Ebola: "Out of Control in West Africa"

[LarryW]

The tragedy which is Iraq and the threat that is ISIS may soon bow to a much bigger elephant in the room. This may be a greater threat.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...reak/11110943/

Ebola called 'out of control' in West Africa
By Michael Winter, USA TODAY

" The deadliest-ever outbreak of the Ebola virus has surged in West Africa after slowing briefly, and the pandemic is now "out of control," according to Doctors Without Borders.

Nearly 600 infections and 340 Ebola-related deaths have been recorded in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the most since the virus was discovered in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan almost 40 years ago, the World Health Organization said this week. There's no cure or vaccine for the highly contagious disease, which has mortality rate of up to 90%.

"The reality is clear that the epidemic is now in a second wave," Bart Janssens, the medical charity's operations director, told the Associated Press on Friday. "And, for me, it is totally out of control."

He criticized the WHO and African governments for not doing more to contain the outbreak and to thoroughly trace everyone who has had contact with the sick or the dead.

"There needs to be a real political commitment that this is a very big emergency," he said. "Otherwise, it will continue to spread, and for sure it will spread to more countries."

As of Friday, the WHO was not recommending any travel or trade restrictions to the three countries.

"We think that the situation can be controlled with the measures that are being vigorously implemented," Francis Kasolo, the director for disease prevention and control at the WHO's regional office in Republic of Congo, told the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

The virus, one of the world's most virulent, is transmitted by contact with the blood, fluids or tissues of infected animals or people. It causes high fever, vomiting, muscle pain and diarrhea, and can result in unstoppable internal bleeding and organ failure.

Transmission risk is especially high among doctors, nurses and other health care workers.

The latest outbreak began in January or December in the forests of southeastern Guinea and spread to urban areas. Guinea has been the hardest hit, with 264 deaths recorded by Wednesday. Sierra Leone has reported 49 deaths and Liberia 24.

"This is the highest outbreak on record and has the highest number of deaths, so this is unprecedented so far," Armand Sprecher, a public health specialist with Doctors Without Borders, told the AP.

Sierra Leone has stepped up measures to prevent and contain the disease, the country's health minister said Thursday.

In Liberia, nurses fearful over the Ebola death of a colleague abandoned a hospital in New Kru Town, forcing it to close. During a solidarity visit to the hospital Tuesday, President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf declared the outbreak a national emergency. "

[Flagg]

I''m no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing Ebola simply burns far too quickly and doesn't transmit well enough to be a global or even major regional threat.

But it's certainly yet another warning indicator of the very real risk and near inevitability of a truly global viral fire that could burn a significant percentage of monkeys off this rock via 1st and 2nd order effects.

It makes me hope that the likes of DARPA, CDC, and DHS are coordinating and investing in rapid/real-time mass testing for air travel.

Instead of looking at my junk on a scanner maybe they should be checking if Passengers are ticking viral bombs.

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Flagg

I''m no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing Ebola simply burns far too quickly and doesn't transmit well enough to be a global or even major regional threat.

But it's certainly yet another warning indicator of the very real risk and near inevitability of a truly global viral fire that could burn a significant percentage of monkeys off this rock via 1st and 2nd order effects.

It makes me hope that the likes of DARPA, CDC, and DHS are coordinating and investing in rapid/real-time mass testing for air travel.

Instead of looking at my junk on a scanner maybe they should be checking if Passengers are ticking viral bombs.

Ebola, although highly virulent, contagious, and lethal it is not transmissible like influenza (low infectivity rate). Ebola requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids, like HIV. Containment measures will prevent widespread spread of this disease. At highest risk are the health-care workers.

[LarryW]

If any travel is necessary into the West Africa areas please take precautions.

Greatest respects for the comments below, but still ...

Originally Posted by Flagg View Post
I''m no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing Ebola simply burns far too quickly and doesn't transmit well enough to be a global or even major regional threat.

But it's certainly yet another warning indicator of the very real risk and near inevitability of a truly global viral fire that could burn a significant percentage of monkeys off this rock via 1st and 2nd order effects.

It makes me hope that the likes of DARPA, CDC, and DHS are coordinating and investing in rapid/real-time mass testing for air travel.

Instead of looking at my junk on a scanner maybe they should be checking if Passengers are ticking viral bombs.

(Posted by Trapper John) Ebola, although highly virulent, contagious, and lethal it is not transmissible like influenza (low infectivity rate). Ebola requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids, like HIV. Containment measures will prevent widespread spread of this disease. At highest risk are the health-care workers.

Just be damned careful, y'all.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/23/health...html?hpt=hp_t1

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Brush Okie

What are the chances of something like this morphing into something that has a higher infectivity rate? I understand viruses tend to adapt over time sometimes quickly. Is it holiweird fantasy to think this may turn to something that is worse?

I'm not a virologist nor a gene jockey, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. So my short answer is - "I don't have a f'n clue"

My guess is though, it's going to be a rare event and hard for this virus to naturally mutate. I say that because their is no driving force to do so and there are fewer opportunities. We are talking about a zoonotic disease that is quite well adapted to its primary host. A deliberate contact (monkeys as a food source) with a closely related species was the only reason Ebola emerged in humans. This is not at all like a swine or avian virus adapting to an unrelated species to find a new host.

Of greater concern to me is the intentional mutation to make Ebola transmissible via the airborne route, to survive outside a host for longer periods of time, increase the prodromal period (lag time between infection and outbreak of symptoms), etc.

There are folks operating in this AO that would have such intentions and could acquire the capability. That's the greater threat IMO.

[BrokenSwitch]

Someone's been reading too much Tom Clancy (Executive Orders and Rainbow Six).

With that said... I suppose some of his ideas were prescient.

[DJ Urbanovsky]

The White House says it's not a threat, and will be continuing plans to host a three day summit of African leaders. Meanwhile, the CDC has this to say about the Ebola:

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/...g/ebola-guinea

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/.../ebola-liberia

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/...a-sierra-leone

And then they published this:

http://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/air/ma...-airlines.html

But it's not a threat, right?

I'm no medic, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I do know that Ebola is incredibly virulent, and is present in all of the host's bodily fluids and excretions. Including sweat. Sweat!

I'm not trying to be alarmist here, but this is kind of a big deal. UK and US residents (aid workers) have already been infected and are dead.

Usually an outbreak starts in the hinterlands, and burns itself out quickly. This time, it started in major population centers, and hosts have boarded aircraft and traveled...

Do a Google search and start reading.

Just sayin'...

[Paslode]

Emory University Hospital is expected to receive a patient infected with the deadly Ebola virus within the next several days, the university announced Thursday.

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/breakin...patient/ngrtm/

Why bring it home?

[DJ Urbanovsky]

Seems, I don't know... Insane. Right?

I might be wrong about this, but I don't ever recall a case of it being knowingly allowed on aircraft, let alone one destined for the United States.

Originally Posted by Paslode

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/breakin...patient/ngrtm/

Why bring it home?

[Paslode]

I am sure the US has much better medical and CDC facilities than else where in the world and this person or persons will get the best care possible....

But Ebola is nasty and there is no cure. I do not believe we have ever had a case in the US so why even risk it. All it would take is one individual to become infected then running around a city like NYC and we would have a f-ing mess that spreads to 50 states overnight.

[tonyz]

Originally Posted by Paslode

But Ebola is nasty and there is no cure. I do not believe we have ever had a case in the US so why even risk it. All it would take is one individual to become infected then running around a city like NYC and we would have a f-ing mess that spreads to 50 states overnight.

Sort of describes that gem Ebola Pelosi.

[Old Dog New Trick]

Back in the 90s when I was an 18D, I read "The Hot Zone" (Richard Preston) about Ebola and thought right there and then to not just walk away from medicine, but run!

The fact that this disease is going wild now is or should be seen as a testament that organizations like the CDC, WHO, and anyone else involved don't have a clue as to how to isolate it and prevent its worldwide infection in a global environment.

Recent revelations that the CDC lost control of live viruses and stored others in a non-secure research facility should tell you they may have the best of intentions but lack the fortitude to live up to their charter of protecting the public.

Whatever protocols are in place in Georgia and the route there from Africa, I hope that nothing goes wrong. I hope that they find a cure without infecting others and that they have the best controls to protect anyone and everyone that comes into contact with this person and those in the host county.

Ebola as a bioterrorism weapon is on the horizon so for their part a cure and vaccine is needed...Godspeed.

[LarryW]

The World Health Organization chipping in resources to fight it is good, but containment seems like the only successful approach.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-28593987

The head of the World Health Organization and leaders of West African nations affected by the Ebola outbreak are to announce a joint $100m (£59m; 75m euro) response plan.

They will meet in Guinea on Friday to launch the initiative aimed at tackling a virus which has claimed 729 lives.

Sierra Leone's president has declared a public health emergency over the outbreak after 233 people died there.

Ebola spreads through human contact with a sufferer's bodily fluids.

Initial flu-like symptoms can lead to external hemorrhaging from areas like eyes and gums, and internal bleeding which can lead to organ failure.

Ebola kills up to 90% of those infected, with patients having a better chance of survival if they receive early treatment.
'A new level'

"The scale of the Ebola outbreak, and the persistent threat it poses, requires WHO and Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to take the response to a new level, and this will require increased resources, in-country medical expertise, regional preparedness and coordination," she said in a statement released on the WHO website on Thursday.

"The countries have identified what they need, and WHO is reaching out to the international community to drive the response plan forward."

Key elements of the WHO's new plan are:

Stopping transmission in the affected countries through "scaling up effective, evidence-based outbreak control measures"

Preventing the spread of Ebola to "the neighboring at-risk countries through strengthening epidemic preparedness and response measures"

The WHO says that the scale of the ongoing outbreak is "unprecedented", with about 1,323 confirmed and suspected cases reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone since March 2014.

It says that improving prevention, detecting and reporting suspected cases, referring people infected with the disease for medical care, as well as psychosocial support, are of paramount importance in battling the illness.

The WHO is also deploying two survivors of the outbreak in Guinea as informal Ebola ambassadors, working with community groups to show that the disease can be prevented if people take recommended precautions.

The US health authorities have warned against traveling to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone as they strive to tackle the Ebola outbreak.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention "recommends against non-essential travel [to these countries]," director Tom Frieden said.
Liberian people read an information sign about Ebola set on a wall of a public health centre in Monrovia (31 July 2014) The WHO says that more emphasis need to be put on strengthening epidemic preparedness and response measures.

The US sending is sending 50 extra specialists to affected areas.

An American doctor with Ebola in Liberia has taken a "slight turn for the worse", the Samaritan's Purse aid agency said on Thursday.

Kent Brantly and another American worker, Nancy Writebol, "are in stable but grave condition", the agency said in a statement.

The statement said that Dr Brantly had been offered experimental serum - using blood form a child whose life he saved - but he had insisted that Ms Writebol should receive it instead.

In other developments:

• President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of Liberia - one of the worst hit countries - told the BBC the Ebola outbreak was catastrophic, and more help was needed to contain its spread
• Seychelles have cancelled Saturday's 2015 Africa Cup of Nations qualifier against Sierra Leone because of fears over the Ebola virus
• Nigeria has ordered the temperature screening of passengers arriving from places at risk from Ebola while simultaneously suspending pan-African airline Asky for bringing the first Ebola case to Lagos

In London, the ActionAid charity said that the battle against Ebola was being hampered because of the spiralling price of hand sanitisers.

A spokesman said that the cost of some hygiene products had gone up sevenfold, making them too expensive for many people in the region.

Sierra Leone's President Ernest Bai Koroma announced earlier that the epicentres of the outbreak in the east would be quarantined and he asked the security forces to enforce the measures.

• Symptoms include high fever, bleeding and central nervous system damage
• Fatality rate can reach 90%
• Incubation period is two to 21 days
• There is no vaccine or cure
• Supportive care such as rehydrating patients who have diarrhoea and vomiting can help recovery
• Fruit bats are considered to be virus' natural host

[Flagg]

I could imagine this being a rather sticky situation to manage, even though Ebola can only be transmitted by the exchange of bodily fluids.

Corrupt host nation partners

Local fear/hostility stemming from ignorance

Poor governance/security/health/utility/transportation infrastructure

I'm guessing we don't see an apocalyptic spread to the 1st world(decisive intervention if reached), but if Ebola established in a Lagos megaslum, that's the stuff of nightmares.

Also, the concurrent risk and distraction from questionable Islamic charities coming to "help", or even just one competent and malignant lab technician isolating and reproducing it.

Hopefully everyone trying to scrape up some of mother nature's biological weapon is destroyed along with the virus.

[The Reaper]

If bodily fluids transmit it, why can mosquitos not be a vector?

TR