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View Full Version : 380 tons of HMX & RDX gone from Al Qaqaa. That's alot of IED's


mumbleypeg
10-25-2004, 08:56
October 25, 2004

TRACKING THE WEAPONS

Huge Cache of Explosives Vanished From Site in Iraq

By JAMES GLANZ, WILLIAM J. BROAD and DAVID E. SANGER

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 24 - The Iraqi interim government has warned the United States and international nuclear inspectors that nearly 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives - used to demolish buildings, make missile warheads and detonate nuclear weapons - are missing from one of Iraq's most sensitive former military installations.

The huge facility, called Al Qaqaa, was supposed to be under American military control but is now a no man's land, still picked over by looters as recently as Sunday. United Nations weapons inspectors had monitored the explosives for many years, but White House and Pentagon officials acknowledge that the explosives vanished sometime after the American-led invasion last year.


A Lost Stockpile

Two weeks ago, on Oct. 10, Dr. Mohammed J. Abbas of the Iraqi Ministry of Science and Technology wrote a letter to the I.A.E.A. to say the Qaqaa stockpile had been lost. He added that his ministry had judged that an "urgent updating of the registered materials is required."

A chart in his letter listed 341.7 metric tons, about 377 American tons, of HMX, RDX and PETN as missing.

The explosives missing from Al Qaqaa are the strongest and fastest in common use by militaries around the globe. The Iraqi letter identified the vanished stockpile as containing 194.7 metric tons of HMX, which stands for "high melting point explosive," 141.2 metric tons of RDX, which stands for "rapid detonation explosive," among other designations, and 5.8 metric tons of PETN, which stands for "pentaerythritol tetranitrate." The total is roughly 340 metric tons or nearly 380 American tons

Five days later, on Oct. 15, European diplomats said, the arms agency wrote the United States mission in Vienna to forward the Iraqi letter and ask that the American authorities inform the international coalition in Iraq of the missing explosives

Dr. ElBaradei, a European diplomat said, is "extremely concerned" about the potentially "devastating consequences" of the vanished stockpile.

Its fate remains unknown. Glenn Earhart, manager of an Army Corps of Engineers program in Huntsville, Ala., that is in charge of rounding up and destroying lost Iraqi munitions, said he and his colleagues knew nothing of the whereabouts of the Qaqaa stockpile.

Administration officials say Iraq was awash in munitions, including other stockpiles of exotic explosives.

"The only reason this stockpile was under seal," said one senior administration official, "is because it was located at Al Qaqaa," where nuclear work had gone on years ago.

As a measure of the size of the stockpile, one large truck can carry about 10 tons, meaning that the missing explosives could fill a fleet of almost 40 trucks.

By weight, these explosives pack far more destructive power than TNT, so armies often use them in shells, bombs, mines, mortars and many types of conventional ordinance.

"HMX and RDX have a lot of shattering power," said Dr. Van Romero, vice president for research at the New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, or New Mexico Tech, which specializes in explosives.

"Getting a large amount is difficult," he added, because most nations carefully regulate who can buy such explosives, though civilian experts can sometimes get licenses to use them for demolition and mining.

An Immediate Danger

A special property of HMX and RDX lends them to smuggling and terrorism, experts said. While violently energetic when detonated, they are insensitive to shock and physical abuse during handling and transport because of their chemical stability. A hammer blow does nothing. It takes a detonator, like a blasting cap, to release the stored energy.

Experts said the insensitivity made them safer to transport than the millions of unexploded shells, mines and pieces of live ammunition that litter Iraq. And its benign appearance makes it easy to disguise as harmless goods, easily slipped across borders.

"The immediate danger" of the lost stockpile, said an expert who recently led a team that searched Iraq for deadly arms, "is its potential use with insurgents in very small and powerful explosive devices. The other danger is that it can easily move into the terrorist web across the Middle East."

More worrisome to the I.A.E.A. - and to some in Washington - is that HMX and RDX are used in standard nuclear weapons design. In a nuclear implosion weapon, the explosives crush a hollow sphere of uranium or plutonium into a critical mass, initiating the nuclear explosion.

A crude implosion device - like the one that the United States tested in 1945 in the New Mexican desert and then dropped on Nagasaki, Japan - needs about a ton of high explosive to crush the core and start the chain reaction.Full Story (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/25/international/middleeast/25bomb.html?th)

mumbleypeg
10-25-2004, 13:58
Oh, I get it. NY Times, John Kerry campaign rhetoric. I gotta pay more attention.

As you were.

The Reaper
10-25-2004, 15:13
Wouldn't that description make it a "weapon of mass destruction"?

Only a lot of IEDs if you don't use it all at once.

TR

mumbleypeg
10-25-2004, 15:59
340 metric tons, all at once? That hadn't occured to me as a possibility. I was thinking more along the lines of suitcases, backpacks, Toyotas, Ryder vans etc.

The story was kind of shocking to me in that it is a lot of ordinance. You could sure raise a lot of hell with a quantity like that.

As the morning went on I realized that this story went out over the weekend and is something the Kerry campaign was pushing as incompetence on the part of President Bush.

Which doesn't make the idea of such a large quantity of exposives any less unnerving.

gits
10-25-2004, 22:34
Well it looks like the Kerry Campaign was fooled. The explosives were missing before the invasion. Now the Kerry campaign is accusing the Bush admin of covering it up with news organizations.

http://www.drudgereport.com/nbcw.htm

Bill Harsey
10-25-2004, 22:37
Gits, Well done home boy.

Bravo1-3
10-26-2004, 00:06
It's sort of a non-issue anyway. It's not as if there is a shortage of unexpended 152mm Artillery Shells in country, which convieniently come with their own ready to modify fuzes and built in fragmentation. It seems to me the bad guys have been using them with some success. I seriously doubt that they're sitting around saying "Boy, I sure wish we didn't have to use these 152mm purpose built man-killers, I sure wish I had some plastic explosives because they're much more high speed."

I could be wrong... :rolleyes:

1026
10-26-2004, 09:36
See-BS, caught again. http://www.drudgereport.com/nbcw6.htm

gits
10-26-2004, 09:53
Looks like the Kerry capaign has no October suprise, its time for Bush to finish off Kerry with his if he has one. I cant beleive this Kerry is still bashing Bush this morning over those explosives. Bush needs to call out on Kerry.

Guy
10-26-2004, 10:08
Only a lot of IEDs if you don't use it all at once.

TR

Makes a lot of VBIEDs/car-bombs.

The Reaper
10-26-2004, 10:49
Leave it to the media to try to make a story where there was none, to benefit their favored candidate.

Where is the coverage of Kerry personally lying about his meeting with the entire Security Counsel?

I would like to see a media bomb dropped on Kerry later this week, maybe from his taxes, criminal history, or unreleased military record. Hell, you wouldn't even have to make it up, I am sure that there is plenty of factual negative info out there. Of course, given the difficulty of getting the Sinclair piece out, I am sure that it would get little play. Better to start it with the bloggers and let it catch fire.

TR

rubberneck
10-26-2004, 11:53
Hopefully one of the many demo experts here can verify the veracity of the following:

A key point is that this is not dense stuff, where you can get a lot of weight into a small vehicle. If this was really in its raw form, it is white powder, like cornstarch or a light powdered sugar (NOT granulated sugar). Blow on it and it flies in the breeze- the stories I've seen haven't said much about what form it was in, but you would want it to be relatively raw so you could form it into main charges for artillery, etc. They don't pour granules into shells, it is mixed with binders and melted sonit will take a shape. You can't be a nice terrorist, happen by, stick some in your pocket, and run away while the US Army isn't looking- it isn't "plastic" (like, say, comp C4, which is a plastic matrix impregnated with HE, thus has a lot of filler to make it shapeable). The kinds of trucks you would need to haul it are like grain hoppers, and lots of them. You can't stack it on pallets.

That is why the nonsense about vandals running off with the stuff is just that — nonsense.

The issue, as always with explosives, is not HE- it is how to get the stuff to blow up. You can hit compressed RDX or HMX with a hammer and not set it off. And you can properly detonate ammonium nitrate fertilizer, as was done at the Oklahoma City Federal building by McVeigh et al, and have a disaster. You can also detonate wheat dust in a rural grain elevator and re-create the bombing of the African embassies.

The reason that old artillery ammunition is desired for creation of IEDs is not that it has high explosive in it, it is because those rounds have fuzes, lead cups, and boosters- the full fire train needed to make HE go "boom". Remember your fireplace- you need to start with a match, then crumpled newspaper, add twigs when they are roaring effectively, then sticks, then small branches, etc. Trying to do something useful with pure HMX or RDX is like trying to flick your BIC lighter at a 20 pound pure oak log. It will be a long time before you warm up. When I was waling around Holston Army Ammunition Plant one time, where the US manufactured its RDX and HMX, there were cloth laundry carts all over the place full of white powder that looked and felt like conrstarch. I wasn't in the least worried that if I tripped and fell against the cart I would be blown up.

The only way you make those 40 trucks crammed full of HE blow up is to set off an explosion near them. The Saddam drivers carrying them all to Syria and elsewhere in mid-March were probably smoking as they drove, with relative safety. Raw HE is easy to find- what is a challenge is making it controllably useful.

mumbleypeg
10-26-2004, 12:48
I'm just guessing but the material in question has probably gone the way of all the Yellow Cake.

The ordinance was probably dumped and the containers used to store food and water.

rubberneck
10-26-2004, 13:29
I'm just guessing but the material in question has probably gone the way of all the Yellow Cake.

The ordinance was probably dumped and the containers used to store food and water.


I think it is probably safe to assume that both are in Syria as we speak. I can't see Saddam leaving them laying around like that. Just like he did with his jets during the first gulf war I am sure they made there way out of the country before they were destroyed/captured.

gits
10-26-2004, 15:04
Christ the Kerry campaign already has ads on these explosives, http://www.johnkerry.com/video/102604_obligation.html
This more proof that the bogus missing explosives story was meant to be the October Surprise of the Kerry campaign.

Doc
10-26-2004, 16:34
I think it is probably safe to assume that both are in Syria as we speak. I can't see Saddam leaving them laying around like that. Just like he did with his jets during the first gulf war I am sure they made there way out of the country before they were destroyed/captured.

That's a key point in my book.

The Iraqis flew those planes to Iran, their mortal enemy, instead of letting the U.S. get possession of them during the first gulf war. That ploy worked the first time we went in to Iraq, why not this time?

Only the good Lord in heaven will convince me that there were no WMD's in Iraq pre-invasion last year.

Doc

The Reaper
10-26-2004, 16:38
That's a key point in my book.

The Iraqis flew those planes to Iran, their mortal enemy, instead of letting the U.S. get possession of them during the first gulf war. That ploy worked the first time we went in to Iraq, why not this time?

Only the good Lord in heaven will convince me that there were no WMD's in Iraq pre-invasion last year.

Doc

Concur.

No nukes, IMHO, maybe only a small quantity of bio, but he had chem out the wazoo.

TR

1026
10-26-2004, 17:09
I'm sure by now Kerry is receiving daily intel briefings, in addition to what he knows from his post on the Intelligence Committee, so he knows the facts here. Instead, he runs around parroting the NYT's BS.

gits
10-26-2004, 17:35
http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/002869.php

Insurgents Hauling 380 Tons Of Explosives Not Exactly A Covert Act
Unfortunately for the New York Times, no one gave a thought about the logistics of the notion that small bands of insurgents made off with 380 tons of explosives under the noses of the Coalition with no one noticing. CQ reader and retired Army Reserve Captain Ian Dodgson got paid to think about logistics, and he did some "cocktail-napkin" math that escaped the geniuses at the Paper of Record:

We're familiar with the NY Times story and the IAEA accusations that the "missing" explosives were looted from the Al-Qaqaa military base due to US negligence in securing the facility.

If I were a guerilla "looter" and I was planning such an operation from a military standpoint, here's what the task would require:

Assumptions:

-Each "looter" could haul comfortably about 25 pounds per trip to a truck. (of course after 12 hours that would require superhuman endurance)

-I'd allow 5 minutes per round trip to the truck

-Work day 12 hours

-assume security breaks down 1 week after war starts (that allows 2
weeks before the US troops arrive)

-each pickup truck can carry about 1/4 ton of explosives (I did a quick calculation based upon the dimensions and weight of a block of C-4 and the dimensions of an average small pickup) and it takes 15 minutes to either load or unload the truck.

-the secure hiding place for 380 tons of explosives is 30 minutes away.

Calculations:

-380 tons / [((12hrs/dayX60min/hr) / (5 min per load)) X (25 lbs per load) X 14 days] = 15 loaders X 2 = 30 loaders/unloaders

-30 loaders/unloaders times 200% for breaks, rest, inefficiency, etc. = 60 loaders and unloaders.

-380 tons / [(12hrs/day / 1 hr/round trip,load,unload) X (.25 tons per trip) X 14 days] = 10 trucks and drivers X 1.5 (contingency) = 15 trucks and drivers.

-4 trucks + 10-15 men to supply water, food and other logistical
requirements

Total = 19-20 trucks, 90 men working continuously for two weeks to "loot" facility.

Bottom line this operation would take the resources of AN ENTIRE COMPANY (approx. 100 men) OVER TWO WEEKS, good Intel to know exactly where the "right" explosives were hidden and a means of breaching huge steel doors and concrete of an ASP.

And all of this would have to be done in an area with numerous intel overflights that would be looking for exactly this kind of activity in the combat zone, and not get noticed at all. Like so much of what the New York Times, CBS, and the Kerry campaign feeds us ... it just doesn't add up.

Airbornelawyer
10-26-2004, 18:39
And on the other side of the equation:As a measure of the size of the stockpile, one large truck can carry about 10 tons, meaning that the missing explosives could fill a fleet of almost 40 trucks. That's a nice measure. I can't tell you how many comments I've seen which parrot this. "A fleet of 40 trucks snuck out under the nose of US forces!" Apparently, the image the Times hoped to evoke, and in enough cases successfully evoked, was a big convoy of semis truckin' through the night. Ain't she a beautiful sight?

"One large truck" that "can carry about 10 tons" is, of course, a 10-ton truck. Never see those in Iraq, especially in industrial regions. :rolleyes: And of course, if 40 10-ton trucks could move that amount of material, 80 5-ton trucks, even less conspicuous, could fill the bill.

But going the other way, a typical dry bulk trailer can carry 25 tons. So over a two-week period, one truck could make just over one trip a day out of the facility.

So the idea that the Iraqis couldn't have moved this stuff out before the invasion, along with any amount of other stuff on its way to Syria or eslewhere, without someone noticing, is ridiculous.

Gypsy
10-26-2004, 19:00
Christ the Kerry campaign already has ads on these explosives, http://www.johnkerry.com/video/102604_obligation.html
This more proof that the bogus missing explosives story was meant to be the October Surprise of the Kerry campaign.

sKerry's October surprise....November demise. :lifter

The Reaper
10-26-2004, 19:07
"You can fool some of the people all of the time...."

TR

Ambush Master
10-26-2004, 19:22
I'm sure by now Kerry is receiving daily intel briefings, in addition to what he knows from his post on the Intelligence Committee, so he knows the facts here. Instead, he runs around parroting the NYT's BS.

From the Stats that I've seen, he was never/rarely at the Security Council Meetings !!!

1026
10-26-2004, 21:34
From the Stats that I've seen, he was never/rarely at the Security Council Meetings !!!

AM- True, but it still doesn't give him an excuse. :D