless of yield.
Page 8 indicated that pulses of 130,000 volts/meter were insufficient to cause damage.

Are electronics really that much more fragile now?

I've heard of custom made smaller EMP weapons, some of which can be aimed.
That's a different matter and you can see why hardening would be necessary in that context.

Just seems like a foolish ploy to detonate a radiological weapon over the US when there might not be much damage.
There are probably other more effective methods of achieving the same ends.

If you start with Starfish Prime, when we were still largely vaccuum tube based tech, and look at the sensitivity of the very small integrated circuits that we have today, and their increased vulnerability, you might be surprised.

There are multiple phases to the EMP event, with prompt EMP, scattered gammas and inelastic gammas produced by weapon neutrons producing an intermediate time signal from about 1 microsecond to 1 second. The energetic debris entering the ionosphere produces ionization and heating of the E-region. In turn, this causes the geomagnetic field to heave, producing a late-time magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) EMP generally called a heave signal. The effects are both electrical and magnetic.

The damage to the long haul power transmission and communication lines both destroys the transmission systems themselves while creating electrical and magnetic surges that damage the equipment attached to the systems as well as standalone devices which are not adequately protected.

Here is the Oak Ridge National Labs executive summary of the study, the details are at the additional meta reports on the ORNL website:

http://web.ornl.gov/sci/ees/etsd/pes/ferc_emp_gic.shtml

The summary and additional documentation is in the attachments to this post.

Conservative estimates place the recovery time to replace the grid for the majority of the affacted area at a minimum of 12-24 months.

Disregarding the direct damage to devices and the grid, how do you think the population will react to a year long blackout, particularly if the entire nation is affected?

The radiological impact of such an explosion would likely be minimal, indeed, the destruction of the electrical and communications infrastructure and the subsequent societal collapse would likely cause much greater deaths and destruction than a nuclear exchange with the same weapons targeting population centers.

Imagine the U.S. with 90%+ of the electrical and communications systems destroyed for at least a year or two? No power means no refineries, so no fuel, or distribution system either. Virtually everyone on a life support system, dialysis, supplemental oxygen, insulin, long-term medication, geriatrics, NICUs, etc., etc, will die relatively quickly. Disease will run rampant, along with famine and deaths from contaminated water and failed sewage treatment systems. What would we do with inmates incarcerated in the penal systems? How many days of illegal narcotics are available in the U.S. to keep addicts supplied before they run low and turn on hospitals and pharmacies for their meds? What will happen when those dependent on the government dole turn to others for their needs? How will we stop groups of armed thugs from taking whatever they want? How will you stop your neighbor with starving kids from looting the garden that you and your family have to rely on? Who will feed and provide water for the population? Our friends overseas?

Lots of damage beyond the weapons immediate effects. And what do we do in response?

TR

[PSM]

Time to learn code and build heliographs.

Pat

[Max_Tab]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

The weapon yield required is significantly lower than that. A few hundred kilotons would probably do it.

What do you think the Iranians would be able to produce?

Interesting interactive simulation.
http://empcover.com/EMP-Attack-Simulation.html

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by Max_Tab

What do you think the Iranians would be able to produce?

Interesting interactive simulation.
http://empcover.com/EMP-Attack-Simulation.html

With the NKs assistance and ten years?

Enough.

TR

[Max_Tab]

Iran Test-Fires Long-Range Missile

http://mobile.nytimes.com/reuters/20..._r=0&referrer=

[Max_Tab]

Expert: Iran ships a dry run for later nuclear/EMP attack; humiliate Obama


http://m.washingtonexaminer.com/expe...rticle/2544041

[Mills]

Originally Posted by Max_Tab

9/11 we had a president that brought us together, plus only a small percentage were directly affected. Imagine larger Percentage affected plus no communications plus no food or medical services and no one coming to help. That's the danger.

Personally, I think a great deal of us would be somewhat well equipped to deal with the situation.

Its those that rely solely on Mother Government for everything.

Think about it............

No Power, No phones, No bank cards/EBT cards, No unemployment benefits

Imagine something like that happening in a predominately blue state like California, Crime would surge 10000% in a matter of 24 Hours. It would be the ideal situation to create chaos inside our own country without having to step foot on it.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by Mills

Personally, I think a great deal of us would be somewhat well equipped to deal with the situation.

Its those that rely solely on Mother Government for everything.

Think about it............

No Power, No phones, No bank cards/EBT cards, No unemployment benefits

Imagine something like that happening in a predominately blue state like California, Crime would surge 10000% in a matter of 24 Hours. It would be the ideal situation to create chaos inside our own country without having to step foot on it.

Far less than you would imagine, unless you are limiting "us" to Special Forces personnel.

TR

[Max_Tab]

Originally Posted by Mills

Personally, I think a great deal of us would be somewhat well equipped to deal with the situation.

Its those that rely solely on Mother Government for everything.

Think about it............

No Power, No phones, No bank cards/EBT cards, No unemployment benefits

Imagine something like that happening in a predominately blue state like California, Crime would surge 10000% in a matter of 24 Hours. It would be the ideal situation to create chaos inside our own country without having to step foot on it.

My point exactly. Rural areas would do better than the urban areas which would see a massive die off ,of unprecedented proportion. There would be a die off in the rural areas too but they would be better able to adjust and work together to get through it.

The violence in the cities would spread quickly to the suburbs and outlying areas and this would give the rural areas a little bit of time to set up a self defense plan to protect their community/tribe.

[Mills]

Originally Posted by Max_Tab

My point exactly. Rural areas would do better than the urban areas which would see a massive die off ,of unprecedented proportion. There would be a die off in the rural areas too but they would be better able to adjust and work together to get through it.

The violence in the cities would spread quickly to the suburbs and outlying areas and this would give the rural areas a little bit of time to set up a self defense plan to protect their community/tribe.

Can you imagine somewhere like Baltimore or New York City?

Id give either of them 96 hours before being burnt to the ground.

All it takes is one person to throw a rock through a window.............and the whole system will come crashing down.

[MtnGoat]

Well one can look at this as patting the head of the Supreme ruler Ayatollah, or playing with the balls of hardliners or poking the eyes of the Americans. IMO this is just a OPE action and seeing what we are doing. Back to the old days of the "Cold War" style and flexing military muscles.

I will add this to the tin foil hat thinking, side two of thinking. But we have to take threats, whatever or whichever kinds they maybe as face value. Iran is just like the friends that own our country to the east. I'm talking about the Chinese. Well the Iraians do understand or believe in international laws, borders and intellectual rights? Unlike the Chinesse. Iran just like the Chinese have turned up their cyber collection and/or exploitation over the years. Back to last year, I didn't see this in the MSM news around Christmas time. True or not, classified or Unclassified/FOUO or whichever, these attacks against cleared defense contractor (CDC Company within each of these countries can point out many different trends. Hoopoe love to hear what your take would be.

http://freebeacon.com/iranian-backed...military-info/

Yet if you take what the Chinese have been doing with CDCs, who is to say the Iranians are just sitting by doing nothing.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...hs-opened.html

Why does this matter, remember tin hat on, if you can't get into the DoD then like in military faction why do you go after a place that is heavy defended, and strong in planning for an attack. Attack the weakly defended and physically weak. So you can look at it being intellectual gain or commercial commerce espionage or industrial espionage or whatever, but the bottom line factor is what.... Tin foil hat? Your answer here. Look at it this way, why does a company conduct industrial espionage against it's rival competitor?

Hoopoe you are right, if Iran is attacked, Israel will have steel rain of rockets coming down on her. But I will say the same will play true to the U.S. but on a smaller scale. Missiles, homemade one, are not hard to find or construct so within the U.S. boarders we could see smaller attacks along with any seaborne attacks.

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Iranian...-Israel-337825

[The Reaper]

If we don't have an attack sub trailing them with fish targeted and ready to fire, someone is not doing their job.

TR

[mark46th]

I'd be suprised if they clear the Horn of Africa...