View Full Version : Declining Natural Food Supply
This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.
http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/PressReleases_FactSheets/PROD01_008806
U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010
HowardCohodas
02-05-2010, 12:09
This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.
http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/PressReleases_FactSheets/PROD01_008806
U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010
I've heard predictions of doom regarding population explosion and food scarcity since I was in high school over 40 years ago.
Somehow, us wiley humans seem to figure out a way to be more productive sans government induced famines of which there are a plethora of examples. Russia comes to mind.
As long as we're buring corn I'm not too worried about us.
Most of the places suffering from starvation could feed themselves if..........
As long as we're buring corn I'm not too worried about us.
Most of the places suffering from starvation could feed themselves if..........
Don't forget as long as we are paying farmers NOT to grow food....
I've heard predictions of doom regarding population explosion and food scarcity since I was in high school over 40 years ago.
Somehow, us wiley humans seem to figure out a way to be more productive sans government induced famines of which there are a plethora of examples. Russia comes to mind.
Sure, and if we really got into a bind we could always manufacture some green stuff to eat ...
I think I saw that in a movie once.
This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.
http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/PressReleases_FactSheets/PROD01_008806
U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010
Every thing I have read leads me to have real concern for the oceans fisheries as well. Even primitive peoples understood the concept of not over hunting and fishing. We are far from maxed out on grain crop production. Distribution is the problem.
I am not concerned of mans ability to produce grain; I think this will have a cascading effect on other fisheries.
Years ago in the late 70's my brother and I would have fisherman come to our door with 35-60# stripers, native strip bass, a prize in this region...they were abundant along the northeast coast, but I haven’t seen one of that weight in over two decades. In fact this is a size limit for keepers; 27", but they are still juvenile fish, maybe 2 years old. The species may never recover.
So, for the sake of argument, what happen to the Irish in the 19th century?
The forced famine they experienced resulted in the complete decline of the Entire shellfish population around the island. They destroyed the whole of the fisheries because that severed the food chain.
Salmon are a basic element and predator in the oceanic chain.
Utah Bob
02-05-2010, 15:47
Sure, and if we really got into a bind we could always manufacture some green stuff to eat ...
I think I saw that in a movie once.
I'll have some with not so much turban in it thanks.
This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.Malthus was right, I guess...
Take a look...many of the fish currently marketed heavily in your corner grocery store were not so popular 20 years ago. I.e., orange roughy, rockfish, sea bass, etc. The technology and scale of commercial fisheries today is staggering - fishing fleets now have the ability to "clear cut" the ocean in places, and that is exactly what they are doing to satisfy demand.
Not so big a deal when you are talking about an easily renewable resource, but some of the fish we enjoy today have reproductive cycles measured in decades.
I am doing my part by purchasing only farm-raised fish.
dr. mabuse
02-05-2010, 18:24
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Scimitar
02-05-2010, 21:38
Manufactured alright!
On my second day in the US, I saw 2 for 1 Twinkies at the gas station. I got a little excited as I had never tasted these little treats so often talked about in the movies and such.
I bought two while explaining this to the teller, who l now realize was looking at me like "Where the hell are you from".
Shortly afterwards I am driving along tearing into the child proof packaging and quickly stuffed one in my mouth. It took my body half a second to tell me that what I had just started masticating was not actually food and that I should expel it forth with. Unfortunately this was my first experience at driving on the wrong side of the road and so out of reaction instead of spitting it out the window I spat it into the passenger seat. I guess it's an acquired taste.
The joys of being the frekin foreign guy. :D
But I digress...yeah the food thing...it scares the hell out of me...I love seafood!
S
Defender968
02-06-2010, 15:11
This has a direct effect on all of us, but I fear its the begining of a rapid depletion of all fisheries and will result in runs on other protien resources as well. This biosphere can not support 6Bn + people.
http://www.commerce.gov/NewsRoom/PressReleases_FactSheets/PROD01_008806
U.S. 308,624,152
World 6,800,900,489
18:00 UTC (EST+5) Feb 05, 2010
Penn I hope I can help calm some of your fears. While I share some of your concern over the number of people on earth this particular issue does not scare me too much and here's why. My wife is a marine biologist and her field within marine biology is sustainability and the management of fisheries. I read the article and then had her read it because. Her take is this,
First within the article, this stood out to her,
Although the reasons for the decline of Chinook salmon are not completely understood, scientists believe they are predominately natural. Changes in ocean and river conditions, including unfavorable shifts in temperatures and food sources, likely caused poor survival of Chinook salmon.
The reason this is important is that there are peaks and troughs in fish populations that are normal within the natural world, it just happens, the key to it is what we do once we recognize we're experiencing a bad year/years. Now that ties into her second point.
Her second point is that Alaska has the best managed fisheries in the entire world, the fact that they have closed the fishery shows that they are aware of the problem and are doing what is necessary to preserve the fishery and help it to recover.
There are big issues with fisheries today around the world, especially in Asia where they are over fishing and it is possible they will do irreparable damage to the fisheries, but here in the US we have good fishery management and regulations that actually work. Sword fish, striped bass, and scallops are all good examples of once depleted populations that through strong effective fisheries management regulation have brought back up to healthily levels. Now that is not to say that there are not fisheries here in the US as well as globally that are in trouble, but this particular issue/crisis mainly effects those subsistence fishermen in Alaska, and it's not something that is going to have a cascading effect, it will have other effects on the local economy and the local ecosystem, specifically bears in the area may struggle due to the lower numbers of salmon available to them, but overall the only real large scale issue this will present is possibly influencing the price of salmon higher.
Hope this helps.
Defender968
02-06-2010, 15:38
Take a look...many of the fish currently marketed heavily in your corner grocery store were not so popular 20 years ago. I.e., orange roughy, rockfish, sea bass, etc. The technology and scale of commercial fisheries today is staggering - fishing fleets now have the ability to "clear cut" the ocean in places, and that is exactly what they are doing to satisfy demand.
Not so big a deal when you are talking about an easily renewable resource, but some of the fish we enjoy today have reproductive cycles measured in decades.
I am doing my part by purchasing only farm-raised fish.
Good to hear Jatx, but be careful on the farm-raised fish, depending on where it's farmed it may or may not be particularly sustainable, specifically nearly all fish farmed in Asia has very negative environmental effects due to the way they farm there, specifically the waste that is produced and the ecosystems that are destroyed to build fish farms, they are doing some pretty bad damage to their local waters via fish farming in much of Asia which in turn hurts the local wild fish populations.
If it's farmed here in the US you have a pretty good chance that's it's going to be sustainable.
Currently there is a tremendous demand for fish and cheep fish at that, both here in the US and in Asia especially, which is leading to substantial pressure on fish populations, if you can buy local, if you can't buy local i.e. too far from the coast try to buy US caught, as I said before we have some of the best managed fisheries in the world.
Also if anyone needs more info on specific species of fish to know if it's sustainable please feel free to shoot me a message, a part of my wife's job is to help educate the public and if this is another venue to do that I'm happy to help.
Just FYI one species Jatx mentioned that I can guarantee is not sustainable is Orange Rughy, not only because of the demand for it but more importantly because it takes 20-30 years to reach sexual maturity and are caught with trawl nets in deep water which means they are clear cut and since they are deep water fish anything that is brought up likely won't survive even if it's to small to keep and thrown back overboard.
Chef Penn brings up a good point. Once upon a time, many fish were easily available - a current example being the Chilean Sea Bass. Rather expensive now, isn't it? That's due to massive over-fishing. About 45 years ago, one could get TV dinners with Icelandic Cod and Haddock. Try one of them now. Then again...maybe you shouldn't. :D
The overall problem is discussed in Catton's book titled Overshoot. We simply have too many people to feed in the long term. The global fisheries are just one example.
While it is tempting to look at grain production and dismiss food shortages, one might wish to examine what this abundance requires. Among other things, we need potash, nitrogen fertilizers, and, often, irrigation. Potash is mined, and is finite. Nitrogen fertilizers, such as ammonium nitrate, require energy to produce. Global aquifers are in decline. If I may digress, there is an interesting correlation between water supplies and global flash-points, with Kashmir coming to mind as a case in point.
We tend to believe that the world we live in is a constant. It has always been the way we experience it now, and therefore it cannot change. But if we look at some of the realities underlying our present abundance, our outlook might be less sanguine. The world has experienced famine often in the past. Are we now exempt? Is our technology so robust that it will never fail us?
Sure. It's all good. Technology never breaks.
Thank you and your wife for taking the time to quite my concerns on this question.
I've attached a simple graph outline population density; it does not show the past 14 years and I do not have access to recent info on population. But from a wholesale/retail perspective I can state this. The price of "Wild"salmon is in the low double digits. It has been on a progressive climb for the past 5 years. My instincts tell me the tread will escalate continually until such time that it is prohibited to fish, or is too expensive to buy, but recovery to former level of hundreds of millions of fish....
Edit to add:The Columbia River salmon population is now less than 3% of what it was when Lewis and Clark arrived at the river...On salmon fisheries /Wikipedia
Just FYI one species Jatx mentioned that I can guarantee is not sustainable is Orange Rughy, not only because of the demand for it but more importantly because it takes 20-30 years to reach sexual maturity and are caught with trawl nets in deep water which means they are clear cut and since they are deep water fish anything that is brought up likely won't survive even if it's to small to keep and thrown back overboard.
Correct, they are slow to mature and spawn very irregularly. Lifespan is estimated to be around 100 years. Once we finish eating them, they are gone for good - these populations cannot bounce back.
Animal8526
02-08-2010, 08:44
how wonderfully painful that so few members of our species can cognitively recognize we are willfully making species after species go extinct. there aren't new ones evolving as fast as we kill the old ones...
what species will we allow to survive? pigs, cattle, cows and chicken I guess.
Oh, and dogs. I think we'll push the big red button before we start eating our dogs wholesale.
armymom1228
02-08-2010, 10:27
Correct, they are slow to mature and spawn very irregularly. Lifespan is estimated to be around 100 years. Once we finish eating them, they are gone for good - these populations cannot bounce back.
Well they can, if we put a moratorium on catching them period.
25 yrs ago I could go out into the Gulf of Mexico to the middle grounds and fill a 200 gallon cooler in a few hours. Go home filet the catch and freeze it. I would not go out again until I had emptied the freezer. Same with scallops. We would jump off the boat with a bucket and catch them by hand. Again we could load up the back end of a 24 foot open fishing boat, go home shuck and freeze. If I were to try this now, I would have to be there ALL day to get half the cooler. Its both declining fish populations that occur in natural cycles and over fishing.
The state of fla has a closed season on grouper in effect now that helps to bring back the populations. I doubt I will ever see the historic populations again, but we can at least try to keep the species stable. I am lucky in that I prefer the various varieties of snapper. Hog and yellowtail being a favorite.
Because the ultra cold weather we have a moratorium at the moment on bonefish, snook, and tarpon factsheet on that moratorium current hotsheet on fla fishing. (http://www.myfwc.com/docs/RulesRegulations/HotSheet_FEBRUARY2010.pdf)
Living up along the Cheseapeake I was appalled to see the huge mounds of she crabs at the SE fish markets in DC. Then have to listen to the Chessie residents whine about the declining crab populations. If Maryland and Virginia were to bann the catch of she crabs I think that the area would see a return to historic levels in 10 or so years. But they won't and that is a shame, until it is either too late or there has to be a yrs long moratorium period, to bring back the crabs to a sustainable pop.
While I admit to just being an interested party with regards to the fish issue here in Fla I can tell you that the January cold snap, besides creating record lows for temp and length around the state, created some record fish kills offshore and havoc in the Everglades itself. [/url] saltwater fishing (http://myfwc.com/RECREATION/Saltwater_index.htm)
fishing homepage (http://myfwc.com/Fishing/Index.htm) at MyFWC.com
Dozer523
02-08-2010, 11:36
If you can laugh about depleted wild Salmon and think farm raised is the same thing, then you clearly have never tasted fresh Copper River Salmon. If the Salmon goes, you might as well say 'bye bye" to all the bears too.
(Actually saw a study that linked salmon parts in bear feces as critical to the growth of much of the flora too.)
Well. as long as they make Solent Pink for Fridays during Lent.
craigepo
02-08-2010, 12:03
When I was at Ft. Lewis, we had a great salmon and cutthroat run, through post, on the Nisqually river. We had a smoker behind the barracks---good freaking chow.
The only problem with the runs was that the local tribes were allowed to run a lot of gill nets 1/2 way across the river. I remember lots of times they wouldn't run their nets, and there would be a ton of rotting fish in the nets. Don't know if that still happens or not, but seemed pretty wasteful.
If you can laugh about depleted wild Salmon and think farm raised is the same thing, then you clearly have never tasted fresh Copper River Salmon.
I was lucky enough to catch a 29 lbs Spring Chinook on the Willamette two years ago - best fish I have ever tasted, just incredibly rich!
mark46th
02-08-2010, 14:33
Sooooo, I suppose this means I have to take the Dupont lures out of my tackle box?
I was lucky enough to catch a 29 lbs Spring Chinook on the Willamette two years ago - best fish I have ever tasted, just incredibly rich!
jatx, the Willamette is a pretty polluted river, especially around the Portland area. I think it was ranked 17th or so a few years ago, maybe higher. Sewage runs into it during heavy rains when the drains are overwhelmed. Several Superfund sites are along it's banks in North Portland.
I understand salmon spend most of their life in the oceans, but I wouldn't eat anything out of the Willamette.
GratefulCitizen
02-08-2010, 16:46
While it is tempting to look at grain production and dismiss food shortages, one might wish to examine what this abundance requires. Among other things, we need potash, nitrogen fertilizers, and, often, irrigation. Potash is mined, and is finite.
Who exports the most potash per capita?
Who has the greatest reserves of potash per capita?
Such a nation could stand to become quite wealthy in the not-so-distant future.
Let's hope such a nation isn't in a politically unstable region of the world...
:munchin
Who exports the most potash per capita?
Who has the greatest reserves of potash per capita?
Canada, of course. LINK (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash)
Such a nation could stand to become quite wealthy in the not-so-distant future.
Let's hope such a nation isn't in a politically unstable region of the world...
:munchin
Ahh, yes, political instability. Let's hope that Canada isn't in a politically unstable region.
GratefulCitizen
02-08-2010, 19:14
Canada, of course. LINK (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potash)
Ahh, yes, political instability. Let's hope that Canada isn't in a politically unstable region.
Consider that the USA consumes most of Canada's oil (exports), and would likely consume most of their potash (exports).
Who is a very close second (per capita), and where are they located compared to arable land and major world populations?:munchin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Arable_land_percent_world.png
I feel wetadid, cause I can't figure that map out.
Is it saying the US has 15-19 percent farm-able land?
Dozer523
02-08-2010, 22:36
I am hoping you are wrong nmap, however doesn't most of the planet live rather poorly anyhow? Maybe, but that doesn't mean I want to or have to. My ancestors decided that for me 105 years ago in Ireland. (Thanks "Pa".)
I understand salmon spend most of their life in the oceans, but I wouldn't eat anything out of the Willamette.
Yeah I grew up along the Willamette and we found some damned weird things -- frogs with a dozen legs, fish with no eyes -- just scales -- and two
headed things. It was pretty dirty then, I wouldn't eat out of that river either.
mojaveman
02-08-2010, 23:34
With a demand for shark fin soup in some Asian countries I understand that even some species of shark may now be endangered. The practice of 'finning' involves live shark being hauled onto the processing ships where their fins are removed and they are then thrown back into the ocean while still alive. That practice is in the same catagory as clubbing baby Harp seals.