Declining Natural Food Supply

[Penn]

This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.


http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/Pre.../PROD01_008806

U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010

Originally Posted by Penn

This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.


http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/Pre.../PROD01_008806

U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010

I've heard predictions of doom regarding population explosion and food scarcity since I was in high school over 40 years ago.

Somehow, us wiley humans seem to figure out a way to be more productive sans government induced famines of which there are a plethora of examples. Russia comes to mind.

[Pete]

As long as we're buring corn I'm not too worried about us.

Most of the places suffering from starvation could feed themselves if..........

[afchic]

Originally Posted by Pete

As long as we're buring corn I'm not too worried about us.

Most of the places suffering from starvation could feed themselves if..........

Don't forget as long as we are paying farmers NOT to grow food....

[abc_123]

Originally Posted by HowardCohodas

I've heard predictions of doom regarding population explosion and food scarcity since I was in high school over 40 years ago.

Somehow, us wiley humans seem to figure out a way to be more productive sans government induced famines of which there are a plethora of examples. Russia comes to mind.

Sure, and if we really got into a bind we could always manufacture some green stuff to eat ...

I think I saw that in a movie once.

[Dad]

Originally Posted by Penn

This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.


http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/Pre.../PROD01_008806

U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010

Every thing I have read leads me to have real concern for the oceans fisheries as well. Even primitive peoples understood the concept of not over hunting and fishing. We are far from maxed out on grain crop production. Distribution is the problem.

[Penn]

I am not concerned of mans ability to produce grain; I think this will have a cascading effect on other fisheries.

Years ago in the late 70's my brother and I would have fisherman come to our door with 35-60# stripers, native strip bass, a prize in this region...they were abundant along the northeast coast, but I haven’t seen one of that weight in over two decades. In fact this is a size limit for keepers; 27", but they are still juvenile fish, maybe 2 years old. The species may never recover.

So, for the sake of argument, what happen to the Irish in the 19th century?
The forced famine they experienced resulted in the complete decline of the Entire shellfish population around the island. They destroyed the whole of the fisheries because that severed the food chain.

Salmon are a basic element and predator in the oceanic chain.

[Utah Bob]

Originally Posted by abc_123

Sure, and if we really got into a bind we could always manufacture some green stuff to eat ...

I think I saw that in a movie once.

I'll have some with not so much turban in it thanks.

[lksteve]

Originally Posted by Penn

This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.

Malthus was right, I guess...

[jatx]

Take a look...many of the fish currently marketed heavily in your corner grocery store were not so popular 20 years ago. I.e., orange roughy, rockfish, sea bass, etc. The technology and scale of commercial fisheries today is staggering - fishing fleets now have the ability to "clear cut" the ocean in places, and that is exactly what they are doing to satisfy demand.

Not so big a deal when you are talking about an easily renewable resource, but some of the fish we enjoy today have reproductive cycles measured in decades.

I am doing my part by purchasing only farm-raised fish.

[dr. mabuse]

*

[Scimitar]

Manufactured alright!

On my second day in the US, I saw 2 for 1 Twinkies at the gas station. I got a little excited as I had never tasted these little treats so often talked about in the movies and such.

I bought two while explaining this to the teller, who l now realize was looking at me like "Where the hell are you from".

Shortly afterwards I am driving along tearing into the child proof packaging and quickly stuffed one in my mouth. It took my body half a second to tell me that what I had just started masticating was not actually food and that I should expel it forth with. Unfortunately this was my first experience at driving on the wrong side of the road and so out of reaction instead of spitting it out the window I spat it into the passenger seat. I guess it's an acquired taste.

The joys of being the frekin foreign guy.

But I digress...yeah the food thing...it scares the hell out of me...I love seafood!

S

[Defender968]

Originally Posted by Penn

This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.


http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/Pre.../PROD01_008806

U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010

Penn I hope I can help calm some of your fears. While I share some of your concern over the number of people on earth this particular issue does not scare me too much and here's why. My wife is a marine biologist and her field within marine biology is sustainability and the management of fisheries. I read the article and then had her read it because. Her take is this,

First within the article, this stood out to her,

Although the reasons for the decline of Chinook salmon are not completely understood, scientists believe they are predominately natural. Changes in ocean and river conditions, including unfavorable shifts in temperatures and food sources, likely caused poor survival of Chinook salmon.

The reason this is important is that there are peaks and troughs in fish populations that are normal within the natural world, it just happens, the key to it is what we do once we recognize we're experiencing a bad year/years. Now that ties into her second point.

Her second point is that Alaska has the best managed fisheries in the entire world, the fact that they have closed the fishery shows that they are aware of the problem and are doing what is necessary to preserve the fishery and help it to recover.

There are big issues with fisheries today around the world, especially in Asia where they are over fishing and it is possible they will do irreparable damage to the fisheries, but here in the US we have good fishery management and regulations that actually work. Sword fish, striped bass, and scallops are all good examples of once depleted populations that through strong effective fisheries management regulation have brought back up to healthily levels. Now that is not to say that there are not fisheries here in the US as well as globally that are in trouble, but this particular issue/crisis mainly effects those subsistence fishermen in Alaska, and it's not something that is going to have a cascading effect, it will have other effects on the local economy and the local ecosystem, specifically bears in the area may struggle due to the lower numbers of salmon available to them, but overall the only real large scale issue this will present is possibly influencing the price of salmon higher.

Hope this helps.

[Defender968]

Originally Posted by jatx

Take a look...many of the fish currently marketed heavily in your corner grocery store were not so popular 20 years ago. I.e., orange roughy, rockfish, sea bass, etc. The technology and scale of commercial fisheries today is staggering - fishing fleets now have the ability to "clear cut" the ocean in places, and that is exactly what they are doing to satisfy demand.

Not so big a deal when you are talking about an easily renewable resource, but some of the fish we enjoy today have reproductive cycles measured in decades.

I am doing my part by purchasing only farm-raised fish.

Good to hear Jatx, but be careful on the farm-raised fish, depending on where it's farmed it may or may not be particularly sustainable, specifically nearly all fish farmed in Asia has very negative environmental effects due to the way they farm there, specifically the waste that is produced and the ecosystems that are destroyed to build fish farms, they are doing some pretty bad damage to their local waters via fish farming in much of Asia which in turn hurts the local wild fish populations.

If it's farmed here in the US you have a pretty good chance that's it's going to be sustainable.

Currently there is a tremendous demand for fish and cheep fish at that, both here in the US and in Asia especially, which is leading to substantial pressure on fish populations, if you can buy local, if you can't buy local i.e. too far from the coast try to buy US caught, as I said before we have some of the best managed fisheries in the world.

Also if anyone needs more info on specific species of fish to know if it's sustainable please feel free to shoot me a message, a part of my wife's job is to help educate the public and if this is another venue to do that I'm happy to help.

Just FYI one species Jatx mentioned that I can guarantee is not sustainable is Orange Rughy, not only because of the demand for it but more importantly because it takes 20-30 years to reach sexual maturity and are caught with trawl nets in deep water which means they are clear cut and since they are deep water fish anything that is brought up likely won't survive even if it's to small to keep and thrown back overboard.

[nmap]

Chef Penn brings up a good point. Once upon a time, many fish were easily available - a current example being the Chilean Sea Bass. Rather expensive now, isn't it? That's due to massive over-fishing. About 45 years ago, one could get TV dinners with Icelandic Cod and Haddock. Try one of them now. Then again...maybe you shouldn't.

The overall problem is discussed in Catton's book titled Overshoot. We simply have too many people to feed in the long term. The global fisheries are just one example.

While it is tempting to look at grain production and dismiss food shortages, one might wish to examine what this abundance requires. Among other things, we need potash, nitrogen fertilizers, and, often, irrigation. Potash is mined, and is finite. Nitrogen fertilizers, such as ammonium nitrate, require energy to produce. Global aquifers are in decline. If I may digress, there is an interesting correlation between water supplies and global flash-points, with Kashmir coming to mind as a case in point.

We tend to believe that the world we live in is a constant. It has always been the way we experience it now, and therefore it cannot change. But if we look at some of the realities underlying our present abundance, our outlook might be less sanguine. The world has experienced famine often in the past. Are we now exempt? Is our technology so robust that it will never fail us?

Sure. It's all good. Technology never breaks.