The Coming Famine (book and concept)

[nmap]

I came across a NYT book review. I have not yet read the book, but the subject seems worthy of discussion. The title of the book, "The Coming Famine", seems descriptive enough.

LINK

Here's the key excerpt: Much of “The Coming Famine” builds an argument that we’ve jumped off a cliff and that global chaos — a tidal wave of people fleeing their own countries for wherever they can find food — is all but guaranteed.

As the article mentions, dire predictions have been around for awhile, and haven't come true. If such a famine is a possibility, the interesting issue becomes - what do the starving do, and what do we in the U.S. do, assuming that we're somewhat better off than they.

If we reflect on the Irish potato famine, circa 1847, we find LINK. Here are two key phrases:

In the period from 1780 to 1845 it helped double the Irish population from 4 to 8 million.

It is estimated that between 500,000 and 1.5 million people died as a result of the famine while over one million fled the country. By 1911, Ireland's population had dropped to four million.

Notice the numbers. At least 12.5% died, and at least 12.5% departed Ireland. Since the aggregate decline is 50%, the totals could be on the order of 25% who died, and 25% who departed.

As we consider the world of today, the population numbers are larger. Mexico has something over 100 million people, so a famine that affected them would seem to suggest a migration northward of between 12.5 and 25 million people. Other nations, such as India, have around 1.2 billion people, so an Indian migration would look like 150 million to 300 million people.

So...my question. If a global famine were to occur, would mass migration occur, or would larger numbers die in place? And, if they did migrate, would the U.S. attempt to accommodate a near-doubling of its population, or would it use strong methods (however defined) to restrict such movements?

[JJ_BPK]

I think you need some "givens" before you start planning mass migrations.

Things like:

• I think we can limit the mass migration from where ever to the USA??
  
• Mexico: the boarder is a shallow river and/or patch of sand that is traversable with limited resources
  
• India: is semi-isolated with a vast water boundary on three sides, the forth is 40-60 % mountains that are nearly impassable.
  
• Africa: again surrounded by water and only on the North side could you traverse with nominal transportation and resources.
  
• South America, with it's water boundaries also has a natural choke point, The Panama Canal.
  
• Other obstacles of continental proportions limit the mass migration of peoples in any direction.

So while there may be masses of individuals that want to migrate, their transportation is limited because of nature. And then the UN,, who may volunteer to transport the mass to us as a USA World tax..

The exposure to the US can be netted to Mexico and Canada. With some cleaver PR work, we may be able to pipe-line the masses directly to Canada???



This might be a bit silly,, but the key is transportation, with-out which nothing moves.

Unless some entity wants to volunteer to transport bazillions of bodies,, they will stay were they are.

[theis223]

A good find sir. I remember in high school ( liberal public school YMMV) science class where we were shown a film about a study that John B. Calhoun conducted years back where he stuck nearly 3000 mice in a 9ft. cube and watched the effects (chaos) ensue. i cant remember the finer details of what happened however i walked away from the film learning that a hierarchy was created based upon the proximity to the food source, which he gradually decreased as the study progressed. A noted behavior found was that a sect of the population concentrated on grooming and little else, he coined the term "beautiful ones". Could one make the inference that even today, this might be why people today seem so damn obsessed with Hollywood and the like with the "beautiful people"? Or am i overreaching?

Your thoughts sir?

Lol otherwise it might just look like this

[nmap]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

I think you need some "givens" before you start planning mass migrations.

Things like:


This might be a bit silly,, but the key is transportation, with-out which nothing moves.

Unless some entity wants to volunteer to transport bazillions of bodies,, they will stay were they are.

All good points...and yet, I continue to have visions of rusty old freighters filled with masses of desperate people. Could we stop them? Sure. Would we stop them? That seems more of an open question.

Originally Posted by theis223

A good find sir. I remember in high school ... A noted behavior found was that a sect of the population concentrated on grooming and little else, he coined the term "beautiful ones". Could one make the inference that even today, this might be why people today seem so damn obsessed with Hollywood and the like with the "beautiful people"? Or am i overreaching?

Your thoughts sir?

Lol otherwise it might just look like this

Good point. But the study went on to note that after the development of the beautiful ones, came the death of the colony.

I don't think the beautiful people are limited to Hollywood. Rather, they are consumers - the ordinary people who go shopping, who buy shoes and video games, who focus on the satisfaction of immediate needs and the pursuit of a life of pleasure. Their numbers are legion, IMO.

I've attached a PDF of the study...fascinating reading. So much of it replicates the events we see in our cities today.

[tonyz]

Originally Posted by nmap

So...my question. If a global famine were to occur, would mass migration occur, or would larger numbers die in place? And, if they did migrate, would the U.S. attempt to accommodate a near-doubling of its population, or would it use strong methods (however defined) to restrict such movements?

To the first part of your question - although fictional - the work referred to below - describes a credible scenario and may provide some insight into your inquiry - at least on a domestic level.

However, given the power of the will to survive - we have no reason to discount the potential for more extensive migratory possibilities (transportation concerns duly noted). This text has been discussed extensively on this forum so if you have already read it - my apologies.

One Second After, by William R. Forstchen

As to the second part of your question - MOO - refer to the will to survive - I work in a (generally) PC profession but should the SHTF to the extent of your premise (the doubling of the US population and widespread famine) - my guess is all that PC BS goes out the window - fast.

I hope this helps.

[theis223]

Thanks for posting Sir. This might come in handy for a class I have coming up.

[nmap]

Originally Posted by tonyz

To the first part of your question - although fictional - the work referred to below - ...
One Second After, by William R. Forstchen

Yes, absolutely excellent work - and here's a thread that discusses it: LINK

There's a difference here, though - in this scenario, the U.S. still has reasonably abundant food. Imagine that obesity is still a problem in the U.S. as the media beams in images of the starving.

Originally Posted by tonyz

As to the second part of your question - MOO - refer to the will to survive - I work in a (generally) PC profession but should the SHTF to the extent of your premise (the doubling of the US population and widespread famine) - my guess is all that PC BS goes out the window - fast.

I hope this helps.

I appreciate your thoughts and observations - thank you.

Originally Posted by theis223

Thanks for posting Sir. This might come in handy for a class I have coming up.

Glad to hear it!

[Gypsy]

Originally Posted by nmap

If we reflect on the Irish potato famine, circa 1847, we find LINK. Here are two key phrases:

In the period from 1780 to 1845 it helped double the Irish population from 4 to 8 million.

It is estimated that between 500,000 and 1.5 million people died as a result of the famine while over one million fled the country. By 1911, Ireland's population had dropped to four million.

I guess a famine is a famine is a famine but the "potato famine" was actually a blight on the crops of potatoes that were left for the Irish to eat. You know, after the Brits confiscated farms and properties and didn't allow the people to eat the food they grew or the animals they raised for food...because it was exported to Britain.

I'd hazard a guess that many of the people fled, if they could afford it, not just because of the famine but because of the loss of freedoms after the Brits invaded.

[Debo]

I guess a famine is a famine is a famine but the "potato famine" was actually a blight on the crops of potatoes that were left for the Irish to eat. You know, after the Brits confiscated farms and properties and didn't allow the people to eat the food they grew or the animals they raised for food...because it was exported to Britain.

Bingo. There was plenty of food to eat in Ireland. It was all packaged up, put on wagons under armed guard and shipped to England where it could be sold while the Irish starved to death. For every ship carrying crappy Indian Maize that was bought with donations and shipped from the USA, there were 7 ships full of Beef, Pork, Grains etc, leaving Ireland to be sold abroad. The 1847 potato blight hit over a dozen other countries around Europe and Asia. All of them lost their potato crop. Ireland was the only one that had a famine. The reason so many Irish grew and ate potatoes is because it is just about the only crop that you can feed 100% of your population with less than 25% of the available land. You take that away and you are left with genocide.


Read Paddy's Lament by Thomas Gallagher if you want to learn more. http://www.amazon.com/Paddys-Lament-.../dp/0156707004



I agree that food is going to be a huge issue in the next 5 to 100 years. I have a garden. You?


D.

[Saoirse]

Gyspy...ya beat me to it. Spot on, girl!

[nmap]

Gypsy, Debo, Saoirse - thank you for correcting my understanding of history. I had recognized that the Ukrainian famine was imposed - I had not known that the Irish famine was.

Now about gardens...I fear I have whatever the opposite of a green thumb is. And, too, there's the issue of calories - growing a few cherry tomatoes just isn't going to carry anyone through. But I do agree that an extensive garden and a few chickens would make weathering the storm easier.

[Debo]

Start listening to this guy- Jack Spirko http://www.thesurvivalpodcast.com/

And check out this resource- http://www.backyardfoodproduction.com/tsp


Even a meager garden will help extend your stores. Someone with 2 years of MRE's stacked up will still run out of food after let's see....two years. Momma and I just put up our first canning: 6 jars of dill pickles, 7 jars of bread and butter pickles, and 7 jars of salsa. Our fall garden is going to be slim as we are moving this week and won't have time to get a good one in at our new "estate". However, next Spring...it is ON. Our goal is that 15% of everything we eat will come out of the garden/hunting next year. Hopefully 15% of our power will be self produced as well. Those are the goals anyway. We'll see how deployments and such will throw a wrench in it.



D.

[Gypsy]

Originally Posted by Debo

Read Paddy's Lament by Thomas Gallagher if you want to learn more. http://www.amazon.com/Paddys-Lament-.../dp/0156707004


D.

Aye, a great read.

[GratefulCitizen]

Food for thought.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/...tember_14.html

[nmap]

Is food - along with agricultural land - the "next big thing"? I begin to suspect so. If that's the case, it has some interesting implications for the global balance of power - and it may be advantageous to the U.S.


LINK

Excerpt: Last week's long-delayed report by the World Bank suggests that purchases in developing countries rose to 45m hectares in 2009, a ten-fold jump from levels of the last decade. Two thirds have been in Africa, where institutions offer weak defence.

As is by now well-known, sovereign wealth funds from the Mid-East, as well as state-entities from China, the Pacific Rim, and even India are trying to lock up chunks of the world's future food supply. Western agribusiness is trying to beat them to it. Western funds - many listed on London's AIM exchange - are in turn trying to beat them. The NGO GRAIN, and farmlandgrab.com, have both documented the stampede in detail.