Open Source INTSUM: Monday, Oct. 17, 2005

[Airbornelawyer]

From Various Sources:

• The Ramadi Problem : "Ramadi remains a focus of insurgent attacks and Coalition efforts to suppress them. Elections turnout during Saturday’s referendum on the constitution was light in Ramadi, with an estimated 2,000 votes cast of a city of over 400,000, and five U.S. and two Iraqi soldiers were killed by a roadside bomb on Election Day."
• Back to the Syrian Border: "Iraq has successfully conducted its referendum on the proposed constitution with a minimal amount of violence, an estimated thirteen security incidents nation wide. al Qaeda's Great Ramadan Offensive has failed. The Washington Post reports 'Turnout was strong in three heavily Sunni provinces that had been expected to vote against it: Salahuddin, with 75 percent turnout reported by the local electoral director; Diyala, with 65 percent turnout; and Anbar, whose provincial total was not released Saturday.' Pamela Hess explores the potential outcomes of the vote. As the Iraqis focus on the tallying of the votes, attention turns to Syria."

• 500 more spies to recruited for ASIO: "ASIO is to be boosted with 500 extra agents and up to $50 million more in annual funding. The latest terror attacks in Bali and London have prompted the move, to be announced today by Attorney-General Philip Ruddock. The build-up is part of a five-year plan to strengthen the terrorist and espionage-fighting capabilities of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation - the nation's frontline intelligence-gathering agency. ASIO will get the extra staff to improve the collection and analysis of intelligence and increase its covert surveillance expertise. Its $200 million annual budget will get a big boost so that by 2010 the organisation will have 1500 agents. At present, ASIO has fewer than 1000 agents - but that is double what its numbers were on September 11, 2001, when the World Trade Centre in New York was attacked."

• Turning T-64s into Bulats. "Ukraine is building a modern armor force by modernizing two decade old T-64B tanks, and turning them into new models called Bulat. …"
• Many Missile Boats in the Taiwan Straits. "Taiwan has signed a deal to produce up to 29 additional guided-missile patrol boats. These are Kuang Hua VI class boats, and are part of Taiwan’s modernization program. These boats are to replace 47 older Hai Ou-class (“Seagull”) boats. …"

• Navy to draft amphibious vessel plan. The Canadian navy is drafting a plan to acquire two large amphibious assault ships capable of transporting thousands of troops and dozens of tanks and trucks across the seas. …

• Second Contingent of Australian Troops Farewelled to Southern Iraq: "Around 450 Australian Defence Force soldiers who form the next rotation of the Al Muthanna Task Group heading for Iraq were officially farewelled in Darwin today [Oct. 15]. … The Task Group of around 450 personnel will comprise soldiers predominantly from the 5th/7th Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment, from Darwin’s 1st Brigade led by Lieutenant Colonel Peter Short. …"

• Operation Pampa 2005: Official site of the joint exercise of the Brazilian armed forces, taking place from October 10 to October 20.

• South Asia Terrorism Update

[Airbornelawyer]

From the RFE/RL Newsline:

Russia

• RADICAL CHECHEN FIELD COMMANDER DIVULGES DETAILS OF NALCHIK RAID. In an e-mail to the website kavkazcenter.com that was reposted on 17 October on chechenpress.org, Shamil Basaev said that he contributed to the planning of the 13 October multiple attacks on police, army, and Federal Security Service (FSB) facilities in Nalchik, capital of the Kabardino-Balkaria Republic, in which he said 217 militants participated. Basaev confirmed earlier reports that the fighters who staged those attacks belong to the Kabardino-Balkar sector of the Caucasus Front, and he named the commander (amir) of that sector, who he said also commanded the Nalchik raid, as Seyfullah. Seyfullah was one of 10 amirs appointed in May by Abdul-Khalim Sadullaev, the successor to slain Chechen President and resistance commander Aslan Maskhadov. Basaev said two other commanders (of the Ossetian and Krasnodar sectors) also participated in the Nalchik attack and were slightly wounded. Basaev said his own deputy, whom he identified as Ilyas Gorchknanov, amir of the Ingush Djamaat, was killed in the Nalchik fighting.

• KABARDINO-BALKAR MILITANT GROUP CONFIRMS ITS TIES TO CHECHEN RESISTANCE
  The press center of Kabardino-Balkaria's Yarmuk djamaat issued a statement, carried by chechenpress.org on 17 October, confirming its members' participation in the Nalchik raids. Russian media quoted local security personnel as having claimed to have wiped out Yarmuk in two raids in Nalchik in January and late April of this year. The statement confirmed that Yarmuk is part of the Kabardino-Balkar sector of the Caucasus Front. Yarmuk further adduced and refuted three factors frequently cited in the Russian media as contributing to the rise of radical Islam in the North Caucasus. Those factors are economic stagnation and high unemployment, Russia's misguided and counterproductive policy towards the North Caucasus, and a struggle for power among local clans. The Yarmuk statement affirmed that its members are Muslims and are fighting "the Russian occupiers and their godless local minions in order to impose the law of Allah, protecting our religion, honor, and native land."

• SECURITY AND DEFENSE MINISTERS GIVE DETAILS OF OPERATION. Interior Minister Nurgaliev, whose ministry coordinated the security operation in Nalchik, said in an interview with Channel One on 16 October that most of the attackers were local residents between the ages of 20 and 25. He said that the goal of the militants was to capture the local security services' weapons and the airport in advance of a large-scale operation scheduled for 4 November. The November date would coincide with the end of the Ramadan fast. However, on 10 October, law-enforcement agencies in Nalchik discovered a large arms cache, including 550 kilograms of explosives, and obtained information about the impending attack. This, according to Nurgaliev, pushed the militants into starting their attack earlier. Nurgaliev said that the local militant group Yarmuk appeared to be much stronger in Kabardino-Balkaria than security organs had thought. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said in India on 15 October that there was no "attack" on Nalchik, NTV reported. "Nobody invaded Nalchik. It was local underground bandits," he said.

• SPECIALISTS SKEPTICAL ABOUT OFFICIAL VERSION OF NALCHIK EVENTS. Mikhail Aleksandrov, the head of the Commonwealth of Independent States Institute's Caucasus department, said that Nalchik is not an isolated event, but one element in a continuing underground war in the Caucasus, apn.ru reported on 13 October. "The war continues in the North Caucasus, in Chechnya, Ingushetia, Daghestan, North Ossetia, and Kabardino-Balkaria," he said. He also said that he believes that Chechen attackers were involved in the Nalchik raid and that he does not agree that unemployment and poor living conditions fuel the fires of militancy in the North Caucasus. "In Tver Oblast, there is unemployment and a grave economic situation, but there are no Wahhabis there," he said. Meanwhile, former KGB Colonel Sergei Goncharov, the chairman of a veterans' association for the Alfa antiterrorism force, said the political and economic conditions are ripe for an explosion of violence in the Caucasus, TV-Tsentr reported on 15 October. "Politically, there is no leader in the North Caucasus who controls the situation in his republic. Economically, all republics are living on federal handouts and the ruling clans are competing for the right to steal federal funds," he said.

• DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS RUSSIA, CHINA, INDIA MAY HOLD JOINT MILITARY EXERCISES. Speaking at a testing ground in the northwestern Indian state of Rajasthan on 16 October, Defense Minister Ivanov said he does not exclude the possibility of holding trilateral Russian-Indian-Chinese military exercises, ITAR-TASS reported. Ivanov is in India watching joint Russian-Indian military exercises. "In principle, [trilateral exercises] are possible," Ivanov said. "We've held [bilateral] military exercises [with China and India] and there is nothing unusual in this." However, Ivanov rejected the idea that Russia may form a military bloc with China and India. "In the 21st century, blocs and unions are becoming a thing of the past," Ivanov said. He also added that "Indo-Russian defense cooperation has been steadily growing for almost 50 years now. India's share in Russia's arms exports amounts to a minimum of 40 percent."

Transcaucasia And Central Asia

• RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS U.S. MILITARY PRESENCE IN CENTRAL ASIA IS NOT NEEDED. In a 16 October interview with RTR, Sergei Lavrov said that as international antiterrorism operations in Afghanistan are winding down, there is no need for a U.S. military base in Kyrgyzstan, Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported. Lavrov called for a restoration of the "previous state of affairs" in the region. He said that the Russian military presence in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan is part of the Collective Security Treaty, to which both those Central Asian states are members. Lavrov insisted that Russian military bases in Central Asia help to combat terrorism, drug trafficking, and organized crime. Last week, during her brief visit to Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that America does not plan to have a permanent military presence in Central Asia.

Southeastern Europe

• SERBIAN PRIME MINISTER SAYS KOSOVA CAN HAVE BROAD AUTONOMY. Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica said that Belgrade is prepared to grant Kosova broad autonomy, but warned that outright independence could tip the Balkan region into crisis, AFP reported on 15 October. "We are ready to give Kosova a good deal of autonomy. Any other option would not solve the problem, but rather cause a larger and deeper regional crisis," Kostunica said. Kostunica also said he is confident that the United Nations Security Council will not allow any country to force a unilateral decision on Serbia that affects its sovereignty and territorial integrity, Serbia's RTS television reported. "The question for Kosovo and Metohija should be solved as in any other democratic country through different forms of autonomy," Kostunica said. U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns has said that independence and autonomy are the only two likely options for Kosova and that Washington does not favor any particular option.

Southwestern Asia And The Middle East

• TWO U.K. JETS HIT IN ROCKET ATTACK IN SOUTHERN AFGHANISTAN. The U.K. Ministry of Defense said in a 14 October statement that a rocket struck Kandahar airfield the same day. No one was injured in the attack but one Royal Air Force Harrier fighter jet was destroyed and another was damaged, Britain's "The Sunday Telegraph" reported on 16 October. The RAF has six Harrier jets in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, a spokeswoman for the U.S.-led coalition forces in Afghanistan, Sergeant Marina Elvan, said on 16 October that a second rocket struck Kandahar airfield on 14 October, injuring a U.S. serviceman, Pajhwak News Agency reported. While no one has claimed responsibility for the attacks, the neo-Taliban has been targeting coalition bases in Kandahar and its surrounding provinces for the past three years. Damage to coalition personnel or equipment resulting from such attacks has been very rare.

• EXPLOSIONS IN SOUTHWEST IRAN CAUSE MASS CASUALTIES. Two explosions in the Khuzestan Province city of Ahvaz on 15 October killed at least five people and wounded some 90 others, Radio Farda and Iranian state television reported. A "Mr. Shariati," identified as the deputy governor-general of Khuzestan for political-security affairs, said shortly after the bombings that they took place on two streets around 5:15 p.m. local time. Shariati said the bombs were placed in trash bins and were not very powerful, but there were many casualties because they went off in a crowded area. Iranian officials and state media have attributed the bombings to the United Kingdom. Bombings in Khuzestan Province during the summer were blamed on the U.K., although evidence of this has not been provided.