http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/americ...all/index.html
Recall vote: Chavez claims victory
Monday, August 16, 2004 Posted: 9:46 AM EDT (1346 GMT)
CARACAS, Venezuela (CNN) -- Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, has claimed victory in a popular referendum to oust him.
Initial results after 94 percent of the more than 8.5 million votes had been counted showed about 58 percent voted to keep Chavez in office while 42 percent favored ousting him. Opposition leaders rejected the results as a "gigantic fraud."
The result -- if confirmed by final results expected to be announced later on Monday -- means the leftist populist president can complete the remaining two years of his term.
World oil prices promptly fell from fresh record highs with the result easing fears that unrest could upset the country's oil exports. (Full story)
U.S light crude oil for September fell to $46.33 a barrel at 1000 GMT Monday, down from an early peak of $46.91. London Brent was down to $43.35 a barrel.
Shortly after the announcement in Caracas by election commission chief Francisco Carrasquero, a triumphant Chavez appeared on the balcony of the presidential palace as thousands of flag-waving and cheering supporters appeared below.
"Long live the constitution ... of Venezuela," Chavez said. "Long live the Venezuelan people. What a great victory."
Carrasquero did not declare Chavez the outright winner of Sunday's referendum. But vote counts he released -- 4,991,483 against Chavez's recall and 3,576,517 in favor -- indicated an insurmountable lead.
The opposition vowed they would contest the outcome though. "We firmly and categorically reject the result," opposition leader Henry Ramos Allup told a news conference.
"We're going to collect the evidence to prove to Venezuela and the world the gigantic fraud which has been committed against the will of the people."
CNN's Karl Penhaul said many opposition supporters were in tears at their apparent defeat and that it was possible some would take to the streets in protest.
The verdict of international observers, including former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, could be key to whether stability is restored.
They praised the voting Sunday but on Monday had yet to give their final verdict on the referendum.
"With the sides now so polarized, a decision either way could trigger unrest," Credit Suisse First Boston analyst Jan Dehn said in a research note Monday according to Reuters.
Millions had turned out on Sunday to weigh in on Chavez's rule -- prompting voting hours to be extended twice.
Voting was first extended from 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. (0000 GMT), but with thousands of people lined up to cast ballots on whether to keep Chavez in office, officials extended balloting until midnight.
Chavez, a former army officer, was elected president in 1998 with overwhelming support of the country's poor, but many people in the middle and upper classes call him a budding tyrant.
They accuse him of steering Venezuela toward communism and of riding roughshod over the nation's democratic institutions.
Social reforms
The country has been wracked by anti-Chavez demonstrations for more than a year, and opponents managed to collect enough signatures to force a recall vote in June.
But for Chavez to be recalled, at least 3.76 million Venezuelans needed to have voted to remove him -- the number of votes the former paratrooper won in 2000, when he was re-elected to a six-year term.
Analysts had said the opposition faced an uphill battle with estimates showing that only 4 to 5 million of the nation's 25 million people were vehemently anti-Chavez. Opponents collected 2.4 million signatures to force the recall vote.
Carter, whose Carter Center was among international groups monitoring the referendum, called it "the largest turnout I have ever seen."
Larry Birns, director of a Washington-based think-tank called the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, said Chavez's support was centered among the 18 million to 19 million Venezuelans who were poor.
Chavez, who led a 1992 coup attempt before being elected president, has used the recent rise in oil prices to offer a welter of new social services to the majority poor in the nation, which is the world's fifth-largest exporter of oil.
Those services include education, health care and subsidized food.
He was ousted in a 2002 coup that his supporters blamed on the United States -- an allegation Washington denies -- but he returned to power within days when the opposition collapsed.
CNN Correspondents Lucia Newman and Karl Penhaul contributed to this report.