View Full Version : Societal Collapse Scenario 1
Lighthouse
08-20-2014, 12:44
TS gave me the "nod" for this post.
This scenario came from the card game "Conflicted." The goal is to explore how far people will go to survive while keeping morality and humanity, while trying to survive
An Expected Visitor
You have your food storage in place, six months worth of food and water. One of your friends comes knocking saying that his home has been ransacked, he and his family of four have nothing but the clothes on their backs and they need a place to stay.
Your friend has very few useful skills and taking them in would cut down your supply timeline in half. At this time there is no way you can replenish your supplies without risking your own life in one way or another. Would you open your home and your supplies to your friend and his family or wouldn't you? Why?
Lighthouse
08-20-2014, 12:50
No good deed goes unpunished I guess. Turning him away might make him a threat to me and my family eventually so it may be best to just make him an ally. He would to earn his keep however. Learn some skills and be on point during supply runs.
Also he wouldn't get half my goods neither would he know how much I have. I would give bring out two months worth of food and split that so he has one month of food for himself and his family. At the same time I've got some extra eyes and bodies to reinforce what I've got in place.
Barbarian
08-20-2014, 13:32
I enjoy exercises like these, but there are a lot of unanswered questions that come along with your scenario.
Examples:
How much time has passed since the collapse?
Are there any communities nearby that pulled together to form a polity?
Regional demographics?
Not trying to bash your scenario, but one needs SA to make good decisions. Even the question you posed above could be affected greatly by these three, which came off the top of my head, just now. Details are important.
The Reaper
08-20-2014, 13:36
I think you are making a big mistake giving him a quantity of food and letting him go.
When you do that, he can go home and say screw you, or lose the food again. He already lost his supply. Or said he did. What if he is just trying to plus up his own stocks?
Agree that you might be able to use his help. It is going to be very difficult providing security and doing the work that would need to be done with just you and your family, unless you have a half-dozen teen-aged males still at home.
If you want to cut your own family food supply in half by giving it to friends, that is your call.
The only way I would do that would be if he had serious skills (which he doesn't appear to), if we had a pre-arranged sharing agreement (which wasn't mentioned), or if he and his family moved in with me and worked for the group to earn his meals one day at the time.
When someone says, "I'm coming to your house if XYZ happens, my standard response is, "What are you bringing?"
Just my .02, YMMV.
TR
This resembles earlier scenarios previously discussed here in different threads, but I'll bite.
First of all, unless you live in the desert, no one needs a 6 month food allotment neatly packed away in the basement/garage. Water, yes; Ammo, yes; Food, no. A simple formula to remember is: Training+practice= Food. Learn to trap, hunt, fish, field dress, cook/smoke, conceal, and store harvests properly. Develop a small indoor or outdoor greenhouse for fresh veggies. My reasoning behind not storing so much food is because food that keeps for that long isn't good for you in the long run (especially MRE's). What will you do when stored goods run out? Danger will still be everywhere.
Second, I say let the poor bastard in. Teach him, and his family, what you know about survival/marksmanship/field craft. They will soon become a great asset, and even improve your friendship (barring any infidelity issues).
Lastly, in this sort of scenario, you'll have to risk your life damn near every day to survive, so that point is kind off moot when it comes to supplies. A lot of people don't know the first thing about survival. They're hungry and without their cable TV, so emotion will get the better of them. Therefore, their mental acuity and ability to survive has decreased. That will make it easier to spot and dispatch any would be aggressors in your AO. Take a gander at this thread:
http://professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41217
These are my opinions only, YMMV :)
Lighthouse
08-20-2014, 14:31
This game was made by a Prepper and it self admitting that some cards lack details due to space but says to apply them to you and your living situation. For me I live in an apartment complex so I will most likely be Effed in the A if I don't make nice with the neighbors. The scenarios are some things that are possible. My intention was to learn from the best instead while creating a good discussion.
This resembles earlier scenarios previously discussed here in different threads, but I'll bite.
First of all, unless you live in the desert, no one needs a 6 month food allotment neatly packed away in the basement/garage. Water, yes; Ammo, yes; Food, no. A simple formula to remember is: Training+practice= Food. Learn to trap, hunt, fish, field dress, cook/smoke, conceal, and store harvests properly. Develop a small indoor or outdoor greenhouse for fresh veggies. My reasoning behind not storing so much food is because food that keeps for that long isn't good for you in the long run (especially MRE's). What will you do when stored goods run out? Danger will still be everywhere.
Second, I say let the poor bastard in. Teach him, and his family, what you know about survival/marksmanship/field craft. They will soon become a great asset, and even improve your friendship (barring any infidelity issues).
Lastly, in this sort of scenario, you'll have to risk your life damn near every day to survive, so that point is kind off moot when it comes to supplies. A lot of people don't know the first thing about survival. They're hungry and without their cable TV, so emotion will get the better of them. Therefore, their mental acuity and ability to survive has decreased. That will make it easier to spot and dispatch any would be aggressors in your AO. Take a gander at this thread:
http://professionalsoldiers.com/forums/showthread.php?t=41217
These are my opinions only, YMMV :)
atticus finch
08-20-2014, 14:42
TS gave me the "nod" for this post.
This scenario came from the card game "Conflicted." The goal is to explore how far people will go to survive while keeping morality and humanity, while trying to survive
An Expected Visitor
You have your food storage in place, six months worth of food and water. One of your friends comes knocking saying that his home has been ransacked, he and his family of four have nothing but the clothes on their backs and they need a place to stay.
Your friend has very few useful skills and taking them in would cut down your supply timeline in half. At this time there is no way you can replenish your supplies without risking your own life in one way or another. Would you open your home and your supplies to your friend and his family or wouldn't you? Why?
My first question, and observation as to the first mistake is:
If this individual has no immediate skills towards self-sufficiency, especially in an emergency situation. Then how and/or why does this individual know you have anything he might need or want?
If he never bothered to learn any skills towards the concept of self-sufficiency, more correctly the personal responsibility of self-preservation. These are the same kind've arrogant fools who never bothered to put away any needed items towards the same goal.
Consequently, the first mistake was letting a fool such as this know by any means you have anything of value in an emergency situation. I've seen their kind many times and soon as they know you are prepared thier mindset is the same "don't have to do anything towards that, I'll just go to so & so's house"
And they are damned dangerous as they are the first ones that'll turn on you out of envy, not jealousy, and that the most dangerous of emotions.
I would send them home and tell them there isn't anything I can do for them at the moment, head on home & wait until I contact them and we'll go from there.
I'd backtrack them to see where they go & what they do, home or elsewhere? If they go home, any evidence in thier neighborhood they're telling the truth? Evidence of violence? Anything of the sort? Neighbors in the area showing any evidence of trauma or anything? Are they looking emotionally upset or anything? Did that individual show or have any evidence of any trauma associated with such an event?
Or worse, did they not go home and you observe them 'talking' to someone else? Who did they talk to and where are they?
If no evidence anywhere they were telling the truth or you observe some other kind've behavior, at least you know the individual was lying, now the question of why? And it's a better starting point for knowing what to do next.
If my friend came knocking, without question or hesitation I would help.
I take my friendships seriously….and they differ substantially from acquaintances.
Whether I let him and his family stay would depend on the entire family's character and integrity, NOT just my friend's.
As well as their complete acceptance of my dictatorial leadership.
Being offered a bed and/or a meal does not include any voting rights or opinions unless specifically requested.
For me, offering help to a friend(rather than an acquaintance) is easy.
But the much harder part for me is if/how that offer of help may or may not extend to my friend's family.
Lighthouse
08-20-2014, 14:51
When someone says, "I'm coming to your house if XYZ happens, my standard response is, "What are you bringing?"
Just my .02, YMMV.
TR
Hence why I moved out of a populated urban area asap. During Sandy people in nyc were bringing firearms to the gas stations just because they had to wait a long time to get gas. I could only imagine how people in an urban area would be if they heard no food or water was coming.
How did he get to my house?
Why is he and his family still alive?
In a collapse of society where folks are ransacking homes his block of homes would be toast. No gas and he would be walking. Somebody would kill him for his shoes and women.
My block may be on the hungry side but nobody's home would have been ransacked.
I think a more interesting question would be "What would the police be doing?"
They are already the most organized force in any community. The "law and order" politicians band with the local police force, gather the families and begin sweeps of better off areas of the city confiscating all food for the "common good". That MRAP, SWAT team plus a few dozen LEOs in riot gear coming up your street looking for that half carton of instant oatmeal? Syphoning gas from your car and lawn mower?
I think a more interesting question would be "What would the police be doing?"
During Katrina they seemed to be looting for themselves, not the common good. :D
Pat
I am planning on being away from here long before I might have to deal with this, but if I were to get stuck at home in the BURBS..
I am going to guess that people are going to flee from areas adjacent to those that are being 'hit' to areas they perceive as 'safe'. Which if my area is considered 'safe' it will likely have an influx of refugees from other areas who are going to be foraging, especially if FEMA doesn't have a feed lot set up.
The most immediate threat is neighbors and the city councilman down the street with big ambitions. None of which are friends and I would not share food with them. In the short term the keeping a low profile and playing dumb might be the best tactic with these folks.
If it is a collapse and mass chaos none of my friends are likely to travel to my house. If phones are working the most I might get is a call about what is going on, what to do and I would probably get an invite to come over with my stuff.....which again brings up the question of what assets do they have, do I want to share mine, or risk moving and do I want to be around these people for a period of time.
But if one of them and their family show up as you described in the short term, considering refugees and neighbors... it is another set of ears, eyes and a trigger finger, but long term they would have to be a provider as well and in the city that will be an ugly task..
atticus finch
08-20-2014, 16:50
How did he get to my house?
Why is he and his family still alive?
In a collapse of society where folks are ransacking homes his block of homes would be toast. No gas and he would be walking. Somebody would kill him for his shoes and women.
My block may be on the hungry side but nobody's home would have been ransacked.
I think a more interesting question would be "What would the police be doing?"
They are already the most organized force in any community. The "law and order" politicians band with the local police force, gather the families and begin sweeps of better off areas of the city confiscating all food for the "common good". That MRAP, SWAT team plus a few dozen LEOs in riot gear coming up your street looking for that half carton of instant oatmeal? Syphoning gas from your car and lawn mower?
This was what I had in mind about "who is he talking to, if anyone?" although I wasn't sure how to word it without it sounding paranoid. I wouldn't put it past the so-called 'authorities' to institute a very evil version of "see something, say something".........and offer the incentive of a reward in terms of food or whatever of what is confiscated (stolen) from others.
Those who failed to take some responsibility for themselves rat out others for a cut of the theft, possibly why they're at your door asking for 'help' ?
Now they know for certain or confirmed what you have & go drop a dime on you. Whether they're friends or not, desperate people under these circumstances are one step away from becoming evil people.
I'll help those I know who've made an honest effort to take responsibility for themselves yet still came up short. Circumstances and/or responsibilities nowadays can put a real crimp in an individuals situation, regardless of how hard they try.
The Reaper
08-20-2014, 17:40
I think a more interesting question would be "What would the police be doing?"
At home looking after their own families, I suspect.
I think the premise presumes society is without rule of law.
Good questions, though.
And you can assume that if you help him, whether it is him, his wife, or his kids talking, word will get out that you have food, and you will have a lot more visitors. Maybe even the ones that cleaned him out.
And what will he do when he is out again? You know he will be back.
In the end, only you can decide how much of your family supply you want to give to others. That would be a pretty bad feeling when you realize that you and your family are running out as well, and you gave a bunch of your supply away.
TR
Two thoughts:
If someone is knocking on your door asking for help, it is because they know you have the stuff to help them with. If they know and you trust them not to tell anyone else, they are an asset. Trust is worth more than gold in tough places.
If you don't trust them, you most likely have good reason. In which case everyone already knows you have stuff. Concerns about them telling are moot.
I am struck that some many people can use the word "friend" and "worthless" about the same person. If they are my friend, it is because I trust them. And I don't have many friends.
Bottom line: I would rather have someone with me that I trust who did not have a lot of skills then someone I did not trust who was an excellent fighter and the best mechanic in the entire world.
What happens if everyone else has this plan to hunt though and the wildlife starts running out? In the book One Second After, this is what happens. The wild animals all get hunted down to zero essentially. I would definitely say to have those skills you are talking about, but unless you have a bug-out shelter you can get to that is hundreds of miles out into the middle of nowhere in say the forests of Canada or something, then I'd also have a food supply.
The thing about wild animals is, they're smarter than most people. Most people lack the skills necessary to quietly stalk and harvest game. Trapping for that matter is a lost art to most, even among the hunting community. Bullets could go pretty quick in a scenario like this as well, hence trapping and bow hunting skills (quiet, reusable tools) would be paramount. So, to think that just because people start romping through the forest like Hansel and Gretel killing off all the animals is a bit of a stretch.
Preparations are good, but realistic goals are good too. I can't see the average prepper managing to fend off the hordes for long enough to warrant a massive food supply. On the flip side, I can't see the average American surviving past 60 days. Waterborne illnesses, injuries, lack of nourishment, depression/suicides, desperation, and gangs will take out a significant portion within that timeframe.
... So, to think that just because people start romping through the forest like Hansel and Gretel killing off all the animals is a bit of a stretch....
Start with the ones within arms reach. Anyone with a bird feeder has squirrels and pigeons/doves. My neighborhood also has a number of rabbits - but you have to be out early to see them. Practice with a simple trap - and .22s aren't that loud.
Wild don't have to be big.
Trick question.
People that have very few useful skills........are not my friends.
Haha
Lighthouse
08-21-2014, 09:40
How did he get to my house?
Why is he and his family still alive?
This got me thinking. He must know I'm reliable to an extent or he sold me out already and led the marauders to my house. Now that I look at the card it doesn't say anything about his family being with at the time of his plea for help.
Team Sergeant
08-21-2014, 11:44
This got me thinking. He must know I'm reliable to an extent or he sold me out already and led the marauders to my house. Now that I look at the card it doesn't say anything about his family being with at the time of his plea for help.
This would be a time that lesser men (spineless cowards) would sell their soul to protect themselves over all others.
Everything should be suspect.
This scenario got me thinking about the Amish and Mennonite communities. From one of their FAQs page:
Q: I understand the Amish belief in nonresistance and pacifism. Does this principle extend to personal situations where you are confronted with imminent evil -- say a known murderer confronting you and your family in your home? Can you use force to preserve your life in this situation? To what extent? What is the Biblical basis for your position?
A: Both Amish and Mennonites are committed to a lifestyle of peace and non- violence. Yes, this pervades every aspect of life. However, no one can predict with certainty how anyone would really react to an absolutely unprecedented crisis such as described above. Emotions as well as thoughts are involved and the situation is personalized. Having said this, we would hope that as people who have practiced a lifestyle of peace, we would not resort to force and violence in a crisis situation such as the one described.
We must briefly make several points:
There is no assurance that use of force would save my life or the life of my family if confronted by an attacker.
We could recall many accounts of unhoped for deliverances, whether by mediation, nature, or divine Providence, when Christians refused to use force when confronted by an attacker.
If the result is death at the hands of the attacker, so be it; death is not threatening to us as Christians. Hopefully the attacker will have at least had a glimpse of the love of Christ in our nonviolent response.
The Christian does not choose a nonviolent approach to conflict because of assurance it will always work; rather the Christian chooses this approach because of his / her commitment to Jesus Christ as Lord.
The analogy to war in the situation described above tends to break down when we think of the vast preparations for war -- accumulation of weapons, training of the military, etc. War is planned and seldom is aggression so clearly defined with the defense staying on its home turf.
Some of the Biblical references for peace and non-resistance are: Matthew 5:38-48; John 18:36; Romans 12:18-21; and I Corinthians 6:18.
Link: http://amishreligiousfreedom.org/amishfaq.htm#pacif
This seems to pose an interesting conundrum. They would certainly make themselves easy prey, yet they possess primitive (or at least archaic) skills that would be very useful. If they won't defend themselves, would they allow others to defend them in trade? And if so, would they admit it if approached before the need arrises?
Pat
The Amish have a website!? That sure strikes me as ironic!
Probably Mennonite.
Pat
Pericles
08-21-2014, 14:27
When someone says, "I'm coming to your house if XYZ happens, my standard response is, "What are you bringing?"
My standard response is "What makes you think that I will be home?"
The Amish have a website!? That sure strikes me as ironic!
Website explicitly says that they are not Amish. Just people who have contact with the Amish either via family or business.
This scenario got me thinking about the Amish and Mennonite communities. From one of their FAQs page:
This seems to pose an interesting conundrum. They would certainly make themselves easy prey, yet they possess primitive (or at least archaic) skills that would be very useful. If they won't defend themselves, would they allow others to defend them in trade? And if so, would they admit it if approached before the need arrises?
Pat
Who knows what people would do in a real situation. Historically speaking, the Amish/Mennonites have often fled until they found a place that would protect them. If fleeing was not an option, a lot of them died for their faith or were imprisoned. Others decided they did not want to be Mennonites anymore. Along that line, Ben Franklin recounted a story of some Mennonites that decided to fight after a brutal Indian raid.
I suspect that you would see a lot of the Amish change their ways if serious trouble came across the land. The modern Amish have never seen persecution like their forebears endured. Having not been tested, I doubt a lot of them have the same conviction.
I hope we never have to find out.
The police and local structure in a small town might stay intact and helpful and keep it together when the world goes to shit. Large cities would be a Charlie Foxtrot.
Do you live in a small town/small city? Or are you responding to a romantic notion of how you think the world should work? Maybe it is because of the part of the country I live in but I have yet to see a small town cop that I could respect. Not saying they were bad people, but you get what you pay for and small towns/cities don't pay much. A lot of the time, they are not local or have another job in the community. In one local town, almost all of them also work as security at the local plant. Sheriffs departments seem a little better but they are a mixed bag.
The good things about small towns is that everyone knows everyone else. There is usually a few key extended families who have the numbers, collective wealth, and internal leadership structure to accomplish more then the local rent a cops ever could. Again, this is just my experience with the neighbors I grew up in and live in now. But in every town I know about around me, I could name the "families" that matter.
I was re-thinking the friends and family thing again....
All I have to do to see the future here in the City during a collapse is look back to 2008-2009 when friends where looking for jobs.....Oh man I could really use some work....here today, gone tomorrow when they find something better.....then when that falls through they are back again.....it's an endless cycle and they will pull down with them if you aren't careful.
Gimme, Gimme, Gimme.
Your best off to tell those friends to f-off until they can bring something to the table.
Monsoon65
08-21-2014, 18:52
When someone says, "I'm coming to your house if XYZ happens, my standard response is, "What are you bringing?"
When my sister in law and her family of five saw our pantry, those were the exact words out of her mouth.
My reply was the same; "What are you bringing?" Her answer was a blank stare.
People greatly misunderstand "living off the land" in my opinion.
I've spent many an enjoyable evening listening to an old, full-blooded Ojibwe gentleman--my adopted son's grandfather--reminisce about his childhood and the "old ways." The Ojibwe have (had?) a strong oral tradition; he could name the warrior from his grandfather's day who killed the black bear that staved off starvation in their clan during a particularly rough stretch.
The Ojibwe were masters of their environment and yet regularly found themselves on the edge of starvation. Their warfare was usually predicated upon economics...displacing or exterminating tribes that competed for resources. For example, they drove the Lakota and Dakota out of Wisconsin/Minnesota/Ontario and onto the Great Plains. And pre-horse, the plains were a pretty shitty place to live.
Ojibwe life centered around constant seasonal migrations following their food sources: in the spring--sugaring, planting gardens, and netting/drying/smoking the great schools of spawning walleye; in the summer--drying roots, berries, fish and meat; in the fall--hunting, harvesting the spring planting, gathering wild rice, and making cattail root flour. I'm leaving a lot out but suffice to say they had knowledge, gathered over millenia, of probably a hundred food sources, they were extremely knowledgeable about long-term food storage, and possessed extremely sophisticated caching technology. Man, woman, and child worked like dogs all year to gather and preserve food.
And still they periodically starved.
If you're working hard, and long-term survival will be hard, an adult male will need 3000 calories per day (AT though-hikers estimate 3.3k kcals/day). A dressed rabbit will yield about 17 oz. of meat at 47 kcal/oz. That's 4 rabbits per adult male per day. Three, if you're an Ojibwe and you burn off the fur, pound the bunny into a pulp (bones, brains, guts, and skin) and throw the whole mess into the stew pot. If you're harvesting freshwater clams, you'll need about 5 pounds of clam meat per day--about 320 medium sized clams. Linguine con vongole isn't very filling without the pasta and olive oil.
That's why the Ojibwe went to war over a maple forest or a shallow bay...they were fighting for the calorie-dense maple sugar and wild rice.
And that's why in the PNW they went out in little boats to spear great big whales and the Innuit froze their asses off--for the blubber.
Good luck trying to support your family by hunting/foraging.
If you have six months of food when the SHTF, immediately search out a group that is forming a polity around communal defense/agriculture and try to barter your way in. You might get shot and your food appropriated, but you have about a zero percent chance of surviving on your own, anyway.
In a true grid-down scenario, memory serves that the DHS and DIA are estimating 119M deaths East of the Mississippi. (Either they didn't care enough about Westerners to calculate the odds, or we should all move out west.)
Peregrino
08-21-2014, 20:58
----- In a true grid-down scenario, memory serves that the DHS and DIA are estimating 119M deaths East of the Mississippi. (Either they didn't care enough about Westerners to calculate the odds, or we should all move out west.)
The issue is population density vs. carrying capacity with civil unrest, pandemic, etc. factored in. In rural areas west of the Mississippi through almost to the Pacific coast the lower population density and different agricultural resources and social/cultural mores will likely reduce attrition. Deaths are still expected to be around 50% of pre-crisis population.
The Reaper
08-21-2014, 21:30
The issue is population density vs. carrying capacity with civil unrest, pandemic, etc. factored in. In rural areas west of the Mississippi through almost to the Pacific coast the lower population density and different agricultural resources and social/cultural mores will likely reduce attrition. Deaths are still expected to be around 50% of pre-crisis population.
I can think of 47% we would not miss much right now. :rolleyes:
TR
Lighthouse
08-21-2014, 21:53
I can think of 47% we would not miss much right now. :rolleyes:
TR
Governor? :D