If Democrats ignore health-care polls, midterms will be costly

[The Reaper]

Health care comments by the Dems' pollsters.

TR

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...d=opinionsbox1

If Democrats ignore health-care polls, midterms will be costly
By Patrick H. Caddell and Douglas E. Schoen
Friday, March 12, 2010

In "The March of Folly," Barbara Tuchman asked, "Why do holders of high office so often act contrary to the way reason points and enlightened self-interest suggests?" Her assessment of self-deception -- "acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts" -- captures the conditions that are gripping President Obama and the Democratic Party leadership as they renew their efforts to enact health-care reform.

Their blind persistence in the face of reality threatens to turn this political march of folly into an electoral rout in November. In the wake of the stinging loss in Massachusetts, there was a moment when the president and the Democratic leadership seemed to realize the reality of the health-care situation. Yet like some seductive siren of Greek mythology, the lure of health-care reform has arisen again.

As pollsters to the past two Democratic presidents, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, respectively, we feel compelled to challenge the myths that seem to be prevailing in the political discourse and to once again urge a change in course before it is too late. At stake is the kind of mainstream, common-sense Democratic Party that we believe is crucial to the success of the American enterprise.

Bluntly put, this is the political reality:

First, the battle for public opinion has been lost. Comprehensive health care has been lost. If it fails, as appears possible, Democrats will face the brunt of the electorate's reaction. If it passes, however, Democrats will face a far greater calamitous reaction at the polls. Wishing, praying or pretending will not change these outcomes.

Nothing has been more disconcerting than to watch Democratic politicians and their media supporters deceive themselves into believing that the public favors the Democrats' current health-care plan. Yes, most Americans believe, as we do, that real health-care reform is needed. And yes, certain proposals in the plan are supported by the public.

However, a solid majority of Americans opposes the massive health-reform plan. Four-fifths of those who oppose the plan strongly oppose it, according to Rasmussen polling this week, while only half of those who support the plan do so strongly. Many more Americans believe the legislation will worsen their health care, cost them more personally and add significantly to the national deficit. Never in our experience as pollsters can we recall such self-deluding misconstruction of survey data.

The White House document released Thursday arguing that reform is becoming more popular is in large part fighting the last war. This isn't 1994; it's 2010. And the bottom line is that the American public is overwhelmingly against this bill in its totality even if they like some of its parts.

The notion that once enactment is forced, the public will suddenly embrace health-care reform could not be further from the truth -- and is likely to become a rallying cry for disaffected Republicans, independents and, yes, Democrats.

Second, the country is moving away from big government, with distrust growing more generally toward the role of government in our lives. Scott Rasmussen asked last month whose decisions people feared more in health care: that of the federal government or of insurance companies. By 51 percent to 39 percent, respondents feared the decisions of federal government more. This is astounding given the generally negative perception of insurance companies.

CNN found last month that 56 percent of Americans believe that the government has become so powerful it constitutes an immediate threat to the freedom and rights of citizens. When only 21 percent of Americans say that Washington operates with the consent of the governed, as was also reported last month, we face an alarming crisis.

Health care is no longer a debate about the merits of specific initiatives. Since the spectacle of Christmas dealmaking to ensure passage of the Senate bill, the issue, in voters' minds, has become less about health care than about the government and a political majority that will neither hear nor heed the will of the people.

Voters are hardly enthralled with the GOP, but the Democrats are pursuing policies that are out of step with the way ordinary Americans think and feel about politics and government. Barring some change of approach, they will be punished severely at the polls.

Now, we vigorously opposed Republican efforts in the Bush administration to employ the "nuclear option" in judicial confirmations. We are similarly concerned by Democrats' efforts to manipulate passage of a health-care bill. Doing so in the face of constant majority opposition invites a backlash against the party at every level -- and at a time when it already faces the prospect of losing 30 or more House seats and eight or more Senate seats.

For Democrats to begin turning around their political fortunes there has to be a frank acknowledgement that the comprehensive health-care initiative is a failure, regardless of whether it passes. There are enough Republican and Democratic proposals -- such as purchasing insurance across state lines, malpractice reform, incrementally increasing coverage, initiatives to hold down costs, covering preexisting conditions and ensuring portability -- that can win bipartisan support. It is not a question of starting over but of taking the best of both parties and presenting that as representative of what we need to do to achieve meaningful reform. Such a proposal could even become a template for the central agenda items for the American people: jobs and economic development.

Unless the Democrats fundamentally change their approach, they will produce not just a march of folly but also run the risk of unmitigated disaster in November.

Patrick H. Caddell is a political commentator and former pollster. Douglas E. Schoen, a pollster, is the author of "The Political Fix."

[greenberetTFS]

Very interesting post TR..................

Big Teddy

[Gypsy]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

In New York, the legislature are trying to ban salt to an extensive degree in restaurants. Their reasoning? Because it will "help reduce healthcare costs in the state." Yeah, that is what happens when you let the government pay for healthcare, they get to start dictating to you in all sorts of new ways

Since I had some problems a couple of years ago and cut down on salt I've discovered many new spices to enhance foods. If I want/need to salt foods I'll use a good quality sea salt. BUT, that doesn't mean I want or need "big brother" telling me what to do.

When I heard this report yesterday I had two thoughts. One, this is exactly the type of thing that will happen if the debacle known as the health care bill is passed. Two, I don't know Chef Penn...but I kept imagining this voice in the back of my head telling the government in all kinds of colorful ways what they could do with their legislature.

Back to the article, the dims really don't care what the people who put them into office want...which is exactly why it is time to clean house and to keep doing so until the message is heard.

[echoes]

Originally Posted by Gypsy

Since I had some problems a couple of years ago and cut down on salt I've discovered many new spices to enhance foods. If I want/need to salt foods I'll use a good quality sea salt. BUT, that doesn't mean I want or need "big brother" telling me what to do.

When I heard this report yesterday I had two thoughts. One, this is exactly the type of thing that will happen if the debacle known as the health care bill is passed. Two, I don't know Chef Penn...but I kept imagining this voice in the back of my head telling the government in all kinds of colorful ways what they could do with their legislature.

Back to the article, the dims really don't care what the people who put them into office want...which is exactly why it is time to clean house and to keep doing so until the message is heard.

Great post Gypsy, you hit the nail on the head of this argument, IMHO.

And though I too do not know Chef Penn, the ones I do know are all saying the same thing...This, ladies and gentlemen, is The Government trying to espouse what we as citizens can and cannot do!

It is none of thier fucking business weather or not I like to put salt in my recipies, and as salt is my personal "firearm," they better not try and take it away! If only the American Public would wake up and smell the shit that Washington is shoveling...it is all about Them knowing what is best for us.

Bullshit, IMVHO!!!

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

In New York, the legislature are trying to ban salt to an extensive degree in restaurants. Their reasoning? Because it will "help reduce healthcare costs in the state." Yeah, that is what happens when you let the government pay for healthcare, they get to start dictating to you in all sorts of new ways

Democrats are Socialists plain and simple.

While most look at this as a "health care" I see it as socialism. And yes, once they pass government controlled healthcare they will dicate more than your intake of salt. Your daily caloric intake will be next. Then what foods you will eat and when. etc etc etc

Socialism, it's what's for dinner.

[Pete]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

.........If (or once) it passes, the only way to get rid of it is repeal, but that will require solid Republican majorities in the House, Senate, and a solid Republican president, and all those Republicans will have to be solid Republicans or else the Republicans will have the problems of the Democrats with trying to pass, so it will be very unlikely it could be repealed. .................

Once passed - it will never be repealed. The D's know it and the leadership is willing to take a 4 year hit to get it done.

The slight of hand of the D's and stupidity of the American people is breathtaking.

The only way this looks somewhat appealing for the next couple of years is because the government starts collecting now but the big payouts don't start for 4 years. So the budget projections look good - RIGHT NOW.

They get toasted this year - no big deal. Obama gets toasted in three years - no big deal. The budget explodes - the Republicans try to cut something - anything the next year - and the D's ride to the rescue to save the little people from the "Evil Rich".

Then its over, finished, the end ................

[Paslode]

Originally Posted by echoes

Great post Gypsy, you hit the nail on the head of this argument, IMHO.

And though I too do not know Chef Penn, the ones I do know are all saying the same thing...This, ladies and gentlemen, is The Government trying to espouse what we as citizens can and cannot do!

It is none of thier fucking business weather or not I like to put salt in my recipies, and as salt is my personal "firearm," they better not try and take it away! If only the American Public would wake up and smell the shit that Washington is shoveling...it is all about Them knowing what is best for us.

Bullshit, IMVHO!!!

Salt and Soft drinks could become more valuable than Gold

As TS said, first salt, then what, when and how much you can eat. Sooner or later your BMI will be a determining factor just like a Credit Score from Experion.

Madness!

[doctom54]

Originally Posted by Paslode

Sooner or later your BMI will be a determining factor just like a Credit Score from Experion.

Madness!

We are all ready there. My office still uses paper charts. We get several request weekly from insurance companies on what is a patients BMI. It is part of the Anthem (old Blue Cross) contract that the BMI has to be documented every visit. They use it for risk stratification and as an excuse to raise rates.
The future is here and it is ugly.
As a side note there is a big push for electronic medical records (EMR). They do NOT help the physician they only allow the insurance company or the government to monitor your BMI or whatever else they like much easier. Your insurance company has legal access to them and they are allowed under HIPPA to share that information with any other insurance company.
"1984" or "Brave New World" take your pick

[Paslode]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

Perhaps the Supreme Court will overturn the bill if signed into law? I believe it requires people to purchase health insurance by law or be fined, that might be declared un-Constitutional...?

Probably take a year or two to get it to court, by then the bureaucracy is in place and the damage is done.

[Paslode]

Once it is passed it will likely add 30 million (probably half or better of which are illegal) onto the dole. So maybe the next step would be immigration reform/ grant amnesty to those 15-20 million illegals who now have 'the right' to health care and potentially create 15-20 million new tax payers and voters whom are likely to vote Democrat.

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by Paslode

Once it is passed it will likely add 30 million (probably half or better of which are illegal) onto the dole. So maybe the next step would be immigration reform/ grant amnesty to those 15-20 million illegals who now have 'the right' to health care and potentially create 15-20 million new tax payers and voters whom are likely to vote Democrat.

You been reading from Comrade Rahm Emanuel's play book?

[BlackHills]

Originally Posted by Brush Okie

Doubtful. The govt set the precident years ago with requiring car insurance, mandatory helmets on motorcycles and mandatory wearing of seat belts. While it seemed like a great idea at the time what many people did not get then or now is it set case law in allowing the govt to intrude into your life and to protect you from yourself.

Those are all voluntary actions. No one is forced to drive a car or a motorcycle and if they choose to do so then they follow the rules. Those rules are also set by the states rather than by the Feds. I think it's quite a bit different than taking away the choice to buy health insurance.

[Paslode]

Originally Posted by Team Sergeant

You been reading from Comrade Rahm Emanuel's play book?

Nah, I've just been reading/listening, kicking it all around in my head and waking up at 3:00 AM every morning

[CSM-H]

Hey to all, Got an interesting e-mail this morning that seems like a good idea. Vote what ever party floats your boat, both sides have some dirty laundry in this. Just ensure you vote agaisnt the incumbent......We vote them all out, maybe they'll get the message, their "job" was supposed to be about serving the country/US, wasn't supposed to be a profession. just a thought. CSM-H

[Pete]

Barack Obama threatens to withdraw support from wavering Democrats

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...Democrats.html

"The president will refuse to make fund-raising visits during November elections to any district whose representative has not backed the bill.

A one-night presidential appearance can bring in hundreds of thousands of dollars in funds which would otherwise take months to accumulate through cold-calling by campaign volunteers.

Mr Obama's threat came as the year-long debate over his signature domestic policy entered its final week.

Mr Obama is personally telephoning congressmen who are still on the fence this week, in between several personal appearances devoted toward swinging public opinion....................."

Is this acting Presidential?