Insurgency and Civil COIN Indicators

[stuW]

Hello All,

I am presently completing a masters thesis where I attempt to measure the impact of Civil COIN on the insurgency in Baghdad. Civil COIN refers to the use of public goods and services and government improvements to weaken the appeal of an insurgency to the civilian population. In order to complete my paper, I have attempted to construct a list of indicators that may be effective in identifying 1) an insurgency is growing and 2) that Civil COIN is hindering an insurgency and its support. While my request is selfish to the extent that it helps me write my paper, I do believe constructing a list of COIN indicators may be valuable to COIN practitioners.

My list is not original and comes from various sources, at times with empirical support, but I would be interested in your input on these indicators. Any suggestions or additions would be attributed to this website and the user name (or the user if he/she is willing to provide his name). Thanks in advance for any suggestions, and I am willing to answer any questions you have about the indicators listed below.

Note: Many of the indicators will mirror each other, though there are some subtleties. Just as the solution to a problem is not necessarily the opposite of its cause, effective Civil COIN can not be indicated entirely through the opposite of insurgency indicators.

Thank you in advance for any input you may be able to provide.

Stu

Indicators suggesting increased support for Insurgency:
1. Legitimacy of host government
2. Establishment of counter government and services
3. Level of anti-Western sentiment
4. Identification with a global Muslim nation
5. Unrest and violence
6. Strength and support of local insurgency
7. Degree of political control by sectarian actors

Indicators measuring Civil COIN success against an insurgency:
1. Popularity of insurgency
2. Competent/Accountable host government involved in reconstruction
3. Popular Government
4. Economic Development
5. Democratic Government
6. Level of Social-political groups' involvement in reconstruction
7. Security improvements

[Richard]

Here's a list of CA units and contact info - including those around your AO - I'd contact one near you, tell them your needs, and - because I would assume they've got the best stats on this matter - see what they might be able to help you with.

http://www.civilaffairsassoc.org/caunits.htm

One thing - you might sell them the idea that your efforts would also be of benefit to their archival and research needs, too.

Good luck!

Richard's $.02

[stuW]

Hi Richard,

Thanks for the idea. I have been in contact with CA people and used that website to get in touch with units. I've conducted interviews with military and civilian officers for my research, in addition to regressing time series data correlating production of electricity against insurgent attacks. Findings are interesting and somewhat surprising to me, although that may not be the case for people who see this type of work everyday.

If you or any other people are interested in my findings, I would be happy to forward them along when complete, although I would point out I am a 24 year old punk with no military experience, resulting in a questionable ability to actually contribute to the field.

Best regards,

Stuart

Originally Posted by Richard

Here's a list of CA units and contact info - including those around your AO - I'd contact one near you, tell them your needs, and - because I would assume they've got the best stats on this matter - see what they might be able to help you with.

http://www.civilaffairsassoc.org/caunits.htm

One thing - you might sell them the idea that your efforts would also be of benefit to their archival and research needs, too.

Good luck!

Richard's $.02