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The presidential election is not a popularity contest for a majority of the voters, it is about winning the right states out of the 50 available.
Winning a state with a 90% nets you no more electoral votes than 50% +1.
In this system, heavily polarized states are less relevant than ones which are close.
RealClearPolitics.com has not updated their electoral count despite the fact that the popular votes have flopped and the majority of the money in realtrade is now on McCain.
My personal observation was that McCain was a lot closer to a majority in more of the toss-up states than Obama was, and that most of the leaners were going to break for McCain.
Either way, the numbers are just a snapshot in time, like predicting the winner of a baseball game in the middle of it. The only time the score matters is when the votes are all in, or the game is over.
TR
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"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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