China's New Missile: A Game Changer?

[nmap]

Did a search for "China" and "missile", but found nothing. The following seems interesting.

So...comments?

LINK

China's Challenge: As tensions elevate on the Korean peninsula, Pyongyang's patron deploys a weapon designed to sink the very ships we are sending to protect an ally. This does not bode well.

The prospects that the Korean War, which ended in only an interminable armistice, may resume has become an increasingly real possibility in recent months.

That its patron, China, without which North Korea would collapse of its own rot, now has deployed a missile designed to target and sink U.S. carrier battle groups adds a new and disturbing element to any confrontation in the region.

Admiral Robert Willard, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, told the Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun last Sunday that China's touted "carrier-killer," an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) designated the Dong Feng-21D, had reached "initial operational capability."
This version of China's land-based mobile medium-range missile is off the drawing boards and in the field.

"Beijing has successfully developed, tested, and deployed the world's first weapons system capable of targeting a moving carrier strike group from long-range, land-based, mobile launchers," confirms Andrew Erickson, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College.

Erickson says that at least one unit of China's Second Artillery Corps is equipped with the DF-21D.

Defense analysts have called the weapon a "game-changer," as have we — one that could force U.S. carrier battle groups to keep their distance and stay away from areas of Chinese interest or territorial claims, such as Taiwan or Japan's Shenkaku islands, both of which Beijing claims are Chinese territory.

The land-based missile is designed to target and track aircraft carrier groups with the help of satellites, unmanned aerial vehicles and over-the-horizon radar. Launched into space, the DF-21D reenters the atmosphere, maneuvering at 10 times the speed of sound towards its target.

Aircraft carriers and their accompanying ships would find it difficult if not impossible to defend themselves against such a threat.

In September, Defense Secretary Robert Gates admitted that such an operational weapon would change the way the U.S. deploys its carriers in a crisis.

Our Aegis-equipped cruisers and destroyers offer some defense, but there are not enough of them. We have only 24 Burke- and Ticonderoga-class BMD (ballistic missile defense) warships, not all of which will be available at any given time. Today, these ships are committed to defending Europe from Iranian missiles, as well as other Persian Gulf states.

"The Navy has long had to fear carrier-killing capabilities," says Patrick Cronin, a senior director at the non-partisan Center for a New American Security. "The emerging Chinese anti-ship missile capability, and in particular the DF-21D, represents the first post-Cold War capability that is both potentially capable of stopping our naval projection and is deliberately designed for that purpose."

Wallace "Chip" Gregson, assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific security affairs, said in a speech earlier this month that such anti-access weapons "threaten our primary means of projecting power, our bases, our sea and air assets, and the networks that support them."

How would the U.S., with a dwindling fleet, respond to this new threat?

"One approach is to withdraw, of course," Paul Giarra, a former Navy commander and Defense Department senior Japan country director, says. "But that's the whole point the Chinese are trying to make."

Except for some mild expressions of concern out of the Pentagon, the administration has said little about this rising threat and done even less.

As China's military budget races forward with double-digit increases, ours shrinks ever lower as a percentage of GDP as our Navy shrinks and advanced weapons programs are curtailed.

As Robert Fisher, a Chinese military affairs specialist, notes, "Clearly the Chinese communist Leadership is not impressed with the administration's ending of F-22 production, its retirement of the Navy's nuclear cruise missile, START Treaty reductions in U.S. missile warheads, and its refusal to consider U.S. space warfare capabilities."

The journey to military surrender begins with a single step.

[uplink5]

So...comments?

While it is still in need of further testing since it hasn't been tested on an actual target ship yet, it is troublesome. Perhaps the best defense is a good anti-satellite system like what the Chinese have also been developing?

I think it's not a coincidence that as N Korea is putting its head squarely up its ass, China rushes to deploy an untested system in the hopes of our backing down in effective support of S. Korea. Ultimately, it should have no effect upon our commitments to S Korea and the region, tactically though I’m sure there will be some nervous pollywogs.....jd

[Sigaba]

Originally Posted by nmap

Did a search for "China" and "missile", but found nothing. The following seems interesting.

So...comments?

<SNIP>

Dr. Gloom--

AKV got the ball rolling on this discussion here.

But even before then, some guy named NMAP started this thread here.

But hey, I sometimes look for my keys...when I'm holding them in my hand.

(Well, okay, maybe more often than sometimes.)

[T-Rock]

I suspect this would be the perfect countermeasure The sooner it can be deployed the better:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1q_rRicAwI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BfU-wMwL2U

[uplink5]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

I am no expert, but I would just find it really extreme for the Chinese to actually try and sink a U.S. carrier if we sent them to aid South Korea if war broke out on the peninsula.

Sinking a carrier would be an outright declaration of war. I mean that's a total no-holds-barred, throw-down-the-gloves, BRING IT ON type of action. Depending on the leadership of the government, maybe America would slinky back, but it could also backfire completely on the Chinese. We could strike them I am sure, do things to damage their economy, allow Japan to become nuclear-armed which the Chinese do not want, it could make way for a President with an aggressive foreign policy towards the Chinese, it would completely justify the folks saying China will be a major threat in the near-future and thus make it much easier to justify greatly increasing defense spending (which I am sure the Chinese also do not want), etc...

I agree that China wouldn't want to go to war, their not ready yet. For them it might be enough to just keep us nervous in the hopes that we would try to avoid overstretching ourselves in S Korea. But, if North and South Korea, with US support go at it, and when the North start losing their ass, the hardliner Chinese politburo would attack to keep the North Korean buffer. They've done it before; we can assume no less...jd

[nmap]

Originally Posted by Sigaba

Dr. Gloom--

You know, Sigaba...I do believe that, deep down, you're a scholar.

Seriously, thanks for the links. I don't know why they slipped my mind - for that matter, I'm not sure why I didn't see them in the search. But they do add some great background information.

[Sigaba]

Originally Posted by nmap

You know, Sigaba...I do believe that, deep down, you're a scholar.

Seriously, thanks for the links. I don't know why they slipped my mind - for that matter, I'm not sure why I didn't see them in the search. But they do add some great background information.

Nmap--

Clearly, something has gone horribly wrong in your acculturation as a denizen of the Ivory Tower. It is all about self-referentiality.

Please refer to your Egghead Quick Start Guide, Section 1-4, to reconfigure your default settings.

[uplink5]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

I believe the Chinese would definitely do all sorts of things to undermine the U.S. and even attack our forces, but in a more indirect fashion I'd think. I can't imagine them literally just launching a missile themselves to sink a carrier. They could sink a carrier and still lose the NK buffer, meanwhile also risking losing a lot more at such a point from possible/likely U.S. retaliation.

I agree it would be nuts but this is the message their sending by depoying this capability. We would have to assume they intend to use it if certain lines are crossed. They've been threatening our Navy trying to expand their territorial claims in the South China sea as sovereign territory, as well as their uproar over US operations in the Yellow sea. They've been expanding their offensive nuclear and conventional missle and nuke sub capabilities, their most senior military commanders have been threatening our destruction with renewed vigor, and with this anti ship ballistic missle's deployment, our Navy’s traditional response to Chinese aggressiveness appear much more dangerous.

China has changed much since chairman Mao but, more remains unchanged than is commonly portrayed....jd

[Wolf07]

Most interesting in that it is reminiscent of an article I read a while ago about the possibility of this exact scenario playing out. The sinking of a U.S. Aircraft carrier would result in a dramatic shift in the playing field, and the Chinese could do it without getting stuck with the responsibility.

Thank goodness for the Phalanx, and the Sea Ram.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RIM-116...apon_system.29

Both are combat proven, and the Sea Ram is specifically designed to defeat super sonic sea skimming missiles.

Let's just hope it doesn't happen any time soon.

[uplink5]

Originally Posted by Wolf07

Both are combat proven, and the Sea Ram is specifically designed to defeat super sonic sea skimming missiles.

Unfortunately the DF-21D is not a sea skimmer. it's meant to be shot into space, reenter the atmosphere and I believe be visualy guided to its target at about ten times the speed of sound. Some of our guided missle cruisres and destroyeers, 24 of them I think, have an anti ballistic missle capability and might be able to knock them down. Maybe not....jd

[nmap]

China, at this point, can (IMO, YMMV) play a waiting game. Granted, there are some serious economic problems in China. However, the U.S. may be facing a budget crunch. It is, perhaps, worth asking whether the military budget will be spared.

In such a situation, we might have a weaker navy in a few years than we do today. We might also hesitate (a lot) before we risked an expensive carrier. The DF-21D, along with a few other developments that may occur, would surely affect the balance of power.

Here's the problem, IMO - China will be seen as a rising new superpower while the U.S. is perceived to fade. Pax Americana would end. The new balance, whatever it might be, would probably not be favorable to the U.S.

My tentative conclusion - life in the U.S. might become a great deal more austere over the next decade or so.

[uplink5]

Originally Posted by nmap

China, at this point, can (IMO, YMMV) play a waiting game. Granted, there are some serious economic problems in China. However, the U.S. may be facing a budget crunch. It is, perhaps, worth asking whether the military budget will be spared.

In such a situation, we might have a weaker navy in a few years than we do today. We might also hesitate (a lot) before we risked an expensive carrier. The DF-21D, along with a few other developments that may occur, would surely affect the balance of power.

Here's the problem, IMO - China will be seen as a rising new superpower while the U.S. is perceived to fade. Pax Americana would end. The new balance, whatever it might be, would probably not be favorable to the U.S.

My tentative conclusion - life in the U.S. might become a great deal more austere over the next decade or so.

IMO-China can indeed wait, if they have a choice. What's curious right now is whether China would come to Korea's aid, or perhaps position for regime change while trying to keep an ally on their border. It is thought that the hardliners would never accept a unified democratic Korea on their border, while there are others who could accept this, especially if it means avoiding a costly military and economic war. Unfortunately, the hardliners still seem to be very much in control.

I do believe that our Navy is so abundantly superior that, as long as our budget issues don’t overwhelm us, we’ll have sufficient deterrent for quite awhile.

As far as our budget goes, DS Gates has made known that there will be cuts, but there are changes under foot to consolidate efforts, unify or eliminate commands, tighten waste and fraud issues and otherwise trim the fat. He's assured the commanders that there will be money for all war fighting requirements and contingencies but who knows what will happen next year.

Finally, I'm also concerned about whether the US is fading and of course, China is on an upward course. I do remember though that during the Carter years, we were also fading dramatically while the Soviets were feeling their oats. Ultimately, we did recover and the Soviets crashed. I can only hope that common sense will prevail and we can avert another downward slide from bringing us down too far....jd

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

I am no expert, but I would just find it really extreme for the Chinese to actually try and sink a U.S. carrier if we sent them to aid South Korea if war broke out on the peninsula.

Sinking a carrier would be an outright declaration of war. I mean that's a total no-holds-barred, throw-down-the-gloves, BRING IT ON type of action. Depending on the leadership of the government, maybe America would slinky back, but it could also backfire completely on the Chinese. We could strike them I am sure, do things to damage their economy, allow Japan to become nuclear-armed which the Chinese do not want, it could make way for a President with an aggressive foreign policy towards the Chinese, it would completely justify the folks saying China will be a major threat in the near-future and thus make it much easier to justify greatly increasing defense spending (which I am sure the Chinese also do not want), etc...

This game would depend on what you expect the other side to do, which is up to the leadership.

What retaliation could you expect this administration to bring to bear with a carrier sinking and a couple of thousand sailors in the water? A UN resolution? Are we willing to strike Chinese land targets over this?

What would we do if they fired it and it did not hit the carrier? Give them another chance?

What are the CoAs here?

I think that the Obama administration is weak and craven, and the other nations of the world know it.

If I were a a betting man, I would not rule out the Chinese being serious with this threat, and us getting hit without any real retaliation. Our options are limited and our leadership feckless and impotent.

Just my .02, YMMV.

TR

[lindy]

Originally Posted by uplink5

Unfortunately the DF-21D is not a sea skimmer. it's meant to be shot into space, reenter the atmosphere and I believe be visually guided to its target at about ten times the speed of sound. Some of our guided missle cruisres and destroyeers, 24 of them I think, have an anti ballistic missle capability and might be able to knock them down. Maybe not....jd

Therein is the Achilles Heel since one cannot hit what one cannot see. It's all about Electronic Warfare these days.

A torpedo is easier and has a much higher probability of a hit.

[Gold Eagle]

If we get into it with China Walmart wouldn't be pleased. We keep pumping our money into a communist country.