Understanding the future - maybe?

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We face a lot of interesting changes these days - the health care debate is one example among many. My personal perception is that life is getting more complex; others I talk with seem to share that view. This seems to suggest a question - "Can we look at human nature and current trends, and perhaps get some idea of what's coming and why?"

The article linked below is a bit long, and it takes some reflection to understand some of the implications. Dr. Tainter is a well-recognized scholar at Princeton, and wrote the "Collapse of Complex Societies" book some years ago.

LINK to article

I'll make an attempt at a short summary. In essence, all societies add complexity - organizations and rules, for example - to deal with problems. So we might add a new agency at the federal level to handle some set of challenges. The new agency has costs (money, people, resources), and it imposes more rules (another cost). All of this is normal.

Sometimes, new resources come up to offset the costs - but not always. The article discusses Rome, and how the empire's efforts to survive consumed much of their resource base - ultimately leading to their fall.

Are there parallels in our own time? Perhaps! The health care debate urges the addition of complexity to solve a problem. (There are arguments over whether this is a real problem or not - for now, let's suppose it is a valid problem). This will not reduce costs - the added complexity must increase them. Of course, health care is only the most apparent and current issue - others exist. FEMA is an example. The various occupational specializations add complexity, and hence cost. (Which is not to say they aren't worth it - they were, after all, created to solve problems.)

My take on the article is that we are likely to see larger organizations, additional organizations, and a more restrictive, controlled environment. In addition, the costs (taxes) for these structures will tend to increase. This will be especially true if we face shortages (oil, perhaps?), since they will represent further problems.

Anyway, if you have the time and inclination to read it, it might constitute food for thought.