Electoral College

[afchic]

I dislike CNN as mcuh as the next guy, but they do have a pretty good Electoral Map. http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/eca...#?battleground

If you start as it is right now Obama Safe/Lean 237, Romney Safe/Lean 191

This is how my toss up map looks:
NV- Obama
CO - Romney
IA - Romney
OH - Obama
NE - Romney
VA - Romney
NC - Romney
FL - Romney

Romney wins 277 to Obama's 261

[GreenSalsa]

I appreciate your hope, but I am still not convinced Mr Romney has much of a chance. I use this site.

http://electoral-vote.com/

Yes, it is left leaning but unfortunately it tends to be historically accurate. The site uses a series of mathematical modeling to make short term predictive analysis.

I found another site, right leaning, that uses the same type of math and that site essentially says the same thing.

http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php

I am not confident of a Republican victory.

[Sigaba]

Originally Posted by GreenSalsa

I appreciate your hope, but I am still not convinced Mr Romney has much of a chance. . . .I am not confident of a Republican victory.

FWIW, I agree.

IMO, Governor Romney needs to do three things to stand a chance:

1. convince a sizable contingent of the president's strongest supporters to stay home on election night,
2. convince undecided Americans to cast their votes for him, and
3. keep the Republican base energized.

While Romney's performance in last night's debate addressed--if only momentarily--the second objective, he is yet to do anything that helps him realize the first goal. MOO, the circle Romney needs to square so he can achieve the first objective is getting vocal elements of the right to tone down some of the rhetoric. Less background noise would give members of the far left have more opportunities to realize that the president is an opportunistic technocrat and not a true believer in leftist progressivism.

My $0.02.

[Pete]

NC - Blue state or Red state?

Folks still talk about Obama taking NC and turning it blue. Horseshit!

Obama only won NC because of the third party crowd voting for Barr.

More people voted for Barr than Obama's margin of victory over what's his name.

I'm not getting the vibs from the far right in NC right now that says they are going to run off third party like they did last time.

[afchic]

Originally Posted by Sigaba

FWIW, I agree.

IMO, Governor Romney needs to do three things to stand a chance:

1. convince a sizable contingent of the president's strongest supporters to stay home on election night,
2. convince undecided Americans to cast their votes for him, and
3. keep the Republican base energized.

While Romney's performance in last night's debate addressed--if only momentarily--the second objective, he is yet to do anything that helps him realize the first goal. MOO, the circle Romney needs to square so he can achieve the first objective is getting vocal elements of the right to tone down some of the rhetoric. Less background noise would give members of the far left have more opportunities to realize that the president is an opportunistic technocrat and not a true believer in leftist progressivism.

My $0.02.

IMHO 1 has already happened to some extent. The youth vote is gone. There is no reason for them to show up and vote for the One. Too many of them are out of college and living in their bedroom of their youth.

I think he did a pretty good job of accomplishing 2 and 3 last night. If the on the fence focus groups on any chanel are even 50% accurate he changed the narrative last night.

Ryan is going to KILL Biden next week. Ryan is the ace in hole Romney has about exciting his base.

We'll see

[afchic]

Originally Posted by Pete

NC - Blue state or Red state?

Folks still talk about Obama taking NC and turning it blue. Horseshit!

Obama only won NC because of the third party crowd voting for Barr.

More people voted for Barr than Obama's margin of victory over what's his name.

I'm not getting the vibs from the far right in NC right now that says they are going to run off third party like they did last time.

I feel the same way about Colorado.

[MR2]

Originally Posted by Sigaba

IMO, Governor Romney needs to do three things to stand a chance:

1. convince a sizable contingent of the president's strongest supporters to stay home on election night,
2. convince undecided Americans to cast their votes for him, and
3. keep the Republican base energized.

4. Make peace with the Ron Paul crowd and convince them and other Libertarians to make their votes relevant and vote for him/against Obama.

[MtnGoat]

See the issues I have with the Electoral Votes is.. DO WE the American People realy elect our POTUS?? Or do the Electoral intellectuals vote for that state??

So Red or Blue as far as your state Electorals go.

[Dozer523]

Originally Posted by Sigaba

FWIW, I agree.

IMO, Governor Romney needs to do three things to stand a chance: [LIST=1][*]convince a sizable contingent of the president's strongest supporters to stay home on election night, .

And how could he possibly do THAT? Adjust the time space continum so they think it's Monday?
Ahhhh, yeah . . . televise a football game so they think it's Monday night football! Evil genius laugh goes here.

Originally Posted by MR2

4. Make peace with the Ron Paul crowd and convince them and other Libertarians to make their votes relevant and vote for him/against Obama.

Too hard. Go with the football idea.

[Dozer523]

Originally Posted by MtnGoat

See the issues I have with the Electoral Votes is.. DO WE the American People realy elect our POTUS?? Or do the Electoral intellectuals vote for that state??

Oh come on. We been doin' it this way forever. And yeah, in its convoluted way, it does make sure the people elect the POTUS


Unless his name is Al Gore. (Still complainin'?)