Georgia/Adjaria trouble brewing

[danjam]

I don't know if this is going to turn into armed conflict, however I think the ingredients are there.
Russia seems to back the Adjarian side because it suspects Georgia is "allowing" Chechen rebels to stay there, or at least use it as a safe haven and jump off for attacks.
The US is supporting Georgia. This could be for many reasons, one being it is a new democratic country. Another is locality.

The thought of a great smuggling route comes to mind, if the Adjarian side does "win" it's independance.


Any thoughts on the effect of a conflict there might effect the region etc...?

[danjam]

An interesting read is the Eurasia Overview of Patterns of Global Terrorism released by the State Department.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/securi...03_31621pf.htm

[Airbornelawyer]

Russia supported the Ajars long before the Chechen War began. Russia is using the Ajars as proxies to retain its influence in the Caucasus, especially to leverage the Georgians into permitting the Russian Armed Forces to maintain its Soviet-era bases in the Georgian Republic.

Russia is also concerned at US inroads in the region. We have begun training and equipping the Georgian armed forces and have increased military cooperation with Azerbaijan as well. Both of these countries have contingents in Iraq, and Georgia even announced it would increase its force in the wake of the Spanish withdrawal.

[lrd]

Eplosives laid at oil terminal in separatist Georgian region - UPDATE
TBILISI, Georgia, May 05, 2004 (AFX-Europe via COMTEX) --

TBILISI, Georgia (AFX) - The oil terminal in Batumi has been mined by the separatist leadership of Adjara, the defense minister of Georgia said in remarks broadcast by national television.

"We have information that explosives have been laid at the oil terminal. If these explosives are set off, there will be massive destruction," Defense Minister Gela Bezhuashvili said.

Bezhuashvili also said he has information that an attack is being planned against a Russian military base near the city.

"There is a danger that a provocation is being prepared against the Russian base and against the Russian officers and their families," he said.

He did not say how he obtained this information.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

Copyright 2004. AFX News Ltd. All rights reserved.

[danjam]

May 12th has been given as a deadline for handing over weapons/power.

People seem to be trying to voice their support for the Georgian government by demonstrating, however it does not look like the Adjari leader is going to give up.

I wonder if there will be an influx of Jihadis to this area of conflict, since the Adjari region is mainly muslim, and Georgia is being "helped" by the US.
Which side the Russian government will take, if any.
Oil is a part of this game as well.

[danjam]

Game is up. I guess the offer of safe passage to Russia, probably taking a stack of cash with him seemed better than making a fight for it.
So it would seem that it was monetory and not idiological reasons that this near war was about.