German elections

[Airbornelawyer]

Yesterday, the ruling coalition in Germany received a spanking.

Elections were held in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia), a heavily industrialized and urbanized northern German state (Cologne and the Ruhr industrial region are there). Going in, everyone expected the ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens to do poorly. The SPD had run the state, either alone or in a coalition, since 1966, but support had been declining for years, mainly going to third parties. But the SPD/Green coalition did even worse than expected, while the Christian Democrats (CDU) did much better.

As of this morning, preliminary election results show the SPD falling from 42.8% to 37.1%, while its Green coalition partners lost just under a percent, going from 7.1% to 6.2%. The CDU jumped from 37% to 44.8%. The Free Democrats, the CDU's sometime coalition partner, lost ground, going from 9.8% to 6.2%, but together the CDU and FDP will have enough seats to take control of the state legislature (Landtag)

As a result, Germany's Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, has decided to call early elections for this September (technically, he is calling for a vote of no-confidence in his government, which will result in new elections). Given the recent trend in German politics, he has a good chance of losing, but he cannot be counted out. His last election campaign was characterized by a lot of demagoguery, especially regarding the United States. He basically won reelection on anti-Americanism.

I imagine domestic issues will dominate, especially Germany's economic woes, but these have an international component as well. Many otherwise reasonable economic reforms are dead on arrival because of European Union rules and politics.

Foreign policy, especially on international security issues, may be an issue, but probably only as a diversion. Neither CDU nor SPD seem likely to change the "we'll help the anti-terror coalition, but not too much" policy which puts German troops in Afghanistan, but only for ISAF peacekeeping, and has Germans training Iraqi soldiers and police, but only outside Iraq. Neither party seems likely to make a big issue of international security and German-US relations, as the fringe elements each is competing for – German nationalists on the right and leftists on the… well, left – are both fairly anti-American and anti-foreign "adventurism."

Still, it would bring a smile to my face to see Schröder and his cronies, especially former terrorist sympathizer and Green leader Joschka Fischer, out of a job. And even if not a major improvement, a CDU-led government would be an improvement over the SPD and Greens.

[Airbornelawyer]

Besides North Rhine-Westphalia, other recent elections have also been unkind to the SPD. Since the September 22, 2002 federal elections (featuring Schröder's anti-Americanism, and including North Rhine-Westphalia, eleven of Germany's 16 states (Länder) have held elections. In every one of them, the SPD lost votes (although not always in favor of the opposition Christian Democrats but in many cases to third parties):

- Schleswig-Holstein, in north Germany bordering Denmark, most recently held elections, on February 20, 2005. The SPD lost 4.4% and the CDU gained 5%, but neither had enough seats with their traditional coalition partners (the Greens for the SPD and the FDP for the CDU) to form a coalition. They have each been unsuccessfully trying to form a coalition with a party representing the Danish and Frisian minorities.

- Elections were held on September 19, 2004 in two German states which were part of the former East Germany - Brandenburg and Saxony.

In Brandenburg, the SPD vote went down 7.4%, while the CDU lost 7.1%. The big winners were the former East German ruling party (the Party of Democratic Socialism, or PDS, +4.7%) and various fringe parties. The extreme right-wing parties campaigned together, allowing the Deutsche Volksunion (DVU) to cross the 5% threshold to enter the Landtag. The governing coalition is left-right, made up of the CDU and SPD.

In Sachsen (Saxony), the major parties also were the big losers. The SPD hasn't been a force in Saxony since the 1920s, and fell from 10.6% in 1999's elections to 9.8%. The PDS is the real left-wing force in Saxony, but even it got only 23.6% (up slightly from 22.2%). The CDU lost its absolute majority, going from 56.9% to 41.1%, and formed a coalition with the SPD. Three parties crossed the 5% threshold - the FDP, the Greens and the far-right National Democratic Party (NPD). The NPD went from 1.4% to 9.2%, the extreme right's best showing in Saxon state elections since the Nazi Party's 14.4% in 1930.

- Saarland, a small state on the French border, held elections on September 5, 2004. The SPD's 30.8% of the vote was a drop of 13.6% from 1999. The CDU and smaller parties gained slightly, and the CDU runs the state.

- Thüringen (Thuringia), another former East German state, held its last elections on June 13, 2004. The SPD fell by 4% to 14.5% and the CDU fell 8% to 43%, while the PDS gained 4.7% to 26.1%. No smaller party crossed the 5% threshold, so the CDU had a majority of seats and continues in power.

- The free city of Hamburg held its last elections on Sadie Hawkins Day, February 29, 2004. The CDU had a huge gain, 21%, and rules without a coalition partner. The SPD lost 6%.

- Bayern (Bavaria), a bastion of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's partner, had its last elections on September 21, 2003. The CSU won 60.7% (+7.8%). The SPD won 19.6% (-9.1%).

- Bremen, another free city, voted on May 25, 2003. The SPD and CDU both lost votes, and because the Bürgerschaft (Bremen's legislature) itself shrank, together they lost 20 seats. Minor parties gained votes, and the DVU managed to win a seat outright from Bremerhaven.

- Hessen (Hesse), in the heart of Germany, voted on February 2, 2003. The SPD fell by 10.3%. The CDU increased its vote by 5.4%, falling just short of a majority of votes but getting a majority of seats. The rest of the gains went to the FDP and Greens (each gaining about 3%).

- Niedersachsen (Lower Saxony) also voted on February 2, 2003. The SPD lost 14.5% of the vote and its majority of seats. The CDU gained 12.4% and formed a coalition with the FDP.

[Firebeef]

Es freut mich sehr zu sehen das ...wenigstens manche Deutscher sehen was fuer Wurst ihrer Politiker aus Aussen/Internationaler handeln gemacht haben.

I'll bet anyone on here...100 push-ups, non stop....the EU as it exists today, in 10 years time will be half of its present day membership....if it even still exists. Any takers??

[Goggles Pizano]

I won't take that bet FB because I agree with you-it won't exist. It appears the German populace has begun to shed the "nazi guilt" that put the socialists into power years ago and are now revisiting rational economic thought. Good for Deutschland and better for the continent. I hope they turn things around.