The Size of the Threat

[Richard]

A graphic offering a good depiction of the size and complexity of the DHS mission to protect America from the threat of a terrorist attack - and this is just one of a number of ways the US could be attacked yet again.

Richard's $.02

A Threat In Every Port
Lawrence Wein, NYT, 14 Jun 2009

WHILE President Obama’s future vision of “a world with no nuclear weapons” is certainly laudable, for the present America still needs to do everything it can to prevent a terrorist from detonating such a bomb on our soil.

The Domestic Nuclear Detection Office, part of the Department of Homeland Security, is in charge of developing a worldwide nuclear-detection system that, primarily, would use technology to monitor vehicles and shipping containers along the various transportation networks by which nuclear weapons could be smuggled into America. Yet the Government Accountability Office found last year that the detection office “lacks an overarching strategic plan,” despite the $2.8 billion a year spent on the initiative.

How should the detection office proceed? The best way to view the problem strategically is through game theory. In this case, the government plays first and uses its budget to place detection resources — technology, security experts and the like — at the various “nodes” along the transportation network, like seaports, airports and border stations. The terrorists, in turn, can be expected to choose the path that gives them the best chance to carry out an attack.

As the accompanying chart illustrates, there are a dizzying number of paths that terrorists could use to transport a foreign-built weapon to an American target city — 132 variations, in fact, taking into consideration all four likely modes of transport: commercial airplane, cargo airplane, container ship and cruise ship.

(cont'd)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/op...tml?ref=global

[nmap]

Interesting problems!

I guess my perception is that the challenges - especially when one expands beyond nuclear weapons and into other possibilities - are such that a successful action by the bad guys is highly probable.

Back many years ago, a brief course in system safety suggested that one could multiply probabilities. So if we're 99% safe each year, then we only have 90% safety over 10 years. The odds get worse year by year, and also if multiple attempts each year are assumed.

My purely rhetorical question is why the bad guys haven't attacked. I guess one should not question good fortune.

[Richard]

My purely rhetorical question is why the bad guys haven't attacked.

Oh - they've tried. Be thankful for the sheepdogs whose allegience to this nation's ideals and citizens remains resolute.

Richard's $.02

[PRB]

There have been some 'huge' tries that have been defeated...I know of one that would have made 911 pale by comparison.
The amount of container ships coming into port everyday with thousands of containers..
Thousands of 18 wheelers stacked at the drive ports from Mexico..
The trains from Mexico run all day long...
Aircraft...
illegal foot traffic
it is an amazing and daunting challenge that can only work with excellent heads up intel.

[MVP]

A few months back there was a video on the internet of a speech given by a Kuwaitee university professor. In that speech, he proposed attacking the White House using biologicals smuggled in from Mexico. The threat does not have to be nuclear.

MVP

[nmap]

Originally Posted by Richard

Oh - they've tried. Be thankful for the sheepdogs whose allegience to this nation's ideals and citizens remains resolute.

Richard's $.02

Yes - I am truly thankful for their efforts.

Originally Posted by MVP

A few months back there was a video on the internet of a speech given by a Kuwaitee university professor. In that speech, he proposed attacking the White House using biologicals smuggled in from Mexico. The threat does not have to be nuclear.

MVP

Long ago (but not far away), I met a fellow with a strong background in immunology. We explored a variety of ideas to produce biologicals for resale to research supply houses. Two problems we faced were that the only place for the lab was his garage - and he had a family that included two small children. And many of the biologicals were horrifically poisonous. Those were deal killers. (pun intended).

The problem is, if two individuals looking to make a few dollars can stumble across such things, then the risk of someone going into production has to be substantial. I suppose the sheepdogs have a lot to keep them busy.

[Richard]

The threat does not have to be nuclear.

- and this is just one of a number of ways the US could be attacked yet again.

It's been said.

Richard's $.02