The First Debate: Post-Debate Analysis

**Roguish Lawyer** · 10-01-2004, 11:33

OK, the debate was last night. We now have seen some media spin, some focus group reactions, and some preliminary polling data. We've had a chance to talk to others about their reactions.

Let's discuss the following:

1. Who won the debate viewed strictly as a debating contest?

2. Who won the debate as a political battle? Each candidate had objectives -- did either or both succeed in reaching them?

3. What did Bush and Kerry do right? What did they do wrong?

4. Did this debate make a difference in the race?

And anything else, of course. I've included a multiple-choice public poll too -- if you vote, people can see what your answers were.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 10-01-2004, 11:40

I guess I'll start off with my views.

I thought Kerry was a more polished and effective debater than Bush, but I think most people expected that. The most important thing in this debate was for Bush not to screw up -- no gaffes! And he accomplished that. I think he sent some good messages, although he really missed a lot of opportunities to make Kerry look like a fool.

Given where things stand, I think Kerry needed a knockout and he did not get one. I'd call it a draw or slight edge to Kerry, but overall I don't think the debate will move the poll numbers very much. The TV ads run during the next 30-40 days will be more important than the debates.

We still have two more debates to survive. We survived the first, and to me that's a win.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 10-01-2004, 12:04

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/polit...ll_040930.html

10-01-2004, 13:06

I think that Bush accomplished his objectives, made his position clear. He did miss some opportunities, as Kerry said some very stupid things, but those could be exploited by columnists, etc.

On the other hand, although Kerry seemed more polished and professional, he made some major gaffs, including changing his tune on whether Hussein was a threat from start to finish. For those who actually pay attention to the substance (I realize that is probably a minority), I think Kerry hurt himself.

I hope he does get hammered (I'm doing my part, have put my own analysis out by email and up on a couple of sites. Will put it here if requested. It is long because it is comments interspersed with the transcript).

Air.177 · 10-01-2004, 13:42

I had to Leave the room for fear of shooting the Television. That and my cursing scared the animals.

I chose to read Billy Waugh's Book Instead and think I made the better choice

flyboy1 · 10-01-2004, 13:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

I guess I'll start off with my views.

I thought Kerry was a more polished and effective debater than Bush, but I think most people expected that. The most important thing in this debate was for Bush not to screw up -- no gaffes! And he accomplished that. I think he sent some good messages, although he really missed a lot of opportunities to make Kerry look like a fool.

Given where things stand, I think Kerry needed a knockout and he did not get one. I'd call it a draw or slight edge to Kerry, but overall I don't think the debate will move the poll numbers very much. The TV ads run during the next 30-40 days will be more important than the debates.

We still have two more debates to survive. We survived the first, and to me that's a win.

RL. I agree, well said.
He is definitely not the most polished speaker of the two, but you have to love the manner in which he speaks from his heart. It makes the American people feel like he is the "guy next door" or at the least puts his pants on the same way most of us do.
I am definitely glad he did not get into a severe mud slinging contest with Kerry.
He looked like the better man for NOT doing so.

Kerry, on the other hand, comes off like a used car salesman like BC.
We cannot afford a wishy-washy pres., as Kerry undoubtedly has portrayed himself, at this point in time.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 10-01-2004, 14:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Greenhat

I'm doing my part, have put my own analysis out by email and up on a couple of sites. Will put it here if requested. It is long because it is comments interspersed with the transcript.

Please!

rubberneck · 10-01-2004, 14:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

OK, the debate was last night. We now have seen some media spin, some focus group reactions, and some preliminary polling data. We've had a chance to talk to others about their reactions.

Let's discuss the following:

1. Who won the debate viewed strictly as a debating contest?

2. Who won the debate as a political battle? Each candidate had objectives -- did either or both succeed in reaching them?

3. What did Bush and Kerry do right? What did they do wrong?

4. Did this debate make a difference in the race?

And anything else, of course. I've included a multiple-choice public poll too -- if you vote, people can see what your answers were.

1) On substance the President won hands down. Kerry's positions are too inconsistent for a man who would be President during wartime. The President however looked as stiff as a board, tired and aggrevated and came away a loser in the style department and sadly thats what the great unwashed looks for.

2) Kerry certianly helped himself while the President didn't shoot himself in the foot. I would say that Kerry hekped himself more but I don't think people put too much stock in the debates.

3) Kerry went on the offensive and had the President playing defense. He told some great big lies and the President didn't attack him for it. The President did a good job of point out why Kerry's various positions on the same issue could have serious real world impacts.

4) Short term Kerry gets a couple point bounce but long term no. Quite frankly Kerry should have cleaned the President's clock if you to believe the press. Kerry has been painted as a master debater with a steel trap mind while the President has been painted intellectually uncurious. If those characters were based in reality it would have be no contest but it was. The President just needs to be himself down the strech and whatever tempoaray bounch Kerry got will peter out.

pulque · 10-01-2004, 15:33

I want a t-shirt with the Polish flag that says "you forgot poland"

1026 · 10-01-2004, 17:31

In the interest of appearing 'presidential', they really didn't take the gloves off. The one to watch will be Cheney and Edwards.

**Roguish Lawyer** · 10-01-2004, 17:49

Can I just say that I love public polls?

Saca, ktek and pulque: you guys have guts. LOL

NousDefionsDoc · 10-01-2004, 17:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by pulque

I want a t-shirt with the Polish flag that says "you forgot poland"

I like it. Maybe a Kerry grill on the back with the Ghostbuster red circle through it.

Sigi · 10-01-2004, 18:28

I heard Kerry say:
1) Unilateral talks with N Korea
2) Iraq is a mess
3) The President rushed us off to war.

I heard President Bush say:
1) Terrorists need to know we are committed
2) America is better off without SH
3) I am a good leader

I give Kerry the edge, although I think his Foreign Policy is worse than George W's. If Bush can't explain why we are NOW in Iraq, then I am voting for Kerry. The CIC needs to do a much better job at debates than that.

Bush repeats the same scenario. It 'aint happening like he wants it to.

NousDefionsDoc · 10-01-2004, 18:32

Quote:

If Bush can't get his head out of his ass

You'll want to re-word that I think. He is still the President of the United States. When he leaves office, you can post whatever you want about him as far as I'm concerned, until then...

10-01-2004, 18:38

Good observations.

I don't think in the long run this debate will change much on either side.

the only frustrating thing was that W had some great openings where he could have nailed kerry, but he didn't take those opportunities. I was shouting the lines to him but I guess he didn't hear them...too bad great zingers.

President Bush had the goods as relates to substance, he came across as having a depth of knowledge gained by hard years of leadership and tough decisions. He showed the country how the POTUS relates to other leaders and to the bad guys, with strong character, humility, and resolve.

Sen. kerry on the other hand showed us his manicure and polished nails, new haircut, and nice suit. You forget that much of this country only cares about symbolism and not substance. Ever since JFK the television image has taken on much to much import, slick willie continued it, and now jfk wants to stake his place as well. 'but he looked so presidential.....hawg wash, a President's worth resides in his character, not his wardrobe.

W is who he appears to be, real. jfk is a chameleon who changes with his surroundings, but one thing he can't be is a man of moral character, no matter how the camera sees him.

Maya