60 Minutes - Yemen & war on Terror

MtnGoat · 01-17-2011, 20:09

60 Minutes did a piece yesterday and I thought it was a good story. Video I felt it shows how when terrorist bases and training camps are located on foreign soil; how a balancing act is played out between two countries. Recent events of foreign governments unable or unwilling to take action against terrorists. It points out the re-orienting military missions and capabilities from establishing strongholds in places like Yemen to launching quick strikes at terrorist sites. Making foreign governments do the wills of others. Brings out any military strike on another sovereign nation's territory brings international political fallout, US intelligence and military officials must be certain about the target and in sync prior to action.

I think if you look at Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen as one of the most urgent threat to U.S. security. Some even say AQAP is a greater threat than the Al Qaeda core in Pakistan. While terrorism knows no borders, we must be mindful of the regional threat of the AQAP threat. This piece shows the evidence that Al Qaeda was building a powerful support base among the tribes. I liked the interviews with the Counterterrorism General, it just shows how messed up this region is.

So, if large-scale military invasions and nation-building are not effective tools of counterterrorism, then how does the US combat terrorism? What are some of the key elements of a global counterterrorism strategy? I do say Al Qaeda has moved to Yemen as a base of support.

Texas_Shooter · 01-17-2011, 22:11

The solution is to not destroy the country like we did with Iraq or Afghanistan but to tell the government that we are going to help them combat the threat of terrorism whether they like it or not. We will use special forces and other unconventional war fighters to combat the terrorist. I have always thought that this is the way to have combat this problem. Take the advice of the General and keep it off the books. Expand to more then just trainers and put boots with guns on the ground. Make sure you leave nobody alive to tell of Americans being there in their country.Either you need to kill and capture everyone that you come in contact with. (Now this next part none of you are gonna like what I say.) But in the case that a team is discovered and captured, Reaper aircraft need to target the team to destroy the evidence of the team.

Now for the comments calling me an idiot.

Wolf07 · 01-17-2011, 23:17

Idiot.

cowboykpy · 01-17-2011, 23:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by scooterdude713

...Take the advice of the General and keep it off the books. Expand to more then just trainers and put boots with guns on the ground. Make sure you leave nobody alive to tell of Americans being there in their country.Either you need to kill and capture everyone that you come in contact with. (Now this next part none of you are gonna like what I say.) But in the case that a team is discovered and captured, Reaper aircraft need to target the team to destroy the evidence of the team.

Now for the comments calling me an idiot.

While my immediate reaction was to say "What movie did you watch to come up with that plan? Seriously WTF are you thinking?", I will say this:

It's disappointing to read your post. We want mature discussion of the topics at hand on this forum. If you cannot abide by the rules on this site, the admins will take what action they deem necessary. A word of advice for someone who wants to join my unit and our Regiment, search more, read more, post less.

cmts58 · 01-17-2011, 23:29

Increased intelligence, first and foremost.

silentreader · 01-17-2011, 23:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by scooterdude713

The solution is to not destroy the country like we did with Iraq or Afghanistan but to tell the government that we are going to help them combat the threat of terrorism whether they like it or not. We will use special forces and other unconventional war fighters to combat the terrorist. I have always thought that this is the way to have combat this problem. Take the advice of the General and keep it off the books. Expand to more then just trainers and put boots with guns on the ground. Make sure you leave nobody alive to tell of Americans being there in their country.Either you need to kill and capture everyone that you come in contact with. (Now this next part none of you are gonna like what I say.) But in the case that a team is discovered and captured, Reaper aircraft need to target the team to destroy the evidence of the team.

Now for the comments calling me an idiot.

Lol at that last line. I've posted too many things on this site knowing they were going to draw criticism, so I tip my hat for you doing it too

.

That being said, I think your scenario is a little idealistic. Other guys on this forum are much more qualified than I am to talk about this sort of thing. But I think that a few major problems jump out, after all; it does sound like an ideal way to handle the terrorist threat, so there must be some reason we're not doing it already, right?

Problems.

a) How do you separate the "terrorist" from the population? Do we only go after foreign fighters in a given country or do we go after anybody with a gun? What's the threshold for defining terrorist? Do they actually have to have attacked the US already, or do they only need to hold anti-US views?

b) How do you maintain secrecy? You say that we will go into countries like Yemen "whether they like it or not." At the same time, you emphasize that secrecy is of such paramount importance that fratricide would be necessary should a team be compromised. How many people in that chain would need to stay silent in order to maintain secrecy- the operators, the intel dorks, the officers, the state department reps, the (possibly coerced) foreign leader, and a whole bunch of guys in the foreign military*. If wikileaks has taught us one thing, it should be that secrecy is poor protection.

c) Won't the locals notice somethings up? Terrorist groups rely on local support for everything from housing to food to wives. If whole camps of people start disappearing in the middle of the night, it's not going to take very long for them to put 2 and 2 together.

d) While US SOF are some of the finest war fighters in the world, they're not ninjas.** In fact, ninjas aren't ninjas, at least as they're portrayed in popular media. Now this gets to the heart of "things I'm not qualified to talk about" territory, so let me put it this way; if there was a cleaner way to capture or kill high value targets, we wouldn't use drone strikes or cruise missiles as much as we do.

War is an ugly thing. Anything that makes it seem like it's not, is a lie. I agree that we can't go around repeating Iraq every time we think a country may be harboring terrorists, but we're not going to be able to assassinate AQ to death either. If you're interested in this issue, I highly recommend the book The Accidental Guerilla. The author is a guy whose seen insurgencies from every angle and thought a lot about how they relate to the problems of international terrorism. Yemen is interesting and dangerous because it is already a society on the brink of collapse. That sort of social turmoil makes it an easy place for real bad guys to keep their heads low.

*The foreign military/intel guys may very well have different agendas from the civilian leadership in their country. Even if we got the green light from, say, Pakistan's civilian government for stuff like this, there's going to be important people in the ISI and the Pakistani Army working against us.

** To all QPs... if you actually are ninjas, let me know!

Defend · 01-18-2011, 01:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by MtnGoat

This piece shows the evidence that Al Qaeda was building a powerful support base among the tribes.

Tribal independence is our strongest ally. Urban Arab communities sway easily in mass movements, but tribes function independently. That being said, two specific examples of the Arab tribes uniting strike me as relevant.

The first was during the 7th Century. The Islamic conquest started by Muhammad garnering enough strength peacefully that we could win a few battles, and eventually they were powerful enough that the tribes had to choose to join the mujahedeen or be defeated by them. The summarized version of the story ends with the tribes of Arabia and North Africa being conquered.

The second was through the influence of T.E. Lawrence. In this case, the threat was from an outside force that could destroy any one of the tribes. His influence led to the united defense of the Middle East, in the best interest of the Arab tribes and the western world.

If there is a third unification under AQ, we are in for a war the likes of which we have not seen. So here is the question: How has Al-Qaeda begun uniting the tribes that have historically functioned as independent and are content to go about their daily lives within the tribe without bothering anybody else? Why are tribes Central Asia to Western Africa accepting AQ into their midst? And what is AQ doing that we aren’t and should be?

I believe it is a matter of effective psychological operations. For example, I recently picked up some Ba’athist propaganda in North Africa – but what does the Maghrebi tribesman care about the ba’ath party? Absolutely nothing! But this is the key – the Maghrebi tribesman knows that the Ba’ath party also cares nothing about him. Neither do any other tribes that aren’t Maghrebi. When nobody cares about your tribe, you realize just how vulnerable you are, and will soon be looking for an advocate.

AQ/Ba’athist connections or lack thereof are completely irrelevant in the mind of the Arab. The only thing that matters is that the US removed the Ba’athist regime, and AQ attempted to remove the US. This makes AQ an advocate for somebody that nobody else cares about. Did you ever stop to ask yourself why the Muslim world likes Obama so much? It’s not because they think he is a Muslim. They think he is a Muslim because they respect him so much. The respect him so much because he doesn’t like Bush! They (at least did) view Obama personally as their advocate – while hating the rest of the US government.

So how do we win the confidence of the tribes and prevent them from uniting under AQ? The US needs to be seen as an advocate of tribes. Here is my take on what needs done, some of it in PC language that a politician or diplomat might actually buy:

1) The US needs to increase support of tribal initiatives across the Islamic world. Funding development projects in unrelated tribes who are not given adequate attention by their own government, and then effectively publicizing those projects and the diversity of recipients.

2) Focus on projects that have HN face time in urban settings, not rural. Keep the government on our side, and keep the urban population on the government’s side. Continue to assist HN governments in countering radicalization and recruitment in urban environments.

3) Establish partnerships between independent populations within the US and tribes. Coal miners of county X in WV can be described to tribe Y in Yemen in such a way as to show their similarities – and the protection that this independent group receives from the US. This will make attacks that hurt county X personal, and establish the US as an advocate of independent tribes. (This is just a concept, would need developed further. And no funding needs wasted on a campaign to make sure every miner in county X is aware he’s a partner of tribe Y!)

4) When tribe Z harbors AQ and strikes a US funded project in tribe Y, encourage the elders to push that story to every tribe in the region. Then ask them what they want done, and then at their suggestion and with as much coverage as possible blow the crap out of terrorists hiding in tribe Z.

5) We need to realize that our actions in one country really do influence, for better or for worse, the populations of a much larger region.

These aren’t magic bullets, but they are the tactics that our enemies are using with success. They are supporting groups nobody else cares about, publicizing it, and when the US takes out their reps in that village they publicize that and retaliate. Suddenly they are the accepted advocates of the tribes, and we are enemies trying to conquer their land and deny them their identity. I'll leave it to others to evaluate the merits of a quiet war being fought in the background, but until we "protect" the tribes, we will continue loosing ground.

-out

Dusty · 01-18-2011, 06:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by scooterdude713

... in the case that a team is discovered and captured, Reaper aircraft need to target the team to destroy the evidence of the team.

Now for the comments calling me an idiot.

PM me for help with the "pink" font app.

JJ_BPK · 01-18-2011, 06:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by scooterdude713

in the case that a team is discovered and captured, Reaper aircraft need to target the team to destroy the evidence of the team.

Now for the comments calling me an idiot.

IDIOT

is an understatement..

I think your stay here will be brief,, but amusing..

Thank you for a unique point of view..

**Pete** · 01-18-2011, 07:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by scooterdude713

...... (Now this next part none of you are gonna like what I say.) But in the case that a team is discovered and captured, Reaper aircraft need to target the team to destroy the evidence of the team.

Now for the comments calling me an idiot.

Why bother with that - most SECRET stuff ends up on the front page of the NYT anyway.

So - yes - you are an idiot - so far. Your next few posts will indicate if you can learn & grow.

Now think captured - short term or long term. Short term has hopes of rescue. Long term? We ain't doing so well locating what's his name - the guy who walked away from his post. So you're saying if we do locate him we should target him?