07-17-2014, 09:55
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#1
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: NorCal
Posts: 15,370
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777 Crash In Ukraine
Air Malaysia just had a 777 enroute from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur go down in Ukraine. 
Accident or accidental shoot down?
Richard
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“Sometimes the Bible in the hand of one man is worse than a whisky bottle in the hand of (another)… There are just some kind of men who – who’re so busy worrying about the next world they’ve never learned to live in this one, and you can look down the street and see the results.” - To Kill A Mockingbird (Atticus Finch)
“Almost any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.” - Robert Heinlein
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Richard is offline
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07-17-2014, 10:04
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#2
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Area Commander
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Clay House Stuttgart, Germany
Posts: 2,671
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I'll bet on a missile strike. 
Last edited by mojaveman; 07-17-2014 at 12:09.
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mojaveman is offline
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07-17-2014, 10:31
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#3
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: State of Jefferson
Posts: 560
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brush Okie
Or just a shoot down. Anyone remember flight 007? good pretense for an invasion ie Ukraine is shooting down civilian jet liners and targeting civilians.
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This was my first thought as well. Did Russia do it?
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Lan is offline
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07-17-2014, 10:33
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#4
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Area Commander
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Buckingham, Pa.
Posts: 1,746
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Reports are that it was hit by a BUK surface to air missile fired from inside Russian territory. This is going to get ugly really quickly if true. Prayers out to the deceased.
Last edited by rubberneck; 07-17-2014 at 12:27.
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rubberneck is offline
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07-17-2014, 12:58
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#5
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Quiet Professional
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brush Okie
So my question is why some jack ass CEO made the decision to let civilian airline full of their passengers fly over a combat zone? I realize it would cost more in fuel to route around but anyone that didn't see this coming is an idiot.
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It's the Malaysians.
I don't think any further explanation for the routing is required.
Remember, these are the people who let the rest of the world search for weeks for their lost airplane while they withheld information on its possible location.
As far as the SAM shooting, it was either the Ukranian government, which I would say is very unlikely, the Ukranian separatists, who initially claimed credit for the downing, and now deny it, or most likely, IMHO, the Russians shot it down in support of the "separatists".
A BUK requires armored TELs and radars to employ, it isn't a shoulder fired missile that might be hidden.
TR
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"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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The Reaper is offline
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07-17-2014, 14:09
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#6
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Area Commander
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Cochise Co., AZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brush Okie
So my question is why some jack ass CEO made the decision to let civilian airline full of their passengers fly over a combat zone? I realize it would cost more in fuel to route around but anyone that didn't see this coming is an idiot.
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The airspace was not restricted at the time. The FIR has been closed now, though.
Pat
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PSM is offline
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07-17-2014, 14:40
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#7
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Quiet Professional
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This will certainly take the media's attention away from the IRS scandal......
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ddoering is offline
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07-17-2014, 14:46
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#8
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Area Commander
Join Date: Nov 2005
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brush Okie
Restricted or not enough stuff happening there common sense dictates avoid the area. I would like to go to Kiev and look around due to the history there. If given an all expense paid vacation I would avoid the place at the moment. Just poor SA but like was pointed out it was the Malaysians so enough said about common sense.
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Oh I agree. But remember, those airways are a marketable commodity and the Ukranians have probably been busy promising that the airspace is safe. I doubt the Malaysians were the only airline using those airways.
Pat
__________________
"Hector Lives!"
"The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress." -- Frederick Douglass
"The bigger the government, the smaller the citizen." -- Dennis Prager
"The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false-face for the urge to rule it." --H.L. Mencken
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PSM is offline
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07-17-2014, 15:15
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#9
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Quiet Professional
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This may be a negotiated rerouting of the air corridor over the Crimea which was closed in April and over the Middle East due to the on-going situation there.
http://www.airlineroutemaps.com/maps/Malaysia_Airlines
Only so much airspace out there and lots of potential hazards to navigate.
Richard
__________________
“Sometimes the Bible in the hand of one man is worse than a whisky bottle in the hand of (another)… There are just some kind of men who – who’re so busy worrying about the next world they’ve never learned to live in this one, and you can look down the street and see the results.” - To Kill A Mockingbird (Atticus Finch)
“Almost any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.” - Robert Heinlein
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Richard is offline
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07-17-2014, 15:40
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#10
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Consigliere
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Roguish Lawyer is offline
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07-17-2014, 16:08
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#11
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Quiet Professional
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Only one question needs to be asked and answered.
Q. Who gains from this?
Certainly not the Pro-Russian rebels in Eastern Ukraine. Even if they recovered an SA-11 BUK from the Ukrainian Army why shoot down an unidentified high altitude aircraft? An "accident" like this kills any hope of success.
Ukraine - possible, it brings in NATO/EU/US support to win the conflict and secure the airspace to pound the crap out of the rebel forces without the continued Russian Air Force support. Anything more is an escalation of East/West involvement.
Russia - possible, it forces the airspace to move north and south back over Russian controlled airspace. Clearly a win-win for Russia. Otherwise it's a dumbass move to continue support for Eastern Ukraine - unlikely!
The party that benefits the most "if intentional" is Ukraine. They have the capability and the weapon system used. (They were also first to cast a stone and supposedly provide "proof" of pro-Russian separatist envolvment.)
My bet is on Ukraine to purposely shoot down this particular airline. Don't have look further than the passenger manifest and the owner of the plane.
JMO
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Old Dog New Trick is offline
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07-17-2014, 16:18
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#12
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Quiet Professional
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Point of origin for the shot is deep in separatist controlled territory. Hard for the Ukraine military to move a convoy of armored launchers in there undetected. Especially when the separatists already shot down another aircraft at high altitude three days ago with the same missile system, and the media observed one being operated by separatists in the area of the shootdown earlier today.
I think the separatists got out of control, or the Russians supporting them did.
Or the POTUS needed a diversion from the illegal immigrants.
TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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The Reaper is offline
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07-17-2014, 16:26
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#13
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Consigliere
Join Date: Jan 2004
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Isn't it "separatists"? 
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Roguish Lawyer is offline
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07-17-2014, 16:52
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#14
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Quiet Professional
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TR - I hear you, but we are clearly only being fed what some people want to feed us. I'm really suspect of the Crysler building on the Potomic having launch coordinates within hours but then backtracking shortly after saying they are now not sure the missile came from Russian territory.
I would suspect that an SA-11/17 with a vertical 70k' ceiling (nearly twice what was needed) and radar controlled could go horizontal nearly 24-natical miles makes a big circle.
Again MOO but who gains and who loses?
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You only live once; live well. Have no regrets when the end happens!
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” (Sir Edmund Burke)
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Old Dog New Trick is offline
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07-17-2014, 17:00
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#15
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Quiet Professional
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Location: Just above the flood plain in Southern Texas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brush Okie
Or the Russians blame Ukrainians and use it as a pretense for invasion
Or Russians use it as an excuse to show things are getting out of control and roll in to "keep the peace" like Christmas day 1979.
The problem being with today's technology not as easy to get away with that little trick and it did not go as planned.
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All possible. But why cast doubt?
Why not shoot down an Aeroflot commercial plane? (Control all the variables!)
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You only live once; live well. Have no regrets when the end happens!
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.” (Sir Edmund Burke)
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Old Dog New Trick is offline
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