Wuhan Coronavirus

[doctom54]

Originally Posted by T-Rock

Here's a study published in the Lancet that details some of the things they found throughout the course of the disease process. Lancet maps out the clinical factors for survival and major clinical courses of symptoms. Also noteworthy: viral shedding lasted 8-37 days......

"Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study"
Link: https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/art...736(20)30566-3

Thanks for the link.
The interesting part to me is the median of 20 days of detectable virus in the survivors.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by doctom54

Thanks for the link.
The interesting part to me is the median of 20 days of detectable virus in the survivors.

Lymphopenia and v slow/weak immune response. Doesn’t bode well for vaccine efforts.

[Penn]

DOCTOM54

The interesting part to me is the median of 20 days of detectable virus in the survivors.

If that is not a weapon grade Bio virus, what is? A 20 day after life of contagion, chernobyl in a petri dish.

[PedOncoDoc]

Originally Posted by Penn

DOCTOM54


If that is not a weapon grade Bio virus, what is? A 20 day after life of contagion, chernobyl in a petri dish.

Persistent viral shedding after recovery from an acute infection is not all that uncommon.

[InTheBlack]

Does "shedding after recovery" imply continued contagiousness?

And the other article said the highest viral load was reached in under 5 days, with an incubation period of 5.1 days. What is the definition of "incubation period?" Is it basically time to highest viral load? Or is COVID-19 unusual in this respect?

How do the above compare with seasonal flu or common cold?

What is "IQR" as a statistical term?

https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/art...736(20)30566-3
>
For survivors, the median duration of viral shedding
was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) from illness onset, but the
virus was continuously detectable until death in nonsurvivors
(table 2; figure 1).

The shortest observed duration
of viral shedding among survivors was 8 days, whereas the
longest was 37 days.

Among 29 patients who received lopinavir/ritonavir and were discharged,
the median time from illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment was
14·0 days (IQR 10·0–17·0) and
the median duration of viral shedding was 22·0 days (18·0–24·0).

The median duration of viral shedding was
19·0 days (17·0–22·0) in patients with severe disease status and

24·0 days (22·0–30·0) in patients with critical disease status.
>


http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...vid-19-viruses

Study highlights ease of spread of COVID-19 viruses
Mar 09, 2020

COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery, according to a virologic analysis of nine infected patients published today on the preprint server medRxiv.

EDIT ADD LINK:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...502v1.full.pdf
Virological assessment of hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 Wolfel


Also, in a study published in today's Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at Johns Hopkins found a median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5.1 days—similar to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2...licly-reported

The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application Free
Lauer2020
...

in terms of viral load. "In SARS, it took 7 to 10 days after onset until peak RNA concentrations (of up to 5x105 copies per swab) were reached," the researchers wrote. "In the present study, peak concentrations were reached before day 5, and were more than 1,000 times higher."

[InTheBlack]

What is the seasonal flu death rate by age bracket, and between healthy people & those with risk indicators?

For example, as of a few days ago, a CDC graph for COVID-19 says 3.6% death rate for ages 60-69. Maybe assume its only 0.36% for "healthy" people.

-- what is the seasonal flu death rate for healthy people, vs 0.1% for all people?

0.36% : 0.1% is 3.6 times as deadly, but apples to oranges.

Maybe its really 0.36% healthy : 0.05% healthy so 7.2 times greater than seasonal, for healthy people.

EDIT: I seem to recall an early report saying 40-50% of deaths had co-morbidity factors.

[Golf1echo]

Another aspect of this situation is rapidly approaching based on recent news across the country-Containment...looks like choices will need to be made for those with interests in multiple locations. Logistics, security and supply relating to being in the right location, the one where you end up being contained in.

[InTheBlack]

The news had a clip from a lady coming off the last ship into home quarantine, saying she was happy to be going back with her family.

None of the newscasters mentioned that quarantine means alone, unless her family is going to stay home all the time as well...

[T-Rock]

Supposedly researchers have identified microscopic features including a unique furin cleavage site that could make the pathogen more infectious than the SARS virus.

"....The new virus spreads much more readily than the one that caused severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS (also a coronavirus), and has infected more than ten times the number of people who contracted SARS......"
"....To infect a cell, coronaviruses use a ‘spike’ protein that binds to the cell membrane, a process that's activated by specific cell enzymes. Genomic analyses of the new coronavirus have revealed that its spike protein differs from those of close relatives, and suggest that the protein has a site on it which is activated by a host-cell enzyme called furin.
This is significant because furin is found in lots of human tissues, including the lungs, liver and small intestines, which means that the virus has the potential to attack multiple organs, says Li Hua, a structural biologist at Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak began. The finding could explain some of the symptoms observed in people with the coronavirus, such as liver failure, says Li, who co-authored a genetic analysis of the virus that was posted on the ChinaXiv preprint server on 23 February2. SARS and other coronaviruses in the same genus as the new virus don't have furin activation sites, he says......"

More here:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00660-x


Edited to add:

"....the flu virus that caused the deadliest recorded pandemic, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, doesn’t even have a furin activation site, says Lijun Rong, a virologist at the University of Illinois in Chicago...."

[mugwump]

Lots of “gain of function” research going on everywhere. And synthetic biology is all the rage! It’s fun! It’s easy!

The emerging porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) requires trypsin supplementation to activate its S protein for membrane fusion and virus propagation in cell culture. By substitution of a single amino acid in the S protein we created a recombinant PEDV (PEDV-S(FCS)) with an artificial furin protease cleavage site N-terminal of the putative fusion peptide. PEDV-S(FCS) exhibited trypsin-independent cell-cell fusion and was able to replicate in culture cells independent of trypsin, though to low titer.

Emphasis mine.

Adding furin cleavage sites is easy and undetectable, contrary to what some are saying.

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...try_and_Fusion

[mugwump]

Scientists in general, and the Chinese propaganda machine in particular, are stomping on the questions surrounding gain of function in the COVID-19 virus.

The Chinese motivation is obvious. Virologists don’t want anything to interfere with their “let no crisis go to waste” message that more research needs to be funded.

So much sciencing.

[mugwump]

And while PragerU is demonetized on ******* for promoting the radical philosophy of responsibility and self improvement, Chinese trolls are flooding the site with posts claiming the virus is a US bioweapon.

We have met the enemy and he is us.

[TOMAHAWK9521]

Welcome to the Pandemic days

https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-d...lobal-pandemic

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...obal-pandemic/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...th/5011587002/

[Golf1echo]

Interesting pod cast from The War Room, Army War College a stand off view point, much of the context I was not aware of.
https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/p...s/spanish-flu/

[Badger52]

Frankly, I think they've done a fair to middlin' job on emphasizing the hand-washing. And I think people get it, RE provisions. (Whether they've done it or not is another matter.)

However, I see a major obstacle in people willing to acknowledge the depth & duration of what is meant by "social distancing." You can look them in the eyes & tell 'em, and you'll get a north-south all day, but they will still be in denial. "Oh, we're a small town (at the confluence of 2 interstates), and it's little Janie's last Spring concert at the HS auditorium, it'll be Ok." Or...

"Let's hold a convention and we'll only invite the "key" 50,000 people to this major metro area and I'm sure the public transport will be fine - we only do it every 4 years... c'mon, what could go wrong?"

It's time to have The Conversation with people who are closest to you & branch out from there. There will come a time when the front porch sign won't say "No Solicitors" - it'll say "Eintritt Verboten." When the schools close and the parent still has to work, it can't mean "Oh, come down to visit with (COPD) Grandma for the day."

Medical insurers get it, and they are known to reli$$h only one thing. Got notified last night that my secondary (who was primary while I worked for our green machine) waives all testing co-pays, telemed visit charges, charges for delivery of Rx's, etc. should the situation warrant. And that industry is the last one to give something away. (There's probably a chunk of that $8.3B carved out for that on the backend but you gotta be alive first to collect, right?)