Airbornelawyer
05-23-2005, 12:53
Yesterday, the ruling coalition in Germany received a spanking.
Elections were held in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia), a heavily industrialized and urbanized northern German state (Cologne and the Ruhr industrial region are there). Going in, everyone expected the ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens to do poorly. The SPD had run the state, either alone or in a coalition, since 1966, but support had been declining for years, mainly going to third parties. But the SPD/Green coalition did even worse than expected, while the Christian Democrats (CDU) did much better.
As of this morning, preliminary election results (http://www.wahlen.lds.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2005/lwahl/a000lw0500.html) show the SPD falling from 42.8% to 37.1%, while its Green coalition partners lost just under a percent, going from 7.1% to 6.2%. The CDU jumped from 37% to 44.8%. The Free Democrats, the CDU's sometime coalition partner, lost ground, going from 9.8% to 6.2%, but together the CDU and FDP will have enough seats to take control of the state legislature (Landtag)
As a result, Germany's Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, has decided to call early elections for this September (technically, he is calling for a vote of no-confidence in his government, which will result in new elections). Given the recent trend in German politics, he has a good chance of losing, but he cannot be counted out. His last election campaign was characterized by a lot of demagoguery, especially regarding the United States. He basically won reelection on anti-Americanism.
I imagine domestic issues will dominate, especially Germany's economic woes, but these have an international component as well. Many otherwise reasonable economic reforms are dead on arrival because of European Union rules and politics.
Foreign policy, especially on international security issues, may be an issue, but probably only as a diversion. Neither CDU nor SPD seem likely to change the "we'll help the anti-terror coalition, but not too much" policy which puts German troops in Afghanistan, but only for ISAF peacekeeping, and has Germans training Iraqi soldiers and police, but only outside Iraq. Neither party seems likely to make a big issue of international security and German-US relations, as the fringe elements each is competing for – German nationalists on the right and leftists on the… well, left – are both fairly anti-American and anti-foreign "adventurism."
Still, it would bring a smile to my face to see Schröder and his cronies, especially former terrorist sympathizer and Green leader Joschka Fischer, out of a job. And even if not a major improvement, a CDU-led government would be an improvement over the SPD and Greens.
Elections were held in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia), a heavily industrialized and urbanized northern German state (Cologne and the Ruhr industrial region are there). Going in, everyone expected the ruling coalition of the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens to do poorly. The SPD had run the state, either alone or in a coalition, since 1966, but support had been declining for years, mainly going to third parties. But the SPD/Green coalition did even worse than expected, while the Christian Democrats (CDU) did much better.
As of this morning, preliminary election results (http://www.wahlen.lds.nrw.de/landtagswahlen/2005/lwahl/a000lw0500.html) show the SPD falling from 42.8% to 37.1%, while its Green coalition partners lost just under a percent, going from 7.1% to 6.2%. The CDU jumped from 37% to 44.8%. The Free Democrats, the CDU's sometime coalition partner, lost ground, going from 9.8% to 6.2%, but together the CDU and FDP will have enough seats to take control of the state legislature (Landtag)
As a result, Germany's Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, has decided to call early elections for this September (technically, he is calling for a vote of no-confidence in his government, which will result in new elections). Given the recent trend in German politics, he has a good chance of losing, but he cannot be counted out. His last election campaign was characterized by a lot of demagoguery, especially regarding the United States. He basically won reelection on anti-Americanism.
I imagine domestic issues will dominate, especially Germany's economic woes, but these have an international component as well. Many otherwise reasonable economic reforms are dead on arrival because of European Union rules and politics.
Foreign policy, especially on international security issues, may be an issue, but probably only as a diversion. Neither CDU nor SPD seem likely to change the "we'll help the anti-terror coalition, but not too much" policy which puts German troops in Afghanistan, but only for ISAF peacekeeping, and has Germans training Iraqi soldiers and police, but only outside Iraq. Neither party seems likely to make a big issue of international security and German-US relations, as the fringe elements each is competing for – German nationalists on the right and leftists on the… well, left – are both fairly anti-American and anti-foreign "adventurism."
Still, it would bring a smile to my face to see Schröder and his cronies, especially former terrorist sympathizer and Green leader Joschka Fischer, out of a job. And even if not a major improvement, a CDU-led government would be an improvement over the SPD and Greens.