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Old 04-13-2004, 13:22   #1
Roguish Lawyer
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Let's talk about Iraqi oil

I have not thought this through yet, but gas prices are very high and we are spending an inordinate amount of blood and treasure liberating the Iraqi people. One might argue that this should be partially reimbursed in oil, although there would be PR consequences.

Anyone want to take a position?
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Old 04-13-2004, 14:43   #2
lrd
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Re: Let's talk about Iraqi oil

Quote:
Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
I have not thought this through yet, but gas prices are very high and we are spending an inordinate amount of blood and treasure liberating the Iraqi people. One might argue that this should be partially reimbursed in oil, although there would be PR consequences.

Anyone want to take a position?
Just a quick note while I think about your proposition: I was paying more for diesel in 2000 than I am now.

http://www.itow.org/fuel2000.htm
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Old 04-13-2004, 16:54   #3
Airbornelawyer
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Re: Let's talk about Iraqi oil

Quote:
Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
I have not thought this through yet, but gas prices are very high and we are spending an inordinate amount of blood and treasure liberating the Iraqi people. One might argue that this should be partially reimbursed in oil, although there would be PR consequences.

Anyone want to take a position?
Things to think through first:

1. Are gas prices really that high, on historically weighted terms (hint: inflation adjusted dollars)?

2. Assuming they are higher, at least in the short term, why are they higher?

3. Would "reimbursment" ameliorate this situation? How?

4. Assuming there were tangible benefits of #3, what would be the costs? Not just PR consequences, but things like loss of revenue for Iraqis for their country's reconstruction, etc.
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Old 04-13-2004, 17:22   #4
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Re: Re: Let's talk about Iraqi oil

Quote:
Originally posted by Airbornelawyer
Things to think through first:

1. Are gas prices really that high, on historically weighted terms (hint: inflation adjusted dollars)?

2. Assuming they are higher, at least in the short term, why are they higher?

3. Would "reimbursment" ameliorate this situation? How?

4. Assuming there were tangible benefits of #3, what would be the costs? Not just PR consequences, but things like loss of revenue for Iraqis for their country's reconstruction, etc.
Why are they high?

Speculators and futures markets. Inventories are more than adequate.

Expanding Chinese economy is also increasing international market demand for oil.

Want to lower prices? Can you end futures trading of oil and gasoline?

Why else? Environmental laws.

Want to drop prices? Get back to a few blends of gas with no special state requirements. Create incentives for new refinery construction. Approve limited drilling in the ANWR. Encourage construction of new nuclear power plants to replace fossil fueled generation.

What else?

Develop a fuel cell powered auto and make it practical and affordable. Nail in the coffin of OPEC. The countries would implode as their economies failed.

TR
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De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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Old 04-13-2004, 17:27   #5
Roguish Lawyer
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Re: Re: Re: Let's talk about Iraqi oil

Quote:
Originally posted by The Reaper
Why are they high?

Speculators and futures markets. Inventories are more than adequate.

Expanding Chinese economy is also increasing international market demand for oil.

Want to lower prices? Can you end futures trading of oil and gasoline?

Why else? Environmental laws.

Want to drop prices? Get back to a few blends of gas with no special state requirements. Create incentives for new refinery construction. Approve limited drilling in the ANWR. Encourage construction of new nuclear power plants to replace fossil fueled generation.

What else?

Develop a fuel cell powered auto and make it practical and affordable. Nail in the coffin of OPEC. The countries would implode as their economies failed.

TR
Looks like we have our new energy policy!

Still have the issue of whether Iraq should contribute to the costs of the war . . .
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Old 04-13-2004, 17:43   #6
NousDefionsDoc
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Another hint - look at US refining capacity before you bring over more oil.
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Old 04-13-2004, 17:47   #7
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I thought I mentioned that:

"Create incentives for new refinery construction. "

TR
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"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910

De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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Old 04-13-2004, 17:53   #8
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You did, but as a fix. The refineries are at capacity now from what I have been told - another reason not to take Iraqi oil - we can't do anything with it. Sorry.
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Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimal food or water, in austere conditions, training day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon and he made his web gear. He doesn't worry about what workout to do - his ruck weighs what it weighs, his runs end when the enemy stops chasing him. This True Believer is not concerned about 'how hard it is;' he knows either he wins or dies. He doesn't go home at 17:00, he is home.
He knows only The Cause.

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Old 04-13-2004, 17:56   #9
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http://www.rgj.com/news/stories/html...3/07/65666.php

Gas price surge due to demand and refinery capacity, officials say

Doug Abrahms
RENO GAZETTE-JOURNAL
3/7/2004 10:33 pm
WASHINGTON — Drivers should brace themselves for the kind of price swings at the pump that Californians are seeing, experts say, in large part because there are fewer U.S. refineries trying to keep up with increasing demand for gasoline.

Energy companies have closed more than half of their U.S. refineries since 1981. Oil companies say they closed unprofitable refineries and environmental regulations have made it difficult to build new ones.

But consumer groups and some lawmakers question whether energy companies have closed refineries to stifle competition and increase profit.

High gas prices in Northern Nevada are frustrating area motorists.

The average price of gas in the Reno area Saturday was $2.025 for regular unleaded, $2.135 for mid-grade and $2.213 for premium.

Arjay Rimon is a disc jockey in Reno. He drives a Ford Expedition with a V-8 engine and is paying much more at the pump.

“It’s outrageous, it’s insane,” Rimon said.

He used to spend $50 a week on gas but now spends between $70 and $80. He says he’s spending less money on food and can’t afford to get clothes now because of gas prices.

“Gas is one of the main big things causing us pain. We need to use gas no matter what we do,” Rimon said.

Christy Walde is a single mother attending Truckee Meadows Community College full time and working as an exotic dancer.

She says she gets pretty good gas mileage on her Toyota Celica, but her gas bill has doubled from $10 a week to $20.

“As a dancer I make pretty good money. I’m wondering how hard it is on other single moms,” said Walde, a Reno resident.

Chris Cheeser doesn’t own a car and was borrowing a friend’s Isuzu truck to run some errands for the day. She hasn’t had a vehicle in two years. The last time she pumped gas, prices were about $1.50 a gallon. At the gas station where she where she was, it was $1.93 a gallon.

“I was shocked,” said Cheeser, a Fernley resident. “It’s highway robbery. … It’s ridiculous.”

The result of fewer refineries turning crude oil into gasoline is that any unplanned maintenance, pipeline problem or even routine seasonal changes in gasoline blends can send prices reeling. For example:

* California gas prices have risen 40 cents since Jan. 1 to more than $2 a gallon as refineries cut outflow to switch from winter to summer blends.

* A gasoline pipeline rupture from a refinery caused Phoenix motorists to wait in lines last summer.

* Gas prices shot up 50 cents a gallon in Chicago in 2000 because of refinery problems.

“The smallest problem seems to have a dramatic impact,” said Rayola Dougher of the American Petroleum Institute, which represents oil companies. “We have a system really straining. We need more (refining) capacity.”

Few short-term solutions are on the horizon. Most energy companies have no plans to build U.S. refineries and Shell Oil plans to close one in Bakersfield, Calif., this summer.

The energy bill stalled in Congress offers a few limited incentives to add refinery capacity. An Energy Department spokesman acknowledged the problem but said the agency has no concrete proposals to address it.

David Hackett, an energy consultant for the California Energy Commission, said states could remove regulatory barriers to build refineries. California in particular could offer loan guarantees or other financial incentives for companies to increase storage capacity of gasoline to reduce shortages, he said.

“But there aren’t any near-term solutions,” Hackett said. “Consumer demand has outstripped refinery capacity.”

High prices for crude oil, which is refined into gasoline, has helped push up gas prices about 20 cents a gallon nationwide this year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Regular gas averaged $1.72 nationwide Friday, closing in on a new high for the past 12 months.

But prices spiked even higher in the West as refiners cut back to switch to producing summer blends of gasoline designed to burn more cleanly in warmer weather.

But price spikes also are expected to appear in New York and Connecticut this spring when refiners in those states must begin adding ethanol to their gas mix to replace MTBE, an additive that causes water pollution. Prices could jump by 30 cents a gallon because fewer refineries can make this blend of gasoline and supply bottlenecks could occur, according to the Energy Information Administration.

U.S. Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., last week asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate why gas prices in Nevada have risen so fast and are nearly 30 cents above the national average.

“These sharp increases in gasoline prices are suspicious,” Reid wrote. “I need to assure the citizens of Nevada that gasoline markets are operating properly and not being manipulated to maximize the profits of oil companies.”

Profits nearly doubled in 2003 for the five largest oil companies operating in California and Nevada — including Chevron-Texaco, BP and Exxon Mobil, according to corporate financial data.

Tom Kloza, an oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, which monitors the industry, expects another price spike nationwide before Labor Day as gas demand grows when motorists take their summer vacations.

“The third quarter is going to be wild,” Kloza said. “The problem with gas isn’t a problem with crude. It’s a problem of domestic refining capability.”

Oil companies cut back refineries in the late 1990s and have enjoyed higher profits and little state or federal oversight, said Charles Langley of the Utility Consumers Action Network in San Diego. The situation is similar to the electricity shortage that hit the West in 2001, when a generator went out of service for maintenance and prices soared.

“It’s as if they tore a page from the playbook of the electricity price gougers,” Langley said. “I think the real problem is we have the situation of where the industry is able to take advantage of tight supply and drive up the price.”

U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., last month asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate Shell Oil’s decision to close the Bakersfield refinery in September and determine whether it will cause further anti-competitive problems on the West Coast.

“To us, what makes this smell is Shell … has apparently made no effort to find a buyer,” Wyden said. “We have evidence that companies have deliberately curtailed refining capacity (in the 1990s) ... as a strategy for boosting profits.”

Shell will close the plant because it was unprofitable and didn’t receive enough oil from the surrounding area to keep operating, said James Frazier, a company spokesman. Shell will increase production at its other plants but makes business decisions based on what’s good for the company and not how it affects the price of gasoline, he said.

The industry blames environmental regulations and new clean air rules for making it too difficult and costly to upgrade old refineries or build new ones.

This year, the Environmental Protection Agency required companies to lower the sulfur content in gasoline, and some plants decided not to make the necessary investment and closed, said Gene Edwards, a senior vice president at Valero, a large refiner. States such as New York will start adding ethanol to their gas, which not all refineries can produce and could require substantial upgrades, he said.

The United States will be forced to rely on more gasoline imports, he said.

“We’re running 100 percent of what’s available,” Edwards said. “There used to be more extra capacity in the system but that’s gone now.”

Reporter Beryl Chong contributed to this story.
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Old 04-13-2004, 18:01   #10
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Quote:
The industry blames environmental regulations and new clean air rules for making it too difficult and costly to upgrade old refineries or build new ones.
DAMN! bird and berry freaks.
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Somewhere a True Believer is training to kill you. He is training with minimal food or water, in austere conditions, training day and night. The only thing clean on him is his weapon and he made his web gear. He doesn't worry about what workout to do - his ruck weighs what it weighs, his runs end when the enemy stops chasing him. This True Believer is not concerned about 'how hard it is;' he knows either he wins or dies. He doesn't go home at 17:00, he is home.
He knows only The Cause.

Still want to quit?
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Old 04-13-2004, 19:50   #11
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BTW, Ambassador Prince Bandar has been hinting around Washington that the Saudis view $25 per barrel as a target equilibrium price, and he expects his government to open the spigots over the summer (probably when they feel it can most inure to the benefit of the royal family).

There are a variety of factors that might lead the Saudis and certain other producers (like the Kuwaitis) to prefer lower prices, some cynical, some practical, so this could happen. Among others, higher oil prices make exploration more profitable, and new deposits could reduce dependence on the Persian Gulf. Also, higher oil prices make extraction in otherwise difficult places like the Gulf of Guinea more feasible and profitable, leading to more investment in places like Equitorial Guinea and Nigeria. Also, many oil sheikhs are diversified - the Kuwaiti royal family is one of the largest shareholders in Daimler Chrysler, a maker of gas-guzzling luxury cars, SUVs and minivans, whose sales suffer when gas prices are high. A more cynical reason to add to the mix is that the Saudi royal family may have no interest in seeing Iraq awash in the oil revenues that could make it a stable democratic role model for the Arab world.

Sen. Kerry might not want to hitch his electoral campaign horse to high gas prices, any more than he has to jobs, in light of the latest numbers and forecasts.
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Old 04-13-2004, 20:48   #12
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Quote:
Originally posted by Airbornelawyer
...the Saudi royal family may have no interest in seeing Iraq awash in the oil revenues that could make it a stable democratic role model for the Arab world.
Seriously, do you have a newsletter I can subscribe to?
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Old 04-13-2004, 21:31   #13
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I second that. Where do I sign?
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Old 04-14-2004, 10:09   #14
Roguish Lawyer
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Quote:
Originally posted by Airbornelawyer
Sen. Kerry might not want to hitch his electoral campaign horse to . . . jobs, in light of the latest numbers and forecasts.
Are you guys busy right now? I assume the answer is yes.
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Old 04-14-2004, 12:24   #15
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Quote:
Originally posted by Roguish Lawyer
Are you guys busy right now? I assume the answer is yes.
In the words of Penn from Under Siege II, "assumption is the mother of all fuckups!", but in this case the answer is yes.
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