Why China’s Navy is a Threat
EAST ASIA | SECURITY September 17, 2010
By James R. Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara
Sceptics who downplay China's growing maritime strength are mistaken. South-east Asian policymakers should ignore them.
Civilian academics who study military affairs like to hold forth on tactical matters. But this can lead to misguided advice. Exhibit A: Prof. Bernard Loo of Singapore's Rajaratnam School of International Relations recently maintained that there's 'less than meets the eye' to the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) combat reach in South-east Asia. Now, he insists, 'is not the time to press the panic button.'
This upbeat appraisal rests on several flimsy assumptions and claims. If they heed Loo's advice, South-east Asian governments that can ill afford complacency will seriously misjudge the Chinese maritime challenge. They need not panic, but they must cope with China's waxing naval might—starting now.
First of all, Loo deprecates 'an alleged aircraft carrier-killing cruise missile,' suggesting a sea-skimming anti-ship missile with a range of a few score miles. But the anti-ship missile that vexes China-watchers is an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), a weapon whose range, speed and hitting power dwarf that of any cruise missile. Estimates vary, but should the PLA perfect its ASBM, Chinese racketeers could pound away at ships underway up to 2,000 miles away.
What would this mean? It means that PLA forces could range the entire South China Sea from mobile launchers positioned on Hainan Island or elsewhere along the South China coast. Loo counsels Southeast Asian navies to simply wait out a Chinese Navy that lacks a robust logistics fleet. But if PLA forces can use land-based weaponry to sink ships in port or cruising the South China Sea, then this amounts to a strategy of defeat and destruction.
But sea power is anyway about more than the fleet. Even if the PLA Navy proves unable to mount a continuous presence in the South China Sea—an assumption growing more doubtful by the day—systems able to influence events at sea from the land provide continuous virtual presence throughout the spectrum of conflict, from peacetime to wartime. This versatility explains the emphasis Chinese strategists now place on extended-range shore-based weaponry.
Next, Loo claims that navies typically follow a three-phase tactical training and deployment cycle. This means one-third of the fleet is deployed at any given time, another third is refitting and unavailable for sea service and the remaining third is working up for deployment. From this Loo concludes that estimates of Chinese naval power wildly overstate the numbers of ships and aircraft available to Beijing at any given time.
There are two problems with this. For one, the 3:1 ratio isn't an iron law of naval operations but a rule of thumb derived from standard US Navy practice. But the US Navy, today's only global navy, is encumbered with commitments far more demanding than those confronting any regional fleet. As a result, American warships incur far greater wear-and-tear in the course of their duties. That requires frequent shipyard periods to refit.
Navies like China's that mostly operate close to home can expect to have a bigger proportion of their fleet available at any particular moment. The maintenance burden is smaller and the time spent in port greater, allowing for generous overhaul time and crew rest.
For another, even if the 3:1 rule did apply to all navies, far more than one-third of the fleet can be combat-ready at any moment. In 2004 the US Navy simultaneously deployed seven of its eleven aircraft-carrier strike groups for 'Operation Summer Pulse,' a massive exercise spanning five theaters across the globe. If the US fleet can overcome the rigors of extended deployments and upkeep, a Chinese Navy with more modest missions could probably do so as well.
Bottom line: Prof. Loo takes maritime specialists to task for exaggerating PLAN force totals by a factor of three, but he understates available PLA Navy combat strength by half.
Moreover, Loo seems to think the US Pacific Fleet can easily mass overwhelming strength in the South China Sea to beat back a Chinese naval offensive. At first glance this appears reasonable. The navy recently finished realigning its force posture, concentrating some 60 percent of its assets in the Pacific. But at 287 vessels, the US Navy is now smaller in raw numbers than before World War I, and it is dispersed across the globe discharging countless missions.
This declining fleet must contend with a PLA Navy that has spent the last 15 years devising capabilities—of which the ASBM represents only one—aimed at exploiting US weaknesses in antisubmarine warfare, mine countermeasures and other niche areas. The result? Chinese mariners can now impose steep costs on the US Pacific Fleet, contesting its ability even to reach a theater of combat like the South China Sea—much less to wage war effectively once there.
True, the PLA Navy exhibits weaknesses of its own such as at-sea refueling and rearming. It therefore behooves South-east Asian governments to start exploiting such vulnerabilities. Heaving a sigh of relief at China's supposed maritime weakness represents precisely the wrong approach. Government policymakers should beware of academics who purport to speak with authority on tactical and technical matters—drawing conclusions their experience and expertise does not support.
James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara are associate professors of strategy at the US Naval War College and co-authors of Red Star over the Pacific: China's Rise and the Challenge to US Maritime Strategy. The views voiced here are theirs alone.
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"Men Wanted: for Hazardous Journey. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in case of success.” -Sir Ernest Shackleton
“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” –Greek proverb
I'll get concerned when they actually deploy some carrier battlegroups.
Or maybe after they send one of ours to the bottom. The Chinese are building a capability directed specifically at establishing regional naval superiority and destroying US carrier battle groups. Our capabilities are greater, but directed at a much broader set of objectives. That leaves an asymmetric gap that they can exploit for a much smaller investment.
Lack of ability to project power globally should not be confused with the inability to hurt us in a regional conflict.
I don't think the American people have the will anymore to fight and win a protracted naval campaign in the Far East.
The Chinese have their own agenda and will use the full range of their DIME capabilities to support their strategic goals and objectives.
We have a far superior force, but do not always use it properly.
TR
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"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
The Chinese should be pleased with their current position in the world which is a result of trade with the west. They should do whatever insures that this relationship continues. War would only result in their self destruction.
War now would be pointless, but what will it look like in 100-200 years? The Chinese have a few thousand years of uninterrrupted history and think along generational time lines. They are in the first stage of Empire building, buying/stealing everything they can. After 50-75 years of this they may turn to small regional skirmishes and military bluffs against small fry countries to achieve their goals. Once they have established their hegemony they will have an opportunity to fully exercise their military might, or not.
I think the only thing that could stop this Juggernaut is internal collapse, a very real possibility in my mind.
Historically I agree with you, however, I believe they have seen the light and understand that they must control vast stretches of resource and market rich areas. You have only to look at Africa & South America to see what they desire.
I also believe that the current regime could stave off any domestic unrest by focusing on foreign aggression. Who's going to stop them? Maybe Putin, certainly not us or the europeans.
1st photo caption:
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi (L) and Mexican Secretary of Foreign Affairs Patricia Espinoza speak during the closing of the IV Permanent Binational Commission Mexico-China on July 30, 2010 in Mexico City. Mexico sought to strengthen ties with China during a visit by Yang. Some 150 government workers from both countries took part in the latest talks, including customs and health officials for the first time. China is Mexico's second largest trading partner after the United States.
2nd photo caption:
Troops from People's Republic of China armed forces participate in Mexico's traditional Independence Day military parade as part of the bicentennial of the independence celebrations in Mexico City's main Zocalo plaza Thursday Sept. 16, 2010.
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“This kind of war, however necessary, is dirty business, first to last.” —T.R. Fehrenbach
“We can trust our doctors to be professional, to minister equally to their patients without regard to their political or religious beliefs. But we can no longer trust our professors to do the same." --David Horowitz
1st photo caption:
Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi (L) and Mexican Secretary of Foreign Affairs Patricia Espinoza speak during the closing of the IV Permanent Binational Commission Mexico-China on July 30, 2010 in Mexico City. Mexico sought to strengthen ties with China during a visit by Yang. Some 150 government workers from both countries took part in the latest talks, including customs and health officials for the first time. China is Mexico's second largest trading partner after the United States.
2nd photo caption:
Troops from People's Republic of China armed forces participate in Mexico's traditional Independence Day military parade as part of the bicentennial of the independence celebrations in Mexico City's main Zocalo plaza Thursday Sept. 16, 2010.
It requires a navy for them to transport their troops to preposition themselves for any military operation that would be directed against our interests anywhere other than Asia. They lack power projection outside their own immediate territory.
The challenges for the Chinese leadership remains balancing their lack of arable land relative to their population vs the regime ending outcome of income gap resulting from western trade. Their pattern repeats through their history. Barring another Mongol Horde, the geography of the Urals and Himalayas would make significant land warfare between China and Russia or India very difficult. They can't really get at each other
Since their economy is based on importing natural resources and exporting cheap goods, a naval blockade by the US or Japan would be terminal for this regime. So a powerful regional navy is in their best interests.
My concern is for our sailors first learning the age of the carrier has passed when they are being hit by Mach 10 anti shipping missiles responding to a regional conflict.
Though come to think of it I have noticed a few more Hispanic looking dudes hanging out at the neighborhood Dim Sum joint...
__________________
"Men Wanted: for Hazardous Journey. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in case of success.” -Sir Ernest Shackleton
“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” –Greek proverb
__________________ I believe that SF is a 'calling' - not too different from the calling missionaries I know received. I knew instantly that it was for me, and that I would do all I could to achieve it. Most others I know in SF experienced something similar. If, as you say, you HAVE searched and read, and you do not KNOW if this is the path for you --- it is not.... Zonie Diver
SF is a calling and it requires commitment and dedication that the uninitiated will never understand...... Jack Moroney
That brings to mind the "flying monkey" scene in "The Wizard of Oz"! This time the sky will be filled with Flying Chinese Paratroopers - not monkeys. (That part of the movie scared the bejeebers out of me as a kid.)
I used to say I'd worry about the Chinese when I heard they were making a couple million sets of waterwings. Maybe I should start worrying now...
__________________ "I took a different route from most and came into Special Forces..." - Col. Nick Rowe
The article states the Germans have had such a capability since 03. I'll be scared of China when they actually have a fully modernized armed forces. Most of their equipment is reengineered Russian junk.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Germans?
This would explain the FeldGrau...
__________________
"Men Wanted: for Hazardous Journey. Small wages, bitter cold, long months of complete darkness, constant danger, safe return doubtful. Honour and recognition in case of success.” -Sir Ernest Shackleton
“A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.” –Greek proverb
The challenges for the Chinese leadership remains balancing their lack of arable land relative to their population vs the regime ending outcome of income gap resulting from western trade. Their pattern repeats through their history. Barring another Mongol Horde, the geography of the Urals and Himalayas would make significant land warfare between China and Russia or India very difficult. They can't really get at each other
You haven't really studied the Sino-Soviet conflicts in the far east over the years or the geography of the region, have you?
TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
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