Wuhan Coronavirus

[mugwump]

The celestials have confirmed fecal, surface, aerosol, airborne xmission. Everything except teleportation. It almost sounds like a bioweapon. Surface survival period is unknown/not released, but they consider every public surface infectious. PLA wearing PPE are marching shoulder to shoulder spraying disinfectant in cities.

Viruses usually survive better under colder less humid conditions—winter. Wash hands like a mofo.

This is an 18-24 month marathon, not a sprint. Best case in the US now, IMO only, will be numerous small 100 case hotspots that are controlled. Worst case is bad.

In countries with less robust health systems (Asia/Africa/S and Central America <cough Mexico>) there will likely be 2-3 pandemic waves over 18-24 months before it burns through every naive human. At least that’s what past pandemics show. Who knows what the mind of man hath wrought with this engineered little beauty. Then it’ll settle into something like the seasonal flu.

In Africa the number of available test kits number in the hundred I shit you not and only 2 countries can test at all. I stopped reading before I learned the country names.

[mugwump]

If this does break out and hordes of desperate Mexicans swarm toward the border seeking medical care, like a rich commie fleeing to HK, I wonder if we'll shoot.

[InTheBlack]

My new Big Box Medicine doctor (my 20 year guy retired) will not give me the HiB or Pneumovax shots. Says they don't even stock the HiB. Mumbles something about "have to follow CDC Guidelines." Idiot.

So where the hell does one look, before the meds are controlled by govt fiat? Local health department maybe?

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

My new Big Box Medicine doctor (my 20 year guy retired) will not give me the HiB or Pneumovax shots. Says they don't even stock the HiB. Mumbles something about "have to follow CDC Guidelines." Idiot.

So where the hell does one look, before the meds are controlled by govt fiat? Local health department maybe?

Lol I get my vaccinations at Walgreens. Try them or CVS. My PA Laurie sends me there, cheaper. She’s a peach. Sharp as a tack and the only person I let put their finger up my butt. If I see an MD it’s ruh roh, I just turned ‘complicated’.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

Tencent is a huge tech company... Not convinced they would possess the "real" numbers. Certainly the grunt typing in the web page numbers won't be given the data. Most likely input errors.

Yup, Tencent owns WeChat.

Chinese citizens pretty much need WeChat for essential functions in China.

Penetration is pretty much universal at 1 billion users, covering everyone bar young children and the aged.

[TWITCHY]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Doubt they’re entry errors. I think it’s 1) misinformation or 2) real data. I saw one of the earlier ‘leaked’ screenshots and it was consistent with case projections curves from epidemiologists using a Ro of 3ish I believe. The ‘official’ numbers are all suspiciously low.

Whoever is doing this is risking their freedom/life. It’s entirely reasonable to assume someone who does know the official numbers is collaborating with a Tencent techie.

Caveat: I’m not a virologist or epidemiologist. I spent a good deal of time chatting back and forth with a Dr. James Wilson, CEO of M2 Medical Intelligence, on LinkedIn. Apparently, his company provides consultation and analysis to “clients”. He argues that China has been forthright and exemplary in their response to the situation. My questions primarily focused on the fact that we have no reason to trust China on this and based on their actions, alone, shouldn’t we assume it is much worse than the lowball numbers being disseminated?. I even provided the Tencent link to him for consideration. He questioned its authenticity, which we should all be hesitant to accept as fact.

Running his business for “clients” (could be multinational companies, etc) I’m sure requires him to present as stable of an analysis as possible; however, I find it foolhardy and dangerous to to assume China is being truthful or that they are a model to follow. Maybe I’m cynical, but one only need look to the CCP treatment of Uighurs, Christians, political dissidents, and student protesters to know that they do NOT give a damn about people’s lives.

I’ve appreciated your information and outlook on this. Thanks.

ETA: If you’re interested, here are links to his company site and LinkedIn. https://www.m2medintel.com/
http://linkedin.com/in/jamesmwilsonv

[Divemaster]

This website shows the location where all the Hong Kong cases (21 now) have stayed in the past 14 days.

https://chp-dashboard.geodata.gov.hk/nia/en.html

However, there is not a dot for each case. This indicates either multiple cases in some buildings, or incomplete data. Unknown is how many other buildings/locations each infected person entered while infectious.

One location was the Four Seasons hotel in Central, the main business area of the city. Obviously, this hotel is full of people traveling internationally.

The website also provides basic info on each patient, age, sex, date of hospitalization.

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Lol I get my vaccinations at Walgreens. Try them or CVS.

No, HiB and Pneumovax require a prescription.
And the pharmacist can't explain to me the difference between Pneumovax 13 and Pneumovax 23, and why the 13 is given a year after the 23.

Even the county health dept says "HiB is for children." Dunno how to enforce my right to choose my own medical care.

[PedOncoDoc]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

No, HiB and Pneumovax require a prescription.
And the pharmacist can't explain to me the difference between Pneumovax 13 and Pneumovax 23, and why the 13 is given a year after the 23.

Even the county health dept says "HiB is for children." Dunno how to enforce my right to choose my own medical care.

On our re-vaccination schedules we typically give the 13-valent earlier than the 23 valent - the 13 vs 23 is number of strains of pneumococcus for which antigens are included in the vaccine - those in the 13 are not entirely redundant in the 23-valent vaccine.

HiB was a major cause of infant meningitis and subsequent hearing loss prior to vaccination.

[InTheBlack]

Health Dept says they can only give the HiB vaccine up to 5 years old.
WTF?
I'm OLD, and it didn't exist when I was 5 years old !!!

Now looking for an MD who takes cash for service...

[InTheBlack]

https://time.com/5777541/coronavirus...-ebola-doctor/

Panic swept through New York City in fall 2014 when Dr. Craig Spencer became the first person in the giant metropolis to be diagnosed with Ebola. The physician had contracted the deadly disease while helping sick patients in the hard-hit West African country of Guinea as a volunteer.

Spencer, 38, [NOW] the director of global health in emergency medicine at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center.

snip

Now, amid another public health emergency as the novel coronavirus outbreak spreads internationally, Spencer says the U.S. is less prepared for a pandemic now than at the end of the Ebola outbreak, and he fears racism and xenophobia will worsen the crisis.

“It’s worrisome,” Spencer tells TIME, echoing experts who’ve expressed concerns about the Trump administration’s ability, and willingness, to ensure there are enough financial and other resources available to fight a pandemic. “We’re in trouble.”

snip

Spencer stresses that influenza is far deadlier than the coronavirus. The flu has killed up to 61,000 people annually since 2010, according to the CDC. But Spencer understands the grip fear can have on a person, because he’s experienced it himself.

[InTheBlack]

Seems to have an "emergency medicine" RSS feed, and obviously others... not sure how to work it but there is a Search box...

https://medworm.com/

[Divemaster]

Anyway, back to 2019nCoV. Hong Kong is up to 24 confirmed cases now. The word I'm hearing on the number of cases from the mainland just outside one of the open border crossings to HK is, putting it mildly, not good.

[bblhead672]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

https://time.com/5777541/coronavirus...-ebola-doctor/

Panic swept through New York City in fall 2014 when Dr. Craig Spencer became the first person in the giant metropolis to be diagnosed with Ebola. The physician had contracted the deadly disease while helping sick patients in the hard-hit West African country of Guinea as a volunteer.

Spencer, 38, [NOW] the director of global health in emergency medicine at New York-Presbyterian/Columbia University Medical Center.

snip

Now, amid another public health emergency as the novel coronavirus outbreak spreads internationally, Spencer says the U.S. is less prepared for a pandemic now than at the end of the Ebola outbreak, and he fears racism and xenophobia will worsen the crisis.

“It’s worrisome,” Spencer tells TIME, echoing experts who’ve expressed concerns about the Trump administration’s ability, and willingness, to ensure there are enough financial and other resources available to fight a pandemic. “We’re in trouble.”

snip

Spencer stresses that influenza is far deadlier than the coronavirus. The flu has killed up to 61,000 people annually since 2010, according to the CDC. But Spencer understands the grip fear can have on a person, because he’s experienced it himself.

Spencer's panties remain ruffled because of citizen Trump's remarks about his activities before showing symptoms of Ebola.
Had Trump been POTUS then and required a 2-3 week quarantine of anyone returning from countries with Ebola outbreaks, Spencer probably wouldn't have liked that either.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by TWITCHY

Caveat: He questioned its authenticity, which we should all be hesitant to accept as fact.

There is no disputing that this could be Taiwanese nationalists spreading disinformation. They’d have to be damn good hackers to get into Tencent, though, which has a reputation for airtight security. That said, anything is possible.

The xenophobia/racism narrative among public health types seems linked to Trump derangement syndrome. Rarely will you see ‘racism’ mentioned without Trump in the same sentence.

Their only basis for believing Chinese stats is faith. They believe because they believe. I’ve watched Chinese nationals lie, cheat, and steal entire corporate research databases from under the noses of gormless American tech groups for years. My baseline position now is incredulity. It’s not race based, it’s culture based.

Given the risk to freedom and life, it’s hard to discount leaks coming out of China.

Nobody knows, is the bottom line. Just as Wall Street quants use satellite imagery to count Chinese lights at night because no one trusts their gdp numbers, there are all sorts of secondary stats that people are using to try to get a handle on the true impact of the pandemic, including the use of satellite imagery for counting reefer trucks pulling up to crematoria. I’m just and chillin', nothing much else to do.