Al-Zarqawi: Looking Toward Saudi Arabia?

(Stratfor)

Al-Zarqawi: Looking Toward Saudi Arabia?
September 06, 2005 22 07 GMT

Summary

Al Qaeda's chief in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, released an Internet audio recording Sept. 6 in which he reviled the Saudi monarchy for combating Islamist militants in the Saudi kingdom. With al Qaeda assets in Saudi Arabia severely weakened, al-Zarqawi is eyeing this battleground from Iraq as an opportunity to expand the jihadist campaign to the Saudi kingdom under his own leadership.

Analysis

In a new audio recording posted on the Internet on Sept. 6, al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, condemned the Saudi government in a lengthy diatribe that accuses the regime of treachery to the Muslim nation and to Islam for its fight against jihadists in the region. Al-Zarqawi accuses the "Saudi tyrants" of ruling without legitimacy and allowing the West to gain a foothold in the Arabian Peninsula by looting its oil wealth. Al-Zarqawi also cites the death of Saleh al-Oufi, the head of al Qaeda's military operations in the kingdom.

This newest tape marks a significant shift in al-Zarqawi's communiqués, which have focused primarily on the insurgency he leads in Iraq with the sanction of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Looking to the east from his base in Iraq, al-Zarqawi sees a prime opportunity to stake a claim in the jihadist insurgency in the Saudi kingdom. The Saudi insurgency has been in a state of continuing decline since June 2004, as Saudi security forces have made significant progress in rooting out militant strongholds. The most recent blow to the Saudi militants came on Aug. 18 when al-Oufi was killed in a raid conducted by Saudi special forces in the western city of Medina -- marking the almost complete annihilation of the al Qaeda leadership in the kingdom. Furthermore, Saudi security forces have been engaged in battles with militants for three days straight and confirmed late Sept. 5 that Zaid Saad Zaid al-Samari, No. 3 on the list of most-wanted militants in the kingdom, had been killed in a raid in the eastern city of Dammam.

As the political process picks up in Iraq and Sunni strongholds in the country increasingly withdraw support for the jihadist insurgency, al-Zarqawi is on the lookout for a new arena to stage operations in the name of al Qaeda. Saudi Arabia, the protector of Islam's most holy sites, is undoubtedly an attractive option for the Jordanian jihadist leader -- though he will likely continue to base attacks from outside the kingdom (if not from Iraq itself) in order to avoid capture. However, al-Zarqawi will have to prove his worth as a leader to bin Laden through action, not words. It is quite possible that al-Zarqawi could stage and claim a medium-scale attack in the Saudi kingdom in the near future. Although the Saudi jihadist movement could be revived with many battle-hardened and experienced fighters coming from Iraq, al-Zarqawi's ability to efficiently carry out significant attacks in Saudi Arabia from off-site remains highly questionable.

[Team Sergeant]

zarqawi has a snowballs chance in hell to stir things up in Saudi Arabia.

Unlike western civilians, arab nations-dictatorships have no qualms in destroying an entire city block to irradiate a handful of sissy boys such as zarqawi and his islamic idiots. Also unlike western civilizations the Saudi dictatorship can and will be as ruthless as they like without fear of international retaliation.

Unlike our western society the arab dictators do not take kindly to bi-peds such as zarqawi operating in their sphere of absolute authority and will take every measure to capture/kill everyone opposed to the "King".

TS

[hemi5p]

yeah thats true, they could do whatever they wanted to the terrorists, nobody would care... it would just make our job easier

also, if Zarqawi attacked Saudi-Arabia, us and the Saudi's might have a bit of a uniting cause, a middle-east ally outside of Israel would sure make 1 less home for terrorists and more forces (ideally)

you just put me at ease a bit Team Sergeant

im also starting to wonder how many more enemies these doomed terrorists are going to make before they finally get eradicated? im thinking that countries like Jordan and Iran won't want al-Qaeda there because it'll draw us in to fight them, I don't know, I'm pretty uneducated on the subject, i was born only 2 years before the Gulf War

honestly? because of what Team Sergeant just said, (which seems correct), I hope Zarqawi's cronies launch an all out attack on Saudi Arabia, get pulvarized, then maybe we could get some Saudi help in dealing with al-Qaeda? (if we dont already have it, I need to enlighten myself more on the middle east conflicts)

I guess all I'm trying to say is if these terrorists, Zarqawi's group, Al-Qaeda, etc.. keep knocking down peoples doors, soon enough the whole town will be against them, so to speak

dunno, just loose uneducated guesses, trying to make some connections

I do think that most countries in the middle-east are starting to resent al-Qaeda and the Jihadists, I think they're bringing too much pressure on the region

I definately think we're going to gain more allies in the middle east as we "stay the course," we'll have to see, from what I've been reading you SF guys have been making friends with saddam's former enemy the Kurds up north? Probly old news, I'm in the dark, I have lots of reading to do

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by ghuinness

(Stratfor)

Al-Zarqawi: Looking Toward Saudi Arabia?
September 06, 2005 22 07 GMT

Summary

Al Qaeda's chief in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, released an Internet audio recording....

Wonder why the Al Qaeda chief in Saudi Arabia didn't issue the recording?

TR

[jatx]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Wonder why the Al Qaeda chief in Saudi Arabia didn't issue the recording?

TR

TR, Saleh al-Aoofi has laid down for a dirt nap and asked not to be disturbed.

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Wonder why the Al Qaeda chief in Saudi Arabia didn't issue the recording?

TR

When I read this I wondered if the real reason for the tape content wasn't *marketing*; Al-Zarqawi is having recruiting problems and this was an attempt to attract dis-enchanted Saudi's.

I have a few questions about this, I'm sure someone will correct my logic.

Does anyone else on this board think the insurgents in Tal Afar have anything to do with Zarqawi? I know some reports say the insurgents *might* be affiliated with him. I'm skeptical.

I thought Zarqawi was losing influence; insurgents aren't diminshing, but they seem more disorganised. Maybe that is my misconception.

Something else I noticed today. There was an attack in Basra and Zarqawi quickly claimed responsibility. If he had anything to do with Tal Afar, wouldn't he be all over the media like has been on other stuff?

I agree with what TS said about Zarkawi having a snowball's chance taking on Saudi Arabia. I had the same thoughts, which made me wonder why he made the hour long tape. Who is the intended audience? Obviously not the Saudi Regime.

With the instability in Somalia and the possible attack by the external goverment, could Zarkawi be looking there? If I understand it, President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed has strong ties with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has offered to help him with destroying the militia run groups in Mogadishu......Somalia is a a growing cell for Al Qaeda.

There have been reports over the last few days about the UN bailing out of Somalia and Ahmed's Ethiopian backed army at the border. Then there is all the piracy around that area. Just wondering about the timing of the tape, the incidents in Somalia and if they could be related.