We Are Going To Lose The Coming War With China

[Little Fish]

Originally Posted by Flagg

Elsa B Kania is an academic worth following on the China problem:

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/f...telligence.pdf

Great piece of research

[LongWire]

Originally Posted by Flagg

Small Wars Journal published my US Army Mad Scientist 2030 scenario on China:

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...gital-strategy

Nice work Chris!

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Flagg

Small Wars Journal published my US Army Mad Scientist 2030 scenario on China:

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/ar...gital-strategy

Unfortunately, it’s too tech/jargon heavy, but it’s written a bit like an AAR, with fictional lessons learned, recommendations, and summary at the end.

And inclusion of fictional OD-X, counter network operations by US Army SF.

It covers China(Donovia) absorbing Taiwan(Otso) with barely a shot fired.

China has been operating beneath the public detection threshold, obviating the need for an adversary response.

More Boa Constrictor, less Viper.

More Sun Tzu, less Clausewitz.

More competition, less conflict.

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

China has the critical advantage of of political-military-commercial fusion.

https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-china-blog-48552907

WeChat(owned by Tencent of Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei “BATH”) has become an existential need for every one of its citizen-users.

Will China successfully export BATH to developing world countries creating a digital economic platform/network to compete with and supersede the US Dollar based global economy?

Recent efforts by the US to kneecap Huawei across Five Eyes/NATO, while thus far less successful, are akin to the US expending a lot of political capital disrupting the proposed Soviet energy pipeline to NATO customers right after President Reagan was elected.

The Reagan Administration disrupted Soviet income streams, I reckon we have to compete/defeat Chinese political-military-commercial fused Metcalfe’s Law fuelled network effects.

Or we risk coming in 2nd place.

And when Zipf’s Law applies, 2nd place is distant and permanent.

Finest Kind!

Sine Pari

[mojaveman]

Originally Posted by Dusty

...their ground troops break for chow every hour on the hour, as well.

Recently spent six months in China and got a pretty good look at the male population to include some of the military. They're not aggressive competitive like western men are and they lack initiative. In a time of conflict they would probably make good cooks, laundry men and logistic coolies but not great warriors.

[PSM]

Originally Posted by mojaveman

Recently spent six months in China and got a pretty good look at the male population to include some of the military. They're not aggressive competitive like western men are and they lack initiative. In a time of conflict they would probably make good cooks, laundry men and logistic coolies but not great warriors.

The Chinese seem to agree with your observation:

‘Masculinity crisis’ in China leads parents to enroll boys in Boot Camp

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by PSM

The Chinese seem to agree with your observation:

‘Masculinity crisis’ in China leads parents to enroll boys in Boot Camp

Heh, I can think of many environs in this country that could benefit from such a thing.

But hey, don't mention this to the alphabet agencies with their tenterhooks into the MICO - reduced threat? They will drive you out of town, tarred & feathered - don't mess with that rice bowl.

[Golf1echo]

Originally Posted by Box

Its been a while since I read Sun-Tzu, but according to some of his writings, I'd say we've already lost.

What is it that we would win? Land...no nation in history has conquered, maintained, and administered such a large area as our two countries. The population...inherent their massive population and the issues that go with it. Economic Power... go to your tool shed, your children’s toy box or any closet in your house and look at where most of the items there are made.

Many here understand chinas reach elsewhere in the world, it’s successes and it’s failures.

A Microwave Society is as good of a description as any as to our current perspective... For us, a country heading towards 300 years of existence, I think of perspective and one story from the pages of history may be a good example of chinas perspective:
http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/specia...ingvoyages.htm


China will ebb and flow based on what happens in china, I suspect they have plenty of pressures of their own. When they have a presence in practically every life around the world, can send their students to the best universities, can place people in most any corporation, can take development and product from anywhere, dictate most markets, etc... what would be their point to an armed conflict...

My point, China’s problem is China, it always has been and always will be.

[Streck-Fu]

How good is Chinese tech, really, if they can't effectively reverse engineer tech? How good can their weapons systems be?

LINK

The Royal Jordanian Army and Air Force (RJAF) is attempting to sell more than two dozen aircraft, including six recently delivered Rainbow CH-4B unmanned air vehicles (UAV) built by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC).

.........

However, its six CH-4B UAVs were reportedly delivered about two years ago. The RCAF told Shepard Media in November 2018 it was not happy with the aircraft’s performance and was looking to retire them.

CASC has been accused of copying the design of General Atomics Aeronautical Systems' MQ-9 Reaper UAV, due to the CH-4B’s close resemblance. Nonetheless, many countries in the Middle East have chosen to buy what critics call “knock-off” Chinese UAVs because the Missile Technology Control Regime restricts the USA to exporting its large, fast-moving UAVs to only its closest allies.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Golf1echo

What is it that we would win? Land...no nation in history has conquered, maintained, and administered such a large area as our two countries. The population...inherent their massive population and the issues that go with it. Economic Power... go to your tool shed, your children’s toy box or any closet in your house and look at where most of the items there are made.

Many here understand chinas reach elsewhere in the world, it’s successes and it’s failures.

A Microwave Society is as good of a description as any as to our current perspective... For us, a country heading towards 300 years of existence, I think of perspective and one story from the pages of history may be a good example of chinas perspective:
http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/specia...ingvoyages.htm


China will ebb and flow based on what happens in china, I suspect they have plenty of pressures of their own. When they have a presence in practically every life around the world, can send their students to the best universities, can place people in most any corporation, can take development and product from anywhere, dictate most markets, etc... what would be their point to an armed conflict...

My point, China’s problem is China, it always has been and always will be.

Solid post.

I agree.

Chinese leadership in its current CCP form will always have the Tiananmen Square monkey on its back and the need to keep the people happy pursuing their Chinese versions of the American Dream.

The recent Hong Kong protests against extradition law with China were staggering. As many as a quarter of Hong Kongers participated in the wake of Tiananmen 30th.

My guess is CCP will run China with an eye towards Net Promoter Score(NPS) like a corporation gauging customer satisfaction to remain in business.

My concern is China facing an inevitable economic hiccup(it can only artificially manage internal markets so long) resulting in leadership externalising rising anger akin to Argentina in the Falklands circa 1982 but with a 1983 Grenada end-state.

Personally, I think the best response to China should involve increased optimisation for competition over conflict.

I think the US has conflict(warfighting) right, although there’s always room for improvement.

But China’s non kinetic integrated CCP / PLA / .CA “combined arms competition” needs a response that we are not currently deploying.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Streck-Fu

How good is Chinese tech, really, if they can't effectively reverse engineer tech? How good can their weapons systems be?

LINK

While they might look the same on the outside, it’s what’s inside that matters.

DJI is building extremely impressive small form factor COTS drones.

China will move up the capability food chain.

Shenzhen hardware prototyping is faster than a Formula 1 pitstop.

And with AI and quantum, what’s in open source is showing China making some serious advances.

Hopefully DARPA/NSA/NRO/In-Q-Tel have a deck of wildcards up their sleeves.

Maybe it’s another Bomber/Missile Gap with the US actually light years ahead, but why chance it when China has the cash, the raw human horsepower, and the national will to become a global power.

China’s no Soviet Russia, that’s for sure.

[Fonzy]

Originally Posted by Streck-Fu

How good is Chinese tech, really, if they can't effectively reverse engineer tech? How good can their weapons systems be?

LINK

For consideration:

It won't matter if theirs is only 75% as good as ours when they have quadruple as many.

[Little Fish]

Greetings people. I love reading your posts.
I think there needs to be a clear definition of "war" and would love if one of you eloquent gentlemen would try to give me one.
In my country most of the university students are paid up Chinese whose parents have bought them housing in Sydney and Melbourne. This has caused a housing crisis.
The stupidity goes further. As well as the Chinese owning massive tracts of land and some of our water, we have leased the Port of Darwin to them for 99 years. Darwin is where your 19000 Marines are stationed.
Awfully confusing and confronting.

BTW The USS WASP is in Sydney at present.
We are inextricably interwoven.