Dubai - Real Estate Bubble

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I came across a piece in the India times, followed by pictures that suggest the scope of construction in Dubai. It seems excessive.

As I understand it, the population in the Middle East is large and young. Now if Dubai and some of the other emirates encounter hard times, it seems possible that regional social unrest and increased instability might occur. In addition, radical maddrassas might attract newly poor people, thus increasing radicalism in the region. I would suspect this would affect some of the surrounding states, such as Jordan, more than the population of the emirates themselves.

Is that a reasonable scenario? Are there better scenarios? Within the constraints of OPSEC, any thoughts would be appreciated.

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Dubai real estate suffers as distressed sales rise
23 Nov 2008, 0943 hrs IST, REUTERS

DUBAI: Dubai's property sector suffered a series of blows this week after brokers confirmed a rise in distressed sales, a real estate guide
downgraded its rating on residential property and an Islamic lender suspended new loans.

The once-booming real estate sector of the emirate is showing signs of collapsing due to the global credit crisis, as prices fall sharply and buyers struggle to get mortgage loans.

"There is a sizeable increase in the number of property owners in an urgent state to sell," Robert Macnair, sales director of Dubai-based Elysian Real Estate, told Reuters on Thursday.

"It could be they have a large payment coming up or they've seen the market dropping over the last month ... there is a real sense of urgency."

Property prices on Dubai's Palm Jumeirah island, a man-made peninsula developed by government-owned Nakheel, have fallen as much as 40 percent since September, real estate brokers said on Thursday.

Elysian this week sent out a text message to up to 40,000 mobile phones advertising distressed property sales offering a luxury six bedroom, six bathroom villa in Dubailand, a multi-billion-dollar luxury theme park.

The villa advertised costs 21 million UAE dirhams ($5.72 million) - half its original price - and will be completed in 2009, the text read.

Dubai downgrade

Global Property Guide cut its long-term investment rating on Dubai residential property on Wednesday from neutral to negative due to the drop in gross rental yields from last year.

"Gross yields are now an average of 5.5 percent, significantly down from an average of 7.5 percent a year ago ... At these levels, Dubai is less attractive than it was previously as an investment property," it said in a research note.

Global Property Guide said Dubai has "an enormous" amount of new supply and expects prices to fall over the next 2-3 years.

To compound matters, Dubai Islamic mortgage lender Amlak AMLK.DU said on Wednesday it suspended new loans. This follows moves by several banks to tighten lending conditions in August and September.

"It is very hard to get loans now. Customers are suffering," Rehab Gouda, senior sales agent at Al Jabal Real Estate told Reuters.

"Either they have pre-approval from before the crisis, or they are cash buyers."


LINK

And some pictures that provide a visual dimension to the issues:

LINK

(There is one unfortunate word at the link, toward the bottom. Sorry.)

[NoRoadtrippin]

I recently saw an extended television spot on Dubai and this very situation. Something to the effect of 60 Minutes or Nightline. I'll see if I can track down some clips.

If i recall correctly, the Palm Island was completely sold out but yet not a single person had moved in. It was all speculation. Yet the firms in Dubai just kept on building and building. It did seem from the show that they were risking becoming very, very overextended. I'm sure the current global economy is not doing them any good.

[NoRoadtrippin]

Well, that wasn't too hard to find at all. Here's the link, it includes the video although I don't know if it is the whole spot.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/...n3361753.shtml

It is pretty amazing/interesting.

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Kuwait's government resigns...and part of the problem is financial distress in the stock market.

Let us suppose we have about 6 more years of lackluster global economic performance. What happens?

(By the way - we had a 25 year bull market in the U.S. A bear market that lasted a total of 8 - 12 years would be entirely normal.)

Excerpt:

“It’s becoming ridiculous – it’s only six months since we had an election. If the same prime minister comes back we are just back to square one,” said a former minister.

The turmoil has cast doubt on a government-led plan to prop up the stock market. Local investors, mostly from the large middle class of government employees, have lost money in the bourse’s recent fall, leading to demonstrations against the government and temporary closure of the exchange.

The Kuwait Investment Authority, the sovereign wealth fund, was last week instructed by the government to buy up to 10 per cent of local equities to support prices and confidence. It is likely to proceed with the plan regardless of the political situation, but analysts said the turmoil was dangerous given the global financial crisis.

“The Kuwait stock exchange has been bleeding for months and the country is beset with a feeling of malaise and stagnation,” said Abdullah al-Shayji, a political scientist at Kuwait University. “The government has struggled for several years now and this is the shortest-lived cabinet in our history.”


LINK

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Dubai may need to get a bailout from Abu Dhabi.

Let's see...the area has a young population. What happens if the economy crashes? Do the Madrasas get lots of new students?

LINK