Job recovery - a decade or more?

[nmap]

From the Brookings Institute comes an analysis of how long it will take to recover from the job losses experienced in the current recession. At the current rate, it will take about 136 months. If a much more optimistic scenario is assumed, it will still take 57 months.

In my opinion, this suggests that housing, the overall economy, and the stock market are unlikely to recover quickly.

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Complete article at LINK

Excerpt:

The "job gap" underlying these numbers is daunting. In recent months, on this blog, we described the job gap -- the number of jobs it would take to return to employment levels from before the Great Recession, while also accounting for the 125,000 people who enter the labor force in a typical month. After today's employment numbers, the job gap stands at almost 11.3 million jobs.

How long will it take to erase this gap? If future job growth continues at a rate of roughly 208,000 jobs per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year for job creation in the 2000s, it would take 136 months (more than 11 years). In a more optimistic scenario, with 321,000 jobs created per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year in the 1990s, it would take over 57 months (almost 5 years).

[jw74]

Thanks. After a year and a half of looking for a long term job, you sure know how to kick a guy in the sack.

[nmap]

Better to know, jw74, at least IMO. Best of luck in your search.

[Surf n Turf]

Originally Posted by nmap

From the Brookings Institute comes an analysis of how long it will take to recover from the job losses experienced in the current recession.

In my opinion, this suggests that housing, the overall economy, and the stock market are unlikely to recover quickly.

Nmap,
What is the old saw about liars, damn liars, and statistics ---
Thus far this year, (June) the economy has added 882,000 jobs, with 593,000 coming from the private sector.
If we count ONLY Private Sector Jobs*, we are currently creating 98,833 jobs per month. (593K/6)
Thus if
“125,000 people who enter the labor force in a typical month.”, and we are only creating 98,833 we are growing the job base at a negative 21,167 per month (-254,004 per annum)
and if
The unemployment rate is 9.5%, (representing 11,3 million jobs), The TOTAL number of the workforce should then be 118,947,368.
It follows then that Øbama’s negative job growth rate would have the Private Sector at ZERO (0) employment in 468.2 years.
SnT

*Private Sector job taxes fund the Public Sector

[6.8SPC_DUMP]

Monster, Indeed, Careerbuilder, Dice, Craigslist, LinkedIn, Jigsaw, Hound and Jobcentral dotcoms' have decent reputations. Best of luck jw.

[craigepo]

Originally Posted by Surf n Turf

Nmap,
What is the old saw about liars, damn liars, and statistics ---

SnT

*Private Sector job taxes fund the Public Sector

I wonder how many of those jobs were census workers, whose jobs are now almost complete. Not to make it worse or anything.

[GratefulCitizen]

There are jobs, just not the jobs people want.
It may take two or three unpleasant/temporary/seasonal jobs to support the lifestyle which used to be attainable from one "nice" job.

Was on vacation in western Colorado last week.
The peach farmers there hire plenty of people over the summer.

One particular farmer had 18 applicants and hired them all.
He would've hired more if more people had applied.

The new hands were quite happy with the work and wages, until the weather turned hot.
When gut check time came, all 18 quit.

In over a half century of running his farm, he has never had anything like this happen.
Never.


There is a big gap between expectations and reality in this economy.
Many of those old jobs are never coming back.

The current unemployment is primarily structural, not cyclical.
The skill sets/acceptance wages of potential employees have to meet the needs of potential employers.


Keep pushing, jw74.
Persistence is the one thing over which you have absolute control.

[jw74]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

There are jobs, just not the jobs people want.
It may take two or three unpleasant/temporary/seasonal jobs to support the lifestyle which used to be attainable from one "nice" job.

Was on vacation in western Colorado last week.
The peach farmers there hire plenty of people over the summer.

One particular farmer had 18 applicants and hired them all.
He would've hired more if more people had applied.

The new hands were quite happy with the work and wages, until the weather turned hot.
When gut check time came, all 18 quit.

In over a half century of running his farm, he has never had anything like this happen.
Never.


There is a big gap between expectations and reality in this economy.
Many of those old jobs are never coming back.

The current unemployment is primarily structural, not cyclical.
The skill sets/acceptance wages of potential employees have to meet the needs of potential employers.


Keep pushing, jw74.
Persistence is the one thing over which you have absolute control.

I appreciate it and what you said about expectations is very true. In the past year I've been a substitute teacher, a house painter, a waiter, a bouncer, and now a bartender. Whenever something steadier than what you have comes up you have to be ready to say "of course I can do that."
I hesitate to say this in the company of this board, but persistence is my strong suit. Thanks again to all.

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by jw74

I appreciate it and what you said about expectations is very true. In the past year I've been a substitute teacher, a house painter, a waiter, a bouncer, and now a bartender. Whenever something steadier than what you have comes up you have to be ready to say "of course I can do that."
I hesitate to say this in the company of this board, but persistence is my strong suit. Thanks again to all.

Also worked as a school teacher and as a bouncer (among many other jobs...) prior to getting my foot in the door at UPS.

Had to pick up a second job to make it work here.
Put in back-to-back 3100 hour work-years in 2003-2004 between the jobs.

Success is a choice.
You don't always get to choose the particular path or the timing, but you can choose to drive on until you find it.

You have chosen.
You will succeed.

[Penn]

The jobs are never coming back. A present (like once a week) client, Canadian by birth, related the following to me: “Verbatim”.
“I was a partner in many brand names of discount entertainment models, Radio Shack, Best buy, etc. I got out.
“Now that I have formed my own company based in China, not only have we lowered our cost per unit of production, but our QC, quality control, has gone through the roof. The American politician is the one to hold accountable, and not us for your demise”.

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by Penn

The jobs are never coming back. A present (like once a week) client, Canadian by birth, related the following to me: “Verbatim”.
“I was a partner in many brand names of discount entertainment models, Radio Shack, Best buy, etc. I got out.
“Now that I have formed my own company based in China, not only have we lowered our cost per unit of production, but our QC, quality control, has gone through the roof. The American politician is the one to hold accountable, and not us for your demise”.

Respectfully disagree that the American politician is responsible for the core issue.
They do exacerbate the problem through corporate tax rates.

Manufacturing moving overseas was inevitable.
Had an econ professor who detailed and predicted this back in the early 90's.
He knows is stuff.
http://econbus.mines.edu/Roderick-Eggert


Our economy does benefit some from the exchange.
Califia Beach Pundit points this out:
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/201...alive-and.html

[Penn]

No doubt your source is correct, but that’s not what I was relating with regard to this post, to be blunt.
(% are fictional)

Mr. Egan, can manufacture his components at a 30% COS per/unit in China vs a 65% COS per/unit in the US. Not to mention that the QC is through the roof.

Forget where your national allegiance are; why should he manufacture his product in North America, if his responsibilities are to his partners and shareholders?

The politician is guilty, because they did not offset the imbalance in trade with regard to wages and corporate earnings, they did this, by not demanding an equitable and adjustable monetary exchange rate base on their Yuan.

But, for the sake of argument let’s say they had, and further that all things were equal.

China would still overcome the economic challenge by producing product with superior customer satisfaction.

The American unionized work force is no longer competitive, and if I might add, culpable, for its own demise.

[The Reaper]

How do the Germans anfd Japanese remain manufacturing nations?

TR

[GratefulCitizen]

In a sense, the USA is a victim of its own success.

For 40 years, the amount of stuff made in the USA has increased dramatically.
There are downturns with economic cycles, but the overall trend is significant increase.
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/...ate&JavaBox=no
http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/...ate&JavaBox=no

The number of manufacturing jobs was stable for a little over 30 years, despite a massive increase in the labor force.
http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servlet/SurveyOutputServlet **

The number manufacturing jobs has been stable or decreasing (on average).
The amount of stuff produced has been steadily increasing (on average).

More stuff made from the same or fewer people.
That is just productivity and innovation in action.

That productivity and innovation is why 4.5% of the world's population produce 25% of the world's goods and services and hold 40% of the world's wealth.
The price of that prosperity is inequity of outcomes among our citizens.

We don't have manufacturing jobs here because they aren't needed.
Robots do much of the work now.


The economic dominoes will fall in China, and more manufacturing will eventually be needed from this nation.
This will not, however, lead to significant increases in manufacturing employment.

We'll just have robots making the robots which make stuff.

The structural change to the domestic economy (and soon the world) is permanent.
People need to acquire the skills desired by employers if they want jobs.

Not saying how it should be.
Just saying how it will be.

**
The bls website isn't being nice.

Go here: http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag06.htm
Scroll down to the "Employment, all employees" row and hit the "back data" dinosaur icon.

The "from - to" range can be selected with the tool at the top of the applet.

[jw74]

Another point to consider is that a side effect of a weak dollar makes it more cost efficient to manufacture in the US.