Wuhan Coronavirus

[Pete]

Didn't copy the link but I was reading somewhere that one of the problems with Italy was it had a much older population compared to others.

Could be a partial explanation on why their death rate was so much higher.

[Stobey]

Originally Posted by Pete

Didn't copy the link but I was reading somewhere that one of the problems with Italy was it had a much older population compared to others.

Could be a partial explanation on why their death rate was so much higher.

We, too have an older population, to which many of us belong. It will also suck for those with auto-immune disorders (such as Rheumatoid Arthritis) who, in order to remain functional, are on immuno-suppressant drugs, as well as those with heart and/or respiratory issues. The best advice: don't get sick. Avoid crowds, wash your hands often, use alcohol or alcohol gel when needing to go out (shopping, banking) - and keep your hands away from your face! (An issue for which I am constantly guilty: itchy eyes, etc.)

[Pete]

As per the attached link

Italy comes in at # 5 with a median age of 46.5.

We are # 61 with a median age of 38.5.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...s/343rank.html

[abc_123]

Priest in D.C. (Georgetown) gave communion and shook hands with parishioners (approx 500 at the service) on March 1st has tested positive.

Don't blame the Catholics. This was Episcopal.

and in other news... several schools are closing in Fulton County, GA (Atlanta) due to an teacher who has tested positive.

This flu will get real. Fast.

[Stobey]

Originally Posted by abc_123

Priest in D.C. (Georgetown) gave communion and shook hands with parishioners (approx 500 at the service) on March 1st has tested positive.

Don't blame the Catholics. This was Episcopal.

and in other news... several schools are closing in Fulton County, GA (Atlanta) due to an teacher who has tested positive.

This flu will get real. Fast.

That's what has me worried. I'm in the especially "at risk" category. So I guess no more shaking hands. It's gonna have to be the "elbow-bump" from now on.

[Badger52]

A brief glance at the Johns-Hopkins GIS tool can be an eye opener. Livin' large up in deplorable land along with those wonderful lines of General Eisenhower's baby criss-crossing the country, I only need to look at a blip in Iowa City, another couple in Mogadishu-North (MN), and a half-dozen in Chicongo to know that it can happen in einen Augenblick.

How many people make a hospital visit for some routine stuff (PT in the rehab/wellness clinic, blood test, or a quick bag of iron, etc.) and - as would be expected - are sharing the air circulated by a giant HVAC setup?

And, yeah, I read recently (someone keeps track of such things) that we tend to touch our faces approx 23 times an hour. Let's not do that, m'kay?

[mugwump]

A summary of all COVID-19 research and the recent WHO data dump from Oxford University.

Doubling time for global # of cases (incl China): 19 days
Global (excl. China): 5 days

Global CFR: 3.5%
China CFR: 3.9%
Global (excl. China): 2.4%

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

[InTheBlack]

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-persp...vid-19-viruses

Study highlights ease of spread of COVID-19 viruses
Mar 09, 2020

COVID-19 can be spread before it causes symptoms, when it produces symptoms like those of the common cold, and as many as 12 days after recovery, according to a virologic analysis of nine infected patients published today on the preprint server medRxiv.

Also, in a study published in today's Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at Johns Hopkins found a median incubation period for COVID-19 of 5.1 days—similar to that of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

Virus concentrates quickly, sheds efficiently
Led by researchers in Germany, the virologic study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, found that the novel coronavirus quickly begins producing high viral loads, sheds efficiently, and grows well in the upper respiratory tract (nose, mouth, nasal cavity, and throat).

"Shedding of viral RNA from sputum outlasted the end of symptoms," the authors wrote. "These findings suggest adjustments of current case definitions and re-evaluation of the prospects of outbreak containment."

The nine patients, who were admitted to the same Munich hospital, were studied because they had had close contact with an index case. Cell cultures and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were done on throat swabs and samples of sputum, stool, blood, and urine. Throat swabs showed very high viral shedding during the first week of symptoms.

The findings contrasted starkly with those from the 2003 outbreak of SARS in terms of viral load. "In SARS, it took 7 to 10 days after onset until peak RNA concentrations (of up to 5x105 copies per swab) were reached," the researchers wrote. "In the present study, peak concentrations were reached before day 5, and were more than 1,000 times higher."
...

Social distancing to prevent infection
Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, which publishes CIDRAP News, said that the results challenge the World Health Organization's assertion that COVID-19 can be contained.

The findings confirm that COVID-19 is spread simply through breathing, even without coughing, he said. They also challenge the idea that contact with contaminated surfaces is a primary means of spread, Osterholm said.

"Don't forget about hand washing, but at the same time we've got to get people to understand that if you don't want to get infected, you can't be in crowds," he said. "Social distancing is the most effective tool we have right now."

[T-Rock]

Here's a study published in the Lancet that details some of the things they found throughout the course of the disease process. Lancet maps out the clinical factors for survival and major clinical courses of symptoms. Also noteworthy: viral shedding lasted 8-37 days......

"Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan, China: a retrospective cohort study"
Link: https://www.thelancet.com/lancet/art...736(20)30566-3

[Badger52]

Over the last 24 hours I've noticed a major change in the way the Johns-Hopkins tool displays its information. Previously, the blips (cumulative confirmed or active) were on the map relatively close to where they actually were. Now, it's as if one blip for a state (maybe 2 for the big populations) is sufficient to indicate that "Yep, we've got (or had) the virus here."

It makes the number of dots less (by design?), and may also be misleading & alarming to some when those that are there suddenly pop up in the wrong location.

[InTheBlack]

total of 62,000 ventilators in the USA, (as of several years ago?)
- NBC news medical guy, Today Show, 7:15AM TUE 10MAR20

[T-Rock]

I see now why their whole country is now under quarantine.....

From Jason Van Schoor, Registrar in Anaesthesia & ICM | NIHR UCL Academic Clinical Fellow. London, England:
"...
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:

1/*‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.*

2/*First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.*

3/*The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity*

4/*We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.*

5/*Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.*

6/*My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.*

7/*We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:*..."

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...077697538.html


https://www.cochranelibrary.com/search

Jason Van Schoor from the Cochrane Library link:
Division of Surgery & Interventional Science, Royal Free NHS Trust Hospital, University College London, London, UK

[T-Rock]

"...8/*1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great*

9/*3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.*

10/*Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,*

11/*if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.*

12/*Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.*

13/*We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare.*..."

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...077697538.html

[InTheBlack]

So this Italian is writing in English. I don't understand the last sentence at all. Sounds like he's saying to stay away from your family, but teach them how to intubate each other?

>

11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.

>

[Pete]

The first big news out of WA State was the 29th of February based on info from the 28th.

11 days so far.