Time to Call the Election

[Roguish Lawyer]

OK, ladies and gentlemen, the Election is Tuesday. Time for predictions. This is a public poll, so your answer will be viewable for all to see. Popular vote only in this one. Vote soon, because the poll stays open only 48 hours.

[Sacamuelas]

Since I wanted to actually post my true prediction... (Bush 4-6.99)
I'll just have to improvise.

SHUT UP, RL!

[Doc]

Bush 52%

Kerry 47%

Nader 1%



BTW I made this prediction two weeks ago.

Popular Vote, Bush by 5-10%

But let us not forget that it is not the popular vote that elects the President. Electoral Vote will be much more one sided in my opinion... Bush will break 300.

[Gypsy]

Pick 7-10, concur with Greenhat on the electoral.

[rubberneck]

This could get very interesting if the exit polls show Bush winning Fl, Pa, Oh and a suprising win in NJ he could go on to win Or, WA and Hi as Kerry voters on the left coast realize that their guy has lost and stay home.

When you get right down to it Bush has Kerry on the ropes in more states that went for Gore than vice versa. I would not be suprised if Bush not only won the popular vote by 10% but runs away with the electoral college.

Most of the recent poll internals show that a vast majority of Bush supporters are voting for Bush while a large percentage of Kerry "supporters" indicated their vote is more anti-Bush than pro-Kerry (in one poll with was close to 40% of Kerry supporters). One has to wonder how many of those Kerry supporters will either stay home because they don't feel comfortable about either, not cast a ballot for either Presidential candidate or go with Bush. I highly doubt that Bush will suffer any last minute defections. I can't say the same for Kerry.

I am almost tempted to say that you will see the various pundits scratching their heads at the size of the Bush victory. Either way this will be an election that will be studied for years to come.

[rubberneck]

I just finished reading this and thought it dovetailed nicely with what I was trying to say in my pervious post.


Kerry unable to crack Bush base

October 28, 2004

BY ROBERT NOVAK SUN-TIMES COLUMNIST Advertisement







Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.



That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign's final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush's strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.

The long, tortuous presidential contest has come down to who the ''security mom'' thinks can best protect her family against terrorism. Based on current polling data, Bush has won that argument in the face of Kerry's relentless attacks. That explains why the Democrat this week was not talking about health care or other standby issues of his party, but was trying to pierce Bush's security shield by harping on the disappearance of munitions in Iraq.

The difficulty that Kerry now encounters has been shrouded by misleading overnight tracking from last weekend, showing a Democratic surge that is common in Friday-through-Sunday polling. Otherwise, Kerry is in trouble. When Zogby had second thoughts Monday, he found Bush with a national lead of three percentage points and an undecided vote of only 2.7 percent.

The data shows the undecided voters in Bush's base are resolving their misgivings about the president. Zogby's subgroups in the Republican base -- such as investors, military and married couples -- are returning to Bush.

Zogby shows Kerry's advantage among women is only 3 percentage points, the same margin reflected in nightly tracking by Republican pollster Ed Goeas. The Goeas poll shows a 13-percentage-point Bush advantage among men. Goeas' poll has white men favoring Bush over Kerry, 58 percent to 35 percent. Remarkably, the count among white married women is not far behind: 53 percent for Bush, 42 percent for Kerry. The problem for the Democrats is Bush's continued large lead over Kerry concerning which candidate voters prefer to fight terrorism.

If these numbers hold up, the campaign strategy of Bush political adviser Karl Rove will be vindicated. While Kerry's strategy seems to have a thousand fathers, no presidential campaign in my experience has been so completely in the hands of one man as Bush's. Amid much private criticism in GOP ranks, Rove has concentrated on mobilizing the base behind Bush as the anti-terror candidate rather than making conventional overtures to undecided centrists.

With his base secure this week, the Bush strategy did turn to Democratic voters -- not with the usual leftward turn but appealing to hard-liners who have trouble accepting Kerry leading the war against terror. Campaigning in Wisconsin Tuesday, Bush invoked the memory of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy for their ''resolve in times of war and in hours of crisis'' -- drawing an unfavorable comparison with Kerry. Bush is after the security moms, Republican or Democrat.

On the same day, the Kerry campaign threw out previous plans and made the candidate's centerpiece a New York Times report of 380 tons of explosives found missing from Iraq. Although NBC embedded reporters said the explosives were gone when U.S. troops arrived in March 2003, Kerry insisted for two days that this was another example of Bush's inadequacy in waging the war on terror. Whether such a complex issue appeals to security moms is another matter.

A lot can happen in the next few days. In 2000, Zogby had Bush 3percentage points ahead at this stage, but Al Gore seized the lead because of the attack on Social Security privatization and the revelation of Bush's drunken-driving case.

Kerry needs what he has been unable to accomplish so far: a direct hit on Bush's anti-terrorism credentials. It is hard to imagine a Democratic victory without removing those security moms from under Bush's anti-terrorism banner.

[Gypsy]

Originally Posted by rubberneck

On the same day, the Kerry campaign threw out previous plans and made the candidate's centerpiece a New York Times report of 380 tons of explosives found missing from Iraq. Although NBC embedded reporters said the explosives were gone when U.S. troops arrived in March 2003, Kerry insisted for two days that this was another example of Bush's inadequacy in waging the war on terror. Whether such a complex issue appeals to security moms is another matter.

[/I]

Aaaand we all know how well that is working out for him. Misleading reports and all. The man doesn't have a clue.

Good article rubberneck.

[gits]

I've seen recent polls from Ohio going for kerry at an avg of 1.2%.

[Roguish Lawyer]

I just got to answer a telephone poll that obviously was sponsored by my beloved Barbara Boxer. The last question was my political party, and my response was "Can you guess?" LOL

I voted absentee already.

[rubberneck]

Originally Posted by gits

I've seen recent polls from Ohio going for kerry at an avg of 1.2%.

You have to be very careful when looking at polls as they all use a unique and archane set of statistical forumla's tp determine the difference between a likely voter and a registered voter. Also keep in mind that the republican's got caught flat footed in 2000 and have spent the last 4 years building grass roots programs to get out the vote in battleground states like Oh, Pa, Fl, Mi, Wi, Mn, Ia... If they had been this prepared in '00 Bush would have killed Gore. IMHO, barring a gross case of voter fraud by the dems Bush will carry OH, not by much but he will carry it none the less. Also bare in mind that the people attacted to Bush are the sort of people who actually follow thorugh on voting.

[Radar Rider]

I have previously forecast President Bush to win by 56% to 44% (whether that amount goes to sKerry or that Communist Party guy, the one that is at least honest enough to call himself a Communist ).

I may be a little over optimistic, but I'm sure that W will get 4 more years.

[Bravo1-3]

Kerry needs to win Ohio, but the PResident is pretty much going to live there, and to top it off, the President doesn't actually NEED to win Ohio to still win the election. Kerry actually MUST win Ohio, or he's done on the Red/Blue chart.

Hawaii is leaning to Bush within the margin of error... surely this is a sign of the impending apocalypse, whatwith the lunar eclipse last night and all.

Still, I'm going Bush with 54% of the popular vote. I just don't seethis not going to court in Ohio.

I just got back from the local DNC "Poll Watcher" volunteer meeting... they ivited me since I'm on the mailing list. Interesting stuff to saythe least. They're scared, very very scared, and that makes me happy.

[Shark Bait]

LOL!!! Gotta love it! Nobody here, so far, thinks Kerry will win. God, I love this site! No tree hugging, pole smoking, liberal butt monkeys here!!! I sure as hell hope we are all right about it!

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally Posted by Shark Bait

No tree hugging, pole smoking, liberal butt monkeys here!!!

Well, there are a couple.

BTW, great screen name!