Seems like he was saying that the tools were being misused, and then eventually were warped outright to justify wishful thinking (who doesn't want a money tree?).
Estimating future risk is a difficult science, but it is one which is well developed and, when used properly, is an invaluable tool.
I stand by my original assessment:
http://www.professionalsoldiers.com/...38&postcount=4
Constraints have to be put in place or the estimations become impossible.
The insurance industry is strictly regulated for a reason.
This guy nails it:
http://www.ianwelsh.net/how-to-refor...default-swaps/