Mubarak flees to London (initial report, unconfirmed)

[nmap]

Interesting development, eh?

LINK


An Italian news publication has just announced that Gamal Mubarak, Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's son who is widely tipped as his successor, has fled to London with his family, Arabic website Akhbar al-Arab said on Tuesday, January 24, 2011.

Gamal Mubarak is seen as Hosni Mubarak's successor. The report is unconfirmed, but goes on to say that the family and 97 pieces of luggage on board left for London on Tuesday from an airport in western Cairo.

The day has seen a revolutionary uprising of Egyptians against the regime of Hosni Mubarak asking for his resignation. Police and protesters clashed, and an anti-riot police officer was killed in Central Cairo.

Taking part in the protest were supporters of former UN nuclear watchdog chief Mohammed El Baradei, the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood, the opposition al-Ghad party, the al-Wafd party and supporters of the '6 April' movement.

Mubarak has shown little tolerance for protests in the past.

[silentreader]

Wow... this should be... interesting.

If Mubarak's government collapses it's a good thing for the cause of freedom, but (likely) bad for the foreign policy of the US.

[JJ_BPK]

I would be very concerned that a collapse of the current Egyptian government, would be similar to the fall of the Shah of Iran.

[incarcerated]

On January 13th during the Tunisian coup, anti-government demonstrators orchestrated false reports that the Foreign Minister had resigned. May be more of the same here regarding Mubarak. If this report proves accurate, it will dramatically alter Israel’s security situation.

[Defend]

U.S., in shift, bluntly urges Mubarak to reform now

By Arshad Mohammed

WASHINGTON | Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:35pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States bluntly urged Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak on Wednesday to make political reforms in the face of protesters demanding his ouster, marking a pivot in its stance toward a key Arab ally.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton delivered the message at a news conference with the foreign minister of Jordan, another Arab country that watched the ouster of Tunisia's president in a popular revolt two weeks ago.

Police in Cairo fought with thousands of Egyptians who defied a government ban on Wednesday to protest against Mubarak's 30-year-old rule, firing tear gas at the crowds and dragging away demonstrators.

The revolt in Tunisia has prompted questions about the stability of other Arab governments and initially dragged down equity, bond and foreign exchange prices in parts of the region, notably Egypt.

Tunisia's veteran strongman Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali was swept from power on January 14 after weeks of protests.

Clinton minced no words, suggesting Egypt's government had to act now if it wanted to avert a similar outcome and urging it not to crack down on peaceful protests or disrupt the social networking sites that help organize and accelerate them.

"We believe strongly that the Egyptian government has an important opportunity at this moment in time to implement political, economic and social reforms to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people," Clinton said in a statement with Jordan's Nasser Judeh at her side.

"We urge the Egyptian authorities not to prevent peaceful protests or block communications including on social media sites," Clinton told reporters in the most blunt comments to date by the United States urging Mubarak to undertake reforms.

GENUINE CHANGE

Robert Danin of the Council on Foreign Relations think tank said Clinton's remarks for the first time appeared to make clear what the United States wants to see in Egypt: genuine change that originates from the government rather than a dramatic overthrow as occurred in Tunisia.

As the first Arab state to make peace with Israel, Egypt has much greater strategic importance to the United States than Tunisia. Egypt has long received major U.S. aid and supported Washington's efforts to promote a wider Arab-Israeli peace.

"This is not a walking away from the alliance with Egypt in any way but, at the same time, putting the Egyptian government on notice that changes are going to have to come pretty quickly," Danin said.

"It is trying to lay out a way there can be managed change if the regime is responsive to the people," he said. "It (the Obama administration) doesn't want to see the means adopted in Tunisia -- which would necessitate the leadership to flee."

The White House took a similar stance, making clear that it was monitoring events closely and that it fully supported the Egyptian people's right to peacefully protest.

"We are supportive of the universal rights of assembly (and) speech. ... We would stress quite clearly for all involved that expressions should be free from violence," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters aboard Air Force One.

"This is an important time for the government to demonstrate its responsibilities to the people of Egypt in recognizing those universal rights," Gibbs said.

(Additional reporting by Ross Colvin and Andrew Quinn; Editing by Will Dunham)

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70P71O20110126

[mark46th]

Who is guarding the canal?

[Badger52]

With a 2nd hand source (human, so no URL) saying that Mubarak chaired an NDP crisis meeting this AM, me wonders how much of this is RUMINT. Maybe just pre-positioned his amenities.

[nmap]

The situation continues to develop.



LINK

Mohamed ElBaradei lands in Cairo:

Excerpt:

'There's no going back'Supporters insist Egypt's people will make change from below

Many in Egypt are accusing Mohamed ElBaradei of being a latecomer but in the end flight MS 798 from Vienna landed in Cairo 15 minutes ahead of schedule, carrying with it a man ready to assume the presidency.

Egypt's beleaguered regime was waiting. Dozens of metal traffic barriers manned by plainclothes state security officers had been erected throughout the terminal to block the public from mobbing ElBaradei when he arrived, but they proved no match for the media scrum as the 68-year-old emerged with his wife. "Will you be on the streets tomorrow?" screamed one journalist. "Doctor ElBaradei, the people of Egypt need you tomorrow," yelled a passer-by in Arabic.

Hemmed in by a throng of cameras, ElBaradei had little choice but to give an impromptu press conference.

"This is a critical time in the life of Egypt and I have come to participate with the Egyptian people," he said. "The regime has not been listening.

"If people, in particular young people, if they want me to lead the transition, I will not let them down. My priority right now ... is to see a new regime and to see a new Egypt through peaceful transition.

"I advise the government to listen to the people and not to use violence. There's no going back. I hope the regime stops violence, stops detaining people, stops torturing people. This will be completely counterproductive."

Only a smattering of well-wishers made it down to greet ElBaradei, a far cry from the scenes last February when the former UN nuclear weapons chief was met by more than a thousand supporters at the beginning of his triumphant return.

[nmap]

It seems the Muslim Brotherhood is going to participate in the protests.

LINK

[nmap]

A series of photos from the area.

LINK

[incarcerated]

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201...ecurity-Vacuum

Security Vacuum in Egypt

January 29, 2011 | 1652 GMT
Egyptian protesters stand around tanks deployed in Cairo on Jan. 29Related Tens of thousands of protesters are gathering Jan. 29 demanding the resignation of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in defiance of an army curfew in Cairo, Alexandria and Suez. While a number of uncertainties remain over Egypt’s political future, a security crisis is building in the streets.

Egyptian police and Central Security Forces (CSF) have largely abandoned the streets following the Jan. 28 protests. The CSF represents the backbone of the country’s internal security apparatus. Under Mubarak, this force grew to about 325,000, outnumbering the 300,000-strong army (though two-thirds of the army is made up of conscripts and another 375,000 are considered reserves). The CSF, along with the 60,000-strong National Guard, are specially trained and equipped to deal with riots and insurgencies....

With no police on the streets, crime has skyrocketed. Prison outbreaks have been reported across Cairo, and criminals spent the night robbing and destroying banks and shops in the resulting chaos. Several central bank offices have reportedly been attacked across Egypt over the past several hours. A STRATFOR source in Cairo explained how impromptu neighborhood watch groups have formed, where civilians are standing guard in front of banks, shops, hospitals and even the national museum to try and deter looters.

This security factor could end up affecting the sustainability of the protests, as many people are too afraid to leave their homes and join the demonstrations for fear of being robbed.

Army personnel in tanks and armored personnel carriers are meanwhile patrolling the major areas where demonstrators are gathering, but their primary mission is to demonstrate the presence of state authority, not to protect the people. The military may still be well-positioned to re-impose order at the highest level of the regime and create the conditions for Mubarak’s departure, but given the hostilities that exist between the army and police and the glaring absence of police on the streets, the military faces an even greater challenge in trying to re-impose security in the country overall.

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http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/201...im-brotherhood

Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood

January 29, 2011 | 1655 GMT
The following is a report from a STRATFOR source in Hamas. Hamas, which formed in Gaza as an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood (MB), has an interest in exaggerating its role and coordination with the MB in this crisis. The following information has not been confirmed. Nonetheless, there is a great deal of concern building in Israel and the United States in particular over the role of the MB in the demonstrations and whether a political opening will be made for the Islamist organization in Egypt.

The Egyptian police are no longer patrolling the Rafah border crossing into Gaza. Hamas armed men are entering into Egypt and are closely collaborating with the MB. The MB has fully engaged itself in the demonstrations, and they are unsatisfied with the dismissal of the Cabinet. They are insisting on a new Cabinet that does not include members of the ruling National Democratic Party.

Security forces in plainclothes are engaged in destroying public property in order to give the impression that many protesters represent a public menace. The MB is meanwhile forming people’s committees to protect public property and also to coordinate demonstrators’ activities, including supplying them with food, beverages and first aid.

[Utah Bob]

Not Hosni, his son

[Team Sergeant]

"Mubarak flees", I love it when I hear those words, FLEE. Like little rats.

It'd be nice to see a few more middle eastern dictators "flee".....

[mojaveman]

Originally Posted by mark46th

Who is guarding the canal?

That was one of my first thoughts. I think the American presence in the Sinai Peninsula ended some years ago.

[The Reaper]

I think we are better off with the devil we know than the devil we don't.

Mubarak has been pretty reliably pro-US, and he has generally kept his radicals in Egypt in check.

I do not believe that the majority of the opposition who is out in the streets would be so accomodating.

And I really doubt that Egypt is suddenly going to become a burgeoning democratic state, regardless of who is in charge.

This could rapidly turn into another situation like Iran did, especially if the Muslim Brotherhood takes over. The pro-US dictator left, and the religious fanatics seized control.

TR