FYI Avian Flu

mugwump · 03-08-2006, 14:25

Whew. I just got out of a net meeting where I was told I was classified as "critical personnel" in the event of avian flu pandemic. This was a commercial, big pharma client -- not a gov't agency. They are FedEx'ing Tamiflu for me and my immediate family, are recommending immediate pneumococcal vaccinations, are demanding a copy of our pandemic preparedness plan with particular focus on "social distancing", and in general scared the crap out of me.

Prominent in the discussion was talk of "potential supply-chain disruption at all levels" and "preparedness prerequisites for appropriate levels of social distancing", i.e. "if you want to stay inside you better have some food stashed away."

I work with several big pharmas and a public-health-oriented gov't agency. None of my contacts are tinfoil hat types; these are very capable clinical researchers and geneticists. All are getting increasingly...what...pessimistic? fatalistic? twitchy? over the pandemic flu issue. Most talk of "when", not "if".

Just a FYI. They certainly got my attention.

**Jack Moroney (RIP)** · 03-08-2006, 14:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by mugwump

"preparedness prerequisites for appropriate levels of social distancing", .

Cut down on bathing from now until the threat passes and I believe you will create an appropriate level of social distance.

**The Reaper** · 03-08-2006, 15:20

You live in Chicago, have an international airport, have large mass transit systems, and a lot of international visitors.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

TR

mugwump · 03-08-2006, 22:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Reaper

You live in Chicago, have an international airport, have large mass transit systems, and a lot of international visitors.

Be afraid. Be very afraid.

TR

Yeah, no kidding. Abbott Labs, Baxter and Motorola have corp. headquarters within 10 miles of me and a significant fraction of the workforce travels internationally. A lot of them live in my town. And 200,000 people go through O'Hare each day.

I think all this means in the final accounting is that we'll be among the first to get hit. The theoretical advantage of a smaller town would be a longer warning interval to yank the kids out of school and batten down the hatches. But then again the 1918 pandemic started in Fort Riley, Kansas.

An epidemiologist I know from Johns Hopkins told me not to worry. He said when it hits it will pulse through the population in successive waves until all susceptible individuals are exposed. The size of your community and its transportation links dictate when in the overall cycle you get hit, but he says all communities, regardless of size, will get hit eventually (he actually said each community will get hit three times, with the second wave producing the most fatalities).

The Los Alamos pandemic transmission simulation is here (requires RealPlayer - be patient as nothing much happens for the first 90 days. This is the only public domain source I could find -- about midway down in the section entitled U.S. Pandemic Simulation. ): http://tinyurl.com/rdvpg

My friend sent this to me a while ago - he says this appears accurate as far as it goes but it represents only the first of the three projected pulses. He was the guy who predicted that anti-retroviral AIDS therapy would actually worsen infection rates in the third world, which has turned out to be true. Smart cat.

According to the simulation, Chicago is recovering from Pulse I right when Free Pineland is getting hammered.

mugwump · 03-08-2006, 22:59

Quote:

Talked over the weekend with one of my somewhat scientifically inclined buddies who called to discuss the implications of the German cat catching the bird flu...

Among other things, he suggested getting 3 months of food, 3 months of surgical masks, etc..

I think your friend is right. The predicted disruption to the transportation system will wreak havoc on food distribution if borne out. Masks? Better than nothing, but when I worked in a high-risk environment it took 45 minutes to gear up and we only worked for 30 minutes before re-gowning . You'd need boots and dip troughs, gloves, goggles, etc. to be really effective.

I think the best advice I've gotten was to plan on getting sick. Most of those infected will pull through. Have sufficient OTC meds to keep your temp at 101F, make sure you have electrolyte replacment on hand (you can make your own, recipes are on the net). Have sufficient food to last until production/distribution comes back up. Get some chlorine bleach for your water supply -- we have only 5 days worth of chlorine stockpiled for water processing in Chicago.

We live in a just-in-time world. That can be problematic if things start to wobble.

03-09-2006, 08:57

A few questions:

What types of meds do you recommend to have at home? Not necessarily brands, but more specific than OTC would be appreciated.

In case you attract avian flu, what would you do? Edited to add: This is a specific concern, because Sweden will not be able to handle this. We do not have anything close to enough Tamiflu and whatnot, nor the capacity to produce it. That green card sounds even more tempting now...

I'm going to start making preparations tomorrow.

Martin

03-09-2006, 09:08

Also, what do you think will happen to electrical supply?

Thanks!

Martin

Sten · 03-09-2006, 09:37

I hope we can discuss several of the assumptions for my own piece of mind.

1. Will bird flu will actually become a pandemic? Until I hear a whole group of egg heads on NPR saying this is going to happen I will have much doubt. The crack pots CNN and other worthless MSM outlets dig up have not convinced me.

2. When Bird flu hits it will shut down of the US for 3 months? I don't buy it. I have a picture of my great grandmother on her wedding day riding in a pony cart as all of the horse carts in Chicago were in use as hearses for the dead of the 1918 pandemic. If people were still getting married during that one I think the trucks will still roll during a modern outbreak.

3. If the country is shut down for 2+months, what will happen to the banking system? I am pretty sure that Country Wide mortgage will still want a mortgage payment from me. What will happen to Wall St? To further dig on Wall Street, what will happen to all the world markets? The 1918 Pandemic did not knock out the world banking system nor put it on holiday.

mugwump · 03-09-2006, 14:33

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sten

I hope we can discuss several of the assumptions for my own piece of mind.

2. When Bird flu hits it will shut down of the US for 3 months? I don't buy it. I have a picture of my great grandmother on her wedding day riding in a pony cart as all of the horse carts in Chicago were in use as hearses for the dead of the 1918 pandemic. If people were still getting married during that one I think the trucks will still roll during a modern outbreak.

Your great-granny was made of sterner stuff, I suspect. She was used to consumption, polio, rheumatic fever, etc. knocking people off with great regularity. Now, $$$ billions change hands if your arthritis meds increase the chance of heart attack from 1 in a thousand to 2 in a thousand ("It's a 100% increase!!!")

Cities are much larger and denser now than 1918. And we didn't have Fox and CNN.

IF the pandemic hits, I think the predictions about the economy will come true. But there are a lot of people madly scrambling to prevent that from happening. I still have hope for a vaccine. We just need a bit more time and some political will.

mugwump · 03-09-2006, 14:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martin

A few questions:

What types of meds do you recommend to have at home? Not necessarily brands, but more specific than OTC would be appreciated.

In case you attract avian flu, what would you do? Edited to add: This is a specific concern, because Sweden will not be able to handle this. We do not have anything close to enough Tamiflu and whatnot, nor the capacity to produce it. That green card sounds even more tempting now...

I'm going to start making preparations tomorrow.

Martin

Don't worry about Tamiflu, it probably won't work anyway. In the family clusters in Turkey, the virus became resistant to Tamiflu during the course of a single illness. "They" are talking about needing to triple the dose to be effective. I suspect it won't make a difference. For a while there was talk about collecting urine from patients taking Tamiflu and diluting/administering it back to the patient, but apparently it is excreted as a metabolite that is poorly absorbed.

Someone recommended this to me as having decent home treatment info:

www.fluwikie.com/uploads/Consequences/NewGuideOct7b.pdf

03-09-2006, 15:22

Checking it out now.

Thanks!

Martin

tonyh762 · 04-05-2006, 21:55

The AMC (animal medical center) in new york has conducted a limited study with avian flu and felines, and have documented feline to feline transmission of the virus, this bodes ill for all.
As for vaccines, well as the mutation bringing this flu to pandemic proportions doesn't exist yet i think it may be a ways off yet, dont put too much faith in Tamiflu either

mugwump · 04-06-2006, 11:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by tonyh762

The AMC (animal medical center) in new york has conducted a limited study with avian flu and felines, and have documented feline to feline transmission of the virus, this bodes ill for all.
As for vaccines, well as the mutation bringing this flu to pandemic proportions doesn't exist yet i think it may be a ways off yet, dont put too much faith in Tamiflu either

Tony, do you have a cite? I can't find anything on their web site.