ghuinness
09-07-2005, 09:14
(Stratfor)
Al-Zarqawi: Looking Toward Saudi Arabia?
September 06, 2005 22 07 GMT
Summary
Al Qaeda's chief in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, released an Internet audio recording Sept. 6 in which he reviled the Saudi monarchy for combating Islamist militants in the Saudi kingdom. With al Qaeda assets in Saudi Arabia severely weakened, al-Zarqawi is eyeing this battleground from Iraq as an opportunity to expand the jihadist campaign to the Saudi kingdom under his own leadership.
Analysis
In a new audio recording posted on the Internet on Sept. 6, al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, condemned the Saudi government in a lengthy diatribe that accuses the regime of treachery to the Muslim nation and to Islam for its fight against jihadists in the region. Al-Zarqawi accuses the "Saudi tyrants" of ruling without legitimacy and allowing the West to gain a foothold in the Arabian Peninsula by looting its oil wealth. Al-Zarqawi also cites the death of Saleh al-Oufi, the head of al Qaeda's military operations in the kingdom.
This newest tape marks a significant shift in al-Zarqawi's communiqués, which have focused primarily on the insurgency he leads in Iraq with the sanction of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Looking to the east from his base in Iraq, al-Zarqawi sees a prime opportunity to stake a claim in the jihadist insurgency in the Saudi kingdom. The Saudi insurgency has been in a state of continuing decline since June 2004, as Saudi security forces have made significant progress in rooting out militant strongholds. The most recent blow to the Saudi militants came on Aug. 18 when al-Oufi was killed in a raid conducted by Saudi special forces in the western city of Medina -- marking the almost complete annihilation of the al Qaeda leadership in the kingdom. Furthermore, Saudi security forces have been engaged in battles with militants for three days straight and confirmed late Sept. 5 that Zaid Saad Zaid al-Samari, No. 3 on the list of most-wanted militants in the kingdom, had been killed in a raid in the eastern city of Dammam.
As the political process picks up in Iraq and Sunni strongholds in the country increasingly withdraw support for the jihadist insurgency, al-Zarqawi is on the lookout for a new arena to stage operations in the name of al Qaeda. Saudi Arabia, the protector of Islam's most holy sites, is undoubtedly an attractive option for the Jordanian jihadist leader -- though he will likely continue to base attacks from outside the kingdom (if not from Iraq itself) in order to avoid capture. However, al-Zarqawi will have to prove his worth as a leader to bin Laden through action, not words. It is quite possible that al-Zarqawi could stage and claim a medium-scale attack in the Saudi kingdom in the near future. Although the Saudi jihadist movement could be revived with many battle-hardened and experienced fighters coming from Iraq, al-Zarqawi's ability to efficiently carry out significant attacks in Saudi Arabia from off-site remains highly questionable.
Al-Zarqawi: Looking Toward Saudi Arabia?
September 06, 2005 22 07 GMT
Summary
Al Qaeda's chief in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, released an Internet audio recording Sept. 6 in which he reviled the Saudi monarchy for combating Islamist militants in the Saudi kingdom. With al Qaeda assets in Saudi Arabia severely weakened, al-Zarqawi is eyeing this battleground from Iraq as an opportunity to expand the jihadist campaign to the Saudi kingdom under his own leadership.
Analysis
In a new audio recording posted on the Internet on Sept. 6, al Qaeda's leader in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, condemned the Saudi government in a lengthy diatribe that accuses the regime of treachery to the Muslim nation and to Islam for its fight against jihadists in the region. Al-Zarqawi accuses the "Saudi tyrants" of ruling without legitimacy and allowing the West to gain a foothold in the Arabian Peninsula by looting its oil wealth. Al-Zarqawi also cites the death of Saleh al-Oufi, the head of al Qaeda's military operations in the kingdom.
This newest tape marks a significant shift in al-Zarqawi's communiqués, which have focused primarily on the insurgency he leads in Iraq with the sanction of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. Looking to the east from his base in Iraq, al-Zarqawi sees a prime opportunity to stake a claim in the jihadist insurgency in the Saudi kingdom. The Saudi insurgency has been in a state of continuing decline since June 2004, as Saudi security forces have made significant progress in rooting out militant strongholds. The most recent blow to the Saudi militants came on Aug. 18 when al-Oufi was killed in a raid conducted by Saudi special forces in the western city of Medina -- marking the almost complete annihilation of the al Qaeda leadership in the kingdom. Furthermore, Saudi security forces have been engaged in battles with militants for three days straight and confirmed late Sept. 5 that Zaid Saad Zaid al-Samari, No. 3 on the list of most-wanted militants in the kingdom, had been killed in a raid in the eastern city of Dammam.
As the political process picks up in Iraq and Sunni strongholds in the country increasingly withdraw support for the jihadist insurgency, al-Zarqawi is on the lookout for a new arena to stage operations in the name of al Qaeda. Saudi Arabia, the protector of Islam's most holy sites, is undoubtedly an attractive option for the Jordanian jihadist leader -- though he will likely continue to base attacks from outside the kingdom (if not from Iraq itself) in order to avoid capture. However, al-Zarqawi will have to prove his worth as a leader to bin Laden through action, not words. It is quite possible that al-Zarqawi could stage and claim a medium-scale attack in the Saudi kingdom in the near future. Although the Saudi jihadist movement could be revived with many battle-hardened and experienced fighters coming from Iraq, al-Zarqawi's ability to efficiently carry out significant attacks in Saudi Arabia from off-site remains highly questionable.