Current Unrest

[Roguish Lawyer]

Please do not post in this thread if you have no military, intelligence or diplomatic background. Two related topics:

1. Does anyone believe that our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have anything to do with the current unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern states? Specifically, are Egyptians and others motivated to seek regime change in part because they saw the Iraqis liberated from Saddam and want the same? If so, does this validate our decisions to depose Saddam, etc.?

2. If Mubarak and others like him are deposed in favor of elected governments, do you think we'll see relatively liberal Western-style regimes or is this just an opportunity for Salafi jihadists to seize power from the resultant power vacuum?

[Pete]

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

.....2. If Mubarak and others like him are deposed in favor of elected governments, do you think we'll see relatively liberal Western-style regimes or is this just an opportunity for Salafi jihadists to seize power from the resultant power vacuum?

As I have pointed out with Turkey - I think the voters will vote themselves into oppression within a few election cycles.

It is not the election itself - but what the elected do with it. Packing the courts, replacing the key leaders in the centers for higher leading, replacing the military leaders - all with a goal of cementing them in power.

This will be a slow process measured over years, maybe a decade or more.

The key will be to see the direction of drift - not what you hope to see.

[ZonieDiver]

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

Please do not post in this thread if you have no military, intelligence or diplomatic background. Two related topics:

1. Does anyone believe that our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have anything to do with the current unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern states? Specifically, are Egyptians and others motivated to seek regime change in part because they saw the Iraqis liberated from Saddam and want the same? If so, does this validate our decisions to depose Saddam, etc.?

2. If Mubarak and others like him are deposed in favor of elected governments, do you think we'll see relatively liberal Western-style regimes or is this just an opportunity for Salafi jihadists to seize power from the resultant power vacuum?

Here goes:

1. I posited this in my classes yesterday, and with some of my "colleagues" as well (most of whom are very, very anti-Bush). My colleagues, for the most part, rejected it - primarily based on their opinion of Bush. My students were more open-minded, with some actually thinking about the possibility.

I don't think you can separate the two. If you do, I don't know on what basis you would be able to advance that position. There may be a tenuous link, but there is a link.

Does it validate our decision to depose Saddam? We'll see. (I think that will depend a great deal on #2!)


2. I think we may see democratically elected governments that initially pursue a moderate course, but in the long-run (or even the not-so-long run) it will end up as Pete has said. In that case, we may long for the "good old days" when Saddam was in power and things were as they were throughout the region(s).

[Peregrino]

Does anybody remember the Shah? Personally, I think our current administration has an excellent opportunity to repeat history on a much larger scale. In fact, indications are that's all they're competent to do. Given that there's 35 additional years of repressed (sorta) Islamist agitation, I suspect it'll be the metaphorical equivalent of Yellowstone letting loose.

On the bright side - it's making all the 2012 predictions look tame. Might even be enough to incentivise us to achieve energy independance.

[Richard]

2. If Mubarak and others like him are deposed in favor of elected governments, do you think we'll see relatively liberal Western-style regimes or is this just an opportunity for Salafi jihadists to seize power from the resultant power vacuum?

Radical political religion will soon shape the Mideast

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition...deast-1.340271

Do Egyptians want both democracy and a role for religion in their government?

http://onfaith.washingtonpost.com/on...?hpid=talkbox1

Beware Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-a...m-brotherhood/

Don't Fear Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-a...houldnt-worry/

And so it goes...

Richard

[lindy]

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

Please do not post in this thread if you have no military, intelligence or diplomatic background. Two related topics:

1. Does anyone believe that our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have anything to do with the current unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern states? Specifically, are Egyptians and others motivated to seek regime change in part because they saw the Iraqis liberated from Saddam and want the same? If so, does this validate our decisions to depose Saddam, etc.?

2. If Mubarak and others like him are deposed in favor of elected governments, do you think we'll see relatively liberal Western-style regimes or is this just an opportunity for Salafi jihadists to seize power from the resultant power vacuum?

RL,

1. No, IMO, OIF & OEF are simply distractions for the current administration. I believe that the US missed an opportunity because we did not have a contingency plan for a Mubarak replacement because of focus elsewhere. Is this a grass-roots level movement without ANY outside intervention by a state-sponsor?
a. ) Would any nation (let's say, oh I don't know, I'm just spitballing here, Russia ) benefit by regime change in Egypt? Who would benefit by a new anti-US Egypt?
b. ) Who would benefit by a large scale disruption of oil flowing through the Suez? (Russia perhaps?)

2. IMO, Middle East Islamic countries will never allow a democratically elected government. Democracy and Islam...never the two shall meet.

I believe AQ or an offshoot will (if not already have) take advantage of the power vacuum. Perhaps not for running the country but for establishing caches, safe houses, identity documents, border crossings, etc. Anyone remember what happened after Albania collapsed?

Has Obama come out with "the crisis was a result from the previous Administration" yet?

[uplink5]

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

Please do not post in this thread if you have no military, intelligence or diplomatic background. Two related topics:

1. Does anyone believe that our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan have anything to do with the current unrest in Egypt and other Middle Eastern states? Specifically, are Egyptians and others motivated to seek regime change in part because they saw the Iraqis liberated from Saddam and want the same? If so, does this validate our decisions to depose Saddam, etc.?

2. If Mubarak and others like him are deposed in favor of elected governments, do you think we'll see relatively liberal Western-style regimes or is this just an opportunity for Salafi jihadists to seize power from the resultant power vacuum?

1. Yes, I have no doubt that many throughout the Middle-East felt they too could benefit from regime change. In part because of the example Iraq, and to a lesser extent Afghanistan has provided. Right now though, with Lebanon and Tunisia's recent examples to look upon, these other uprisings appear to be grass root inspired and spontaneous attempts to force an election process to produce a representative government. Unfortunately, these are not necessarily the desires of the majorities. For example, most Egyptians are not necessarily in search of democracy though they do share some western views such as a strong press, and judiciary. Ultimately extremist groups will make their moves so, what perhaps started out as honest attempts to herald democracies, could backfire on all of us. In Egypt, a recent poll suggest that as many as 65% feel they should live under Sharia Law. This could get really ugly real fast.

More Egyptian poll results here:

All of this looks extremely bad for Israel. I feel that even best case scenarios, such as if Egypt avoided throwing in with Al Qaeda, would still have Egypt returning to the pre Camp David war footing between Egypt and Israel, now with Egypt armed by the US. Boy, I can't help but feel we're potentially really screwed, and there is NOTHING we can, or are doing about it.

2. Yes and Yes. If this reaches its potential, with moderate Arab nations and all parties vying for control, some may produce Liberal Western-style regimes but, they probably will not last long. There will be much more unrest before anything is settled, especially if the extreme Mullahs have more sway than the moderates, which they likely do. I believe we're seeing the early stages of regime change which could go well at first but, will sooner than later devolve, and not to our liking. The worst part for the US is we have no means to affect and or influence at all how these changes are made. This administration ignored the warnings and was caught completely off guard with the VP, Dept of State, and himself contradicting US policy over whom or what we support. Also, thi administration's Muslim outreach BS has done nothing but show us as weak, indecisive, and out of touch with reality. Incredibly, they even legitimized the Muslim Brotherhood while also throwing Mubarack under the bus, now all our moderate allies are seen as vulnerable. All Sunni moderates are now effectively in the crosshairs. Lebanon, Tunisia, Egypt, perhaps Jordan, and Yeman. How long could the other moderates such as the emerites and Saudis hold out if this continues?

Hate to be a killjoy but, game of RISK anyone?....jd

[silentreader]

Not going to reply with my own thoughts due to RL's request, but this article comes pretty close to directly discussing #2.

[uplink5]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Not going to reply with my own thoughts due to RL's request, but this article comes pretty close to directly discussing #2.

This is a nice article, full of hope with all indications that it could be correct. That is until the majority in Egypt eventually have their say. Right now, that outcome is entirely up to chance, with probabilities.

However, people whose lives depend upon a complete handle on realistic situational awareness must be prepared for other possibilities. Possibilities, and dare I say probabilities that border the EXTREME. Fact is we COULD ultimately be witnessing an Arab version of the Iranian revolution despite what the article would suggest, and not just in Egypt when all is said and done.

The Iranian Revolution started with demonstrations against the Shah which began in January 1978. By February 1979, Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Tehran. It didn't happen overnight and was cirtainly not what the world expected. The revolution lacked the typical causes such as defeat at war, a financial crisis, peasant rebellion, or disgruntled military. Primarily, they ALL just wanted to get rid of the Shah. There was evan talk of elections, which Jimmy Carter decided was a good reason to throw the oppresive Shah, our ally, under the bus. These events produced profound change at great speed around the middle-east and was massively popular. It handed the lavishly financed army and security services to our new enemy and replaced the Shah with a theocracy based on Guardianship of the Islamic Jurists. All too familiar...

IMHO Silentreader Jedi, there is nothing new in the world! We have seen this script before and should not pretend that the potential for a complete disaster is not well established within the realm of reality. I'd suggest we leave the hopeful scenarios to the press since THAT is what THEY do....jd

[Pete]

Originally Posted by silentreader

Not going to reply with my own thoughts due to RL's request, but this article comes pretty close to directly discussing #2.

You have found an article and posted it....

".......Their grievances are aimed squarely at the repression, cronyism, and stagnation that have smothered the Egyptian people for decades under Mubarak and his regime. Both the weakness and strength of their protest movement lies in the fact that they have no prescribed path forward. Of all the slogans chanted in the streets of Egypt over the last week, the Brotherhood's decades-old cry -- "Islam is the solution" -- has been noticeable mostly for its absence. There are several reasons the Brotherhood has found itself in the background, even though it has stated that the movement supports Mohamed ElBaradei as a symbolic leader of the opposition, and it is steadily becoming more visible in the protests......"

The Brotherhood, like many other Muslim organizations, is very organized - and very skilled at buying the poor folk's vote. In a country where the government is not helping the poor fast enough the Muslim opposition becomes the "man on the corner" helping the destitute in the area. With bread and a little money slipped out here and there the poor will vote for the party.

The Brotherhood is smart and can see the writing on the wall. Their time will come in an election cycle or two.

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/201...cted-by-egypt/

Categorized | Oil & Gas
Iraq Oil Ministry: Exports Won’t be Affected by Egypt
Posted on 31 January 2011.

A leading spokesman for the Iraqi Oil Ministry has said on Monday that the current tense situation in Egypt would not affect Iraq’s oil exports, reiterating that the rise in oil prices would benefit Iraq, according to a report from Aswat al-Iraq.

Assem Jihad said that “the Iraqi Oil Ministry is exporting oil from two outlets, the first in southern Iraq, through the Iraqi terminals on the Arab Gulf and the second from north Iraq, through pipelines passing through Turkey,” adding that “foreign companies are being supplied by oil through those two outlets, according to contracts signed with Iraq.”

Noteworthy is that chaos in Egypt has caused the increase of oil prices, with fears that oil exports through the Suez Canal might be restricted.

---------------------- BT

Having said that, when will the Dinar be re-valued?, and with the Brotherhood gaining momentum, not effect, first Europe and then US.

[alright4u]

Originally Posted by Richard

Radical political religion will soon shape the Mideast

http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition...deast-1.340271

Do Egyptians want both democracy and a role for religion in their government?

http://onfaith.washingtonpost.com/on...?hpid=talkbox1

Beware Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-a...m-brotherhood/

Don't Fear Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-a...houldnt-worry/

And so it goes...

Richard

Why can't Obama just shut up? We have zip to gain and everything to lose.

[Pete]

The Big Bang appears to be over in Egypt. Demonstrations will continue but begin to die down, talks will continue with jabs and pokes from both sides during "talks" but it appears that shortly the real news will be gone from the national stage. Just the warm and fuzzy though about "free elections".

The talking heads will be reluctant to get down in the street and dig up the real story.

The Middle Eastern version of "Community Organizing" has begun. Should not be too hard for a good reporter to find out who is backing the neighborhood "go to" man.

When you ain't got a pot to piss in and somebody promises you a pot.............

What was that saying "One man, one vote, one time..."?

[Pete]

This is an interesting piece focused on pictures from Egypt.

Women in the Cairo Street Scenes: a Troubling Photo Essay

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/news.aspx/142158

".........First, view these photos of Cairo University graduates in 1959, 1978, 1995, and 2004. Clearly, there is a progression—a regression really, in terms of women’s rights. Former women's gains have, increasingly, been washed away. ............"

Any doubt about which way the vote will go?