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Old 11-09-2008, 07:24   #1
Richard
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Forget JFK, Obama could be the next Jimmy Carter

Pretty accurate analysis.

Richard's $.02


Forget JFK, Obama could be the next Jimmy Carter
Adrian Michaels, Group Foreign Editor

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...my-Carter.html

To be as responsible as he has promised, he has to change the behaviour of consumers, of government and of regulators that has led America into a period of declining growth and employment.

If he is successful, he could create so much resentment that he will be booted out of the White House after just one term. Obama's supporters may imagine their man to be the next Roosevelt or Kennedy. But instead of BHO to follow FDR and JFK, he could end up being the next Jimmy Carter.

Fixing the economy pitches Obama into two big battles. The first will be with many of the Americans who have just voted for him. They have responded to a promise of "change you can believe in" - and they had better start believing that they have to accept falling house prices and a pervasive feeling of being less wealthy.

The Democratic-controlled Congress is Obama's second battle. If the economy starts to grow again, then Democratic politicians had better believe that spending must be cut heavily and that they will not be able to fulfil campaign promises.

It is hard to imagine that a new president with a thumping majority in the electoral college will start to lower expectations quickly. But Obama must. American consumers had only one of the starring roles in the financial and economic crisis, but it was important.

Goaded by cheap credit they spent more of their income. They took out ludicrously unsafe mortages and ran up big balances on their credit cards. Their overborrowing was mirrored by private equity groups that overpaid for businesses. Such deals encouraged shares to go up as investors foresaw being bought out at crazy rates. Higher share values made people feel wealthier: it must be time for another cruise, or car.

Now all that credit has been withdrawn, house prices must continue to fall until people who are not taking unsustainable risks can afford to pay them. People are starting already to spend less. Their reduced economic activity will drive down asset prices.

Obama must tell Americans that this is necessary. A painful recession is inevitable. He can promise help from the government with targeted spending of its own until the economy picks up.

There isn't much money around, but interest rates are low and the government can probably afford to borrow and increase its projected $1 trillion deficit for now. It is interesting to reflect that it was consumers attracted by cheap money that helped to create the crisis. Paradoxically it is the availability of cheap money that could show the way out.

Congress will pass an economic stimulus package and attempt to arrest price falls, or else deflation would last too long and sap the morale of a generation. Infrastructure plans and other projects could fill the gap in demand and reduce unemployment.

And if all that goes according to plan, then Obama somehow has to stop a rampant Congress from believing that a more bloated and invasive government was more than a temporary measure to combat a deep recession. Governments believe that increasing spending in a downturn is probably a good measure, but they find it impossible to cut expenditure when an economy recovers.

Cutbacks will be hard because the Democrats controlling Congress want to spend on far more than anti-recession measures. President-Elect Obama has huge spending plans, and has not told us how they have been affected by the economic crisis.

Decreased government spending in an upturn is a necessity because private enterprise generally knows better what to do with money than government. Businesses and individuals need to be encouraged to invest in projects of their own, when they can, rather than in government bonds.

But will Obama be able to face down a runaway Congress? The House and Senate may pass spending bills, but they can be vetoed by the president. Too many vetoes and the president looks out of touch - after all, Congressmen and women were elected too.

I found this online, from Time magazine in June 1977: "Determined to balance the budget by the end of his first term, Carter, the fiscal conservative, is clipping away at congressional spending. The more liberal Congress is on the verge of passing three bills that could exceed his spending plans...the White House seems to be virtually itching to veto the [plans] ... when [they reach] ... Carter's desk."

And so the seeds of Democratic civil war and electoral disaster were sown.

In the battles to come, with his people and then his party, Obama will have numerous opportunities to mess up. If an economic stimulus is spent on tax cuts that simply encourage more consumer spending then all will be lost. He must also play a leading role in framing a new architecture for the world economy. Badly-drawn regulations will create more problems than they solve.

The President-Elect's team must agree on goals and a plan. Its members did that well in the campaign. They need to keep their discipline in the years ahead. An elixir called brandy will come in useful.
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Old 11-09-2008, 08:15   #2
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As I've said before.......Obama will make Jimmy Carter look like a Ronald Reagan!!!!
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Old 11-09-2008, 11:08   #3
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Jimmy is going to move down the list and BHO will top it for the worst CIC. I can only hope he proves us all wrong.
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Old 11-09-2008, 11:48   #4
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Well...it's going to be kind of hard to top giving up the Canal Zone and giving Flint Kaserne back to the Germans so we then had to pay rent, but we'll see, won't we.

Richard's $.02
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Old 11-09-2008, 12:08   #5
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We had to go through Carter to get Reagan.

We had to go through Clinton to get Bush.

That next Republican President is gonna be awesome if the indicators are correct.
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Old 11-09-2008, 12:22   #6
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Bottom line is, the American public got the country in to this mess by being financially irresponsible & by being greedy. The public places the blame on the usual scape goats of big business and the oil industry instead to taking responsibility for its' own part. Now the public wants someone else to fix the problem. Thing is, no single person can fix a problem that is endemic. I wish BHO the best of luck because our nation's future depends on it but I think he is like the Wizard, all smoke & mirrors. I was a kid during the Carter years & I remember it sucked for everyone. I served under Clinton & it sucked for the military. Does anyone else see the pattern?

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Old 11-09-2008, 17:15   #7
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Originally Posted by Ambush Master View Post
As I've said before.......Obama will make Jimmy Carter look like a Ronald Reagan!!!!

Yup!!


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Old 11-09-2008, 17:38   #8
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Well...it's going to be kind of hard to top giving up the Canal Zone and giving Flint Kaserne back to the Germans so we then had to pay rent, but we'll see, won't we.

Richard's $.02
He may start with giving Puerto Rico back to who ever wants it...... Hummm Who had it last????? He might start giving back states to the Indians???

Oh I know he will start letting Sharia Law over Rule us Law.....
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Old 11-09-2008, 18:24   #9
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For more about the economic issues, I've attached a PDF of John Mauldin's latest.

In essence, everyone from the individual consumer to the federal government is awash in debt. Growth was enhanced by mortgage home equity loans - that factor will no longer exist. Credit card spending is also being reined in, by the banks if not by consumers.

I will fix my hope on Optactical's theory.
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Old 11-09-2008, 19:49   #10
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For more about the economic issues, I've attached a PDF of John Mauldin's latest.

In essence, everyone from the individual consumer to the federal government is awash in debt. Growth was enhanced by mortgage home equity loans - that factor will no longer exist. Credit card spending is also being reined in, by the banks if not by consumers.

I will fix my hope on Optactical's theory.
You are right too many people and the Gov are awash in Debt. My son just hit me up to bail him out again. Guess he thinks that the 3rd time is a charm. 3 years before I retired I decided to pay everything off and I really tightened my belt and spent every cent to clear the slate. It hurt but when I retired I had 0 debt..... Really 0 debt. I have stayed that way since then and you would not believe how much you can save after getting to 0 Debt.

I think the major problem of most Americans is that they are not willing to tighten the belt and do what is needed.

Some might say I am un American but I enjoy paying cash. My 2 Credit cards are 0 each end of the month if I used them.
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Old 11-09-2008, 20:42   #11
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He may start with giving Puerto Rico back to who ever wants it...... Hummm Who had it last????? He might start giving back states to the Indians???

Spain had it before us, and I would have no problems letting them go to whoever would take them, if someone would.

The current situation in PR is a socialist system funded largely by the US taxpayers.

There is little love (or respect) there for the US, unless they need something.

TR
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Old 11-09-2008, 21:51   #12
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Spain had it before us, and I would have no problems letting them go to whoever would take them, if someone would.

The current situation in PR is a socialist system funded largely by the US taxpayers.

There is little love (or respect) there for the US, unless they need something.

TR
TR
You are the winner of my open ended statement. Maybe BHO elect will start with them in his redistribution of the wealth. It is a beautiful Island but the people living there just ruin it.

They want all our support (Money) but do not want to be a state. If they do not want to be a state then lets cut ties and let them be on their own. Wonder how many millions we would save if we did that.
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Old 11-09-2008, 22:12   #13
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The next Carter...or the next Reagan?

There have been posts on this forum suggesting that from last Tuesday's bitter defeat may come another renaissance of the Republican Party.

Some analysts disagree. For example, in this morning's edition of This Week with George Stephanopoulos, the panelists agreed that the success of the Reagan presidency won the GOP a generation of voters.

They argued that if the president-elect has a successful term (by their tone, they acted as if it were a done deal), the up and coming generation that supported the president-elect will be locked in as Democrats. (George Will in particular was dour about the GOP's prospects. I am hoping that someone will tell me what this guy brings to the dance besides the pleasure he takes in the sound of his own voice.)*

Then, it occurred to me. What if they got it wrong? What if the president that got the generation of Republican voters wasn't Reagan but Carter? By this I mean, Carter was the candidate of hope and change. His administration did not do well. Then the voters decided on Reagan and Dutch took it from there.

[* Were I prone to feelings of bitterness, I'd have started ranting incoherently at this point about media bias. But I believe that I've established the fact that I'm even tempered. (As the late Chick Hearn would have said, I'm angry all the time.)]
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Old 11-10-2008, 05:58   #14
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Only thing I'm confused about here is, can infrastructure plans really reduce unemployment? My understanding is they tried this during the Great Depression with the New Deal, but it didn't really work at all.
New day...different 'New Deal'...I think. I read he's not talking of a CCC or WPA sort of idea, I think he's just talking about funding such projects (e.g., roads, bridges,etc) by contracting them out to private firms as a form of 'pump priming.'

I was listening to an interesting economic debate on NPR and the gist of the discussion was that our economy is not nearly as 'unsound' as the MSM and the 'neo-Progressive Party' make it sound--that our current national debt (which is not to be confused with the govt's deficit spending) is around 40% of our annual GDP...it was 137% at the end of WW2...and that such a ratio--even up to as much as 55-60%--is acceptable and, in fact, favorable to pushing us to take some form of positive action. Positive...not radical!

And here's a good read from Thomas Sowell, a black economist at George Mason University and a true conservative thinker.

Richard's $.02

A "Sound" Economy?
Thomas Sowell
November 04, 2008

The truest thing that Senator John McCain said during this election campaign is what got him into the most trouble: "The economy is sound."

"Sound" does not mean bullet-proof. Nor does it mean that everything is going wonderfully at the moment or that nothing needs to be done.

You may be as sick as a dog from having eaten the wrong thing. But that does not mean that you need to have your arm amputated or to receive massive doses of morphine. In other words, your body may be perfectly sound-- and radical medical treatment can do more lasting damage than your temporary suffering will.

The political left has always known how to exploit temporary economic problems to create lasting institutions reflecting their ideology. The "progressives" did that during the brief time that America was involved in the First World War, less than a year and a half.

In that brief time, they clamped on all kinds of economic controls and even restrictions on free speech that led to landmark Supreme Court cases.

When the Great Depression of the 1930s brought many of those same "progressives" back to power, led by one of the "progressives" from Woodrow Wilson's administration, Franklin D. Roosevelt, they brought the same mindset to government again, calling themselves "liberals," now that the label "progressives" had been discredited by their previous actions.

By the end of the 20th century, "liberals" had again discredited themselves, to the point where they went back to calling themselves "progressives" to escape their past, much as people do when they declare bankruptcy.

Wars, economic crises and other disruptions all provide opportunities for the left to seize on current problems to create enduring changes in the institutions of society. That is what we are witnessing today.

The media have hyped current economic problems to the point where you might think we were heading for a replay of the Great Depression of the 1930s. They have been dying to use the word "recession" but there is a clear definition of recession-- two consecutive quarters of negative growth-- and we have yet to reach that.

If the meaning of words can be changed to suit political convenience, then discussions become an exercise in futility.

Official data show that the output of the economy in the most recent quarter is down-- by less than one-half of one percent-- but at last the media have one of those two quarters required to qualify as a recession.

Whether they will get the other quarter that they need, in order to start using the word "recession" legitimately, is another story. In fact, the data-gathering process is by no means so precise that we can expect the one-half of one percent decline to hold up, since such statistics often get revised later.

It is not just a question of being able to put scare headlines on newspapers or alarmist rhetoric on television. Such things are just the prelude to massive political "change" in fundamentally sound institutions that have for more than two centuries made the American economy the envy of most of the world.

If the left succeeds, it will be like amputating your arm because of a stomach ache.

To add to the painful irony, many of those who are most eager to have a massive government intrusion into the market are among those whose previous intrusions into the market are largely responsible for the current financial crisis.

It was the left-- the "liberals" or "progressives"-- who led the charge to force lending institutions to lend to people whose credit history made them eligible only for "subprime" loans that were risky for both borrowers and lenders.

It started way back in the Carter administration, with the Community Reinvestment Act, and gained momentum over the years with legal threats from Attorney General Janet Reno and thuggery from ACORN, all to force lenders to lend where third parties wanted them to lend. Now we have a bad stomach ache-- and now the left wants to start amputating the market.
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Old 11-10-2008, 09:27   #15
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There's talk on the Democratic side of Congress about confiscating 401K's and IRA's to re-distribute the wealth. If it happens there will be riots.
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