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Old 01-08-2022, 05:58   #1
Badger52
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Reflections on the Road to Socialism

Some impressions of 'the how' and, importantly, the result RE communism from those who lived in the former Soviet Bloc. Initiated as an exercise to compare events in the US, the impressions might also be interesting to those who've plied that AO and/or those of a certain vintage who've observed the before/during/after of post-WWII commuism.

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My good friend Concerned American at Western Rifle Shooters Association recently wrote to Vlad and me. He wanted to ask our East Bloc contacts who grew up under communism the following question:

ďWhat lessons, if any, can be taken from the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and applied to those of us stuck in the upcoming fall of the US Bloc?Ē

Vlad and I forwarded his message to a number of our translators who have experienced communism. Four of them have replied so far, and more are expected. Iíve collected the first group below.
Stories thus collected so far at the Gates of Vienna blog's website here.

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Old 01-08-2022, 09:44   #2
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^^^^^
Interesting read, this was from report #2

"All communist systems like to place marginalized and untalented people into positions (for example, AOC), where they can take their revenge against their peers. I think this is something you can expect to see at all levels."

AOC is not alone she has lot's of company. I was somewhat surprised that we the U.S. was regarded as having been bullies for the past 70 years. Bullies that pour billions and billions of dollars we really cannot afford into trying to cure the worlds ills.
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Old 01-08-2022, 10:12   #3
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Originally Posted by Badger52 View Post
Some impressions of 'the how' and, importantly, the result RE communism from those who lived in the former Soviet Bloc.

Thanks, I consider myself very fortunate to have acquaintances that think past the incessant jibberish of the Left.
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Old 01-08-2022, 11:14   #4
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Thanks, I consider myself very fortunate to have acquaintances that think past the incessant jibberish of the Left.
That's an interesting take. Sometimes, perhaps, we find it easy to ID the lunatics (because they're incessant flare-poppers) and lose sight or take for granted some folks around us who are a blessing simply because they are really solid folks. They've resisted and are still in their right mind, or their core values were - quietly - so strong that they never had to give it a thought.
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Old 01-24-2022, 13:36   #5
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Prediction: imo, Putin is going to invade, and even money on China acting on its long term goal. Two different AO, Two superpowers acting in concert, the world will change overnight and there is nothing that the west can do to prevent this strategic move.
Especially, after 20 years in SWA and the ME. The west is playing with fire and is about to get burnt.
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Old 01-26-2022, 00:51   #6
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Prediction: imo, Putin is going to invade, and even money on China acting on its long term goal. Two different AO, Two superpowers acting in concert, the world will change overnight and there is nothing that the west can do to prevent this strategic move.
Especially, after 20 years in SWA and the ME. The west is playing with fire and is about to get burnt.
I hold a contrary view.

Russia will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war because going overtly kinetic is really bad for business.

Most Russian export earnings are from energy, and most Russian government income is from energy royalties.

Most Russian energy is exported to the EU.

Most of that is sold to NATO member states, with Germany reliant on Russia for 37% of its energy needs.

The mafia tend to view war, especially involving customers and cash flow, is bad for business.

Very early in Ronald Reaganís first term was a battle to stop NATO from enriching its stated adversary with the proposed Soviet pipeline to Western Europe.

Reagan used up a lot of political capital to successfully disrupt it contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Unfortunately, Reagan didnít win the war, just the battle. The pipeline was only delayed.

Putin is likely to successfully win a battle of a thousand cuts beneath the threshold of conventional war and once again gain primary influence over much of Eastern Europe.

Germany is sitting on the sidelines because they are dependent on Russian energy and were geopolitically dumb and nuke when they shut down their commercial nuclear reactors post Fukushima.

China canít conduct a forcible entry in Taiwan without guaranteeing the destruction. of the Chinese economy, hereís why:

Chinaís biggest single import(more than energy or food) is semiconductors, mostly from Taiwan, with 100% of advanced semiconductors coming from one company in Taiwan, TSMC.

If PLA tried to seize TSMC chip fabs they could be easily and instantly sabotaged or vaporized by a single B2 strike.

They would be left with fabs that produce 0% yield out to infinity or smoking craters and the $350 billion of silicon imports would create at least 10X that in lost economic output, so economic depression.

Thatís why China is investing $100B in silicon and approx the same is being invested in Arizona and Ohio.

For the US and China to eliminate their existential reliance on Taiwanese silicon will take the US 10 years, $500B, and 50K high educated folks with very special skillsets.

China will need twice as long, twice as much, and twice the skilled people(due to lack of semicon equipment ecosystem).

In both cases, Russia and China are likely to stay non-kinetic but keep the tension high beneath the threshold of war.

Beijing Olympic(next week) prestige matters to China, as does the international introduction of the Digital Yuan(at the Olympics).

I believe we are already at war, but warfare that will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war.
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Old 01-26-2022, 06:33   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flagg View Post
I hold a contrary view.

Russia will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war because going overtly kinetic is really bad for business.

Most Russian export earnings are from energy, and most Russian government income is from energy royalties.

Most Russian energy is exported to the EU.

Most of that is sold to NATO member states, with Germany reliant on Russia for 37% of its energy needs.

The mafia tend to view war, especially involving customers and cash flow, is bad for business.

Very early in Ronald Reaganís first term was a battle to stop NATO from enriching its stated adversary with the proposed Soviet pipeline to Western Europe.

Reagan used up a lot of political capital to successfully disrupt it contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Unfortunately, Reagan didnít win the war, just the battle. The pipeline was only delayed.

Putin is likely to successfully win a battle of a thousand cuts beneath the threshold of conventional war and once again gain primary influence over much of Eastern Europe.

Germany is sitting on the sidelines because they are dependent on Russian energy and were geopolitically dumb and nuke when they shut down their commercial nuclear reactors post Fukushima.

China canít conduct a forcible entry in Taiwan without guaranteeing the destruction. of the Chinese economy, hereís why:

Chinaís biggest single import(more than energy or food) is semiconductors, mostly from Taiwan, with 100% of advanced semiconductors coming from one company in Taiwan, TSMC.

If PLA tried to seize TSMC chip fabs they could be easily and instantly sabotaged or vaporized by a single B2 strike.

They would be left with fabs that produce 0% yield out to infinity or smoking craters and the $350 billion of silicon imports would create at least 10X that in lost economic output, so economic depression.

Thatís why China is investing $100B in silicon and approx the same is being invested in Arizona and Ohio.

For the US and China to eliminate their existential reliance on Taiwanese silicon will take the US 10 years, $500B, and 50K high educated folks with very special skillsets.

China will need twice as long, twice as much, and twice the skilled people(due to lack of semicon equipment ecosystem).

In both cases, Russia and China are likely to stay non-kinetic but keep the tension high beneath the threshold of war.

Beijing Olympic(next week) prestige matters to China, as does the international introduction of the Digital Yuan(at the Olympics).

I believe we are already at war, but warfare that will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war.
Flagg,

That Sir is one of the most comprehensive and well thought out assessments at a Strategic level I have seen. Most of the time people overlook all of those real-world aspects, (and Iím putting the talking head media along with the under-informed public in the overwhelming majority here) because they have little to no real-world supply side economic understanding.

If you donít already, you need to work somewhere higher up in the food-chain of the Strategic Defense of this country.
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Old 01-26-2022, 09:38   #8
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Originally Posted by bubba View Post
Flagg,

If you donít already, you need to work somewhere higher up in the food-chain of the Strategic Defense of this country.
Concur. Sad part is that we likely have some folks who can arrive at this as well. But they're marginalized, banned, denigrated; kinda like the British analyst for Market-Garden who was trying to point out "Uh, fellas, there are some Waffen SS and Hitler Kampfgruppe Panzer formations in the area..." to no avail.

So we'd have to setup Flagg with his own podcast.
I didn't realize the extent to which Taiwan/silicon is meshed.
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Old 01-26-2022, 11:09   #9
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Lets not kid ourselves - socialism is just a softer word to hear and swallow than saying "reflections on the decent into communism"

I get it - there's always the argument that "communism and socialism are different" but that difference only exists on paper.
...and only when you are trying to convince a free people that democratic socialism is a thing.

Sure - in a glorious utopia - "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" sounds like a noble pursuit...

Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world


People can fuck right off with that bullshit.
When liars like the Bernie Bro's (and anyone else on the left for that matter) try and soft sell communism by calling it "democratic socialism" they conveniently steer people away from a few "inconvenient truths". They like to tell you that the holy rite of Democratic Socialism allows individuals to own personal property but that's bullshit - just ask all the current property owners that are being crushed economically because the government is making it near impossible to evict people that can't pay their COVID rent...

It isn't "your" property" if the government controls it.

They like to tell you that the holy rite of Democratic Socialism guarantees that industrial capacity and the tools of production are "communally owned" - really?
Am I to believe, that in our enlightened digital age, people still believe there is such a thing as "communal ownership" ???
If so - I need to borrow the car - please make sure the peoples car is gassed up before you give me the keys.
...don't forget that all of this happy equal fair inclusive communal ownership is managed by the government.

If you can't manage something - you don't own it.

They like to tell you that the holy rite of Democratic Socialism draws its magic from a democratically elected government - Forgetting to mention of course, that in such a system there tends to be a governing class which flies in the face of a freely and fairly elected government body.
...which conveniently coincides with the fact that democrats are repeatedly and zealously pursuing the ultimate goal of allowing the federal government to control elections.

Imagine - the government controls "your" property; the government manages "your" industry; the government manages "your" means of production; the government manages who gets elected; and more importantly, as you have repeatedly heard from the mouth of Joe Biden lately - it matters who gets to count the votes during government managed elections. All the while an ignorant and pliable american public continues their decent into communism under the far less threatening ruse of a humane transition to democratic socialism.


Now, let's contrast that with the more in your face version of that EXACT SAME social construct known as communism...
...all property and resources are owned and controlled by the government.

BAM

The only REAL difference is that at least communists are decent enough to say the quiet part out loud - You don't really OWN jack shit.

Well, where in the FUCK did that government come from anyway?
...if you are fucking stupid enough to believe the modern democratic party - they are being "democratically elected"

If you follow the news, that government is the same group of people from both parties that manage to consistently out-perform the market with their savvy investment knowledge.
...investment knowledge that would put anyone reading this imprison if you used the same methods.

Socialism my ass - its communism painted up like a big fat ice cream cone.
...except NONE of you mother fuckers are allowed to lick it.
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Last edited by Box; 01-26-2022 at 11:24.
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Old 01-26-2022, 15:16   #10
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Originally Posted by bubba View Post
Flagg,

That Sir is one of the most comprehensive and well thought out assessments at a Strategic level I have seen. Most of the time people overlook all of those real-world aspects, (and Iím putting the talking head media along with the under-informed public in the overwhelming majority here) because they have little to no real-world supply side economic understanding.

If you donít already, you need to work somewhere higher up in the food-chain of the Strategic Defense of this country.
Flagg,

I can only quote Bubba in agreement, nothing more to add. Finest Kind!
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Old 01-26-2022, 15:23   #11
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Originally Posted by Box View Post
Lets not kid ourselves - socialism is just a softer word to hear and swallow than saying "reflections on the decent into communism"

I get it - there's always the argument that "communism and socialism are different" but that difference only exists on paper.
...and only when you are trying to convince a free people that democratic socialism is a thing.

Sure - in a glorious utopia - "from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs" sounds like a noble pursuit...

Imagine no possessions
I wonder if you can
No need for greed or hunger
A brotherhood of man
Imagine all the people
Sharing all the world


People can fuck right off with that bullshit.
When liars like the Bernie Bro's (and anyone else on the left for that matter) try and soft sell communism by calling it "democratic socialism" they conveniently steer people away from a few "inconvenient truths". They like to tell you that the holy rite of Democratic Socialism allows individuals to own personal property but that's bullshit - just ask all the current property owners that are being crushed economically because the government is making it near impossible to evict people that can't pay their COVID rent...

It isn't "your" property" if the government controls it.

They like to tell you that the holy rite of Democratic Socialism guarantees that industrial capacity and the tools of production are "communally owned" - really?
Am I to believe, that in our enlightened digital age, people still believe there is such a thing as "communal ownership" ???
If so - I need to borrow the car - please make sure the peoples car is gassed up before you give me the keys.
...don't forget that all of this happy equal fair inclusive communal ownership is managed by the government.

If you can't manage something - you don't own it.

They like to tell you that the holy rite of Democratic Socialism draws its magic from a democratically elected government - Forgetting to mention of course, that in such a system there tends to be a governing class which flies in the face of a freely and fairly elected government body.
...which conveniently coincides with the fact that democrats are repeatedly and zealously pursuing the ultimate goal of allowing the federal government to control elections.

Imagine - the government controls "your" property; the government manages "your" industry; the government manages "your" means of production; the government manages who gets elected; and more importantly, as you have repeatedly heard from the mouth of Joe Biden lately - it matters who gets to count the votes during government managed elections. All the while an ignorant and pliable american public continues their decent into communism under the far less threatening ruse of a humane transition to democratic socialism.


Now, let's contrast that with the more in your face version of that EXACT SAME social construct known as communism...
...all property and resources are owned and controlled by the government.

BAM

The only REAL difference is that at least communists are decent enough to say the quiet part out loud - You don't really OWN jack shit.

Well, where in the FUCK did that government come from anyway?
...if you are fucking stupid enough to believe the modern democratic party - they are being "democratically elected"

If you follow the news, that government is the same group of people from both parties that manage to consistently out-perform the market with their savvy investment knowledge.
...investment knowledge that would put anyone reading this imprison if you used the same methods.

Socialism my ass - its communism painted up like a big fat ice cream cone.
...except NONE of you mother fuckers are allowed to lick it.
"When in the course of human events....."
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Old 01-26-2022, 20:10   #12
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Flagg,

That Sir is one of the most comprehensive and well thought out assessments at a Strategic level I have seen. Most of the time people overlook all of those real-world aspects, (and Iím putting the talking head media along with the under-informed public in the overwhelming majority here) because they have little to no real-world supply side economic understanding.

If you donít already, you need to work somewhere higher up in the food-chain of the Strategic Defense of this country.
Cheers!

Iím just a SGT(Reserves).

But Iíve had a fair bit of experience in semicon, Amazon, and Hacking4Defence while studying at Stanford, where I got to meet Joe Felter(one of the H4D founders) a former 1st SF Group CO and former Deputy Assistant Undersecretary of Defence for South and Southeast Asia.

One of the other H4D founders is Steve Blank(ex USAF Vietnam vet) who really kicked off the serious conversation around silicon and national security:

https://steveblank.com/2022/01/25/th...tor-ecosystem/

The third founder is Pete Newell(retired US Army Colonel who founded Rapid Equipping Force).

Iíve got a non-resident fellowship with Marine Corps University Krulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare

Iíve been published a bunch, mostly on innovation.

But I wrote this two years ago for US Army TRADOC Mad Scientist Initiative:

https://madsciblog.tradoc.army.mil/2...onment-part-1/

It seems to have aged well enough.
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Old 01-26-2022, 20:20   #13
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Concur. Sad part is that we likely have some folks who can arrive at this as well. But they're marginalized, banned, denigrated; kinda like the British analyst for Market-Garden who was trying to point out "Uh, fellas, there are some Waffen SS and Hitler Kampfgruppe Panzer formations in the area..." to no avail.

So we'd have to setup Flagg with his own podcast.
I didn't realize the extent to which Taiwan/silicon is meshed.
China will keep relentlessly pressuring Taiwan.

But CCP need to balance their desire for victory in Taiwan against their existential need for Taiwanese made and American designed advanced silicon, along with the CCPs desire to expand global network acceptance(voluntary or force fed) of the Digital Yuan.

I was a guest once a USAF podcast on innovation a few years ago when I was running courses for the ADF.

If I was to describe the Russia/Ukraine issue right now, I would use a YouTube video to explain it(oversimplified):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJ-UZ4DvYBg

MasterBlaster = Putin
Tina Turner = Germany
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Old 01-26-2022, 20:22   #14
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Flagg,

I can only quote Bubba in agreement, nothing more to add. Finest Kind!
Cheers!

Just glad I can contribute in this narrow slice on a forum community where I have learned so much.
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Old 01-27-2022, 06:58   #15
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MasterBlaster = Putin
Tina Turner = Germany
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