America's Best Agents In Cairo: US-trained Egyptian Officers

[Richard]

We had three Egyptian Army officers in my IOAC class. Pentagon training of foreign military officers in the US may be the best investment in democracy as thousands of Egyptian officers have been exposed to US democratic values in the last several decades. In whose favor will those officers now act?

Richard

America's Best Agents In Cairo: US-trained Egyptian Officers
CSM, 3 Feb 2011

America’s best hope for democracy in Egypt and the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak may not be the protesters in the streets. It could be mid-level officers in Egypt’s Army.

Thousands of them have received official training and education in the United States, where they were exposed to the values of a democratic society, such as human rights and civilian rule over the military.

As events unfold in Cairo, the Army may yet turn the tide. Much depends on how the rank and file see their role. The Army has already stated it will not shoot the pro-democracy protesters. It even describes their demands as “legitimate.”

And yet soldiers stood by this week when pro-Mubarak groups attacked the demonstrators in Cairo.

Many eyes are on Lt. Gen. Sami Anan, the Egyptian Army’s chief of staff, to see if he now feels pressure from the officer ranks or common soldiers to turn against Mr. Mubarak.

While he received training in Russia and France, he has had regular contact with the Pentagon. Egypt and the US have had close military ties since the 1979 Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty – but especially because the US provides $1.3 billion in military aid to Egypt, or about a third of its military budget. In addition, hundreds of Pentagon officials operate in the country.

But Egypt is one of many friendly but authoritarian-run countries that sends officers to the US for various types of education, usually at institutions such as the Army War College or the National Defense University. The officers come under a little-known program called International Military Education and Training (IMET).

Their informal contacts with Americans, it is hoped, will instill democratic values that might be useful later during a confrontation in their home country.

That was the case, for example, in the Philippines in 1986, when American-educated officers helped civilians oust a dictator there. Yet during pro-democracy uprisings in Burma, the US had few officers in that country’s military who had been trained in the US or who had the clout to push for democracy.

IMET’s record is quite mixed on its ability to spread democracy through foreign armies. In Egypt’s case, all that Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said of its Army in recent days is that it showed “professionalism.”

Little is known of the Pentagon’s efforts to reach US-trained Egyptian officers and advise them to show restraint in dealing with the protests. Mubarak, a former Air Force commander, may fear the Army. He reportedly has tried to hold down the number of officers trained in the US. And after the protests began last month, he quickly filled government posts with former military officers in hopes of retaining military loyalty.

The Egyptian armed forces has a strong desire to keep good relations with the US and Israel, and perhaps to prevent Islamic militants from gaining power. It seems committed to constitutional government, and probably opposed the apparent ambition of Mubarak to groom his son for succession.

In coming days, the Army may be forced into a difficult choice: Support Mubarak, or the hundreds of thousands of civilians defying him in the streets.

Let’s hope the officers who have seen how a real democracy can work will pick the right side.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/...ptian-officers

[ZonieDiver]

You don't use a shotgun to go after a cockroach.

You do in S. Florida!

[Pete]

I think the Military - for the most part - will sit this one out. Maybe step in for a limited period - but mainly in the role of keeping order.

I also think after the new government is seated a purge will begin in the officer ranks.

Depending on how deep, how fast and how many ranks "reliable" officers are jumped up this will have a great impact on any large scale coordinated operations.

And think of the military cooperation between the US and Egypt. Will it remain at the same level if an Islamist government is seated?

Again - look to Turkey.

[akv]

Originally Posted by Pete

And think of the military cooperation between the US and Egypt. Will it remain at the same level if an Islamist government is seated

Anything is possible, and as folks have suggested Islamists could inject themselves into the ensuing power vacuum they themselves could not bring about, however all of these countries had front row seats to what happened to the Iraqi regime that crossed American interests. Optimists might hope for a reformation in this part of the world, while cynics fear a second Islamic Caliphate. Perhaps the middle course is most likely, they aren't ready for democracy, nor do they want fundamentalist Islam. As is the tradition in the Third World, they will simply trade one despotic management team for the new one, and as the realities of geopolitics and recent history set in, the new rulers will realize you don't have to love America, but you better continue to play ball seeing what happened in Iraq.

The dilemma for the Obama administration is the solution of backing the opposition in Egypt might help stabilize that country, but this outcome could be set in motion a destabilizing precedent or catalyst for other members of the region. A sticky wicket as our English friends would say.

[MtnGoat]

I'm really surprised that there has been no to about a military coup planned to turn the clock back.

With everything going on in the area (region) I think [U.S.] stepping is the right thing.