Go Back   Professional Soldiers ® > At Ease > The Soapbox

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 11-03-2004, 20:38   #1
Airbornelawyer
Moderator
 
Airbornelawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,947
Scorecard 2004 vs 2000

Final tallies might change, but here's an observation:

In every state except one, Bush received a higher percentage of the vote than he did in 2000. That is 50 out of 51 states plus DC (in DC he went from 8.95% to 9.25%). Only Vermont went the other way, from 40.7% in 2000 to 38.9% in 2004. Among Bush's strongest improvements were 4 "9-11 voter" states: New York (+5), New Jersey (+6), Connecticut (+6) and Hawaii (+8).

Kerry improved on Gore's totals in 23 states and DC. Only in Vermont was this at Bush's expense. In the other states it was basically from Nader voters.

In Pennsylvania in 2000, Gore and Nader together took 52.7% of the vote, with Gore getting 50.6%. They kept Nader off the ballot this time, and Kerry got ... 50.8%.

In North Carolina, Gore got 43.2% of the 2000 vote. In 2004, with a North Carolina senator as running mate, Kerry got ... 43.5% of the vote.

Of course, let's not pick on Edwards. In 2000 in Massachusetts, Bush received 32.5% of the vote to Gore's 59.8%. The party nominated a Massachusetts senator for President, and that favorite son added 2.3%, to 62.1%. Bush added 4.5%, to 37%. But it's even worse in the Bay State: Gore and Nader together took 66.2%. They kept Nader off, and Kerry lost 4%.

So if anyone tells you the conventional wisdom is that the country remains divided 50/50, and the result is the red states got redder and the blue states bluer, they are wrong. Except for Vermont, every state got redder.

Last edited by Airbornelawyer; 11-03-2004 at 21:03.
Airbornelawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-03-2004, 20:38   #2
Airbornelawyer
Moderator
 
Airbornelawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,947
The first 25 states (I'm too tired to finish all):
  • AL - Bush 63% Kerry 37% -- Bush 57% Gore 42%
  • AK - Bush 62% Kerry 35% -- Bush 59% Gore 28% Nader 10%
  • AZ - Bush 55% Kerry 44% -- Bush 51% Gore 45% Nader 3%
  • AR - Bush 54% Kerry 45% -- Bush 51% Gore 46%
  • CA - Bush 44% Kerry 55% -- Bush 42% Gore 53% Nader 4%
  • CO - Bush 53% Kerry 46% -- Bush 51% Gore 42% Nader 5%
  • CT - Bush 44% Kerry 54% -- Bush 38% Gore 56% Nader 4%
  • DE - Bush 46% Kerry 53% -- Bush 42% Gore 55%
  • DC - Bush 9% Kerry 90% -- Bush 9% Gore 85% Nader 5%
  • FL - Bush 52% Kerry 47% -- Bush 49% Gore 49%
  • GA - Bush 59% Kerry 41% -- Bush 55% Gore 43%
  • HI - Bush 45% Kerry 54% -- Bush 37% Gore 56% Nader 6%
  • ID - Bush 68% Kerry 30% -- Bush 67% Gore 28%
  • IL - Bush 45% Kerry 55% -- Bush 43% Gore 55%
  • IN - Bush 60% Kerry 39% -- Bush 57% Gore 41%
  • IA - Bush 50% Kerry 49% -- Bush 48% Gore 49%
  • KS - Bush 62% Kerry 36% -- Bush 58% Gore 37% Nader 3%
  • KY - Bush 60% Kerry 40% -- Bush 57% Gore 41%
  • LA - Bush 57% Kerry 42% -- Bush 53% Gore 45%
  • ME - Bush 45% Kerry 53% -- Bush 44% Gore 49% Nader 6%
  • MD - Bush 43% Kerry 56% -- Bush 40% Gore 57% Nader 3%
  • MA - Bush 37% Kerry 62% -- Bush 33% Gore 60% Nader 6%
  • MI - Bush 48% Kerry 51% -- Bush 46% Gore 51%
  • MN - Bush 48% Kerry 51% -- Bush 46% Gore 48% Nader 5%
  • MS - Bush 60% Kerry 40% -- Bush 58% Gore 41%
Airbornelawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2004, 14:22   #3
Razor
Quiet Professional
 
Razor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Colorado Springs
Posts: 4,530
Quote:
Kerry improved on Gore's totals in 23 states and DC. Only in Vermont was this at Bush's expense.
COL Moroney, sir; looks like you need to put those UW skills to use once again. The EXEVAL will be in four years.
Razor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2004, 18:39   #4
NousDefionsDoc
Quiet Professional
 
NousDefionsDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: LA
Posts: 1,653
Well, in his defense, he was sickly...I mean sick.

Edit to add - I'm stealing the first one to rub lib noses in it like a bad puppy.
__________________
Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimal food or water, in austere conditions, training day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon and he made his web gear. He doesn't worry about what workout to do - his ruck weighs what it weighs, his runs end when the enemy stops chasing him. This True Believer is not concerned about 'how hard it is;' he knows either he wins or dies. He doesn't go home at 17:00, he is home.
He knows only The Cause.

Still want to quit?
NousDefionsDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2004, 18:44   #5
Achilles
SF Candidate
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: ATX
Posts: 211
Die Tom Daschle!!!!
__________________
"If you would win a man to your cause, first convince him that you are his sincere friend."
-Abraham Lincoln
Achilles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2004, 21:01   #6
Airbornelawyer
Moderator
 
Airbornelawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,947
One correction: Vermont is not the only state where Bush did worse. In South Dakota, he went from 60.3% to 59.9%. This can probably be attributed to Daschle's (ultimately unsuccessful) get-out-the-vote drive to save his own ass, rather than to any shift in the South Dakota electorate.
Airbornelawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-04-2004, 21:13   #7
Airbornelawyer
Moderator
 
Airbornelawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,947
Quote:
Kerry improved on Gore's totals in 23 states and DC. Only in Vermont was this at Bush's expense. In the other states it was basically from Nader voters.
It turns out it was 26 states.

However, the Nader thesis appears correct. When you factor in the Nader vote, the left did better in 2004 in only 7 states: Idaho, Montana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming. Most of these are solidly Republican states; Vermont is strongly Democrat and New Hampshire remains a swing state. Only in Vermont and South Dakota was the left's improvement greater than 1% (3% in Vermont and 1.9% in South Dakota).

As I said above, South Dakota's shift is probably more about Daschle. Vermont's leftward shift is probably due to liberal Vermont Republicans following Sen. Jeffords out of the GOP.
Airbornelawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2004, 12:13   #8
NousDefionsDoc
Quiet Professional
 
NousDefionsDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: LA
Posts: 1,653
Wonder what the NRA membership total looks like next to POTUS' win margin.
__________________
Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimal food or water, in austere conditions, training day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon and he made his web gear. He doesn't worry about what workout to do - his ruck weighs what it weighs, his runs end when the enemy stops chasing him. This True Believer is not concerned about 'how hard it is;' he knows either he wins or dies. He doesn't go home at 17:00, he is home.
He knows only The Cause.

Still want to quit?
NousDefionsDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2004, 12:33   #9
The Reaper
Quiet Professional
 
The Reaper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,805
Quote:
Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc
Wonder what the NRA membership total looks like next to POTUS' win margin.
More NRA members than the margin of victory.

You gotta love the Dems fascination with such a hot button topic motivating single-issue voters. I am sure that they will propose more stupid legislation in the future.

That should make the Republicans very happy.

The funniest thing to me is the libs wailing about the ignorant rednecks in the red states, after they courted the lowest of the underclass (like felons, illegal immigrants, frauds, etc.) for themselves.

TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910

De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
The Reaper is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2004, 17:56   #10
Roguish Lawyer
Consigliere
 
Roguish Lawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland (at last)
Posts: 8,824
Interesting, AL. Especially in light of the pathetically bad campaign that Bush ran. He could have kicked Kerry's ass with better managers and better debate performances, IMHO.
Roguish Lawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2004, 18:07   #11
Doc
Quiet Professional
 
Doc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Ohio
Posts: 982
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer
Interesting, AL. Especially in light of the pathetically bad campaign that Bush ran. He could have kicked Kerry's ass with better managers and better debate performances, IMHO.
Concur.
__________________





De Oppresso Liber



Doc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-05-2004, 18:13   #12
Doc
Quiet Professional
 
Doc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Ohio
Posts: 982
I'll go further to say that Bush won because voters believed him to be the protector and a man who means what he says and says what he means. That slogan could have been taken right off a sign at the SFQC.
__________________





De Oppresso Liber



Doc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2004, 00:13   #13
Airbornelawyer
Moderator
 
Airbornelawyer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,947
One more observation.

A few months back, one of the major left-wing bloggers, probably suffering from tunnel-vision, stated he knew no Gore voter who would vote for Bush, and therefore there must not be any. He assumed Kerry would benefit from all Gore's voters and Nader voters returning to the fold, which would give Kerry at least 51%. Add in the expected edge the Democrats would have in new voters due to Rock the Vote!, MoveOn and all the 527 money, as well as libertarians, paleoconservatives and others who would switch from having supported Bush, and the only question for him was how big the Kerry landslide would be.

What actually happened?

The Nader voters did return to the fold. Nader got 2,882,728 votes in 2000, and only about 404,000 and counting this year. I doubt the Naderites went to Bush.

New voters weren't as big a boon as Soros and Puffy and the Boss thought. The exit poll showed a 53/46 edge for Kerry among new voters, though there's a large margin of error in that now-infamous exit poll.

Yet Kerry lost.

Dick Morris was right. Kerry could not simultaneously appeal to lefties to get the Naderites back and appeal to Democratic moderates and so-called "9-11 voters." For every Naderite he brought back, he lost more than one Democrat.

If new voters broke at the same rate as all voters, I estimate Kerry lost 3.1 million Gore voters to Bush. If the 53/46 new voter break is correct, Kerry lost almost 3.7 million Gore voters to Bush.

The left is blaming Karl Rove and his ignorant bible-thumpin' gay-hatin' evangelicals for their loss. No doubt some evangelicals were part of the mix, but it was the former Gore voters who changed the balance.
Airbornelawyer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2004, 10:41   #14
brownapple
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Quote:
Originally Posted by Airbornelawyer
The Nader voters did return to the fold. Nader got 2,882,728 votes in 2000, and only about 404,000 and counting this year. I doubt the Naderites went to Bush.

I've seen some analysis that thinks that the Naderites did not go to Kerry. That as a result of the "dirty tricks" by the Kerry campaign to keep Nader off the ballot in many states, the Naderites either voted for Bush out of anger or did not vote in the Presidential race at all.

No way to know, but it could be that the efforts to keep Nader off the ballot backfired.
  Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 16:27.



Copyright 2004-2022 by Professional Soldiers ®
Site Designed, Maintained, & Hosted by Hilliker Technologies