01-10-2016, 10:07
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#1
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Area Commander
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: The Black Hills of SD
Posts: 5,944
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Powerball
... is now over,
ONE BILLION DOLLARS.
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Non Sibi Sed Suis
_____________________________________________
It's Good To Be Da King !!!! Just ask NDD !!!! 
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Sdiver is offline
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01-10-2016, 10:27
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#2
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Washington
Posts: 2,064
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Glad I could help push it over the top. 
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Grando autem duodecimo hominis
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Divemaster is offline
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01-10-2016, 12:47
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#3
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Area Commander
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: The Black Hills of SD
Posts: 5,944
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Ah, so this is what those numbers REALLY mean ....
__________________
Non Sibi Sed Suis
_____________________________________________
It's Good To Be Da King !!!! Just ask NDD !!!!
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Sdiver is offline
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01-10-2016, 15:09
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#4
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sdiver
... is now over,
ONE BILLION DOLLARS.
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Heh, I bet $20 on it and won $96 so I now have $60 worth of tickets for Wednesday, my original $20 and $16 in profit... I can live with that 
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(1VB)compforce is offline
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01-10-2016, 15:49
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#5
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Guerrilla
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: Orange County, CA.
Posts: 222
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Numbers running by the state.
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CAARNG 68W is offline
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01-10-2016, 18:35
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#6
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Alaska
Posts: 777
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At this point, you could purchase tickets with each of the 292.2 million possible combinations and still come out ahead.
S.
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Heroes are often the most ordinary of men. - Henry David Thoreau.
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Requiem is offline
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01-10-2016, 20:20
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#7
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Requiem
At this point, you could purchase tickets with each of the 292.2 million possible combinations and still come out ahead.
S. |
Unless you end up splitting, in which case you are out a whole lot of cash...
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(1VB)compforce is offline
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01-10-2016, 20:25
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#8
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Alaska
Posts: 777
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (1VB)compforce
Unless you end up splitting, in which case you are out a whole lot of cash...
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True...
And if I had $292.2 million I wouldn't need to play the lottery. 
__________________
Heroes are often the most ordinary of men. - Henry David Thoreau.
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Requiem is offline
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01-11-2016, 12:40
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#9
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 1,585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Requiem
At this point, you could purchase tickets with each of the 292.2 million possible combinations and still come out ahead.
S. |
The first five numbers are chosen from 69 balls, numbered 1-69. The sixth number, or Powerball number is chosen from 26 balls numbered 1-26. The number of potential combinations to win the total prize is:
69*68*67*66*65*26 = 35,064,160,560
Tickets cost $2.00. In order to purchase tickets with every combination of possible outcomes, it would cost $70,128,321,120.
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Ubi libertas habitat ibi nostra patria est
I hold it as a principle that the duration of peace is in direct proportion to the slaughter you inflict on the enemy. –Gen. Mikhail Skobelev
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SF-TX is offline
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01-11-2016, 14:42
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#10
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SF-TX
The first five numbers are chosen from 69 balls, numbered 1-69. The sixth number, or Powerball number is chosen from 26 balls numbered 1-26. The number of potential combinations to win the total prize is:
69*68*67*66*65*26 = 35,064,160,560
Tickets cost $2.00. In order to purchase tickets with every combination of possible outcomes, it would cost $70,128,321,120.
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Quote:
...
Some persons who enjoy statistics (they do really exist) will come up with odds of 1 in 17 billion for the jackpot prize. Remember that you don't need to match the numbers in exact order - we use combinations to determine the probabilities for the first five white balls and not permutations.
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http://www.powerball.com/pb_contact.asp
Unfortunately I am one of those people who enjoy statistics ( a sadist) and likes to figure out just how low my odds of winning actually are (doubly sadistic)
the formula for the first five would be
n!/r!(n-r)! where n is the number of balls (69) and r is the number of draws (5)
or
69!/5!(69-5)!
which is
~1.711e^98/120(~1.2688e^89) = 11,238,513
that e^98 is meant to mean "times ten to the 98th power" but adding exponents to the text didn't work so I used the shorthand. It does not mean e where e=~2.7
Then you have those odds times the number of power balls (26)
11238513 * 26 = 292,201,338
at $2/ticket it would cost $584,402,676
A more important statistic is EV (Expected Value) which tells us what the value of a ticket really is. In the real, non-lottery, world you use this to figure out what the right price for a gamble is (or how many Powerball tickets to buy to maximize your return). Poker players use it to figure out how much to bet on a given hand.
Here's a pretty good explanation of EV as it relates to Powerball:
http://www.slate.com/articles/life/d...mugs_game.html
Last edited by (1VB)compforce; 01-11-2016 at 15:05.
Reason: added clarification on the formula
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(1VB)compforce is offline
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01-11-2016, 15:12
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#11
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Area Commander
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: The Black Hills of SD
Posts: 5,944
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (1VB)compforce
http://www.powerball.com/pb_contact.asp
Unfortunately I am one of those people who enjoy statistics ( a sadist) and likes to figure out just how low my odds of winning actually are (doubly sadistic)
the formula for the first five would be
n!/r!(n-r)! where n is the number of balls (69) and r is the number of draws (5)
or
69!/5!(69-5)!
which is
~1.711e^98/120(~1.2688e^89) = 11,238,513
that e^98 is meant to mean "times ten to the 98th power" but adding exponents to the text didn't work so I used the shorthand. It does not mean e where e=~2.7
Then you have those odds times the number of power balls (26)
11238513 * 26 = 292,201,338
at $2/ticket it would cost $584,402,676
A more important statistic is EV (Expected Value) which tells us what the value of a ticket really is. In the real, non-lottery, world you use this to figure out what the right price for a gamble is (or how many Powerball tickets to buy to maximize your return). Poker players use it to figure out how much to bet on a given hand.
Here's a pretty good explanation of EV as it relates to Powerball:
http://www.slate.com/articles/life/d...mugs_game.html
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Fuck it ... I'm moving to Kentucky.
__________________
Non Sibi Sed Suis
_____________________________________________
It's Good To Be Da King !!!! Just ask NDD !!!!
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Sdiver is offline
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01-11-2016, 15:16
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#12
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Area Commander
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Cochise Co., AZ
Posts: 6,200
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by (1VB)compforce
Unfortunately I am one of those people who enjoy statistics ( a sadist)...
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Actually, that would make you a masochist. Now, enticing me to read your post, that makes you a sadist.
Pat
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"The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress." -- Frederick Douglass
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PSM is offline
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01-11-2016, 15:17
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#13
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Atlanta
Posts: 504
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSM
Actually, that would make you a masochist. Now, enticing me to read your post, that makes you a sadist.
Pat |
so... it was a freudian slip...
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(1VB)compforce is offline
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01-11-2016, 16:02
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#14
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Tampa
Posts: 2,616
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sdiver
Fuck it ... I'm moving to Kentucky.
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Now that's some funny chit.
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Joker is offline
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01-11-2016, 16:08
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#15
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Texas
Posts: 1,585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by (1VB)compforce
http://www.powerball.com/pb_contact.asp
Unfortunately I am one of those people who enjoy statistics ( a sadist) and likes to figure out just how low my odds of winning actually are (doubly sadistic)
the formula for the first five would be
n!/r!(n-r)! where n is the number of balls (69) and r is the number of draws (5)
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I calculated for a permutation without repetition instead of a combination without repetition, or replacement.
__________________
Ubi libertas habitat ibi nostra patria est
I hold it as a principle that the duration of peace is in direct proportion to the slaughter you inflict on the enemy. –Gen. Mikhail Skobelev
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SF-TX is offline
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