Team Selection, Scenario One

[mugwump]

GratefulCitizen is already starting his planning at the tribe level. He and I are in agreement. Now my <Ctl><V>.

First things first: Is the scenario credible? Could it all come down around our ears? My conclusion after considerable research is yes, it is possible, even probable if we stay on our current trajectory. I believe the financial, manufacturing, and logistical systems have become so complex and interdependent--and the social systems so degraded--that it’s only a matter of time before a Black Swan event (e.g. major bank failure, currency re-issuance, credit collapse, coronal mass ejection, pandemic) provides the butterfly-wing flutter that brings the whole thing down. When might it happen? Who knows…might be this December, might be 2024, might be never if we get our act together.

Next for consideration: How long until things get back to normal after a grid-down event? I think the only reasonable answer is “never”. I’m seeing predictions, which seem credible to me, of irreparable and mortal damage to the human, financial, technological, and supply chain resources necessary to maintain the grid, communications, water and sewage, transport, and financial systems within ten days of a major event. Slower events, like a pandemic, would unfold at their own pace until a tipping point was reached (or not, we’ve seen the danger approach and recede before). Then the same ten-day chain of self-reinforcing financial and supply chain contagion would lead to a collapse down to a level that is sustainable within the new reality of reduced capacity at every level of the system. . [See this study for the potential impact of a financial event http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...f_Korowicz.pdf and this for a pandemic http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upl...-pandemic2.pdf. I’ve cited similar studies by Swiss Re, the U of Chi and U of MI in the Pandemic Flu thread. Also look up The Collapse of Complex Societies by Joseph Tainter. There are free PDFs all over the net.]

The challenges in a grid-down environment will be immense. Short-term requirements will include food, water, shelter, sanitation, medical care, security, and social organization (Who’s the boss? What are the laws? What is your strategy for negotiating/merging with other groups? What’s your overarching ethical approach?). Long-term requirements will be the same but will be even more challenging as the pre-crash remnants are consumed or destroyed in the inevitable chaos.

I think the only reasonable hope for survival will be to create, or join, increasingly sophisticated polities that trace the path of historical social development: clans, bands, tribes, chiefdoms, kingdoms, and states. I believe that the good guys and bad guys will follow generally similar trajectories (up to a point, predators will need to evolve to get past the chiefdom stage) when it comes to social organization. If you encounter bad guys with a more sophisticated level of organization, i.e. if your group is a clan and you encounter a predatory tribe, you will be destroyed or assimilated, with all that historically entails for you and your family. Bad ju-ju.

The current challenge involves the formation of a stable extended family or clan. While important in the earliest stages of a collapse, it’s my belief that no matter how well you organize yourself at that level you’re facing ultimate destruction if you stay there for more than a short while. Personally, I’d skip that level and move directly to organizing at the tribe level (local town/community). With several hundred potential foot soldiers for patrolling/defense and additional hundreds that can be directed toward growing food and securing resources your chances of survival improve exponentially. That way you’re much more likely to have a doctor, a lawyer, hopefully farmers and experienced gardeners with canning expertise, maybe a veterinarian, short-term access to heavy equipment, fuel, and materiel for engineering effective defenses, maybe even a farrier or an old coot/hobbyist with blacksmithing experience, etc. You’re also going to have to deal with existing local politicians, from mayors and chiefs of police to self-important little-pond bigwigs—all who think they should have a say once a forum for their opinions is established. The more things change…well, you know.

This is going to involve Civil Affairs and FID/UW in equal measures if any of us are to get out of this alive. My guess is 50% of your tribe won’t make the first anniversary of the crash even if things go really well. Still better than being taken down piecemeal by one or two roving bands.

Sorry, long-winded as usual. This doesn’t change the importance of membership selection as laid out in the original Reaper Challenge it just changes the scale. I’ll go over my thoughts on refugee selection and vetting, internal tribe organization, etc. in a separate post.

Originally Posted by Brush Okie

Long story short I would stay home and organize my neighbors and community. Since it is a federal country thing the problem will be everywhere. Using my CA skills we would keep our neighborhood safe and fed. If someone wants to come to our little town METT-TC and logistics would determine if we allowed them. We have a local prison in town so the question would be what to do with the inmates. I know what my vote would be.

When I was working the Jail Division many years ago, we (a lot of us) discussed this very same issue. We had several plans. Neither were compassionate towards most of the inmate population.

[mojaveman]

Ok, I'll try and respond to this scenario as realistically as possible.

A magnitude 8+ earthquake strikes along the San Andreas fault in Southern California. Civic centers, hospitals, freeway overpasses, electrical power, water supplies - all down. The National Guard as well as active duty Marines and Army all arrive to enforce martial law (happened during the LA riots in '92).

Have already decided I'm staying put. I live in a 3K square foot home on an acre of land in a white middle class area. My greatest concern, and especially during the summer, would be water. It would also be the concern of the other 20 million people living in Southern California. I have two 55 gallon plastic drums full of water on the property but should probably have more. Three immediate neighbors have swimming pools. The Santa Ana River is 10 miles away and Lake Matthews is 5 miles away. If necessary I would procure more water by using a 5 gallon plastic jerry can in a rucksack on my back.

In the first 12 hours I would probably go to the local supermarket which is a mile from my house and buy as many cans of beans as I could. You can eat them hot or cold, they don't require refridgeration, they don't need water to prepare and they are filling and provide plenty of protein.

Already have enough firearms and ammo to feel comfortable with. My weapon of choice in guarding my property would be a 12 guage shotgun with a barrel light and a magazine full of number 4 buckshot.

I live with one other person and can't see wanting to add any others mostly because of food and water requirements. I would only allow relatives to join if they lost their homes or weren't properly prepared. In this case they could help gather food and water and also help with security. All of my relatives are honest hard working people of good character so no problems there. I do have a brother who is a doctor.

If the scenario ended up lasting a long time I would resort to taking small game and fish of which there are plenty not far from where I live.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by MAB32

When I was working the Jail Division many years ago, we (a lot of us) discussed this very same issue. We had several plans. Neither were compassionate towards most of the inmate population.

Honestly, I can't see releasing any prisoner who had any history of being a violent felon. Sorry, but that is just the way I would call it.

Misdemeanors (who probably shouldn't be in a prison, just jailed) and non-violent felons would probably be okay to release if the jails and prisons couldn't be secured and resourced.

Originally Posted by mojaveman

Ok, I'll try and respond to this scenario as realistically as possible.

A magnitude 8+ earthquake has just struck along the San Andreas fault in Southern California. Civic centers, hospitals, freeway overpasses, electrical power, water supplies - all down. The National Guard as well as active duty Marines and Army all arrive to enforce martial law (happened during the LA riots in '92).

Have already decided I'm staying put. I live in a 3k square foot home on an acre of land in a white middle class area. My greatest concern, and especially during the summer, would be water. It would also be the concern of the other 20 million people living in Southern California. I have two 55 gallon plastic drums full of water on the property but should probably have more. Three immediate neighbors have swimming pools. The Santa Ana River is 10 miles away and Lake Matthews is 5 miles away. If necessary I would procure more water by using a 5 gallon plastic jerry can in a rucksack on my back.

In the first 12 hours I would probably go to the local supermarket which is a mile from my house and buy as many cans of beans as I could. You can eat them hot or cold, they don't require refrigeration, they don't need water to prepare and they are filling and provide plenty of protein.

Already have enough firearms and ammo to feel comfortable with. My weapon of choice in guarding my property would be a 12 guage shotgun with a barrel light and a magazine full of number 4 buckshot.

I live with one other person and can't see wanting to add any others mostly because of food and water requirements. I would only allow relatives to join if they lost their homes or weren't properly prepared. In this case they could help gather food and water and also help with security. All of my relatives are honest hard working people of good character so no problems there. I do have a brother who is a doctor.

If the scenario ended up lasting a long time I would resort to taking small game and fish of which there are plenty not far from where I live.

I respect that you have made some preparations, but am not sure that a daily ten mile hump with 45 pounds of water is a sustainable solution. Better to get some BoBs, rainbarrels, and more 55 gallon barrels, and try to coordinate with the neighbors to use pool water. The good news is that 110 gallons of water represents almost two months of drinking water for two people. Probably more like a month with other uses.

You should not count on being able to procure more food, but work to pick up an extra few cans every time you shop. Maybe beans one week, maybe a 50 pound bag of rice the next, if you eat rice. Even if you have plenty of a food item, food fatigue can be a real problem. I would say that you should devote your resources to buying at least a little extra food every week till you have at least two weeks of food that you routinely eat and a way to open cans and cook your food.

A shotgun is a fine weapon for overtly engaging a few targets at less than 50 yards. If that is the limit of your threat, you are adequately armed. You should get plenty of ammo before someone outlaws lead pellets.

Unfortunately, you cannot do all of the tasks you will need to do and pull security 24 hours per day. I would look for like minded neighbors and try to form a "community watch" or other team effort.

20 million people are going to strip every food source and quickly deplete any wildlife that remains in the area. They have the same plan you do.

TR

[QUOTE=The Reaper;531145]Honestly, I can't see releasing any prisoner who had any history of being a violent felon. Sorry, but that is just the way I would call it.

Misdemeanors (who probably shouldn't be in a prison, just jailed) and non-violent felons would probably be okay to release if the jails and prisons couldn't be secured and resourced.



You are absolutely correct Sir. The problem was what "we" were going to do with the rest that were never going to commit another crime again and the smell that would of come from the facility.....later on.

[mugwump]

A polity cannot exist without law. In a truly SHTF scenario you must form a new set of laws and apply them consistently. Prison staff taking it upon themselves to execute violent offenders are murderers. Prison staff who consult with the local authorities, advise them of the issues, and assist them in forming new laws that address the realities of the new environment are patriots and remain honorable members of the sheepdog community.

That prison is going to be a critical point for your defense and is a huge local advantage to your tribe. You don't want it stinky and a monument to shame.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: lawyering is going to be as critical a skill-set as soldiering and farming.

[tonyz]

Originally Posted by mugwump

A polity cannot exist without law. In a truly SHTF scenario you must form a new set of laws and apply them consistently. Prison staff taking it upon themselves to execute violent offenders are murderers. Prison staff who consult with the local authorities, advise them of the issues, and assist them in forming new laws that address the realities of the new environment are patriots and remain honorable members of the sheepdog community.

That prison is going to be a critical point for your defense and is a huge local advantage to your tribe. You don't want it stinky and a monument to shame.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: lawyering is going to be as critical a skill-set as soldiering and farming.

Agree.

The trades, farmers, security, medical and legal/constitutional skills will help the transition back from chaos and survival to a semblance of civilization.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by tonyz

Agree.

The trades, farmers, security, medical and legal/constitutional skills will help the transition back from chaos and survival to a semblance of civilization.

You had me tracking right up to the lawyers part.

TR

[MR2]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

You had me tracking right up to the lawyers part.

TR

You need to have some to keep the guillotine lubricated...

[tonyz]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

You had me tracking right up to the lawyers part.

TR

Yeah - I feel you.

But, good ones can be of some use...sometimes.