Disruptive Technology

[LongWire]

History would probably illustrate how misguided that type of thinking would get us IMOO.....

The present US vs Them dynamics point toward a more bleak view... I’m seeing a future that looks more like the movie Elysium. If we continue to feed into an US vs Them view, then at some point we end up being on the them side instead of US. Workers will always be in the them category.....

[Penn]

LW, the rose colored lens did not prevent me from adding another 1k 5.56 to the store.The future is here, EV will represent 50% of the vehicle's on the road in 5 years.

Most will have the capability of automatous control as a standard. Rather than argue about the specifics, a broad brushstroke might be more useful in obtaining a seat at the table of change.

Imo, the Green New Deal was DOA. Presented with a condescending attitude of knowing, rather than a presentation of where AI/Robotics/Nano tech is leading us into a possible new future, one that will impact everything we know.

Love muscle cars, Harley is not going anywhere, but the system of combustion is reaching its end state, which could be 25 years down the road. Collectible cars will always have a place, but the infrastructure to support that system will be reduced by a sizable number. In my mind, I'm in my '74 El darado convertible, Black, white leather interior, crusing down Hwy 89, outside Yellowstone with the sun on my face, and a check in the mail.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by Penn

LW, the rose colored lens did not prevent me from adding another 1k 5.56 to the store.The future is here, EV will represent 50% of the vehicle's on the road in 5 years.

Most will have the capability of automatous control as a standard. Rather than argue about the specifics, a broad brushstroke might be more useful in obtaining a seat at the table of change.

Imo, the Green New Deal was DOA. Presented with a condescending attitude of knowing, rather than a presentation of where AI/Robotics/Nano tech is leading us into a possible new future, one that will impact everything we know.

Love muscle cars, Harley is not going anywhere, but the system of combustion is reaching its end state, which could be 25 years down the road. Collectible cars will always have a place, but the infrastructure to support that system will be reduced by a sizable number. In my mind, I'm in my '74 El darado convertible, Black, white leather interior, crusing down Hwy 89, outside Yellowstone with the sun on my face, and a check in the mail.

Where will the electricity to power 200,000,000 EVs come from?

Who pays for the infrastructure?

TR

[LongWire]

Originally Posted by Penn

Harley is not going anywhere,

By what I’ve been seeing, that’s simply not the case. Harley isn’t selling 30K+ bikes that break down on the regular to the millennials or younger. Harley is losing its demographic, and they don’t really have a direction.

Yes they are making an electric bike, and by all accounts it kicks ass, however sales are not that hot and Harley dealerships aren’t the friendliest to anyone walking in for that bike. That’s how they killed Buell....They are also making a kick ass e bicycle, but try selling one of those to the tribe..... how about the new Adventure bike? Anyone?..... management keeps shuffling..... if Harley expects to stick around they have their work cut out for them.

[Penn]

TR, I think the answer might be a combination of solar , NG, and nuclear energy. Fuel cells as they develop, will increase storage capacity. The real key is can a system be design in the EV that would recharge Lithium batteries while running.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by Penn

TR, I think the answer might be a combination of solar , NG, and nuclear energy. Fuel cells as they develop, will increase storage capacity. The real key is can a system be design in the EV that would recharge Lithium batteries while running.

I agree with your sentiment, but disagree with the practicality of it.

Most EVs need to charge overnight.

Any idea what solar power does overnight?

A large part of the people pushing for EVs abhor nuclear power.

NG is a fossil fuel and is therefore evil to the aforementioned EV fans.

If I cannot leave on a cross-country trip without meticulously planning out the route based on EV charging stations, I would call that in an immature technology.

That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.

YMMV.

TR

[PedOncoDoc]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

I agree with your sentiment, but disagree with the practicality of it.

Most EVs need to charge overnight.

Any idea what solar power does overnight?

A large part of the people pushing for EVs abhor nuclear power.

NG is a fossil fuel and is therefore evil to the aforementioned EV fans.

If I cannot leave on a cross-country trip without meticulously planning out the route based on EV charging stations, I would call that in an immature technology.

That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.

YMMV.

TR

I'd still like to see the calculated MPG if charging with a gas-powered generator...

[FlagDayNCO]

As someone who has an interest in the business, so to speak, New Jersey is a prime example.

The utility companies have played their cards and said they are eliminating fossil fuel electric generation. The state government will make it very expensive to purchase fossil fuel generated electricity and I believe even make it illegal in the future.

You as the customer will not even have that source as a choice. The leftists that have been placed in the leadership roles of all these companies are eliminating what you want. You’ll be left with choices you wouldn’t make.

And that’s across every service, every business, every food producer. EVERYTHING

Does anyone know that there are HUNDREDS of start up companies in every major metropolitan area that have redesigned food growing? Old (and new) warehouses that grow indoors year round. This has been going on for several years. “Oh, they need the farmers in flyover country to feed the leftists in the cities” is being defeated. Not only indoor growing, but advances in everything related to it, from seed to delivery to your door. It’s all being done. It’s very tightly controlled. Not just accelerating growing cycles, but quality, yields and lack of pests/ parasites. No more freezing or torrential rains or droughts to affect crops.

I say that because we as a nation and as a society are experiencing changes on many fronts, not just political.

Last, with so much technology being used to advance this indoor farming, there’s also firm, positive control on deciding where it goes and who gets to eat.

Think about how much freedom you’ll have when you’re not allowed to leave the protected zone... if you want to eat.

Here’s one: https://aerofarms.com/story/

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

I agree with your sentiment, but disagree with the practicality of it.

Most EVs need to charge overnight.

Any idea what solar power does overnight?

A large part of the people pushing for EVs abhor nuclear power.

NG is a fossil fuel and is therefore evil to the aforementioned EV fans.

If I cannot leave on a cross-country trip without meticulously planning out the route based on EV charging stations, I would call that in an immature technology.

That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.

YMMV.

TR

UPS, the largest trucking company in the world, has been buying primarily CNG powered tractors for years now.
The Arizona fleet is mainly CNG.

We have our own fueling stations in the major hubs.
The CNG tractors are slightly cheaper per mile to operate, and the emissions are less than 1/50th the level of the new "clean" diesel tractors.

There are both electric hybrid and CNG package cars being used in small numbers, hard to say which will prove more economical over a life-cycle (tractors have much shorter life-cycles).
The way package cars are used (stop and go) is conducive to electric power, but the tractors most certainly are not.

There is also the case of government meddling.
Tax breaks, grants, expense avoidance, etc...

UPS applies for and gets government grants to buy "clean" CNG tractors that they would've bought anyway.
California restricts which tractors can enter, so UPS just sends our CNG tractors and enjoys a market advantage over our competitors.

Also, the fact that oil fields have had restrictions on flaring natural gas has created an oversupply.
Natural gas was once a waste product in oil production and now must be brought to market instead of being burned.

It's hard to compete with free.

[PSM]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

That is not even considering the trucking industry and heavy vehicles.

YMMV.

TR

Actually, the former CEO of an $19.99 or less retailer that I know and whose products you've all "Seen on TV" suggested that this and the RV market is the place to start. He built his own EV car and doesn't see the efficiency of personal vehicles. But, for OTR trucks, the truck stops are roughly 2 hours apart. If the tractors had common batteries, at every pit stop the batteries could be quickly switched out while the driver was peeing. RVs could have a similar system plus many stay overnight where they could recharge.

Overall, nuclear is the way to go.

[CloseDanger]

I don't know where this goes, but it's cool -

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[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by cat in the hat

If AI/robotics are performing most labor, what do the former human workers do for a living?

This is greatly influenced by tax laws.
If there were no longer tax breaks for capital expenditures (depreciation schedules, etc.) and it was no longer a liability to employ workers (payroll tax, Medicare tax, mandated healthcare, etc.) the economics would quickly change.

Suppose companies were taxed soley on gross revenue, nobody was taxed on earned wages, and companies were given tax breaks only for wages paid.
Suddenly it would become far more profitable to employ many and pay them well.

Technology would only be worth the investment if it increased worker productivity to a level which offset the purchase, maintenance, and deprecation costs.
Investing in recruiting, training, and retaining the best workers would be the best investment (SF probably understands a thing or two about this...).

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by PSM

Actually, the former CEO of an $19.99 or less retailer that I know and whose products you've all "Seen on TV" suggested that this and the RV market is the place to start. He built his own EV car and doesn't see the efficiency of personal vehicles. But, for OTR trucks, the truck stops are roughly 2 hours apart. If the tractors had common batteries, at every pit stop the batteries could be quickly switched out while the driver was peeing. RVs could have a similar system plus many stay overnight where they could recharge.

Overall, nuclear is the way to go.

The top 3 expenses in trucking are (in order): labor, fuel, and tires.
The driving (pun intended) factor in trucking operations is DOT mandated hours of service restrictions.

In short haul local operations, there is definitely a niche for battery or hybrid powered large vehicles, especially in public transportation/busses.
Long haul OTR trucking will be the last place where diesel is displaced.

Long haul trucking involves stuff that is either fast or slow.
The slow stuff is actually two short haul legs with a long leg in the middle where it goes by train and the fast stuff is done with either layover drivers or sleeper team drivers.

Tractor range is the most important factor for layover and team drivers because you don't want to burn driver time (DOT hours of service) refueling.
New technology just doesn't yet have the range to efficiently work within the laws governing driver hours without making the tractors too long or too heavy.

CNG tractors have a space problem, as the tanks are quite bulky.
LNG tractors have been tried and are efficient, but the refueling is complicated/dangerous, distribution infrastructure is sparse, they are prone to leakage issues, and they require three types of refueling: LNG, diesel (for starting/warmup), and DEF (required for emissions if diesel is used).

Battery powered tractors would be severely limited on range unless they had huge batteries.
In that case, they would run into problems with axle weight on the tractor or possibly risk blowing past 80,000lb GVW for the full vehicle, requiring permits and constantly getting flagged to run through weigh stations (which costs driver hours...).

Then there's the issue of maintenance and keeping tractors in service.
Modern tractors, with all the computers and electronics, constantly have to be in the shop.

The suspension must neccesarily be very stiff in order to bear such heavy loads safely.
Over time, electronics get shaken to the point where tractors get gremlins.

Something as simple as an ABS warning light is a serious violation (and potentially very unsafe) if the tractor is taken on road without the problem being corrected.
Electric tractors would likely be even more complicated in this regard, which means more last minute gremlins, and more driver hours lost.

UPS is always trying new technologies and testing them at a reasonably large scale to see if they're economical.
LNG tractors were tried and failed, CNG tractors were tried and work everywhere except in long haul, but electric tractors have yet to be tested large scale.

When you see UPS using all-electric vehicles on a significant scale, the technology is ready.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

When you see UPS using all-electric vehicles on a significant scale, the technology is ready.

Really appreciate you fleshing this out from where the rubber (pun intended) meets the road. This happens to be the carrier in my neck of the woods that blows the others away. As a non-truck-literate consumer, my benchmark is simply that the service level remains. I'd imagine that the issue of remaining an apex predator in that business is a factor in "the technology is ready" decision.

[Last hard class]

The American Dream:

Elysium is a good visual. There is an idea out there that AI will someday squeeze the inefficiencies out of business. Which will dramatically change the investing world. At some point this will cause a break line. You will either be above or below the line. If below, the opportunity to get above will be extremely difficult.

Future transportation:

Don't get caught up in EV's. They are just a gating technology. Building the infrastructure's real problem is the amortization for private enterprise. It may be old technology before it pays itself off. That's where big gov comes in. Think Amazon. The internet was a DT but it was lobbying the Senate to not pay sales taxes like brick and mortars that gave Amazon its true competitive advantage. The Gov has done the same to alternative fuels and now technological advances and economies of scale has lowered the cost of electricity so that's its competitive. But its the technological advances that come from the push that is really key. Once again, don't get caught up in today's costs to build a wind power station for example. The cow is out of the barn.

Those Who lyrics: "Meet the new boss, same as the old boss". Energy companies are going to control energy. In whatever form is being used 50-100 years from now. But you globalist guys already know that.

I think a better question related to social change and future transportation is who is going to own a car? And what does that world look like? Mass amounts of money being poured into driverless vehicles. Uber et al is just scratching the surface. As mentioned, labor is the key. But when achieved for those purposes, you now have an underutilized asset. The personal vehicle. Most of the day it doesn't do anything. That's not optimal. Inefficient. As long as one is waiting in your driveway to take you to your destination, that's what really matters. Uber type software is just laying the foundation. Its called behavioral modification. My kid doesn't drive, doesn't want to.

Imagine a national grid of 200 million cars that no one owns. If you use that as a starting point, you can foresee many possibilities affecting our future social fabric.




LHC