Continued...
Blowback
Mexico’s various cartels long have used the Internet to trumpet their triumphs on the battlefield and to taunt and even degrade their enemies. The cartels have posted videos of the torture, execution and desecration of the corpses of rivals. They also frequently monitor narcoblogs and sometimes even post on them. As demonstrated by the September blogger killings in Nuevo Laredo, Los Zetas appear to possess at least some rudimentary capability to trace online activity to people in the physical world. They are known to employ their own team of dedicated cyber experts and to have sources within the Mexican government.
In addition to technical intelligence, the Zetas can use old-fashioned human intelligence to track down their online enemies. People sometimes discuss their online identities with family and friends, and such information can be overheard and passed to Los Zetas in return for money. This danger was recognized in the Oct. 31 video from Anonymous that urges participants in their campaign not to discuss their activities with anyone.
In past Anonymous actions, like the December 2010 attack against PayPal after the WikiLeaks scandal broke, the U.S. and British governments arrested numerous individuals associated with Anonymous who allegedly participated in the attacks. In June 2011, Turkey arrested dozens of activists associated with Anonymous actions conducted against the Turkish government in response to its plan to establish a national Internet-filtering system. This indicates that some activists associated with Anonymous are not nearly as anonymous as they would like to be. Every action on the Internet leaves some sort of trail, making it very difficult to be truly anonymous.
Like other Mexican cartels, Los Zetas do not take affronts lightly. Even if Anonymous cannot provide information that damages Los Zetas smuggling operations, the very fact that the collective has decided publicly to challenge Los Zetas will result in some sort of response. The big question is whether the Zetas possess the capability to trace the organizers of the Anonymous action?
One challenge with tracking an entity such as Anonymous is that it is intentionally amorphous. It is also as transnational as the Internet, and it would be unsurprising if many of those chosen to participate in the operation against Los Zetas are located in the United Sates, Europe and other areas that are outside the Zetas’ immediate reach.
The amorphous nature of Anonymous can also cut the other way, however. If Los Zetas abduct and execute random patrons at an Internet cafe, behead them and place Guy Fawkes masks on their heads, it will be very difficult to prove that they were not associated with Anonymous. Los Zetas also could execute random people and claim they had provided Anonymous with information in order to intimidate people from actually cooperating with Anonymous. As Anonymous noted in its Oct. 31 video, this is dangerous business indeed.
The Big Picture
How the Mexican public reacts to the Anonymous operation must be watched. The criminal cartels and their violence have deeply affected many people in Mexico’s middle and upper classes. STRATFOR talks to many people in Mexico who fear that they or a family member will be kidnapped. In many communities, especially places like Ciudad Juarez, Torreon, Monterrey and Veracruz, businessmen find themselves in a terrible bind. They face ever-increasing extortion demands from the cartels while their business revenues dwindle because the violence associated with those same cartels has frightened people into not going out. This is forcing many small businesses to close. It also is creating a great deal of frustration and resentment.
At the same time, Mexico has become one of the most dangerous countries in the world for journalists, and many media organizations practice heavy self-censorship to protect themselves. In the wake of the September blogger killings, some of the narcoblogs, like Blog del Narco, have exhibited strong signs of self-censorship inspired by fear. As a result, many Mexicans believe the mainstream media are not of any real assistance in the face of cartel violence.
Mexican citizens also are frustrated with their government, which, as noted, is well-known for corruption. This sentiment is feeding Anonymous’ original campaign in Veracruz. This frustration even has led some people to begin discussing the creation of vigilante groups to fight the cartels — though this has been attempted before in Mexico. As we saw in the case of La Familia Michoacana, which began as such a vigilante group, vigilantism frequently does not end well.
This is where Anonymous may fit in. With Mexican citizens unable to rely on their government, the media or even armed vigilante groups for assistance, they may embrace Anonymous, coming to view its form of cybervigilantism as an outlet for their frustration. If Anonymous is perceived as a safe way to pass information pertaining to cartel activities, we may see people from all over the country begin to share intelligence. Such human intelligence could very well prove to be far more damaging to the cartels than any information Anonymous activists can dredge up electronically. As this operation is becoming more widely publicized, the pool of people outside Mexico who might wish to participate will likely grow. The number of people inside Mexico who wish to provide information might grow as well.
Anonymous has taken on many powerful entities in the past, such as major transnational corporations and governments. But the repercussions from participating in such operations were never as grave for online activists as they are in this case. Being identified and detained by Scotland Yard or the FBI is a far different situation than being identified and detained by Los Zetas.
Anonymous vs. Zetas Amid Mexico's Cartel Violence is republished with permission of STRATFOR.